深度好文｜下一個10年，將會發生的12個趨勢
一、當下生活場景的煩惱與科技的關係
I. The troubles of the current life scene and the relationship between technology and technology
在剛剛過去的2020年，我們經歷了很多大事。所幸這些大事慢慢地回歸了平淡，回歸了日常生活。我們也從關注全球大事，關注國家大事，慢慢回歸到關注我們每個人的生活當中來了。
In the past decade 2020, we have been through a lot. Fortunately, these things have slowly returned to the same level and to everyday life. We have also come back from focusing on global events, on national events and, slowly, on the lives of each and every one of us.
一回到生活，就會發現我們依然面臨著升學、就業、財富、健康的煩惱。今年我們就來討論一下：我們如何過好自己的生活？日常生活會被科技所影響，懂科技也可以讓你過好生活。
When we get back to life, we'll find that we still face problems of promotion, employment, wealth, and health. This year we'll discuss how we can live our lives.
1.教育——不再是過獨木橋
1. Education - is no longer a one-man bridge
最近政府出台的一系列教育相關的政策，使得我們增添了很多新的煩惱。要麼是自己面臨高考，要麼是孩子要參加高考，但現在教育輔導機構沒有了，如何面對高考這座獨木橋？如何讓孩子的成績提升？
A series of education-related policies recently introduced by the government has added a lot of new worries to us. If you are facing a high test, or if you are going to a high test for a child, but now there is no educational guidance facility, how can you face a high examination of this one? How can you improve a child’s grades?
實際上，高考不是目的，教育真正的目的應該是掌握在未來社會當中的生存技巧。
In fact, a higher examination is not an end, and the real purpose of education should be to master the skills of survival in the society of the future.
Google DeepMind（人工智慧企業）是機器學習的最前沿機構，誕生了一大批人工智慧的科研成果，正在改變世界。
Google Deepmind ( artificial intelligence enterprise) is the cutting edge of machine learning, producing a vast body of artificial intelligence research that is changing the world.
Aleksa Gordic（亞歷克薩·戈迪奇）很榮幸被Google DeepMind（人工智慧企業）錄取了，但是他並沒有令人炫目的高學歷，為什麼會被錄取？就是因為他學到了最前沿的人工智慧的知識。所以，即使你是名校畢業，但如果沒有掌握未來的知識，依然可能不會重用；相反，如果你掌握了這些知識，即便沒有文憑，依然可以找到好工作。
Aleksa Gordic (Alecsa Godic) was honoured to have been accepted by Google Deepmind, but he did not have outstanding high-level academic qualifications, why would he be accepted? Because he learned the most advanced knowledge of artificial intelligence. So, even if you graduated from a famous school, it might not be used again if you did not have the knowledge of the future; on the contrary, if you had such knowledge, you could find a good job even without a document.
現在很多科技前沿所需要的知識，那些真正面向未來，需要處理未來工作、生活場景的知識都不是來自於高校，不是來自教育機構。當知識的更迭速度越來越快的時候，教育機構明顯嚴重滯後了。
There is a lot of knowledge that is needed at the cutting edge of technology, and that really looks to the future, that needs to deal with future work and life scenes, not from higher education institutions, but from educational institutions. When knowledge changes faster, education institutions are clearly falling behind.
在什麼地方能夠學到這些知識？社群化學習是現在的一大趨勢，很多的前沿社群聚集了一群對未來的知識充滿好奇，也有興趣研究的人，他們自動聚集到一起，不斷地交互，不斷地交流，每個人慢慢都成為了領域的專家。
Where can this knowledge be learned? Social chemistry is a major trend now, and many front-line communities bring together a group of people who are curious about the future and interested in research, who come together and interact and communicate with each other, and who are slowly becoming experts in the field.
Aleksa Gordic（亞歷克薩·戈迪奇）就是社群化學習網站Github（GitHub是一個面向開源及私有軟體項目的託管平台）中非常活躍的學習參與者，同時，他也帶動了更多人在領域掌握了更新的知識，他們的未來也會更光明。
Aleksa Gordic (Alexa Godic) is a very active learner in the social chemistry website Github (a trusting platform for open-source and private software projects), while also bringing more people into the field with updated knowledge and a brighter future.
如果換個問題，不問如何把今天的高考做得更好，而是問未來到底需要什麼樣的知識，我們如何去掌握這些知識，你就不會再為今天的教學、今天的高考所煩惱。未來越來越少的人會討論高考，越來越多的人會討論技能、能力，會討論機會，這才是一個正常的社會。
If you ask another question, not how to make today’s high test better, but what kind of knowledge we need in the future, how to get it, you will no longer be troubled by today’s teachings, today’s high test. Less and less people in the future will talk about the high test, more and more about skills, abilities, opportunities, and that is a normal society.
我認為，隨著時間的遷移，千軍萬馬過獨木橋的現象一定會轉變，因為社會真正需要的不是考入大學的人，不是拿到了某種文憑的人，而是掌握了真實的、面對未來能夠解決實際問題的技能的人。
I believe that with the passage of time, the phenomenon of thousands of troops crossing the one-man bridge will change, because what society really needs is not those who go to college, not those who have received a certain degree of documentation, but those who have the real skills to face the real problems in the future.
2.就業——找准自己的定位，也能大放異彩
2. Employment -- you can find your own location, you can shine .
現在很多人對自己的工作很焦慮，就有了996、內卷、躺平等等說法。為什麼要躺平？因為看不到方向，看不到目的。同時，不得不承認還是有很多各方面的成功人士。
A lot of people are worried about their work now, and there are 996 stories about their work, about their inner volume, about their equality. Why lie down? Because they can't see the direction, they can't see the purpose. At the same time, they have to admit that there are a lot of successful people in every way.
其實年輕人不是想要躺平，不想奮鬥，而是年輕人希望奮鬥是有意義的，他們可以為一個有意義的事情而奮鬥。當他找不到意義，工作只剩下薪水的時候，就寧願躺平了。李子柒因為製作中華傳統美食，一條視頻就可獲得上千萬播放量。10年之間，位元組跳動成為了比肩並有可能超越BAT的企業。
In fact, young people do not want to lie down and not fight, but they want to fight for something that makes sense, and they can fight for something that makes sense. When he can’t find any sense, he prefers to lie even when he has only paid for his job.
所以，時代不缺乏機會，當你在哀嘆機會被別人拿走的時候，你是否在之前沒看到機會？要知道任何的成功都需要在之前有很長時間的付出。錯過了現在的機會，未來的機會又在哪裡？實際上，未來有很多科技機會正在等著有志青年去實現。
So, there is no lack of opportunity in the times of `strung', and when you mourn that you have been taken away by others, do you not see it before? To know that any success requires a long time before it is done. missed the opportunity now, and where is the future? In fact, there are many technological opportunities ahead of us.
小時候我們都聽過這樣的教育——「學好數理化，走遍天下都不怕」。如果你的智商足夠高，你就有足夠的機會和成就。
When we were kids, we all heard about education like this -- "Learn math and walk around the world without fear." If you have a high IQ, you have enough opportunities and achievements.
後來證明這是片面的，例如李嘉誠，他的智商未必有多麼高，但是他成就很大。這是因為他情商很高，懂得待人接物，懂得團結別人，讓一群人為自己打工，所獲得的成就比自己單打獨鬥要大多了。
It turns out that it is one-sided, such as Li Jiachen, whose IQ is not so high, but he has achieved a great deal. This is because he has a high level of affection, a good sense of hospitality, a sense of solidarity, a group of people working for himself, and much more than he does alone.
但我們又發現比爾·蓋茨、史蒂夫·喬布斯的情商都比較低，但是他們都取得了很大的成就。我們總結，他們有一類智商特別高——人的機器智商，即人理解機器並讓機器為自己服務的能力。
But we found that Bill Gates and Steve Jobs had a lower level of intercession, but they all had a lot of success. In conclusion, they had a very high IQ -- a human IQ -- the ability of people to understand machines and make them serve themselves.
我們都知道機器是可以被無限複製的，在未來世界裡，我們需要讓更多的機器為人服務。在未來社會裡，機器的人口數量會大大超過人的人口數量，每個人都有N個機器為你服務，能夠掌握和調動最多的機器為大家服務的那個人可能就是未來的首富。
We all know that machines can be copied indefinitely, and in the future world we need more machines to serve people. In future societies, the number of machines will be much larger than the number of people. Everyone has a N machine to serve you, and the person who has the most machines to control and adapt to serve you may be the richest person in the future.
所以，未來需要的一類技能就是掌握機器去為人提供更好的服務。如果在今天就為未來的技能去打基礎，為未來的崗位去設計好路徑，也許你在未來就是那個時代的成功者。所以，與其哀嘆今天的機會不屬於我，不如實實在在為未來做好準備，未來的機會可能就屬於你。
So the kind of skills that are needed in the future are to master machines to provide better services to people. If today is the day to build the foundation for future skills and to design the path for future posts, perhaps you will be the success of that time. So, 以前有句話：男怕入錯行。但現在男女平等了，大家都有入錯行的擔心。實際上，科技正在進入每一個產業，改變每一個領域。 There was a saying before that men were afraid to go into the wrong business. But now that men and women are equal, everyone is worried about going into the wrong business. In fact, technology is entering every industry and changing every domain. 更重要的是，現在科技需要深度的協作，不只是搞科技的人才有機會，做市場的人、研究用戶的人、研究合作的人、做供應鏈的人，每一個領域都能發掘自己的機會，只要在整個產業生態中找到自己的獨特定位，就可以在裡面大放異彩。 More importantly, technology now requires in-depth collaboration, not only by those who do it, but also by those who do the market, those who do research, those who do research cooperation, and those who do the supply chain. Each field is able to explore its own opportunities, and if it finds its own unique place in the whole industry, it can flourish in it. 3.財富——把雞蛋放在科技的籃子里 3. Wealth -- put eggs in the basket of technology 現在很多人擔心，錯過了房地產紅利、炒股紅利、比特幣等機會，財富增長速度似乎不夠快，怎麼辦？ A lot of people now worry about missing real estate, stocks, bitcoins, and so on, and it doesn't seem to be growing fast enough. What should we do? 其實不用擔心，未來還有大量的造富機會在等著我們。我們都知道，全球的造富機會都在科技產業。從歷史上看，每一個時代的首富都是那個時代的科技企業家，例如曾經的福特，再後來的微軟，當今的谷歌等等。 Indeed, there are many opportunities for wealth in the future. As we all know, the global opportunities for wealth are in the technology industry. Historically, the wealth of every generation is that of technology entrepreneurs, such as once Ford, then of microsoftness, today's Google, and so on. 每個時代的科技企業，都會引領時代的產業發展，也會形成巨大的創富機會。讓人值得高興的一個事實是，現在依然有大量企業不斷地崛起。你只要抓住機會，也能成為財富的積累者之一。 Every time a technology enterprise leads to the development of the industry of the times, and it creates great opportunities for wealth creation. One of the joyful facts of ‘strong’ is that there are still a lot of businesses that are still rising. You can also be one of the contributors to wealth if you seize the opportunity. 現在有這樣一個理財觀念——不要把雞蛋放在同一個籃子里。我們認為，應該把雞蛋放在同一個籃子里，因為我們已經知道，創造財富的那個籃子叫做科技企業，所以你真正應該投入的是那些最優秀的科技企業。 Now there's a financial theory -- don't put eggs in the same basket. We think we should put eggs in the same basket, because we already know that the basket that creates wealth is called a technology business, so what you really should invest in is the best technology business. 在風險投資領域，就特別反對「雞蛋不要放在一個籃子里」的理念。孫正義之所以投中了阿里巴巴，就是因為他認為電商是一個未來的產業，所以他在電商行業中大量布局，雖然其他都失敗了，但是投中一個阿里巴巴就讓他獲得了高額回報。 The idea that "eggs should not be placed in a basket" is particularly opposed in the field of risky investment. Sun Justice has voted for Ali Baba because he believes that electricity is a future business, so he has a lot of layout in the electronics business, and while all else has failed, one Ali Baba has earned him a high return. 這是一個普遍規律，和社會的理解相反，真正要獲得財富自由，真正要取得好的投資回報，恰恰是要投中頭部企業。不是投了10個企業每個都賺了錢，而是哪怕9個全賠掉，只要投中了未來的明星，你就賺了。 