越下跌:喜爱越多

币圈资讯 阅读:40 2024-04-22 04:06:45 评论:0
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原创:刘教链

人有悲欢离合,月有阴晴圆缺,币有上下涨跌,此事古难全。

BTC(比特币)的5日均线被价格带动向下穿过30日均线时,多头放弃了对30日均线防守支撑的幻想。被压弯的30日均线,似乎眼看着就要从上升趋势转入下跌趋势。多头盼望着市场能够奋力给予向上一击,但是这并不是重点。

重点在于空头对于下跌的预期有多高。这个预期要酝酿,要发酵,要推到一个够高的水平。非如此空头不会信心满满,非如此空头不会疯狂做空,非如此空头不会加倍上杠杆。向上突刺是有成本的,这个成本只有在能够爆破掉足够多的空头仓位时才是划算的。

开多,拉升,爆空,平多。其中关键就在于“爆空”。

反过来也是一样。

预期上涨的希望有多强烈,市场反手一巴掌扇得就有多响亮。

目前的难题是,现在是熊市,还是牛市?是牛市的开头,还是牛市的结局?

一千个人眼里有一千个各不相同的哈姆雷特。一千个人嘴里也有一千个各不相同的答案。

在这个时空中,现在是跨过“2021前高”,牛市的起点。在另一个平行时空中,现在不过是熊市复苏刚过半程。就像2019年1万多刀,不过是2017年顶部2万刀的半程。

扪心自问,你是喜欢上涨,还是喜欢下跌?

如果一个资产,比如BTC,你只喜爱它的上涨,却不喜爱它的下跌,那么这只说明一个问题,你并不懂它。

对于任何一个资产都是如此。

在2021年中的那个牛市腰斩之后的6月,印象中几乎所有人都在传播“牛市终结论”,引用霍华德·马克斯的话:「如果价格进一步下跌,你对它的喜爱应该会进一步加深。如果你不习惯于这一点,那么你还是改行吧。」

霍华德还说:「你必须了解内在价值,你必须足够自信,坚定持有并不断买进,即使价格已经跌到似乎暗示你做错了的时候。」

当然,他还补充道:「你必须是正确的。」

有两类经典的错误:第一类是不敢逢跌加仓。第二类是把逢跌加仓用错了地方。

追涨杀跌比特币。「顶部加仓,底部割肉,回本止盈」。是第一类错误。

逢跌加仓山寨币。越跌越买,坚定持有,长线套牢。这是第二类错误。

列宁说得好:只要再多走一小步,仿佛是向同一方向迈的一小步,真理便会变成谬误。

在成功和失败的辩证法上,人们争论不休。

一些人说:失败是成功之母。失败的教训弥足珍贵。成功者各有各的成功诀窍,但是失败的坑都是类似的。只要提前预知,小心规避,就能抵达成功。

另一些人说:科学研究表明,创业成功过的人,再次创业成功的概率会远大于没有成功经验的人。所以,成功的经历才是最重要的。

毕竟,一把赚1000%,也远不如可重复的赚10%来的有威力。

10%重复25次就能超过1000%。

如果每一次逢跌加仓,都是一次成功的加仓。那么,最终的成功,就是坚如磐石的了。


The original Liu Jiao chain people have joys and sorrows, and the moon is sunny and rainy, and the coins are short of ups and downs. It is hard to understand that the average line of Bitcoin is driven by the price. When it crosses the average line, the bulls give up the illusion of defensive support for the average line. The bent average line seems to be about to turn from an upward trend to a downward trend. The bulls hope that the market can strive to give an upward blow, but this is not the point. The key point is how high the expectations of the bears for the decline are. This expectation should be brewed and fermented and pushed to a high enough level. Such short positions will not be full of confidence, so short positions will not be crazy, so short positions will not be doubled, and there is a cost. This cost is only cost-effective when enough short positions can be exploded. The key lies in the fact that the short positions are exploded, and vice versa. How strong is the hope of expected rise, and how loud is the backhand slap of the market? The current problem is whether it is a bear market or a bull market, the beginning or the end of a bull market. There are a thousand different Hamlets, and there are a thousand different answers in the mouths of a thousand people. In this time and space, it is now the starting point of crossing the previous high bull market. In another parallel time and space, it is just the middle of the bear market recovery, just like the annual recovery of more than 10,000 yuan is just the half of the annual top ten thousand yuan. Ask yourself whether you like to rise or fall. If an asset, for example, you only like its rise but don't like its fall, it only shows a problem that you don't understand it for any asset. It's all the same. In the impression of the month after the bull market halved in the middle of the year, almost everyone is spreading the conclusion of the bull market. If the price falls further, your love for it should be further deepened. If you are not used to this, then you should change careers. Howard also said that you must understand the intrinsic value. You must be confident enough to hold it firmly and keep buying, even if the price has fallen to a point that seems to imply that you are doing something wrong. Of course, he added that you must be right in two ways. Classic mistakes: the first kind is that you dare not add positions on rallies; the second kind is that you use the wrong place to chase up and kill bitcoin; the first kind is to add positions on rallies; the second kind is to cut the meat at the bottom to take profit; the second kind is that you add positions on rallies; the second kind is that Lenin put it well; as long as you take one more small step, it seems like a small step in the same direction, the truth will become fallacy; on the dialectics of success and failure, people argue endlessly; some people say that failure is the mother of success; the lessons of failure are precious. Your successful people have their own secrets to success, but the pits of failure are all similar. You can reach success as long as you predict in advance and avoid it carefully. Others say that scientific research shows that people who have succeeded in starting a business will have a much higher probability of success in starting a business again than those who have no successful experience, so the successful experience is the most important. After all, a profit is far less powerful than that earned by repetition. If every ups and downs is a successful increase, then the final success will be rock-solid. 比特币今日价格行情网_okx交易所app_永续合约_比特币怎么买卖交易_虚拟币交易所平台

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