新的加密货币牛市:为什么这次不同?

币圈资讯 阅读:33 2024-04-22 04:00:09 评论:0
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一些根本性的差异,以及它们对 2024 年和 2025 年牛市的惊人影响。

当我们接近本轮牛市的第四或第五局时,我开始注意到与 2021 年牛市的一些根本差异。这些变化正在构建一个非常不同的基础结构,牛市将在此基础上构建,并且它们正在改变市场轨迹。

这一次确实会有所不同,并且从这些差异中可以得出一些意想不到的结论。这次牛市的展开方式正在为一段非常独特的旅程做好准备,其目的地是大多数人意想不到的……绝不是之前周期的镜像。

两个巨大的差异及其含义:

#1——这是一个卖方(项目)市场,风险投资生态系统已经失去了它的本质。

这也许是最根本的变化之一。在 2021 年的牛市中,项目最初以对投资者非常优惠的条件筹集资金。兑现期限通常少于 3-4 个月,并且完全稀释价值 (FDV) 很小。散户投资者的投资机会也少得多,这导致二级市场需求更大。 (价格最初走得更艰难)。2021年初,是买方(投资者)市场。

随着2021年牛市的成熟,归属和期限开始延长,大家都在争夺预售机会,市场转向卖方市场。随着超级周期的讨论愈演愈烈,条款开始变得荒谬,膨胀的 FDV 和兑现权一直延伸到熊市。

在这次牛市中,条款从一开始就严重偏向于卖方(项目)。2024 年的预售条款比 2021 年差 3 到 4 倍,而且情况还在恶化,许多项目筹集的资金高达数亿美元 FDV,而归属期通常超过 18 个月,通常长达 4 年。更糟糕的是,大约五分之一的项目将在筹集资金数月后追溯更改条款或向投资者退款,而投资者的追索权为零。

尽管如此,风险投资公司还是不顾一切地向项目投入资金,在争夺分配时几乎不关心条款。许多人只是将投资转给零售商以收取费用,因此无论条款如何,他们都有动力获得更多的销量。交易所要求项目延长其归属并减少其 TGE 解锁,做市商正在吸走越来越多的代币。简而言之,尽管预售仍然非常有利可图,但它已不再是以前的印钞机了。

这是什么意思?

  • 资本周转速度将大幅放缓。与准备好进入最新叙述的流动代币相比,将会有更大一部分的纸面收益被锁定并且从未实现。其中大部分可能会被 BTC 和 ETH ETF 的被动流入所抵消。

  • 由于锁定的代币无法被抛售,并且许多投资者被迫成为钻石手,因此牛市可能会持续很长一段时间,超过普遍预期的 2025 年初结束日期。我的预期仍然是 2025 年秋季熊市开始。

  • 尽管 FDV 膨胀(由于长期悬崖和长期兑现时间表),但流通代币仍然顽固地处于低位,因此山寨币的后期牛市价格可能会更加困难。

  • 随着项目数量激增,山寨币将面临稀释效应,所有寻求投资的资本都有更多选择。拥有可靠的项目、合法的团队和强大的基础对于维持巨大的收益将变得越来越重要。

  • 毫不奇怪,随着流动性越来越多地锁定在非流动性预售投资中,风险投资公司将被迫走出风险曲线,利用杠杆和保证金来保持对市场的积极参与。这将导致泡沫破裂的可能性比原本可能的更大,特别是当熊市开始摧毁支撑其利润和杠杆的潜在投资价值时。

总而言之:

  • 延长周期

  • 山寨币的表现将集中在可靠的项目上

  • 预售仍然有利可图,但低于上一个周期(迄今为止)

#2 — 结转山寨币(熊市幸存者)为牛市的爆发创造了更高的基础。

独家加密货币商店

关于左移周期有各种各样的讨论,指的是与之前的牛市相比,本次牛市的开始更早、更具爆炸性。我认为,这一较早的开始在很大程度上是由于 2021 年周期中遗留下来的山寨币数量较多,以及没有受到新冠肺炎疫情干扰的结果。事实上,这似乎更多地表明了一场规模更大、时间更长、更具爆炸性的牛市,而不是左移牛市。这些山寨币幸存者拥有预先存在的社区和包持有者,以及在整个熊市中构建产品的团队。

与之前周期的这个阶段相比,有更多基本面强劲的投资机会。考虑这一点很重要,因为它表明我们是从更高的起点发起这次牛市,而不是我们推动了它向前发展。

在 2017 年周期中,山寨币数量少得多,而且几乎没有上一个周期的遗留物。这意味着选择是有限的,资本对同一小篮子投资的竞争非常激烈。 2021 年,2017 年周期中的遗留问题再次出现,并且私人销售的基础设施非常新且不断发展,这使得进入更加独家且更难获得。

到 2024 年,我们有大量项目在熊市中幸存下来并继续建设,现在已经有了基本的价值主张。我们还拥有成熟的风险投资和私人销售环境,简化了访问,现在的增值不再是简单地获得风险投资,而是获得提供最佳交易的可靠平台。价值已经从简单地获得访问转变为通过最好的启动板平台获得高质量的访问。

结论:

总的来说,人类是双曲线生物。总的来说,我们是一群受情绪驱动的群体,对直接发生在我们面前的事件做出反应,无法抑制情绪反应以支持合理的逻辑思维。加密群众是这种现象的放大版本,一群不稳定的双极退化者兴高采烈地追逐最新的绿色蜡烛,并惊恐地逃离可怕的红色蜡烛。事实上,那些德根们需要做完全相反的事情……买红色,卖绿色,并排除噪音。