It's a general rule, contrary to society's understanding, that the real freedom to be rich and the real return on good investment is precisely to be in the head business. Not to invest in 10 businesses, but to pay off even nine, if you're in the future, you're in it. 所以，找到頭部企業下重注，才是真正的投資方法。但你會說，即使有這樣的投資方法，也和大機構無法相比，沒他們那麼有錢。但大機構的錢，反而只能平均分散，只能把雞蛋放在不同的籃子里，這樣，他的回報反而不如你。 So the real way to invest is to find a big bet on the head business. , you'll say, even if there is such an investment, it's not as rich as the big ones. But the money in the big agencies, on the other hand, is spread evenly, leaving eggs in different baskets, so he doesn't pay back as much as you do. 還有一個關鍵問題，機構投資都有回撤比例的要求，當一個股票的估值下跌了10%，跌了20%，大機構就要把股票賣出，因為再下跌它就承受不起損失了。但任何優秀的科技機構估價都會有波動，很多時候波動會超過10%、20%。而那些堅定的持有者往往是個人，他不受這種回撤所約束，也才能真正享受到科技的紅利。 There is also a key problem: when the value of a stock drops by 10% and by 20%, the major agency sells the stock, because it can’t afford to lose it. But any good technonomic institution will have a wave, which in many cases exceeds 10% or 20%. 所以，真正能夠得到高額回報的往往是那些堅定地相信科技，看懂了科技，堅定投入到一些未來科技企業里的個人，也許就是看懂了科技的你。 So it's often those who really get a big reward for their firm belief in technology, their understanding of technology, their commitment to future technology ventures, and perhaps their understanding of technology. 4.健康——利用科技為人類服務 4. Health -- using technology to serve humanity 人類正在進入老年社會，中國尤其如此。 Human beings are entering an old-age society, especially in China. 現在父母的年紀越來越大，現在最重要的煩惱，就是父母的健康，尤其是疾病像個定時炸彈，不知道什麼時候就會爆炸。一爆炸，整個家庭都會面臨很大的壓力，不光是財務支出，還包括精神壓力等很多的問題。 Now that parents are getting older, the most important worry is that parents’ health, especially illness, is like a time bomb, will explode at a time when they don’t know. In the event of an explosion, the whole family will be under a lot of pressure, not just financial expenses, but also a lot of mental stress. 但是我們不知道這疾病什麼時候來，就像華大基因的董事長所講：60%的癌症患者把60%的積蓄用於生命的最後28天。在最後的不到一個月的時間，你花光了所有的積蓄，也不太可能過健康快樂的人生了。 But we don't know when the disease will come, as the president of the Chinese gene said: 60% of cancer patients spend 60% of their savings on the last 28 days of life. In less than a month, you spend all your savings and are unlikely to live a healthy and happy life. 這無疑是個悲劇，如何去避免？其實我想告訴大家，現在已經有越來越多的先進科技，不光能幫父母，還能幫自己更好地了解健康狀況了。哪怕一個簡單的東西，比如蘋果手錶，現在不僅能測血氧、測心率，還能測睡眠，記錄我們的健身。 It's a tragedy, and how to avoid it? And I want to tell you that there's more and more advanced technology now, not just to help parents, but to help people better understand their health. Even simple things like an apple watch, it's not just blood oxygen, heart rate, sleep, and workout. 這是一個很有悖論意義的東西：一方面，先進科技已經能夠為我們提供了健康保障，幫我們來監測健康狀況；另一方面，老年人恰恰使用先進科技是最晚的一幫人，因為他們不適應先進科技使用。 This is a paradox: on the one hand, advanced technology has been able to provide us with health security and help us monitor health conditions; on the other hand, older people are the ones who use advanced technology at the latest because they are not fit for advanced technology. 這種時候，需要我們每個人做出努力，幫助家裡的老人用上先進科技，用先進科技來保障他們的健康。最重要的是，這些科技已經被發明出來了，只不過我們還不知道它存在而已，老年人離這些科技更遠一些。這需要我們年輕一代要充分了解先進科技的進展，找到那些最適用的先進科技，讓家中的老人早早用上。 At a time like this, every one of us needs to make an effort to help older people in our homes use advanced technology to protect their health. Most importantly, these technologies have been invented, but we do not know that they exist, and older people are much further away from them. This requires that our younger generation fully understand the advances in advanced technology, find the best technologies to use, so that older people in our homes can use them early. 最近剛在香港上市的Airdoc，就利用了人工智慧的圖像檢測，專門做每個人的眼底血管的檢測。眼底血管是人體唯一裸露在外，可以被視覺觀察到的血管，通過眼底血管的監測能夠對很多疾病進行檢測，例如心腦血管疾病，糖尿病等等都可以被監測出來。這些疾病如果早發現早干預，愈後都會非常的良好，不光少花錢，而且少病痛。 Airdoc, who has recently been listed in Hong Kong, uses artificial intelligence to test every person’s bottom blood vessels. Eye vessels are the only ones that are visible, visible, detectable, and detect many diseases, such as cardiovascular disease, diabetes, etc.. If they are detected early, they will be very good, not only for money, but also for pain. 科技已經走到了今天，大量的疾病如果到了晚期就難治癒，很多疾病如果能在早期發現，都能夠有很好的治療手段。唯一的問題是，我們每個人如何主動利用先進科技，使得它真正地造福我們。 Technology has come to this day, a lot of diseases can be cured at an advanced stage, and many diseases can be treated well if they are discovered at an early stage. The only question is how each and every one of us is willing to use advanced technology to make it truly work for us. 雖然我們每個人都有升學、工作、財富、健康的煩惱，但如果懂得利用科技，掌握科技發展的規律，就會發現今天這些煩惱，不用非得針對它去解決，因為隨著時間的推移，今天的煩惱在未來都不再是煩惱了。 Although every one of us has problems of promotion, work, wealth and health, if we learn to use technology and master the rules of its development, we will find that today's worries need not be addressed because, with time, today's worries are no longer a problem in the future. 為什麼不再是煩惱？因為科技幫我們改變了世界，科技正在讓我們今天的世界變得越來越好，科技會成為一種塑造未來的力量。 Why not? Because technology is helping us change the world, it's making our world today better, and it's becoming a force that shapes the future. 我們的未來是被科技所塑造的。我們需要理解科技是如何塑造未來的，通過這種理解，我們就可以預測到未來社會將是什麼樣的；如果我們知道了未來什麼樣的，我們提前做好準備，就可能成為未來社會的最大贏家。 Our future is shaped by technology. We need to understand how technology shapes the future. With this understanding, we can predict what society will look like; if we know what the future looks like, we can be the biggest winners in the future. ? 就像《回到未來》那個電影里所講到：如果我們已經提前知道了下一場賽馬的成績，就可以去勇敢下注了。雖然是科幻場景，但是給我們一個很大的啟示，我們要把時間、精力，不是放在今天而是放在未來，要知道未來會如何演化下去，如何為將來做好準備。 As the film Returning to the Future says: If we know the next horse in advance, we can bet. Although it's a science fiction scene, it's a big signal that we need time, energy, not today, but the future, to know how the future will evolve and how to prepare for the future. 二、生產規模化與服務規模化 II. Modelling of production and services 那麼，塑造未來的最大的力量是什麼？塑造未來的最大力量，就是現在新一輪的科技潮流，我們叫做服務規模化。 So, what is the greatest force that shapes the future? The greatest force that shapes the future is the new wave of technology that we call services. 1.生產規模化對社會的推動及局限性 1. Motivation and limitation of production to society 我們知道，對社會推動最大的力量是工業革命。工業革命以前，人類的經濟增長基本上是一條水平直線，到了工業革命之後，人類的整個社會發展進入了加速增長的曲線的，我們的增長速度越來越快。 We know that the most powerful force for moving society is the industrial revolution. Before the industrial revolution, human economic growth was basically a horizontal straight line, and after the industrial revolution, the entire human society moved into an accelerated and growing curve, and we grew faster. 工業革命給我們帶來的是什麼？很多人會說是蒸汽機，是工廠，實際最本質的東西是生產的規模化。 What does the industrial revolution bring us? A lot of people say it's a steam engine, it's a factory, it's actually the most essential thing that's produced. 如何理解生產規模化和服務的規模化呢？ How do you understand how to scale production and services? 每個人都有需求，你滿足別人的需求獲得相應的報酬，這是一個商業的基本原理。 Everyone has needs, and you get the right reward for meeting the needs of others, which is the basic principle of a business. 假設我有一個需求是想吃冰鎮西瓜，因為夏天太熱了。需求如何被滿足的？ Let's say I have a need for ice-cold watermelon because summer is too hot. How is it satisfied? 如果你很榮幸生活在帝王家裡，幾百年前，在夏日炎炎之時也可以吃到冰鎮西瓜，因為故宮有地窖，冬天有人鑿出冰塊放到地窖里，外面蓋上棉被，等到夏天的時候冰塊就可以用來冰鎮西瓜。 If you are honoured to live at the emperor's house, you can eat iced watermelon hundreds of years ago in the summer heat, because there are cellars in the palace, ice is cut out in the winter into the cellar, cotton is covered outside, and ice can be used in the summer for iced watermelon. 皇帝一個人享受冰鎮西瓜，需要100人來服務。那麼，100人需要服務就要1萬人來提供，就是規模的服務提供是不現實的，因為更多的人為更少數人提供服務，所以沒有辦法實現規模化。 The Emperor, alone, enjoys a watermelon of ice, and needs 100 people to serve. So, if 100 people need a service, 10,000 people need a service, it is not realistic, because more people serve fewer people, so there is no way to quantify it. 這時候怎麼辦？工業革命給了我們一個思路，我們叫做：把服務放到產品里。雖然沒有辦法給你提供規模化的服務，但是因為有了工廠，有了規模化的生產能力，就可以把你想要的服務給它固化成一個產品，這個產品就是冰箱。 What do we do at this time? The industrial revolution gave us the idea that we called, "Put the service in the product." There's no way to offer you a model service, but because you have a factory, and you have a built-up capacity, you can solidise the service you want into a product, which is a refrigerator. 所以你只要買了冰箱，就能得到冰鎮西瓜。這種時候每個人的需求就會滿足了。而且需求的滿足比過去要廣泛的多了，因為100個人生產冰箱，能夠讓1萬個人得到滿足，少數人服務多數人，整個經濟結構才是良性的，才是能夠規模化的。 So when you buy a refrigerator, you get an ice-cold watermelon. That's when everyone's needs are satisfied. And the demand is much broader than in the past, because 100 life refrigerators are enough for 10,000 people, and a few serve a large number of people, and the economy as a whole is benign and can be modeled. 所以，工業革命出現了之後，社會進入一個用規模化生產的產品去滿足人們的服務的階段。你有吃冰鎮西瓜的需求，賣你冰箱；你有洗衣服的需求，賣你洗衣機；你要做飯的需求，賣你微波爐和各種爐具劇；你有掃地的需求，賣你掃地機。 So, when the industrial revolution of `strung' appeared, society moved into a phase where people's services were satisfied with a chemically manufactured product. you had a need for ice-cold watermelon, sold your refrigerator, you had a need for laundry, sold your washing machine, you had a need for food, sold your microwaves and all kinds of stoves, and you had a need to clean your floors and sell your floors. 使得我們每個人，都享受到了過去只有帝王才能享受到的服務。但是這個模式依然有一個缺陷，因為不是直接把服務交給你，需要你自己去操作設備去完成服務。 So that each and every one of us could enjoy the services that only the emperor could have enjoyed in the past. But this pattern still has a flaw, because it takes you to do it without giving it to you directly. 我們都知道過去有句話：我想要的不是那個電鑽，而是牆上那個孔，因為我為了要在牆上掛個畫，要打個孔，但是為了打孔只好買個電鑽。 We all know that there was a saying in the past: I didn't want the drill, but the hole in the wall, because I had to punch a hole to put a picture on the wall, but I had to buy a drill to do it. 所以，在生產規模化階段有一個小遺憾，每個人買了越來越多的產品，其實很多產品可能只用了一次，我想要的是服務，並不需要擁有這件產品。甚至一些產品本身的缺陷，也要由消費者承擔。 So there's a small regret at the production scale, where everyone buys more and more products, and many of them may only be used once, and I want services, and I don't need to own them. Even some of the defects of the products themselves are borne by the consumers. 比如，我們買車是為了交通出行方便，是需要隨時隨地的出行服務，而不是真想擁有那輛車。但是因為出行不能被解決，所以只好買那輛車。買了車以後，又有了更多的煩惱。 For example, we buy cars to facilitate travel, and we need to travel whenever we want, not because we really want to own the car. But because travel can't be solved, we have to buy the car. When we buy the car, there's more trouble. 比如，出行到目的地的時候，還要找停車場。另外，每1萬輛車賣出去以後，總有幾輛會損壞會要維修，至於說哪幾輛不知道，對於廠家是萬分之幾的維修率，而對每個消費者來說，如果你真要攤上那輛車要維修的話，就成了100%。