“木头姐”炉边对话:她这么看比特币、AI、ETF及比特币未来价格

币圈资讯 阅读:28 2024-04-22 07:27:45 评论:0
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本文为HashKey Singapore负责人HashKey Capital CEO DC、ARK Invest首席执行官兼首席投资官Cathie Wood在香港Web3嘉年华上的圆桌对话。

DC:各位早上好!(对于今天的圆桌对话)我感受到一点压力,但也非常开心非常兴奋,我来自HashKey Capital,我们公司是Web3行业里一线的机构投资方,资产管理规模(AUM)超10亿美元,被投项目500+,2015年开始在新加坡正式展业。

今天的圆桌我们邀请到了Cathie Wood,她在投资领域有多年的经验,非常高兴她能加入我们。在深入讨论之前想先问一下Cathie,您要不要跟大家问个好?

Cathie Wood:非常高兴能参与今天的圆桌对话,很遗憾我不能亲自到现场,但我非常荣幸能够受邀参加今天的大会。刚刚听到很多香港官员们、重要领导们的谈话,对此我受到了很大的鼓舞,希望今天我也可以给大家带来一些来自美国的观点和视野。

DC:今天邀请的嘉宾都是来自区块链生态、金融科技领域的专家,Cathie会给我们带来关于主流风向和最新趋势的预测。

我想问一下,过去几年,Ark Investment的大方向是什么?在未来还会怎样影响区块链里单一的业务或个人?

Cathie Wood:这是个很大的问题,在过去几年可以看到比特币、区块链技术逐步成熟,我想这是非常宏大的概念。为什么我说这是非常大的概念呢?因为从比特币角度出发的互联网金融体系都是互相相关的,整个系统在1990年互联网初期是没有被考量到的。

现在的E-commerce、金融体系方方面面都开始受到了Web3的影响。目前最主要看到的影响是,现在有很多发展都还在非常初级的阶段,它是需要全球一起来发展的市场,是跨边界的,也会触及到每个人。只要有网络,你就可以成为一员。

如今非常令人振奋的是(Web3)已经有雏形慢慢成型了,比如说生成式AI的推波助澜,类似上世纪电话、电视等发明陆续出现。通过技术可以大量提升产能和收入,也可以有更好的方式来生活,大家能有更好的方式去享受人生和私人时间,让每个人醒着的时候效能大大提高。

从2010年30%、40%的占比,我们在未来5-10年会更大量地做更好的配置。数字资产在过去几年逐渐向主流开展,除了比特币以外,还有其他的“数字资产”,不只是在牛市时可以做得更好,还可以帮我们避险。过去的区域银行在经历危机时表现不是那么好,反而比特币增长了40%。今年更看到了发展中国家的货币贬值越来越不值钱,但反而比特币的价值有持续上扬的趋势。有更多全世界个人理解到了比特币的真实意义,而且(比特币)具有非常抗压、抗贬值的特质。

DC:接下来咱们继续谈谈AI,AI现在是硅谷非常火的话题,也在香港引起了广泛的关注。

你觉得AI未来怎么通过技术整合到区块链里,在Web3里会有什么样的影响?

Cathie Wood:你的问题非常好,我们每个月会有比特币头脑风暴的活动,在谈到AI跟比特币整合时也做了Podcast分享,我们认为大家会学到所谓的互联网经济,不管是Uber也好,Airbnb也好,有很多在亚洲的土地上落地开花。在未来大家会慢慢看到它的好处,尤其是对于发展中国家来说,比如非洲,它会带来非常快速的改变。

同时也看到了区块链技术跟游戏将更大程度受到AI技术的推动和推广,这是非常有趣的领域。前些天我在新闻上看到了索尼在游戏方面所做的投资,以及Polygon在Blockchain的投资,可以看到有越来越多的资金会在这个领域里注入。

比如NFL的NFLRivals以及Polkadot,会有越来越多游戏项目将AI技术、区块链技术整合在一起,创造出更多有趣的产品。英伟达在2014年时非常认真地在开展这块,可以看到英伟达的GPU跟Gaming的整合,已经有了成功的案例,对此我非常有信心,在未来它绝对会是发展的主要领域。

AI核心的精神就是希望能给予我们更快速的处理能力,游戏又总是走在时代的尖端,在游戏领域里体现出来的成效是指日可待的。

之前我参加了一个很有名的大会,在比特币迈阿密,谈到了以后会有越来越多的人投入到虚拟市场,而且把它跟现有的创意结合在一起,而非只是纯粹地做虚拟货币交易而已。在“F1”里可以看到越来越多的区块链技术会注入当中,会有越来越多的使用者加入我们。

DC:我们现在把方向转回虚拟资产,再一次恭喜你,ArkInvest的Bitcoin Spot ETF成功上市,你认为对于数字资产ETF行业来说,最重要的里程碑是什么?ETF超过了50亿美元?还是有什么样明确的成长指标可以作为里程碑?