缩小。这仍然被认为是迄今为止最具爆炸性的加密周期。我会感到非常惊讶的是,比特币没有从这里大约增加两倍,以太坊从这里增加了 4-5 倍。我们还处于早期阶段,减半即将到来。 ETF、企业和主权基金正在消耗所有比特币,而 Crypto X(Twitter)则因 15-20% 的下跌而疯狂。

缩小范围并系好安全带,我们已经非常接近牛市的抛物线阶段


Some fundamental differences and their amazing influence on the bull market in 2000 and 2000. As we approached the fourth or fifth game of this bull market, I began to notice some fundamental differences from the bull market in 2000. These changes are building a very different infrastructure, and the bull market will be built on this basis, and they are changing the market trajectory. This time, it will be really different, and some unexpected conclusions can be drawn from these differences. The way this bull market is being developed is for a very unique journey. Be prepared for its destination, which is by no means a mirror image of the previous cycle. There are two huge differences and their meanings. This is a seller's project, and the market venture capital ecosystem has lost its essence. This may be one of the most fundamental changes. In the bull market in 2008, the project initially raised funds on very favorable conditions for investors, and the cash-in period is usually less than months, and the completely diluted value is very small, and the investment opportunities of retail investors are much less, which leads to greater demand in the secondary market and the highest price. At the beginning, it was more difficult. At the beginning of the year, the buyer-investor market was competing for the opportunity of pre-sale with the maturity of the bull market in 2008, and the market turned to the seller's market. With the intensified discussion of the super cycle, the terms began to become absurd, inflated and the redemption right extended to the bear market. In this bull market, the terms were seriously biased towards the seller from the beginning, and the pre-sale terms of the project year were twice as bad as that of the previous year, and the situation was still deteriorating. Many projects raised hundreds of millions of dollars, and the ownership period usually exceeded one. To make matters worse, about one-fifth of the projects will retroactively change the terms or refund the investors after raising funds for several months, but the investors' recourse right is zero. Nevertheless, venture capital companies are still desperate to invest in the project, and they hardly care about the terms when competing for distribution. Many people just transfer the investment to retailers to collect fees, so they have the incentive to obtain more sales regardless of the terms. The exchange requires the project to extend its ownership and reduce its unlocking. Suck away more and more tokens. In short, although the pre-sale is still very profitable, it is no longer the former printing machine. What does this mean? The speed of capital turnover will be greatly slowed down. Compared with the floating tokens that are ready to enter the latest narrative, a larger part of paper gains will be locked and never realized, and most of them may be offset by the passive inflow of peace. Because the locked tokens cannot be sold and many investors are forced to become diamond hands, the bull market may last for a long time. Time exceeds the expected end date of the beginning of the year. My expectation is still that the bear market will start in the autumn of 2008. Despite the inflation, due to the long-term cliff and the long-term redemption schedule, the circulating tokens are still stubbornly at a low level, so the later bull market price of shanzhai coins may be more difficult. With the rapid increase in the number of projects, shanzhai coins will face dilution effect. It is not surprising that all capital seeking investment will have more choices, and it will become more and more important to have reliable projects, legal teams and a strong foundation to maintain huge returns. Strange as liquidity is increasingly locked in illiquid pre-sale investment, venture capital companies will be forced to step out of the risk curve and use leverage and margin to maintain active participation in the market, which will lead to a greater possibility of bubble bursting than originally possible, especially when the bear market begins to destroy the potential investment value supporting its profits and leverage. In short, the performance of the extended cycle cottage currency will focus on reliable projects, but the pre-sale is still profitable, but it is lower than the previous cycle. Survivors of the bear market created a higher foundation for the outbreak of the bull market. There are various discussions about the left shift cycle in the exclusive cryptocurrency store, which means that this bull market started earlier and more explosively than the previous bull market. I think this early start is largely due to the large number of counterfeit coins left over in the annual cycle and the result of not being disturbed by the COVID-19 epidemic. In fact, this seems to indicate a bigger, longer and more explosive bull market. It's a bull market that moves to the left. These fake coins survivors have pre-existing communities and package holders, and the teams that build products in the whole bear market have more fundamental and strong investment opportunities than at this stage of the previous cycle. It's important to consider this because it shows that we launched this bull market from a higher starting point instead of pushing it forward. In the annual cycle, the number of fake coins is much smaller and there are almost no remnants of the previous cycle, which means that the choice is limited capital for the same. The competition of small basket investment is fierce, and the problems left over from the annual cycle reappear, and the infrastructure of private sales is very new and constantly developing, which makes entry more exclusive and more difficult to obtain. By, we have a large number of projects that have survived the bear market and continued to build, and now we have a basic value proposition. We also have a mature venture capital and private sales environment, which simplifies access. The current value-added is not simply to obtain venture capital, but to obtain a reliable platform price that provides the best deal. The value has changed from simply getting access to getting high-quality access through the best launch board platform. In general, human beings are hyperbolic creatures. In general, we are a group of people driven by emotions. We can't suppress emotional reactions to support reasonable logical thinking. Encrypting the masses is an enlarged version of this phenomenon. A group of unstable bipolar degenerates happily chase the latest green candles and flee the terrible red candle thing in horror. In fact, those Degen people need to do exactly the opposite, buy red, sell green and eliminate noise. This is still considered to be the most explosive encryption cycle so far. I will be very surprised that Bitcoin has not increased by about twice from here, and Ethereum has tripled from here. We are still in the early stage, and we are about to halve it. Enterprises and sovereign funds are consuming all Bitcoin, but they are frantically narrowing their scope and fastening their seat belts because of the decline. We are very close to the parabolic stage of the bull market. 比特币今日价格行情网_okx交易所app_永续合约_比特币怎么买卖交易_虚拟币交易所平台

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