明明是廠家的瑕疵，但被你趕上了，就得掏錢去維修。 For example, when you travel to your destination, you have to find a parking lot. Moreover, when every 10,000 cars sell, several of them will be damaged and maintenance will have to be maintained. As for which of them, the maintenance rate is one in ten for the manufacturer, and 100 per cent for every consumer, if you really want to fix the car. It's the factory's fault, but if you catch it, you have to pay for maintenance. 所以，生產規模化第一次使得每個人想要的服務被普及了，得到了極大的便利，但是也帶來了一個問題，因為你賣給別人的不是服務，而是產品。 So, for the first time, product modalization has made everyone's desired services widely available and extremely convenient, but it also raises a problem, because you sell not services, but products. 2.服務規模化的產生 2. . 從20世紀70年代開始，從PC從軟體包括後來的互聯網，再到現在人工智慧，這個大潮流，我們叫做數字革命。因為數字革命的推動，尤其是近幾年的人工智慧的推動。 Since the 1970s, from PC to software, including subsequent Internet connections, to the current trend of artificial intelligence, we call it the digital revolution, because of the drive of the digital revolution, especially in recent years. 人工智慧可以通過大數據來自己去學習。大數據其實凝固的是人類的經驗，尤其是那些人類裡面最優秀的經驗。通過對人類經驗的學習，甚至可以掌握得比人類還好。AlphaGo已經戰勝了圍棋世界冠軍李世石，而且它能夠把經驗規模化地複製出來。 Artificial intelligence can learn by itself through big data. The big strong data is actually solid in human experience, especially the best in humans. It is even better to learn from human experience than it is for humans. 所以，這是我們人類第一次進入到一個階段，服務可以規模化了，而且每個人可以享受到人類最優秀、最好的服務，所以這個時代就是服務規模化時代。這個時代的特色，會決定未來方方面面的走向。 So, this is the first time that we humans have entered a phase in which services can be scaled up, and where everyone can enjoy the best and best of human services, this is the era of service modulation. The characteristics of this time will determine the way forward. 未來有哪些行業會被重新塑造？我們通過對未來十二個生活場景的描述，通過對未來產業趨勢的預測，你就知道，自己應該如何抓住未來的這些機會。 What future business will be reshaped? By describing the next 12 life scenes, by predicting future production trends, you know how you should seize the opportunities of the future. 三、服務規模化改變人類生存環境 iii. Service modulation changes the environment in which humans live 首當其衝的是我們的衣食住行。未來的衣食住行會是什麼樣？ The first thing to hit is our food and clothing. What will our future food and clothing be? 1.人居環境 1. Habitat 未來的趨勢一定是超級城市化。 The way forward must be super-urbanization. 一方面，我們每個人都享受到了城市帶來的好處，外賣點餐30分鐘送達，購物30分鐘送到，原因其實很簡單，人口密度足夠大，我們得到的服務才能夠如此方便快捷。 On the one hand, each and every one of us enjoyed the benefits of the city, taking out food for 30 minutes and shopping for 30 minutes, for the simple reason that the population density was high enough for the services we received to be so easy and fast. 另一方面，當每個人都從繁重的重複勞動當中解放出來，我們都能專註在創造力的時候，也需要有足夠密度的人在一起交流碰撞，才能形成更多的創意。 On the other hand, when everyone is freed from heavy and repeated labour, we can focus on creativity and we need people with enough density to interact with each other to create more creativity. 所以超級城市化無疑是未來的趨勢，但是它也會給我們的居住帶來煩惱，意味著每個人的居住空間一定會是越來越小的。人人都有一個大宅子，這個夢想就很難實現了。 So super-urbanization is certainly the future, but it also causes trouble for our lives, meaning that everyone's living space is getting smaller and smaller. Everyone has a big house, and this dream is hard to realize. 也許你度假的時候可以去大房子，但在日常生活工作當中，還是被困在城市裡的。尤其是人口密度大，如果你家裡環境又小，再堆滿了東西，你的焦慮感就會特彆強大，所以簡約化的居住，一定是未來的發展方向。 Maybe you can go to a big house while you're on vacation, but you're still trapped in the city when you work in daily life. Especially in terms of population density, if you're in a small place and you're full of stuff, your anxiety will be great, so a simple residence must be the way of the future. 但是斷舍離，簡約的居住方式，也意味著家裡沒有傢具，空間看似很乾凈了，又會帶來了一個問題，就是你有缺失感，得不到滿足感。因為我們每個人，其實都是需要滿足感。 But the isolation, the simple way of living, also means that there are no furniture in the house, the space seems clean, and the problem is that you have a sense of loss and a sense of complacency, because each and every one of us needs to be satisfied. 這時，科技就能給你帶來虛擬的滿足感。什麼是虛擬的滿足感呢？ At that point, technology can give you a sense of virtual satisfaction. What is a sense of virtual satisfaction? 滿足感無外乎是富足，擁有所有的產品。雖然這些產品並不在我家裡擺著，並不在現實的衣櫃里，並不在現實櫥櫃里。但是我從網上甚至屏幕上，能夠實時地顯示出來，就像虛擬的儲物櫃一樣，當我想要某款商品的時候一點擊，半小時甚至更短的時間就送到家裡來。 Satisfy is rich and has all the products. Although these products are not in my house, in a real closet, and not in a real closet. But I can show them on the Internet and even on the screen in real time, like a virtual locker, when I want a product, it comes in half an hour or less. 現在已經有科技公司在研製了，我們的門邊上會有一個單獨的儲物單元，從外面送的貨品放到儲物單元里，甚至這個儲物單元有一定的保溫功能，你從裡面打開門就能取到。 Now that there's a technology company working on it, there's a single storage unit next to our door, and the goods delivered from the outside are placed in the storage unit, and even this storage unit has some heat protection that you can get from it. 如果你把整個環節連續起來看，未來如果你想要任何一個物品，在網上點擊後，半個小時內打開家裡的儲物門，那個物品就已經存在了。這個時候，你無疑就獲得虛擬滿足感，雖然商品明明不在家裡存著，但感覺上你擁有了一切。 If you look at the whole chain, the future if you want any item, click on the Internet and open the door of the house in half an hour, it's already there. At this point, you get a sense of virtual satisfaction, even though the goods are not in the house, but you feel like you have everything. 另一方面，虛擬滿足感的存在還取決於有沒有人為你服務。如果你是巨富，或者是過去的帝王，一定有人天天在你旁邊24小時服務，比如管家，幫你打點一切，滿足你的需求。 On the other hand, the existence of virtual satisfaction depends on whether you have someone to serve you. If you're a rich man or a former emperor, someone must be around you 24 hours a day, like a housekeeper, to help you with everything you need. 現在人工智慧機器人也可以提供類似的服務了。亞馬遜就推出了一個小機器人Astro，它的原理很簡單，它會跟隨在家人旁邊，不僅是陪伴，還能隨時聽你的吩咐，是不是很像一個盡職盡責的管家？ An artificial intelligence robot can now offer similar services. The Amazon has launched a small robot, Astro, whose principles are simple, who follows his family, not just with him, but at your disposal. Does it look like a housekeeper who does his job? 當你在家裡有機器人為你服務，聽你的命令，還有各種商品隨時能夠滿足你，你就獲得了虛擬滿足感。 You get a sense of virtual satisfaction when you have a robot at home to serve you, to listen to your orders, and all kinds of goods to satisfy you at any time. 這種時候，哪怕你的居住空間看起來很小，但是你在虛擬世界裡，在你的想像空間里，你擁有的東西會很多。 At a time like this, even if your living space looks small, you have a lot in the virtual world, in your imagination. 2.出行 2. Traveling 出行的焦慮來源是在什麼地方？如何解決？ Where are the sources of anxiety for travel? How? 據中國城市規劃設計研究院統計數據，中國上班族每天超過60分鐘通勤時間的人數達到了1,000萬人之多，路途上又擁堵又疲乏，體驗非常糟糕。 According to the statistics of the Chinese Urban Design Institute, the number of Chinese workers who spend more than 60 minutes of commuter hours a day reaches 10 million, and the traffic is crowded and exhausted, and the experience is very bad. 現在，自動駕駛落地應用已經越來越近了。未來，上下班交通的時間可能不再是你一天里最焦慮的時間，而是你一天里最快樂的時間。不用再擔心交通擁堵，這個時間可以用來社交購物，玩遊戲，看電影。 Now, auto-drive applications are getting closer. In the future, travel time may not be the most anxious time of your day, but the happiest time of your day. There is no need to worry about traffic congestion, which can be used for social shopping, games, movies. 甚至我們可以大膽預測，當交通出行被自動駕駛所滿足後，我們更多的時間可以放在娛樂上，娛樂業會因此發生一些適應性的改變。 We can even predict that, when traffic travels are satisfied with autopilots, we can spend more time on entertainment, which will result in some adaptation changes. 比如，未來的電影不再是90分鐘甚至120分鐘，更像是今天的連續劇，三四十分鐘，其目標就是讓您從下班到回家正好看完，在回家過程當中，得到的是享受，是你一天中最快樂的自由支配時間。 For example, the film of the future is no longer 90 minutes or 120 minutes, more like today's series, 30 minutes or 40 minutes, and the goal is to get you to see it from work to home, to enjoy it when you go home, and to be the happiest free time of your day. 自動駕駛影響的另一個行業是旅遊。以往出去旅遊，要訂機票，可能還要轉機，非常繁瑣。未來有了自動駕駛和智能服務，就會有服務商為你解決所有問題：出門就有自動駕駛車輛，送你到機場或火車站，達到目的後，又有自動駕駛車輛來接你。 Another business affected by auto-drives is travel. In the past, travels, booking tickets, and possibly rerouting, are complicated. In the future, with auto-drives and intelligence services, there will be service providers to solve all your problems: there will be auto-drive cars out of the house, you will be sent to the airport or train station, and you will be picked up by auto-drives when you reach your destination. 整個環節不需要人工干預，實現全自動服務。這時候出行不再是一個痛苦的體驗了，而是一個無縫連接的、很舒服的體驗了。 There is no need for manual intervention throughout the cycle to achieve full automatic service. Traveling is no longer a painful experience, but rather a seamless, comfortable experience. 3.餐飲 3. Catering >/strong> 今天的餐飲，有一個很大的矛盾。我們越來越重視健康，健康餐越來越普及，甚至現在的年輕人，每天在吃飯的時候都要計算一下卡路里。 There's a big contradiction between today's meals. We're looking at health more and more, and even today's young people have to count calories every day when they eat. 但是健康餐相對來說口味就弱一點，如果天天吃健康餐，吃同樣的飲食很容易疲勞。未來就會有個性化的健康餐飲方案提供商為你提供服務，既保證所有的餐飲卡路里數是已知的，能夠持續統計，同時保證不斷地幫變換口味，讓你的口味營養能夠兼顧。 But a healthy meal is a weaker taste than a healthy meal. If you eat healthy food every day, you will be tired of eating the same food. 那麼，如何提供這樣的服務呢？肯定不是靠人力來提供，而是靠科技來規模化地提供個性化服務。如果一個廚師會10種拿手菜就不錯了，會100種就更困難了，靠人的能力是難以規模化的，我們要靠的是餐飲服務機器人。 So, how is it possible to provide such a service? It's not human, it's technology, it's technology, it's technology, it's personal. It's good if a cook can do 10 kinds of handy food, it's harder for 100, it's difficult for people to do so, and it's hard for us to do so, and it's food and drink and service robots. 未來很多餐廳裡面，廚師不再是人了，而是機器人。這些機器人可不簡單，比如煎牛排的機器人，將米其林三星級廚師的煎牛排手藝、經驗固化到系統中。所以，這塊牛排實際上是米其林三星級廚師的手藝，只不過不是他親自煎的。因為米其林三星級廚師畢竟有限，讓他能為每個人提供餐飲服務是不現實的，但通過現在的科技就能複製其能力，使人人都能享受到最好的餐飲服務。 In many future restaurants, cooks are no longer humans, but robots. It is not easy for robots, such as steak-cooking robots, to bind Michelin's three-star cooks to the system. So, this steak is actually Michelin's three-star chef's cooking, but it's not his own. Because Michelin's three-star cooks are limited, it is not realistic that they can feed everyone, but with the technology they can replicate their abilities so that everyone can enjoy the best food and drink. 同時，從產業的角度來看，一個企業經營不光要看高端不高端，更要看有沒有規模化的機會。因為工業革命以來，科技產業最核心的要點就是如何擴大規模，但是餐飲行業特別難以擴大規模，尤其是高端餐飲。 At the same time, from the point of view of the industry, 而相對低端一點的餐飲之所以可以擴大規模，其關鍵在於不挑廚師，它只是一個標準化的運作，但標準化運作菜品的口味多樣性往往就會有所欠缺。 The key to the expansion of diets at the lower end of the scale is not to choose the chef, which is a standard operation, but the taste and variety of the standard cooking products are often lacking. 每個人更希望獲得的是高端體驗，你不會天天吃麥當勞，但如果讓你吃不同廚師做的法式餐，相信你不會拒絕。 