Cathie Wood:很多人都很惊讶,过去五年欧洲就可以做交易了,但他们从来没有像美国这样突然暴冲的状况,在美国总是有很多戏剧性事件的发生,大家也知道最近美国的诉讼,从监管角度来看SEC等美国监管机构只要碰到Crypto,只要碰到虚拟,就非常抵触,所以诉讼让我们迈进很大的一步,慢慢让美国的监管机构理解到虚拟货币、比特币是可以安全交易的,在某个程度上可以受到规范且进行安全交易,这次他们一共批了11个ETF项目,这是从来没有发生过的一件事,在历史上也是第一次,所以我们开始尽我们最大的努力做市场营销、做投资者教育,给予投资人更多教育方面的培育培训,让他们更加理解怎么样在里面进行操作。

像在美国有非常非常多客户也开始意识到了即使是完全不一样的资产领域类别也是可以投入的,也有越来越多机构和投资方愿意把钱真正放进来,因为这个资产领域跟其他领域可以对冲,不挂钩,当然比特币也有风险,也有牛市和熊市的时候,但不像其他货币(黄金)可以跟很多因素而挂钩,比特币怎么可以单独独立出来有自己的走势?因为它有资产独立性,如果你把它放在资产商品组合里,因为它不跟其他东西挂钩,可以通过这样的方法增加资产回报率,分摊掉更多风险。

对于低挂钩的产品,对于美国某些投资人来讲是有极大兴趣的,他们愿意尝试。

DC:是的,非常开心在香港有开放透明的政府领导主导产业发展,而且给了很多很好的政策。我想听下你的建议,你对于亚洲Web3社群有什么样的建言?对于监管方、对于投资机构以及对亚洲和香港市场有什么建议?

Cathie Wood:我觉得你们非常了不起,香港的监管机构比如SFC做的非常好,提供了很全面的管理架构,让虚拟资产商品可以交易,而且有很多对于机构监管的方法和机制。监管透明度对于产业的开展、对于技术的开展是至关重要的,也让技术发展更加有底气。

香港跟美国很不一样,香港开展快很多,我常常在全球性的金融会议里谈到这一点,可以说政策方面,香港是“领头羊”,非常鼓励创新科技的开展,也鼓励企业家的投入,跟政府互相合作的体系给了机构很好的模范和典范。

即便在美国有很多不明确性,但在香港看到了如何将很多资产货币代币化,如何非常快速地应对市场需求。对我们来说是非常好的借鉴,香港的监管机构真的起到了非常好的牵头、领头、模范的作用,也让企业借着这样的底气在全球发展(业务),非常高兴也非常恭喜香港的发展。

在刚刚开讲之前我谈到了我的仰慕,也听到了其他香港官员提出的非常好的政策。对我们来讲是非常好的学习,这很重要,也是我的真心话,因为健康、稳定的环境对创新技术产业的开展,对投资人,对消费者保护是至关重要的。

我也鼓励美国能效仿,美国目前面临了监管的不确定性及区块链领域的人才外溢,如果监管方能更好地对待从业者,给他们更多清晰度、更多自由就会让我们看到更好的结果。

我的建议是借助你们在监管上的经验,提供给创业者更好的到全球扩展的机会。

DC:谢谢Cathie,我最后问一个价值“百万美金”的问题,也是在座的大家都关心的问题,比特币的价格会怎么发展呢?听了很多数字的预测,想听一下你的意见,有人说150万美元,有人说230万美元,也有人说380万美元一个比特币,Cathie,你目前的预测是什么?时间线会是多久?

Cathie Wood:我从不同的角度都被问过这个问题,我们从多个角度分析的结果是,2030 年比特币将涨至 150 万美元,该价格预测来自于一个关于机构的调查,使用了下浮比率与波动分析。此前对比特币在 2030 年的价格预测是 60 万美元,但比特币现货 ETF 的通过将促使比特币价格在 2030 年达到 150 万美元。

如果去年我给你这个数字,当时可能更接近60万美元,为什么把60万的数字加到150万之上呢?因为SEC证监会给了“绿灯”,为主流机构批准了现货比特币ETF的发行。如果你根据现代的投资组合理论来分配资产的话,5%的资产分配到比特币的话,会让我们得到150万美元的估计数字,因为我们觉得投资机构会朝着这个方向发展。

DC:感谢Cathie,让大家都知道了150万美元每个比特币的价格预估,以上就是炉边对话的最后环节,感谢Cathie为我们提供有洞见且有趣的现场讨论,大家再见,也把掌声再次送给Cathie。