Everyone is more interested in high-end experience, and you don't eat McDonald's every day, but if you eat French meals made by different cooks, you will not refuse. 這個問題怎麼滿足？當有了餐飲機器人，並且餐飲機器人複雜性足夠，又學到了足夠經驗的時候，就可以做出很多高端的菜品來。如果機器人也能做出高端菜品，意味著高端餐廳也可以規模化連鎖經營了。 How is that enough? When you have a food robot, and the food robot is complicated enough to learn enough, you can make a lot of high-end dishes. If you can make a high-end dish, it means that a high-end restaurant can be locked up. 因而，未來極有可能有一批高端餐飲企業，不光菜品很高端，其市值也會衝到世界前列。原因其實很簡單，因為他用的是可以為你規模化提供服務的機器人，而且機器人換菜品就相當於我們在網上下載軟體一樣，新的菜品出來，只需要從網上遠程把程序下載到機器人的系統中，他就可以學會做新的菜品，顧客可以享受到新的菜品。 As a result, it is highly likely that there will be a number of high-end catering companies in the future whose market value will go to the forefront of the world. The reason is simple, because he uses robots that can serve you as a model, and because robots change foods as much as we download software on the Internet, new foods come out and simply download the program from the web far away into the robotic system, so that he can learn to cook new foods and customers can enjoy new foods. 4.購物 4. Shopping >/strong 購物現在也有一個矛盾：現在線上的購物越來越普及，很多人從過去線下逛店，已經轉到了線上逛店。 There is also a contradiction in shopping: now that shopping on the line is becoming more common, many people have moved from the past to the online shop. 但是線上購物依然有一個重大的缺陷，我們沒有辦法更直觀地體驗貨品，尤其是買衣服。不光是看式樣，還要看質感是不是舒服，而這種質感在線上就很難獲得。所以很多人在線上買了衣服以後，自己一試發現和購買頁面展示的感覺很不一樣，所以只好去退貨。 But there is still a major flaw in online shopping, and we can't afford to look more directly at goods, especially clothing. It's not just style, but quality is comfortable, and it's hard to get online. So many people, after buying clothes online, find out how they feel different from buying pages, so they have to return them. 但是線下能夠獲得較好的體驗，所以很多人還是願意去線下去購物。但線下能讓你試的貨品和其存貨有關，任何一個商場的實體庫存並不是無限的，能讓選擇的貨品就很少。 But there are many people who are willing to go on the line and buy. But the goods that you can try under the line are related to their storage, and the physical stock of any mall is not unlimited, leaving little to choose. 線下雖然體驗豐富，但選擇偏少，而線上相反，選擇很多，但體驗太單薄。能不能將兩者結合起來？ It's a lot of experience under the line, but there are few choices, and on the other hand, there are a lot of choices, but the experience is too thin. Can you combine the two? 已經有科技企業做這樣的研究了，未來你在線下服裝店試衣服的時候，其核心並不是式樣而是質感。你穿上某種質感的衣服，在鏡子里可以看到不同的顏色，甚至不同的式樣，你能得到豐富的體驗，能得到非常直觀的感受，你在購物的時候就能購買到稱心如意的商品了。 There are technology companies already doing this, and in the future, when you try clothes in an online dress shop, it's not about style, it's about quality. You put on some kind of quality dress, you can see different colors and even different patterns in the mirror, you can get a lot of experience, you can get a good look, and you can buy what you want when you're shopping. 我們生活的方方面面都在被科技推動作出變化，這背後的底層規律是什麼？為什麼向這方面去變化？為什麼我們預測未來社會是這樣的？其實原理也很簡單，就是科技讓我們生活得更好，它會針對我們現在面臨的所有的問題，找到更新、更好的解決方案。 All aspects of our lives have been changed by technology. What is the bottom line behind this? Why change it? Why are we predicting a society like this in the future? The truth is that technology is so simple that it allows us to live better, and that it will find new, better solutions to all the problems we face now. 技術幫我們確定了文化的方向，反過來講，當有了科技作為更好解決方案的時候，我們就會主動去擁抱科技，每個人都會去選擇這樣幾個方案，文化又會決定技術的發展。 Technology helps us determine the direction of culture, and instead, when we have technology as a better solution, we embrace technology, everyone chooses these options, and culture determines technology. 所以，未來的社會發展是技術與社會共同進化的。一方面，技術推動社會不斷地運用新技術去讓自己得到更好的滿足；另一方面，因為得到了滿足，就會把那些使我得到更好滿足的技術固化下來，而且讓這些技術有更大的發展空間。 So the future of society is technologically and socially evolving. On the one hand, technology drives society to use new technologies to better satisfy itself, and, on the other hand, because it is satisfying, it entrenches those technologies that make me more satisfying and leaves room for greater development. 所以，在這樣雙向選擇的基礎之上，其實是我們全人類共同的群體智能一起找到了一個使我們大家都能夠過得更舒服的方向，而科技就是主要動力。 So, on the basis of this two-way choice, it's the collective intelligence of all of us, together, that finds a direction that makes us all feel better, and technology is the main force. 從這個角度，你就會理解我們為什麼能夠清晰地預測到未來，而且用這個原理你也能夠更好的預測未來，從而找到你自己的發展機會。 From this perspective, you'll understand why we can clearly predict the future, and with this, you can better predict the future and find your own development opportunities. 四、科技讓生活更豐富 IV. Technology makes life richer 1.電競——既有競技性，又有娛樂性 最近我們都知道說英雄聯盟總決賽冠軍出來了，是中國的運動隊，所以尤其年輕人舉國狂歡。 We all know recently that the winner of the Heroes League Finals is a Chinese sports team, so young people in particular are having a national party. 我們認為電競就是未來，為什麼這麼說？因為它既充滿了競技性，又充滿了娛樂性。 We think electricity is the future, why do you say that? Because it's both competitive and entertaining. 我們知道體育對我們更有好處，因為電競可能更多的是鍛煉手腦協調，腦子轉得很快，手就是幾根手指頭。但是我們希望不光鍛煉這幾根手指頭，還要鍛煉整個身體強壯，胳膊、腿都要鍛煉。 We know that sports are better for us, because electric competition may be more of a hand-craining process, a quick brain shift, a few fingers. But we're hoping not just for these fingers, but for the whole body to be strong, with its arms and legs staggered. 這時候怎麼辦？現在已經有一些應用在往這個方向靠攏了，比如一些跑步的APP。我們每天都應該有一定的時間去慢跑，對自己身體有好處，但是跑步這件事很枯燥，而且每天都沿著一個路線跑很無趣。 What do we do now? There are applications in this direction, like running APPs. We should have some time to jog every day, and it's good for our bodies, but running is boring, and running around a road every day is boring. 這個APP就會告訴你說你可以選擇不同的路線，同時，你可以和類似路線或者完全相同路線的人去PK，或者自己和自己PK，你每天的成績有什麼樣的變化，這樣就增加了趣味性，有人甚至把自己的跑步路線跑出一個玫瑰花的圖案來，跑步就變成了一個趣味性的事情了。 The APP will tell you that you can choose a different route, and at the same time, you can go to PK with someone like that or exactly the same route, or you and your own PK, and how your daily grades change, adding fun to it, and someone even runs out of a rose. 我們總結一下，未來這些確實對我們有好處，但是娛樂性不夠的運動，如何讓它增加娛樂性，我們叫做電競化，向電子競技學習。 Let's conclude that these are good things for us in the future, but less entertaining sports, how to make it more entertaining, we're called e-merit, e-competing. 所以我們不光要看到電子競技可能會耽誤時間的部分，還要看到電子競技好的部分，才能充分調動大家的娛樂性、趣味性，能使我們對有益的事情堅持得更久。 So not only do we have to see the part of electronic competition that might delay time, but we also have to see the part of electronic competition that is good, so that we can be fully entertained and entertained, so that we can hold on to what is good. 2.遊戲——在數字化時代學習技能 2. Game -- learning skills in digitalization 當然，我們也就看到另一個問題了，很多人在批評玩遊戲。但是我們想過沒有，如何使得我們的遊戲有用，如何能使有用的東西像遊戲一樣有趣？ Of course, we see another problem: a lot of people are critical of the game. But we've thought about how to make our game work and how to make what works as fun as a game. 但是我們的日常生活中，過去有一個詞很時髦，叫做遊戲化Gamification。我們的生活都像遊戲一樣，不是更加有趣嗎？ But in our day-to-day lives, there used to be a very stylish word called Gamiface. Our lives are like games, aren't they more fun? 互聯網剛剛興起的時候，互聯網巨頭們組織過「西湖論劍」。第一屆「西湖論劍」請了金庸作為嘉賓，金庸上台以後，網易的丁磊第一句話說：「金老先生，你可害死我們了」。 In the early days of the Internet, the giants of the Internet organized the "Sword of West Lake". The first "Sword of West Lake" invited Kim as a guest, and after Kim came to power, he said, "Mr. Kim, you're going to kill us." 金庸先生很奇怪，他並不認識丁磊，問：「你為什麼說？」 Mr. Kim was strange. He didn't know Ding. He asked him, "Why did you say so?" 丁磊回答：因為我特別喜歡看武俠小說，我高考的時候天天看武俠小說了，以至於沒考好。 Ding said, "Because I like martial arts novels, I read martial arts novels every day when I passed my exams, so I failed to do so." 其實我們都經歷過那個時代，尤其是小男孩被遊戲、武俠各種各樣的誘惑干擾到學習。 In fact, we've all been through that time, especially when little boys are being distracted by games, martial arts and all kinds of temptations. 但是我始終有個困惑，我們的教科書為什麼不能編得像金庸的武俠小說那麼精彩，或者教科書基於金庸的武俠來做個修正，告訴大家說金庸的武俠中哪些是史實，哪些不是史實。相信有這麼一本基於金庸武俠的歷史教科書，我們學歷史一定會覺得更好。 But I'm still confused as to why our teaching books can't be made as brilliant as Kim's martial arts novels, or that they are based on Kim's martial arts to make an amendment to tell you which of Kim's martial arts are historical and which are not. We'll feel better if we believe in this historical teaching book based on Kim's martial arts. 幸而，我們知道未來已經越來越數字化了，人類的未來越來越數字化，越來越是基於數字系統，基於虛擬系統的虛擬環境里去解決問題，去完成任務的。 Fortunately, we know that the future has become more digitized, and that the future of mankind has become more digitized, more and more based on the digital system, and on the virtual environment of the virtual system to solve the problem and accomplish the task. 這時候，你會發現今天的遊戲就成了為未來做準備的一個最好的工具，遊戲不再是沒有用的了，那你學的金庸小說真的對你的歷史有幫助了。 At that point, you'll find that today's game is the best tool to prepare for the future. The game is no longer useless. The golden novel you've learned really helps your history. 我們也有實際的例子，比如，美國聯邦航空管理局，他現在招聘空中交通管制員的時候，就明確提出來要招遊戲玩家。為什麼呢？空中交通管制就是對飛機的調度。現在有一大批的策略遊戲，就是在遊戲里學會調度資源，學會不出故障，學會更高效。遊戲玩得好的這些人，很有可能他來做空中交通管制就會更有效。 We also have practical examples, such as the United States Federal Aviation Authority, which, when recruiting air traffic controllers, is clearly proposing a game player. Why? Air traffic control is the tone of the aircraft. There are a lot of tactical games where people learn to adjust their resources in the game, learn how to fail, learn how to be more efficient. 在動物小時候時，遊戲是一種適應手段，比如，小熊小狼這些哺乳動物在幼年期通過遊戲學會捕獵，學會適應它們的成年生活。所以遊戲的本質目的是適應未來，適應當真正需要獨立面對社會的時候，需要掌握哪些技能。 When animals are small, games are an adaptation tool, for example, when young coyotes are able to hunt through games and learn to adapt to their adult lives. is therefore designed to adapt to the future and to the skills that need to be acquired when there is a real need for independence in the face of society. 當然，後來有一個階段，遊戲是和現實是脫節的。所幸不是遊戲慢慢變得更能適應未來社會，而是未來社會越來越遊戲化了，因為未來社會越來越數字化了，未來社會越來越強調協作，遊戲慢慢地終於回歸到它的本質目的。 Then, of course, there was a phase in which the game was out of step with reality. Fortunately, it was not the game that was slowly becoming more adaptable to the future society, but the future society was becoming more and more gamelike, because the future society was becoming more digital, the future society was becoming more cooperative, and the game was slowly returning to its very purpose. 所以，我們是在用遊戲訓練自己適應未來世界的手段。這種時候，家長再看到孩子玩遊戲的時候，就不應該很簡單粗暴的說停，而是要問孩子你這是什麼遊戲，你在訓練自己掌握什麼技能。 So, we're using games to train ourselves to fit into the future world. At this point, when parents see children playing games, they don't just say stop, but ask them what kind of games you're playing, what skills you're training yourself. 如果只是一些簡單的沒有技能提升的遊戲，可能還不應該太鼓勵，但是如果能夠訓練孩子的複雜技能，比如說協同，甚至一起來協作做更複雜的事情，那麼你是應該鼓勵的。而現在這樣的遊戲平台越來越多，我們要對未來的孩子有信心，要相信他們的判斷。 If it's just simple, unskilled games, it may not be too encouraging, but if it's possible to train children in complicated skills, for example, by agreeing, or even by doing more complicated things together, you should be encouraged. And now there are more and more games like this, and we need to have faith in the children of the future and in their judgment. 他們在遊戲里複製了自己周圍的生活環境，然後在裡面再加上自己認為可以讓環境變得更美好的元素，其實他就是在為自己未來成為一個城市設計師在做準備，所以遊戲就是對未來生活的準備。 They duplicated their surroundings in the game, and then added to it elements that they thought would make the environment a better place, but he was preparing for his future as a city designer, so the game was preparing for future life. 3.旅遊方式的改變——虛擬現實融合 3. Changes in travel patterns - virtual reality integration 我們要擴大自己的視野，還要能夠看到更廣闊的地方。我們不光要讀萬卷書，而且要行萬里路。 We need to expand our eyes, and we need to be able to see a wider place. We need to read not just a thousand volumes, but a thousand miles. 旅遊強調的第一點是體驗，因為只有出去才能獲得這種體驗。 The first point highlighted by travel is the experience, because it is the only way out that such experience can be obtained. 第二點就是分享。 The second point is sharing. 我們旅遊的時候體驗會面臨一個問題，這和當地的情況是相關的。比如，要到黃山看日出，但是陰天、雨天就看不到了，你雖然到了那個地方，但你的體驗打了折扣，所以未來世界一定是虛實結合的，實指物理世界，虛指數字世界，未來世界可以叫做數字物理融合世界（Cyber Physical System）。 When we travel, there is a problem, which is relevant to the local situation. For example, to see the sunrise in Yellow Hills, but not in the dark or in the rain, you get there, but your experience is discounted, so the future world must be virtual, the physical world, the digital world, and the future world can be called Cyber Physical System. 當我們到了那個物理世界的時候，如果數字世界的虛擬環境不夠好，還可以改一個虛擬環境讓你體驗。如果在黃山上下了雨，你帶上一個虛擬現實眼鏡，你就能看到晴天的時候黃山的日出，這時候你的體驗就豐富了。 When we get to that physical world, if the virtual environment of the digital world is not good enough, we can change it for you to experience it. If it rains on Yellow Mountain and you bring a virtual reality glasses, you can see the sunrise of Yellow Mountain when it's clear. 阿凡達是在湖南天門山一帶拍攝的，天門山的景色非常美。但你去到天門山，也得不到阿凡達所拍攝的享受，因為它是在空中拍攝的。我們的視角只能在地面上。 Afanda was filmed on the south side of Mount Tianmen, and the view of Mount Tianmen was beautiful. But when you went to Mount Tianmen, you were not able to enjoy it, because it was taken in the air. We can only see on the ground. 如何得到空中的體驗？用無人機視角就會看到以前我們完全看不到的景色，這種利用無人機帶上虛擬現實眼鏡，從無人機的視角去俯瞰世界的旅遊將會越來越多。 How to get experience in the air? With drone angles, we'll see what we've never seen before. With drones on virtual reality glasses, more and more travels from drone angles overlooking the world will take place. 旅遊者不僅希望自己得到體驗，還希望把自己體驗能夠分享出來，讓別人也能得到。很多人在旅遊的時候會拍照片，會發照片，甚至會錄視頻，但是一個更加讓人身臨其境的做法是直接提供虛擬現實的直播，頭上帶一個360度環繞的攝像頭，周圍的場景都能被你拍下來，這樣的場景也能夠實時回傳出去。 Tourists not only want to be experienced, but they want to share their experiences and be accessible to others. Many people take pictures, send pictures, even video, during travels, but one way to put people on the ground is to provide a direct virtual live feed, with a 360-degree camera on their heads, and the surrounding scenes can be filmed by you, which can also be relayed in real time. 你的朋友只要帶上虛擬現實眼鏡，不管往前往後看，都和你自己看到情況是一樣的，是身臨其境的，那麼這種時候等於朋友們就跟你一起去旅遊了。為什麼要從你的場景去看？因為每個人都對旅遊有更獨特的經驗，知道哪條線路好，知道怎麼看更有意思，未來也會產生旅遊主播。 All your friends have to do is put on virtual reality glasses, whether they go back or forth, and they're in the same situation as they see yourself, so they're traveling with you at a time like this. Why go from your scene? Because everyone has more unique experience with travel, knows which lines are better, knows how to look more interesting, and the future will be a travel host. 雖然現在主播很熱，但大多數都是在演播室里，未來的主播很可能是在路上，因為路上的風景更精彩，能讓你得到他在路上的體驗。所以，旅遊不光把他自己的人生拓展了，而且讓我們每個人的人生都得到了拓展。 It's hot now, but most of it is in the studio, and the future is probably on the way, because the scenery on the road is better, allowing you to get his experience on the road. So traveling is not just expanding his own life, but it is expanding everyone's life. 4.保持精神健康——冥想與Retreat 4. Mental health -- Meditation and Retreat 雖然我們的心嚮往遠方，但我們的身還是要待在城市裡面。城市生活的問題我們還是要去應對，比如，人群密集雖然有利於服務的提供，雖然有利於思想的碰撞，創意的產生，但是畢竟還會產生焦慮。 As far as our hearts are concerned, we still have to stay in the city. The problems of urban life have to be addressed, for example, when the population is concentrated to the benefit of service delivery, which is favourable to the impact of ideas, creativity, but anxiety after all. 怎麼解決？除了旅遊、打遊戲，我們還要更多的關注自己的內心。所以，對內心的關注也是未來科技能夠助力的一方面。 How? We need to focus more on our hearts than travel, play games. So attention to our hearts is one aspect of the future that technology can help. 冥想會越來越普及。冥想的方式可以是大家一起去冥想，打坐禪修一段時間。 Meditation is becoming more widespread. Meditation can be done by thinking together, by sitting around for a while. 另外，還有一個比較火的東西「ASMR（自發性知覺經絡反應）」，簡單說就是對大腦的按摩。大腦的神經系統有自己的思想，有自己的運行規律，聽到某種聲音就會覺得格外的愉悅，這些聲音相當於在給我們的大腦做按摩一樣，越是年輕人越對這些東西就越敏感。 In addition, there is a much more exciting thing, "AsMR," which is simply a massage of the brain. The nervous system of the brain has its own ideas, its own rules of operation, and it feels extra pleasure to hear a voice that is equivalent to a massage of our brain, and the younger people are more sensitive to it. 現在模仿ASMR聲音的APP也開始興起，更不用說有各種的輔助冥想的APP開始多起來了。但我認為更重要的是一個理念——Retreat（撤退）。這個詞在未來也會越來越熱。 APPs that imitate the sound of ASMR are starting to rise, not to mention that there are many more APPs that help meditate. But I think it's more important than that -- Retreat (evacuation). The word will also get warmer in the future. 這個理念一開始其實是在西方的一些企業裡面興起的，很多年前微軟就有一個習慣，其公司的高管每年要抽出一個星期的時間，遠離辦公室，遠離城市，到一個相對偏僻的地方去，斷掉通訊，一起去討論星辰大海。 The idea began with some businesses in the West, and many years ago Microsoft had a habit of taking a week away from the office, away from the city, off to a relatively remote place, cut off communications and discuss the stars and seas. 因為天天考慮的都是眼前的苟且，需要想一想詩和遠方，才能走得更遠。所以，直到今天微軟都還是世界最大的公司之一，經歷過很多的挫折依然能夠繼續發展，其實和它想的長遠是相關的。 Because every day it's hard to think and think about poetry and distance in order to go any further. So, to this day, Microsoft is one of the largest companies in the world, and many setbacks can continue to develop, but it's about how far it goes. 對我們每個人來說，也都需要這樣的時刻，讓我們能夠脫離日常的工作，脫離日常的煩惱，去想一想詩和遠方，去做一做Retreat。 For each and every one of us, this is also the moment to get out of our daily work, out of our daily troubles, think about poetry and far away, and do the retreat. 總結下來，提供了12個未來生活的場景，包含教育、工作、財富、健康，人居、交通、餐飲、購物和我們的各種娛樂和運動遊戲、旅遊和精神生活等方方面面，這些方面都是被科技的浪潮所改變、所優化的。 In conclusion, it provides 12 scenarios of future life, including education, work, wealth, health, habitat, transportation, catering, shopping and our various entertainment and sports games, travel and spiritual life, all of which have been changed and enhanced by the wave of technology. 五、做科技的積极參与者， V, technology enablers, 享受科技紅利 Enjoys the benefits of technology > /strong 我們每個人在中間也是一個選擇者，因為我們選擇了更好的科技來給我們帶來更好的生活，所以才使得科技推動社會進步，我們也是參與者。 Each one of us is also a choice, because we chose better technology to bring us a better life, and that's why technology drives social progress, and we're part of it. 1.跨越裂谷理論 1. Crossing the Rift Valley Theory 但參與者和參與者獲得的利益是不一致的，這涉及到跨越裂谷理論（Crossing the Chasm）。這個理論其實不是用在整個社會上的，這個理論是在20年以前，矽谷的一個很著名的營銷專家Jeffrey Moore提出來的，是用在高科技產品的推廣上的。 But the interests of participants and participants are inconsistent, and this involves crossing the Rift Valley theory. This theory is not actually used in society as a whole, but it was proposed 20 years ago by Jeffrey Moore, a well-known marketing expert in the Valley, for the promotion of high-tech products. 他發現很多高科技產品一開始剛剛上市的時候廣受歡迎，感覺特別好，但是只是熱賣了一小段時間，尤其是一開始熱賣的時候，科技企業就趕緊擴產，一擴完產以後反倒銷量急速下降，科技產品很短命就死掉了。 He found that many high-tech products were popular when they first came out of the market, and it felt so good, but it was just a little bit of a boom, especially when they started selling, when technology firms were expanding, and when it was expanded, sales fell so fast, that technology products died after a very short period of time. 他總結出了這種現象的原因：他將所有人群分成5類人，最領先一類人叫創新者（Innovator）；另外一類是早期採用者（Early Adapter），他們特別願意應用新產品，使用新產品，這兩類人就是高科技產品的第一批用戶。所以很多高科技產品因為性能很優秀，所以上來就有了這批用戶，才會一上來就有一個高速的市場增長。 He summarized the reasons for this: he divided all the groups into five categories, the first being Innovator, and the other was Early Adapter, who was especially interested in new products and new ones, which were the first users of high-tech products. So many high-tech products, because of their excellent performances, had this user base, and there was a high-speed market growth. 但是很不幸，後面的主流用戶分成早期主流、晚期主流和拖後腿的用戶，後面三類用戶和前面這兩類用戶的行為習慣很不一樣，他不會因為你的性能很好就去使用你，而是會看我的使用體驗是不是得到滿足，是不是很舒服。別人用不用是看社會行為，他是自己能得到滿足才會去使用。 Unfortunately, the mainstream users in the back are divided into early mainstream, late mainstream and backward-legged users, and the three categories of users in the back are very different from the previous ones. He will not use you because of your good performance, but rather will see if my experience is satisfied and comfortable. Others will use it without looking at social behavior. 很多先進科技品一開始時，它的使用體驗是有瑕疵的，雖然性能很優秀，但是有很多的應用部分是需要完善，需要優化的。 At the beginning of many advanced technologies, the experience of their use was flawed and, while performance was excellent, there were many applications that needed to be perfected and refined. 這種時候的大量用戶都是來自於早期使用者，但是因為性能不夠，因為性能雖然過關，但是體驗不夠好，所以主流用戶不使用。你這時候擴產，實際上就加速了企業的財務問題，甚至企業可能破產。 A large number of users at this time come from early users, but because performance is inadequate, because performance is not good, but it is not good enough for mainstream users to use. By expanding your production at this time, you actually accelerate the financial problems of businesses, even when they may be bankrupt. 2.參與者獲益模式 2. Participant benefits mode 五類人因科技而獲得的益處是不一樣的。 The benefits of technology are different for the five categories of people. 第五類人，先進科技給他帶來的都是負面，因為科技給別人帶來了好處的時候，整個社會因為科技而提升的時候，他落伍了，所以科技對他是負面的。 The fifth category of people, advanced technology, brought him negative aspects, because when technology brought benefits to others, when the whole society was raised by technology, he was left behind, so technology was negative to him. 