This article is the round-table dialogue of the chief executive officer and chief investment officer at the Hong Kong Carnival. Good morning, everyone. I feel a little pressure for today's round-table dialogue, but I am also very happy and very excited. I come from our company, which is a front-line institutional investor in the industry. The asset management scale has exceeded 100 million US dollars. The project started to officially exhibit in Singapore in the year of investment. Today's round table, we invited her to have many years of experience in the investment field. I am very happy that she can join us. I want to ask you before we discuss it in depth. Do you want to say hello to everyone? I'm very happy to participate in today's round-table dialogue. It's a pity that I can't be there in person, but I'm very honored to be invited to attend today's conference. I've just heard a lot of talks from important leaders of Hong Kong officials, and I'm greatly encouraged by this. I hope I can also bring you some views and visions from the United States today. The guests invited today are experts from the blockchain ecological finance technology field, which will bring us predictions about the mainstream wind direction and the latest trends. I would like to ask what is the general direction in the past few years and how it will affect a single business or individual in the blockchain in the future. This is a big problem. In the past few years, we can see that bitcoin blockchain technology has gradually matured. I think this is a very grand concept. Why do I say this is a very big concept? Because the Internet financial system from the perspective of bitcoin is interrelated, the whole system was not considered in the early days of the Internet in, and now all aspects of the financial system are beginning to be affected. At present, the main impact is that many developments are still in a very early stage. It needs the global development. The market is cross-border and will touch everyone. As long as you have the network, you can become a member. Now it is very exciting that it has taken shape, such as the generative push, and inventions like telephone and television in the last century have emerged one after another. Through technology, you can greatly increase production capacity and income, and you can have a better way to live. A good way to enjoy life and private time can greatly improve everyone's efficiency when they are awake. From the proportion of last year, we will do more and better allocation of digital assets in the future. In the past few years, there are other digital assets besides Bitcoin, which can not only do better in the bull market, but also help us avoid risks. In the past, regional banks did not perform so well in the crisis. On the contrary, Bitcoin has increased and this year we have seen the currency depreciation of developing countries increasing. It's worthless, but on the contrary, the value of Bitcoin is on the rise. More individuals all over the world understand the true meaning of Bitcoin, and Bitcoin has the characteristics of being very resistant to pressure and depreciation. Next, let's continue to talk about the hot topic in Silicon Valley, which has also aroused widespread concern in Hong Kong. What do you think will happen in the future through the integration of technology into the blockchain? Your question is very good. We will have brainstorming activities on Bitcoin every month. When talking about the integration with Bitcoin, We also shared it. We think everyone will learn about the so-called Internet economy, whether it is good or not. Many of them will blossom on the land of Asia. In the future, everyone will gradually see its benefits, especially for developing countries, such as Africa. At the same time, we also see that blockchain technology and games will be promoted and popularized to a greater extent by technology. This is a very interesting field. I saw Sony's investment in games and its investment in the news the other day. It can be seen that more and more funds will be injected into this field, for example, and more and more game projects will integrate technology blockchain technology to create more interesting products. NVIDIA was very serious in developing this integration that can see NVIDIA's heel, and there have been successful cases. I am very confident that it will definitely be the main field of development in the future. The core spirit is to hope to give us faster processing ability, and games are always in the times. The effect of cutting-edge in the game field is just around the corner. Before I attended a famous conference in Bitcoin Miami, I talked about that in the future, more and more people will invest in the virtual market and combine it with existing ideas instead of just doing virtual currency transactions. In the park, we can see that more and more blockchain technologies will be injected, and more and more users will join us. Now we will turn our direction back to virtual assets and congratulate you on your success again. What do you think is the most important milestone for the digital asset industry? What are the clear growth indicators that can be used as milestones? Many people are surprised that transactions can be done in Europe in the past five years, but they have never been so sudden and violent as in the United States. There are always many dramatic events in the United States. Everyone knows that the recent lawsuits in the United States are very contradictory from the regulatory point of view, so the lawsuits are made. We took a big step forward and slowly let American regulators understand that the virtual currency Bitcoin can be safely traded, and to some extent, it can be regulated and traded safely. This time, they approved a project, which has never happened before, and it is also the first time in history, so we began to do our best to do marketing, investor education, and give investors more education and training, so that they can better understand how to operate in it, like in the United States. Many customers have begun to realize that even completely different asset categories can be invested, and more and more institutions and investors are willing to really put money in because this asset field can be hedged and not linked with other fields. Of course, Bitcoin also has risks and bull and bear markets, but unlike other currencies, gold can be linked to many factors. How can Bitcoin be independent and have its own trend because it has asset independence? If you put it in. In the asset-commodity portfolio, because it is not linked to other things, we can increase the return on assets and share more risks in this way. For products with low linkage, some investors in the United States are very interested. They are willing to try. Yes, they are very happy. In Hong Kong, there are open and transparent government leaders leading industrial development and many good policies. I want to hear your suggestions. What kind of advice do you have for the Asian community? What suggestions do you have for regulators, investment institutions and markets in Asia and Hong Kong? 比特币今日价格行情网_okx交易所app_永续合约_比特币怎么买卖交易_虚拟币交易所平台

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