早期主流和晚期主流都是別人都用了才用，科技給他帶來的收益是平均的，談不上額外的好處。 Early and late mainstream use by others, and the benefits that technology brings to him are even and not enough good. 所以，科技真正給主動使用者帶來好處。這些主動使用者可能在使用的時候還要跨越很多障礙。這種時候就會有一個心態造成人的分野： So technology really brings benefits to the primary users. These primary users may have to cross a lot of barriers when they use them. 一種心態是科技不好使，所以我不用它，這類人就是主流用戶或者是拖後腿的用戶； There's a mindset that's not good for technology, so I don't use it. They're either mainstream or backward users; 另一種心態是科技還不好使，還不完善，如果我主動研究如何更好地使用它，如何改進它，我就最早受益，而且可以利用受益來擴大科技的影響，擴大規模，使我更加地受益，變成一個馬太效應，那麼這一類人就會因此而受益，這類人是早期使用者和創新者。 The other is that technology is not yet easy or perfect, and if I focus on how to make better use of it and how to improve it, I will be the first to benefit, and I can use the benefits to expand the impact of the big technology, expand the scale, and make me more useful as a horse, and this kind of person will benefit from it, as early users and creators. 整個社會裡，不可能所有人都是創新者，也不可能所有人都是早期使用者，大多數人是主流用戶，包括早期主流、晚期主流。大致上創新者只佔人群里2.5%，早期使用者只佔百分人群里的13.5%。所以任何先進科技，第一個考慮使用的人群也就16%。所以先進科技來最先受益的就是這16%的人群，雖然他付出了，但是他的回報也格外大。 In society as a whole, it is not possible for all to be creative and for all to be early users, most of them to be mainstream users, including early mainstream and late mainstream users. More or less creative people make up only 2.5 per cent of the population, while early users make up only 13.5 per cent of the population. So the first group to consider using any advanced technology is 16 per cent. 從歷史看，科技一直在推動社會進步，但為什麼社會的主流聲音總是反科技的，因為主流的用戶不是科技最大的受益者。 Historically, technology has been driving social progress, but why is the mainstream voice in society always anti-technology because mainstream users are not the biggest beneficiaries of technology? 而我們就要面臨一個選擇：我們是要做主流用戶，還是我要做主動的使用者？我相信你已經有了答案。 And we have a choice: are we going to be mainstream users or I going to be the users? I believe you already have an answer. 科技就是未來，早使用科技就早進入未來，早進入未來就會早獲益，所以我們給你的建議是：看懂未來，主動行動，當你擁抱未來的時候，你就會成為生活的贏家，你就會成為你自己的主宰者，因為你對未來自有準備，當然也就最獲益。 Technology is the future. It's the future. It's the future. It's the future. It's the future. So the advice we give you is: sees the future, acts. When you embrace the future, you'll be the winner of life, and you'll be the master of your own life, because you're not prepared for it, of course it's the best. 主動分成兩個層次，第一個層次，只做一個使用者，任何先進科技都使用，但不參與產業；第二個層次，不僅使用，還要參與在產業當中。 The main initiative is divided into two layers, the first layer, one user, and any advanced technology is used but not in the industry; the second layer, not only in the industry, but also in the industry. 如何參與產業？我們首先就要理解產業的本質規律，所以我們再給大家講一講產業的規律。 How to get involved in the industry? First, we have to understand the nature of the industry, so let's tell you about it. 六、服務規模化的產業規律 6. Service-based industry regulations 現在的階段是從過去的工業革命以來的產品規模化，進入到了數字革命以來的服務規模化階段。 The current phase is the modulation of products from the industrial revolution of the past, into the modulation of services from the digital revolution. 所謂的規模化是廣泛覆蓋，服務的定義不是簡單的服務，不是低端服務，而是很高端、很複雜，需要耗很多智力的服務，尤其這種服務要針對每個人做個性化的推薦。 The so-called typologies are extensive, and the definition of services is not simple services, not low-end services, but high-end, complex services that require a lot of intellectual attention, especially in terms of individualizing references to each individual. 比如，好管家絕不是對所有的家庭和所有的情況都做同樣的建議，一定是針對你的現狀給出最準確的建議。 For example, good housekeepers are not exactly the same advice for all families and for all situations, but must be the most accurate advice about your current situation. 1.服務規模化的底層支撐——4個現代化 1. Service modulation bottom support -- 4 modernizations 那為什麼今天能實現？因為有4個現代化做支持。 So why is it happening today? Because there are four modern ways to support it. 第一，數據化。所有的數字革命的起源是上世紀70年代， PC個人計算機和軟體帶來的。有了PC，有了軟體，我們的工作生活都和電腦聯繫起來了，都被電腦記錄下來了，你的所有行為都被數據化了。 Number One, Data. The origins of all the digital revolutions of
第二，智能化。過去這10年中，人工智慧系統突飛猛進。現在計算機深度學習系統和人腦的思維方式非常相似。人腦理解外部世界的時候，大腦是鎖在顱骨裡面的一個黑匣子，大腦和外部世界的連接就是神經，神經唯一能感受的是電信號。 In the last 10 years, the A.R.S. system has developed dramatically. The computer depth system is now very similar to the thinking of the human brain. When the brain understands the outside world, the brain is a black box locked in the skull, and the brain and the outside world connect are neurosynthetic, the only thing that the neuroses can feel is electrical signals. 電信號通過神經傳導以後，就對外部世界形成一個模擬，並不是我們直接的直觀感受到外部世界，而是把數據輸入進來以後，在大腦里重新構建了一個外部世界。 After the transmission of the telecoms, a simulation of the outside world was created, not by our direct visualization of the outside world, but by entering the data into it and reconstructing the outside world in the brain. 當然，我們對外部世界的構建很精確，以至於基本上是真實的，以至於和外部世界互動基本上反映了真實外部世界情況。所以，人工智慧已經至少在一定層次上去模仿人類智能了，只要外部有大量數據輸入，像我們大腦一樣，一旦有一些電信號的輸入，它就能夠處理還原了解外部世界情況，並且做出決策。 Of course, we are very precise about the outside world, so basically real, so interacting with the outside world basically reflects the real external world. So, artificial intelligence already mimics human intelligence on at least a certain level, so as long as there is a large amount of data input from the outside, as in our brain, it can handle and make decisions about the external world once there is some signal input. 人工智慧就相當於一個可能還沒有那麼強大的大腦的複製品，一旦有外部的數據輸入，它就能夠對環境產生感知。 Artificial intelligence is equivalent to a copy of a brain that may not yet be strong, and once external data are entered, it can create a perception of the environment. 人類的駕駛能力是經過一定的訓練，就能對環境做出判斷，開車是安全的。而自動駕駛是通過外部數據的採集（如激光雷達，視覺攝像頭等）並把這些數據輸入到人工智慧系統中，人工智慧系統也能把人安全高效地從A點送到B點。 Humans are trained in driving to determine the environment, and driving is safe. Autopilots are taken through external data collections (e.g. laser radar, visual cameras, etc.) and fed into artificial intelligence systems, which bring people safely and efficiently from point A to point B. 有了數據，再用類腦的系統用數據訓練就可得到智能化的決策能力，我們可以得到高端的智能服務了。 With the data, we can get smart decision-making with data training in a brain-type system, and we can get high-end intelligence services. 第三，泛在化。即要無所不在的把這些服務提供出來。 Third, generalization. provides these services everywhere. 無所不在提供服務有很多先決條件。 There are many pre-conditions for the ubiquitous provision of services. 首先，要有無所不在的網路。當網路覆蓋無所不在以後，下一步希望智能也無所不在，這就需要邊緣計算。智力的分布不光要輸入數據，還要對數據進行處理，也就是算力。 First, there must be an ubiquitous network. The next step is to expect intelligence to be everywhere when the network is covered. This requires a margin calculation. The distribution of intelligence is not just about entering data, but also about processing data, that is to say, arithmetic. 算力的分布現在分成三個層面： The distribution of arithmetic is now divided into three layers: 一個層面就是中心層，雲計算層面往往需要建很大的計算中心，甚至現在很多大規模計算中心的耗電量就相當於一個小型城市，耗電量是巨大的。 One layer is the central one, where cloud computing often requires a large computing centre, and even now many large-scale centres consume as much electricity as a small city, with huge power consumption. 還有一個層面是終端，在每一個需要計算的終端就是現場需要解決的，現場需要計算能力。比如，一輛自動駕駛的汽車的車裡就要有一定的計算能力。有多少GPU決定了其智能化水平。激光雷達是採集周圍環境的一個工具，採集的環境有計算能力做分析，車的智慧水平才會高。 There is another layer of end-point, where each end in which calculations are needed needs to be solved on the spot. For example, a self-driving car has to have a certain calculator in it. How many GPUs determine their level of intelligence. Laser radar is a tool for gathering the surrounding environment, which is capable of calculating and analysing it, so that cars have a high level of intelligence. 但是現在中間還有一層就是在終端相關的一片領域，比如我們室內環境可能布設了很多的感測器，每個感測器都會收集數據，甚至會做一系列的簡單的計算處理，把數據上傳到雲端。 But there's still one level in the middle that's at the end of the spectrum, such as the fact that there may be a lot of sensors in our inner environment, and that every sensor collects data and even does a series of simple calculations to upload data to cloud ends. 如果這麼多感測器連在一起，每個感測器都在計算能力，是不現實的。所以，邊緣區是在屋子裡一個有計算能力，收集了所有的感測器數據來做邊緣計算，然後再返回到中央去。 If so many sensors are connected, it's not realistic for each sensor to be able to calculate. So, the edge zone is in one of the rooms, where all the sensor data are collected for the edge calculation, and then back to the center. 所以，三個層次就是雲端、邊端、終端。這三個地方都要有計算能力，同時有通訊的覆蓋能力，就能實現所有的數據的採集分析決策的泛在化。 So, the three layers are clouds, edges, end ends. All three places have to be calculatory, with the ability to cover communications at the same time, so that the integration of all data collection and analysis decisions can be realized. 第四，服務化。當這些一切都能成立的時候，就可以實時給用戶提供智能化的服務了。它給用戶提供的不是產品，而是提供一個服務，產品和服務的區別是產品還需要用戶自己做事情才能得到那個服務，而服務是個終極狀態。 Fourth, service. , when all this works, provides users with intelligent services in real time. It provides a service, not a product, but a service. The difference between a product and a service is that the user has to do something to get it, and the service is an end state. 比如，你想要吃冰鎮西瓜。在產品化的階段是賣你一個冰箱，自己回家把西瓜冰鎮。現在服務規模化已經在一定程度上實現了，就是外賣小哥帶來的。 For example, you want to eat iced watermelon. You sell one of your refrigerators at the product stage, you go home and put watermelon ice in your own house. Now it's a little bit modulated, that's what the takeout guy brought you. 比如，要做美甲。現在要麼約人上門，要麼去美甲店，這不是服務規模化的一個特點。未來是一個美甲印表機，由機器人送到你們家門口，你約上一個美甲服務，你選好圖案，半小時不到，一個機器人馱著美甲印表機到你們家門口你把手伸到印表機里，圖案就打到你的指甲上，這就是服務規模化的特點。 For example, to make nails. Now, if you ask someone to come to the door, or go to the nail shop, it's not a feature of the service. The future is a nail printer, sent to your door by a robot, you have a nail service, you pick it, you have less than half an hour, a robot comes to your door with a nail on it, and it hits you on the fingernail, which is a feature of the service. 2.支持服務規模化的3個生態 2. Support services . 要滿足這點，大前提是需要各個方面的產業生態來支持，今天的科技產業已經是生態化了，一系列的生態協調在一起，構成了大的科技浪潮。解決支持服務規模化有下面這三個生態： To satisfy this, the premise is that it will need to be supported by all sectors of industry, which today is bio-institutionalized, and a series of bio-collaboratives that together constitute a major technological wave. The following three are the three types of approaches to support service typologies: 第一，大數據。在數字化時代，數據就是石油。時時刻刻能夠產生數據的系統更有價值，時時刻刻能夠收集數據的系統更有價值，甚至未來會有一類人叫做數據獵頭，他到處挖掘新的數據來源，讓你能夠得到這些數據，因為你得到數據以後就可以更加精準的做出分析來，就可以提供更好的服務。 First, big data. , in digitizing times, data is oil.
第二，智能化。人工智慧潮流也很重要，過去這些年由於有新的一輪人工智慧的潮流，尤其是深度學習帶來人工智慧突飛猛進，使得我們至少在單項領域的經驗能夠被固化下來。 Second, Intelligentity. Artificial wisdom flows are also important, as the past few years have been marked by a new wave of artificial intelligence, especially in the light of the rapid advances in artificial intelligence brought about by in-depth learning, enabling our experience in at least one field to be solidified. 只集中在某一項的人工智慧，就比這項里做這件事最好的人都要強。不光是阿爾法狗戰勝了李世石，而且人工智慧的遊戲系統還戰勝了最好的遊戲玩家，因為遊戲實際上是在單項里複雜處理。 It's better to concentrate on one piece of AI than the best person to do it. Not only did the Alpha Dog beat Lee Shizuki, but the AI's game system beat the best gamers, because the game is actually handled in a single way. 第三，雲計算。現在不管是4G、5G，還是寬頻覆蓋，加上WiFi的終端覆蓋，雲計算使得整個計算系統布局更加合理。所以有了大數據，有了人工智慧，有了雲計算就會造成智能是無所不在的。 third, cloud computing. Whether it is now 4G, 5G, or wide coverage, and with WiFi's end-of-life coverage, cloud computing makes the entire computing system more rational. So, with big data, artificial intelligence, cloud computing makes intelligence everywhere. 七、元宇宙的真正價值是虛實結合的應用 The real value of the meta-cosmos is the application of fictional convergence 現在有一個大熱點叫做元宇宙，簡直熱的一塌糊塗。但是從現在開始到很長一段時間之後，元宇宙熱的東西和真正的價值是不匹配的，也就是說大家認為的元宇宙價值，與它的實際價值是有偏差的。 Now there's a big hot spot called the meta-cosmos, and it's a very hot mess. But from now on to a very long time, what's hot in the meta-cosmos does not match the real value, that is to say, the value of the meta-cosmos is considered to be different from its real value. 1.虛擬人：元宇宙熱的風口 1. Virtual humans: a hot wind vent in the Won Universe 元宇宙熱中有一個話題是虛擬人，現在技術的發展使得人臉模擬做的越來越好，虛擬人也越來越普及，也越來越標準化。因此，虛擬人的使用門檻會越來越低，也許明年會出現一大堆的虛擬人主播。 One of the topics in the heat of the Won Universe is virtual humans, and the technology is now making human face simulations better, more popular and more standard. As a result, virtual people’s use of doors will be lower, and perhaps there will be a lot of virtual anchors next year. 這件事情叫做風口的必然現象，有風口必然帶來泡沫，泡沫必然會過熱。我們又不是能因噎廢食，有泡沫就說是沒有意義的。因為元宇宙有更核心的價值，讓數據有了更加豐富的積累。 This is called the inevitable reality of the wind vents, which bring bubbles, and the bubbles, which are too hot. We can't choke on waste foods, and the bubbles are meaningless. Because the meta-cosmos has a more central value, it makes the data more abundant. 互聯網為人類的進步提供了一個強大的助力，從軟體時代開始，我們把知識沉澱成數據知識、數字知識，讓知識能夠顯性化了。顯性化以後又有了互聯網，這些知識被連接起來，放到網上變成了一個無所不在的知識庫，這個知識庫逐漸成為人類所有優勢的核心。 The Internet has provided a powerful boost to human progress, and from the time of software we have developed knowledge into digital knowledge, digital knowledge, and knowledge to make it visible. The visibility has been followed by a network, which has been connected and placed on the Internet into an ubiquitous knowledge base, which has become the core of all human strengths. 2.元宇宙的本質：人類知識的積累體系 2. Nature of the meta-cosmos: the cumulative system of human knowledge 沒有一個人能掌握所有的知識，但是把每個人掌握的知識聯繫到一起的時候，我們又能幹任何一個人都幹不成的事，比如人類登上月球。 None of us has all the knowledge, but when we connect everyone's knowledge, we can do anything that no one can do, like humans on the moon. 過去，人類成功登月了，現在又在重啟登月計劃，未來會有越來越多的人登上月球。但是你認真想一想，登上月球的需要的知識極其複雜，基本上不太可能有一個人能夠掌握登上月球需要的所有知識。 In the past, humans have successfully gone to the moon, and now they are restarting the moon, and more and more people are going to go to the moon in the future. But if you think about it, the knowledge of what is needed to get to the moon is so complicated that it is almost impossible for one person to have all the knowledge needed to get to the moon. 能夠讓人成功登月的知識在很多人各自的頭腦里，但是你用一個方式使得這些知識被連接起來，而且被協同起來，你就能完成任何一個個人都幹不成的事。 Knowledge that makes the moon a success is in the minds of a lot of people, but in one way you connect it, and in one way you get it together, you can do anything that no one person can do. 所以，人類的偉大之處不在於某個偉人，不在於某個牛人，而在於我們這個群體。我們每個人也可以因為我們的獨特貢獻使得整個人類文化向前發展。 So the greatness of mankind lies not in a great man, but in a great man, but in a group of us. Each of us can move the entire human culture forward because of our unique contribution. 過去，互聯網承擔了知識積累體系的作用，未來這個知識積累體系的名字就叫元宇宙。 In the past, the Internet has assumed the role of the knowledge accumulation system, which in the future will be called the meta-cosmos. 一開始的知識積累如果以文字、圖片為主，更多的知識積累是以關鍵詞，以內容為核心來形成一個網路系統的，這時查找相關的知識靠的是搜索。 At the beginning of the process, if text and pictures are the main sources of knowledge, more knowledge and accumulation are key words that form a network system with content at its core, and the search for relevant knowledge is based on a search. 到了社交網路時代，圖片、視頻、聲音、音頻越來越多，這時，知識和知識的關聯方式發生了轉變，變成了人際關係。所以Facebook起來了，你要查找相關的知識，你要找相關專家，你要學會先找到一個專家，然後通過他找到其他的專家，或者找到這些專家聚群的地方，最後通過專家或專家聚集地找到你要的知識。 In the social networking era, when more images, videos, voices, and audio are becoming available, the way knowledge and knowledge are connected has changed and become interpersonal. So Facebook rises, you have to look for relevant knowledge, you have to find an expert, you have to learn to find another expert, then you have to find another expert, or you have to find a place where these specialists are gathered, and you have to find what you want, either through an expert or an expert. 元宇宙能夠把虛實結合起來，也就是將物理世界和虛擬世界疊加起來，這時你會發現，我可以圍繞物理實體組織和沉澱大量的知識。 When the meta-cosmos combines the physical world with the virtual world, you find that I can be surrounded by physical reality and a great deal of knowledge. 3.虛實結合的元宇宙 3. Virtually integrated meta-cosmos 很多時候，我們可以用遊戲為參照來看社會的演化。比如在遊戲里你要找人PK，你總要先看他的參數，比如血量、技能值、戰鬥力值等等，然後決定要不要跟他PK。但是在真實世界裡，對方頭上沒有這些數字。 In many cases, we can use the game as a reference to the evolution of society. In the game, for example, you need to find a PK, and you have to look at his parameters, such as blood, skill, combat values, and so on, and then decide whether or not to go with the PK. But in the real world, there are no such numbers on the other side. 我經常有這樣的困惑，因為工作關係認識了很多朋友，但是我臉盲，我知道這人一定見過，但記不得他的名字。當別人很熱情地向我走過來的時候，我格外尷尬。 I'm always so confused because I know a lot of friends at work, but I'm blind, and I know this guy must have seen it, but I don't remember his name. I'm particularly embarrassed when people come to me with a lot of enthusiasm. 如果元宇宙實現了，我帶上一個增強現實的眼鏡，一方面能夠讓對方的形象透過來，另一方面眼鏡上有個系統能夠幫我識別對方的人臉，然後在我的資料庫里調出來對方的信息，包括姓名、我在什麼地方見過他、他什麼時候生日、他有什麼興趣愛好等等。 If the Woncos were to be realized, I would bring with me an enhanced and realistic pair of glasses that, on the one hand, would bring the image of each other through, and on the other hand, a system that would help me identify each other's faces and then bring out in my database information about each other, including names, where I've seen him, when he's birthday, what he's interested in, and so on. 這就是基於實體世界，把虛擬數據跟實體世界關聯起來的一種方式。 That's one way to connect virtual data to the real world based on the real world. 一方面是交聯方式提升了，有更多的關聯方式，另一方面有大量的數據夠沉積進來，我們叫它數字孿生，是一種對現實世界的模擬——把大量物理世界裡的東西數字化，放到虛擬世界裡。 On the one hand, linkages have been raised, there have been more connections, and on the other hand, there is a lot of data to sink in, and we call it digital creation, a simulation of the real world — a digitization of a lot of things in the physical world and a virtual world. 數據的豐富程度大大增加，數據的關聯程度大大增加，全人類的知識就進行了又一次升級，所以元宇宙是人類整體能力的一次大升級。 The abundance of data has increased significantly, the correlation has increased significantly, the knowledge of the whole human race has been upgraded again, so the `strong' meta-cosm is a major increase in the overall human capacity. 八、機器人是未來社會的底層操作系統 因為能力升級，我們把更多的人類經驗沉澱下來，就會訓練出比人類的服務能力更強的超級服務者，為我們提供最優的服務。 By increasing our capabilities, we sink more human experience and train super-servers who are more capable than humans to provide us with the best services. 但是，除了虛擬化提供，還要有實體化的提供。外賣小哥送餐到家就是一種實體的服務能力，當然，我們也看到現在有機器人送餐員。 But, in addition to virtualization, there is a need for physical delivery. The ability to deliver meals home is an actual service, and, of course, we see robots delivering meals now. 1.機器臂是機器人的大方向 The robot's arm is the main direction of the robot. 一說起機器人，很多人就會想到終結者里的人形機器人，有很強的智慧。不是這樣的，簡單來說，只要具備三個能力就可以被當成機器人：感知能力、分析能力、運動能力。 When you talk about robots, a lot of people think about the human robots in the end, and they have great wisdom. No, in short, they can be considered robots with only three capabilities: perception, analysis, exercise. 感知能力，它能夠根據環境做出反饋；分析能力，就是對環境做出感知，對數據進行分析；運動能力，能夠根據分析判斷完成決策動作。 Sensitivity, which is counterproductive to the environment; analytical ability, which is to understand the environment and analyse the data; and motor ability, which enables the decision to be made on the basis of the analysis. 凡是有感知能力、分析能力和運動能力就叫機器人，甚至這三個能力可以不在一處。未來你家裡可能就是個機器人系統，感知能力來自牆上裝的感測器、攝像頭，分析能力是家裡的電腦，運動能力是安在桌面上的台式機器臂。通過一個內部區域網，三個分開的設備間就能合在一起成為一個機器人。 It's called a robot, analytic, and exerciseable. In the future, your home may be a robotic system. It's a sensor, a camera, a computer, and a robotic arm that's installed on the desktop. Through an internal area network, three separate settings can be combined to become a robot. 未來的機器人會越來越多，而且會廣泛出現在各個地方。甚至我們一直強調，未來能夠比大疆還大的下一個企業可能就是生產機器臂的企業。因為未來每家每戶一定都會安裝台式機器臂。可能安裝在廚房幫你做飯做菜，可能安裝在洗手台幫你洗碗，可能安裝在書桌幫你處理桌面…台式機器臂的廣泛使用為期不遠了。 The future robots will be more and more available everywhere. Even we have been insisting that the next enterprise that will be bigger than the Greater Territory is probably the one that produces the robotic arm. Because every house in the future will be equipped with a desktop arm. It may be installed in a kitchen to cook for you. It may be installed in a washing counter to wash your dishes. It may be installed in a desk to handle the desktop #8230; the general use of the desktop arm is not far away. 2.自動駕駛汽車也是機器人 2. Auto-driving car is also a robot. 在如果按剛才的條件來衡量，自動駕駛汽車也是機器人，激光雷達、攝像頭是有感知能力的，車裡有晶元、CPU、GPU，運算能力越來越強，運動能力就更不用說了，它的輪子可以把你送到你想去的地方。 If, as measured by the conditions, the autopilot car is also a robot, laser radar, cameras are perceptive, the car has crystals, CPUs, GPUs, and it's getting more and more mobile, let alone the wheels that can take you where you want to be. 最近特斯拉的估值又創新高，很多人說特斯拉的估值太荒唐了，因為特斯拉已經等於「通用 福特 豐田 其它汽車公司」的市值的好幾倍。 Tesla's valuation has recently been newly high, and many say that Tesla's valuation is ridiculous, because Tesla is already equal to several times the market value of the "Universal Ford Toyota Other Car Company." 如果你認為特斯拉只是一個汽車公司，你說的對，他被高估了。如果你知道電動車往後發展必然是自動駕駛，自動駕駛又等於是機器人，而特斯拉在今年專門發布了一款人形機器人。從這意義上講，特斯拉其實是一個機器人公司。 If you think Tesla's just a car company, you're right, he's overestimated. If you know that electric cars are going backwards, they're going to be autopilots, they're going to be robots, and Tesla's running a human robot this year. In that sense, Tesla is actually a robot company. 未來，機器人的數量會大大超越人的數量，機器人公司的價值也會大大超越汽車公司的價值，因為今天全世界汽車的保有量不過20億部，而地球上有70億人。但是未來機器人的數量會超過70億，這個一個更大的市場。 In the future, the number of robots will far exceed the number of humans, and the value of robotic companies will far exceed that of car companies, because today there are only 2 billion cars in the world and 7 billion people on Earth. But in the future, there will be more robots than 7 billion, a bigger market. 為什麼說自動駕駛是機器人呢？我們都知道今天你開車上班要考慮一件頭疼的事——停車。甚至因為停車，每月要付費的錢還不低。在未來，如果你有一輛自動駕駛汽車，你開車上班到站後，只要下個指令自動駕駛汽車就會像滴滴一樣上街載客，幫你掙錢去了。等你下班的時候，你的車又回來等著你。 Why say the autopilot is a robot? We all know that today you're driving to work with a headache -- stop the car. Even because you're parking, the monthly cost is not too low. In the future, if you have a auto-driving car, you'll drive to the station, as long as the next order is to drive the auto-driving car on the street like a drop-in, and help you earn money. When you get off work, your car will come back for you. 3.機器人的酒店服務工作 3. Robotic hotel service 現在最大的酒店服務機器公司叫雲跡，雲跡的CEO支濤就講過： The biggest hotel service machine now is called Clouds, and the clouded CEO said: 我就跟他開玩笑說：「你是黑心的資本家，因為你不給員工一分錢，員工掙的工資都成了你的收入利潤。」 So I made a joke to him, "You're a black-hearted capitalist, because you don't give a penny to an employee, and his wages are your earnings." 這恰恰是面向未來最好的業務模式，能做成這件事的人，需要具備機器智商。支濤的成功是她的機器智商特別高，知道怎麼調動機器幫自己掙錢。 This is precisely the best business model for the future, and anyone who can do it needs to have a machine IQ. The success of the support is that she has a very high machine IQ and knows how to turn the machine around to help make her own money. 所以，未來機器人世界是格外美好的，尤其是隨著人工智慧水平的提升，隨著機器人水平的提升。 So the future robotic world is particularly good, especially as the level of artificial intelligence rises and the level of robotics rises. 我們身邊也能看到了越來越多的機器人，我相信大家在酒店都見過機器人，在餐廳見過送餐機器人，在商場見過導購機器人。 We've seen more and more robots around us, and I'm sure you've seen robots in hotels, food delivery robots in restaurants, guide robots in malls. 我們認為，未來機器人就是城市的底層操作系統，因為有了機器人的服務，我們從日常的繁重工作中解放出來，可以專註於自己想做的事情上。 We believe that the future robot is the city's bottom operating system, because with the services of the robot, we are free from our daily heavy work and can focus on what we want to do. 當然，要實現這個底層操作系統，就需要大量的協同，需要從技術角度去實現。這是一個龐大的產業，它的特點是生態化，需要靠一群企業的協調才能形成產業生態。 Of course, realizing this bottom operating system will require a great deal of collaboration and technology. It's a big industry, with a special focus on bio-image, and it will require a group of companies to work together to create an industry. 九、數字孿生為先進位造帶來革命 nine, numbers are born to bring revolution to the forward. >/strang > 1.生態競爭的木桶理論 . Biologically competing barrel theory 任何一個產業剛剛生成的時候，它需要N多元素一起來組成，使這個產業能夠運轉，就是大家一起來拼一個木桶。一個產業剛新興的時候是沒有長板的，每塊木板都很短，關鍵是木板能不能第一時間參與進來拼這個木桶。 When any industry has just been created, it needs a multi-element of N to make it work, and it's a barrel that we're all going to put together. When an industry is new, there's no longboard, and every piece of wood is short, and the point is whether the board can be involved in the first time that it works. 如果你介入了，大家就會一起伴隨這個產業生態的成長而成長，也就是在協作過程中，每一塊板都會逐漸增長，最後形成一個大的生態時，每一塊板都變成了長板。 If you get involved, you'll all grow together with the growth of the industry, that is, in the process of working together, each plate will grow and grow and, finally, a big one will grow, and each one will become a long sheet. 每一個長板不是先天就具備的長板，而是在和別人的協作過程當中，通過協作逐漸的長成的長板，早期的參與和長期的深度協作才是真正重要的必要條件。 Each board is not a pre-existing longboard, but rather a long board that grows over time in a process of collaboration with others, where early participation and long-term in-depth collaboration are truly essential requirements. 2.從木桶理論看彎道超車 2. Cross-carriage from barrel theory 一直以來，中國在晶元產業受制於人，很多專家都在論證如何不再受制於人。如果你懂產業生態，其實這個問題提錯了。因為過去以CPU為主的晶元產業在形成的時候，中國基本上沒有參與，所以在整個產業生態形成的時候，任何一個板都沒有中國。 China has always been dominated by the crystal industry, and many experts have argued that it is no longer the case. If you know how the industry works, the question is wrong. Because China was largely absent at the time of the formation of the former CPU-based crystal industry, there was no board in China at the time of the creation of the whole industry. 所以，中國的策略叫技術替代和進口替代。這塊板很長，我替代它，那塊板很長，我替代它，但是整個木桶的生態都是人家構建起來的，即使你已經替代了好多塊板，人家依然能找出一些板來控制你。 So, China's strategy is called technical substitution and import substitution. This panel is long, I replace it, I replace it, but the whole barrel is built, and even if you have replaced a lot of panels, they can still find some boards to control you. 比如手機、電腦等使用晶元的終端產品，中國都已經想辦法做了替代，但是那些很窄的板，比如光刻機，中國之前就沒有替代它。 For example, mobile phones, computers and other end-products that use crystals, China has tried to replace them, but these narrow panels, such as light cuts, have not replaced them before. 當你不能夠對生態當中每一塊板實現完整替代的時候，生態里總有一些因素能夠制約你的發展。那麼，未來如何擺脫這種制約？ When you can't make a complete replacement for every plate in the lifestyle, there's always a number of factors that can regulate your development. So, how do you get rid of it? 我們也不用太擔心，因為產業生態總是在不斷向前發展，以前重要的技術在未來就不那麼重要了。未來，我們將進入到以異構計算為核心的系統晶元競爭時代，也就是系統晶元里不止一個CPU，而是一堆CPU和專用晶元組合起來的晶元系統的競爭時代。在這個時代里，傳統優勢就不那麼明顯了，也就意味著產業出現了可以超車的彎道。 We don’t have to worry too much, because the industry is always moving forward, and the technology that was important before is not so important in the future. In the future, we will enter the age of the system’s crystals competition, which is centred on the anthropological calculations, that is to say, more than one CPU in the system’s crystals, but a bunch of CPUs and a crystals system that specializes in crystals. 中國要在產業競爭當中取得優勢，就要研究哪個產業已經出現了彎道，因為直道是沒有超車機會的。在彎道出現新生態的時候布局整個產業生態，在每一個領域都布上自己的板，當這個生態發展起來的時候，每個板都會形成長板，我們不再被人制約。 In order for China to achieve an advantage in the industrial competition, it will have to look at which industry has turned, because there is no chance of going overboard. When it turns out to be new, the whole industry has its own board in every field, and when it develops, each board will form a long board, and we will no longer be contracted. 3.市場是技術和文化的相互選擇 The market is a technological and cultural choice for each other 我們要用不同理論的思考我們的機會和定位，首先要找到未來的產業生態是什麼，然後找到未來產業生態里我的地位和角色，這裡就不完全是指技術，還需要大量的協作決策，大量的市場營銷宣傳，甚至客戶需求的挖掘等。 We need to think about our opportunities and our location with different theories, first to find out what the future industry is, and then to find my place and role in the future industry, which is not exactly technology, but also a great deal of concerted decision-making, a lot of marketing and even customer demand digging. 微軟和英特爾公司曾經有過短暫的聯盟，聯盟的原因是雖然intel的晶元發展速度足夠快，但是需求沒有起來，所以它需要微軟把自己的軟體做得更複雜，使用軟體的時候就把技術需求提上去了。 Microsoft and Intel used to have short alliances because, although the crystals of Intel are growing fast enough, demand is not rising, so it needs to make its software more complex, bringing technology needs up when it is used. 很多時候，這個市場不是技術來決定的，而是技術和文化的相互選擇。所以技術也要把自己變成應用，也要有市場能夠去為技術尋找到應用的人群。 In many cases, the market is not a technical decision, but a technological and cultural choice. So technology has to turn itself into an appliance, as well as a market where people can find it. Facebook是一個迅速成功的重要範例，扎克伯格19歲開始創業，8年時間公司市值就達到2000多億。不是說扎克伯格的技術能力很強，而是扎克伯格知道互聯網在階段叫社交網路階段，他找到了一個社交網路，讓大家能夠聯繫起來。 Facebook is an important example of rapid success, with Zuckerberg starting out at the age of 19, with a market value of more than 200 billion over eight years. Not to say that Zuckerberg is highly skilled, but Zuckerberg knows that the Internet is called a social networking segment, and he has found a social network that allows us to connect. 未來最大的機會取決於為技術找到新的應用，因為每個新的技術都有新的應用。未來最成功的企業家未必是技術專家，而是更懂用戶的那個人。 The best chance for the future is to find new applications for technology, because every new technology has new applications. The most successful future entrepreneur is not necessarily a technologist, but a better user. 未來的心理學家、未來的社會學家、未來的人類學家很有可能在技術競爭中脫穎而出，因為他們最懂得如何把技術優勢發揮到淋漓盡致，當然，這也需要一點點跨領域，因為完全不懂技術的人類學家也不能夠找到技術最大的優勢。 Future psychologists, future sociologists, and future anthropologists are likely to emerge from the technical competition, because they know best how to maximize the technological advantage, which, of course, also requires a little cross-domain, because anthropologists who do not know the technology at all cannot find the greatest technological advantage. 4.數字孿生助力先進位造 4. Numerical helpers pre-made 福特的時代是硬體的時代，微軟的時代是軟體時代，而現在這個時代是軟硬融合的時代。數字技術的發展，不光推動了軟體的進步，推動了智能化的進步，同時也推動了硬體的進步。 Ford's time is the age of hardware, and the time of Microsoft is the time of software, and now it is the time of soft and hard integration. The development of digital technology has not only pushed the progress of software, but also the progress of intelligence, as well as the progress of hardware. 軟體有一個特別好的開發方法叫快速迭代，出現問題迅速修改，一代一代迭代，在市場中不斷優化，但是硬體沒有辦法做快速迭代。 The software has a particularly good development method called rapid rotation, with problems rapidly changing, generation-to-generation excellence in the market, but there is no way that the hardware can do it fast. 現在有了更新的數字孿生，可以把整個生產甚至把整個研發完全數字化，在和真實環境完全一模一樣的虛擬環境里完成迭代，使過去不能迭代的硬體完成快速優化。 Now that there is an updated digital life, the whole product can be fully digitized, and the entire development can be accomplished in a virtual environment that is exactly the same as the real environment, making hardware that could not be repeated in the past fast-tracked. 不光硬體能夠優化，數字孿生還可以把整個工廠數字化，意味著工廠一天24小時的運轉和真實情況是完全吻合的，也就是說，整個生產系統可以實現快速迭代。 Not only can the hardware be superior, but the numbers can digitize the entire factory, meaning that the factory's 24-hour-a-day operation and the real situation are exactly the same, that is, the whole production system can be fast-paced. 以前建個廠的投資都是固定成本，一次性投資下去，中間若干年就不用再投入了，除非整個生產系統的技術需要更新，才會有一大筆資金投入。未來的工廠投資是持續性的，設計工廠的時候就要是考慮它的迭代。不斷迭代，使得工廠的生產能力能夠迅速提升。 Investment in a plant used to be a fixed cost, a one-time investment, and it would not be needed in the middle of the year unless the technology of the entire production system needs to be updated. Future investment in a plant is continuous, and the design plant will have to consider its replacement. 十、新能源的大機會 不光特斯拉業績很好，寧德時代（國內的動力電池製造商）的業績也很好。不光是特斯拉的電動車需要電池做支持，未來有大量的機器人也需要用固定電源來解決問題。 Not only Tesla’s performance was good, but Ninder’s performance was good. Not only Tesla’s electric cars needed battery support, but a large number of future robots needed fixed power to solve the problem. 我們正在進入一個電力無所不在的時代，未來的能源的增長方向就是新能源。而新能源的百分之八九十都是太陽能和風電，所以未來會大量建設太陽能電廠，電源或電力系統會大量鋪設，而且電力系統可以隨時隨地提供各種的固定的、移動的用電。 We are entering an ubiquitous age of power, where future energy growth will be in the direction of new energy sources. Eighty-nine percent of new energy sources are solar and wind power, so there will be large-scale solar power plants in the future, power sources or power systems will be heavily constructed, and power systems can provide every kind of fixed, mobile power at any given time. 我們可以設想一下，一輛非常智能化的自動駕駛汽車停到停車位上自動充電，就像現在的無線充電手機一樣。等到主人需要用車的時候，車已經充滿電，並自動駕駛到主人需要的地方。 Let's just think, a very intelligent auto-driving car stops at the parking lot, charging it automatically, just like the current wireless phone. By the time the owner needs the car, the car is already full of electricity and auto-driving where the owner needs it. 十一、全球供應鏈正在發生變化 隨著數字系統的全面普及，我們得到了一個東西叫做「上帝視角」，能夠從一個更廣闊的角度完整體驗整個行業的情況。所有數據都能收集起來，我們對產業的了解度就大大增強了，自然就可以做全面的優化。 With the full spread of the digital system, we've got something called the "God's Corner" that allows us to see the whole business from a broader perspective. All the data can be collected, and we have a much better understanding of the industry and, naturally, a full appreciation. 3D列印在前幾年很熱，但是這兩年慢慢冷下來了，之前熱的是塑料的3D列印，用在輔助設計，用在開模上。現在3D列印正在重新熱起來，這一波的熱潮的引領者做金屬的3D列印，用來直接製造零配件。 3D is hot in the previous years, but it's cooled down in the last two years, before it's hot in plastic 3D, used in assistive design, and used in modeling. Now, 3D is reheating, and this wave of heat leads to 3D in metal, which is used directly to make spare parts. 以前需要由供應商來批量的製作完成零配件，現在直接由3D列印製作出來。不光是成本降低，更重要的是可以按需提供零配件，不需要那麼龐大的庫存物流管理系統。 The spare parts, which used to be manufactured in bulk by suppliers, are now produced directly by 3D printing. Not only are they lower costs, but more importantly, spare parts can be provided on demand, without the need for a large storage logistics management system. 十二、生物醫藥的突破 如果說我們以前都是以實體產品為主的，以後就會有大量的生物製品，因為生物革命也在蓬勃發展中，生物和人工智慧技術的疊加也出現了大量的個性化治療，如基因治療、細胞治療、大量規劃治療，甚至生物在慢慢影響製造，合成生物學會在10年之後成為一個巨大的潮流。 If we used to focus on physical products, there would be a lot of bioproducers in the future, because the biorevolution is also booming, and there are a lot of individualized treatments, such as gene therapy, cell therapy, a lot of planned treatments, and even organisms slowly influencing production, and synthetic biology will become a huge tide after 10 years. 正是因為生產製造的支持，再加上數字技術的支持，今天我們才能得到想要的生活。 It's thanks to production support, coupled with digital support, that today we get the life we want. 十三、所有行業，都是服務業 13. All businesses are service businesses. 我們提到了硬體、提到了軟體、提到了服務，但是這些都是表面層次的東西，更深層次的東西是什麼呢？是更複雜的協作，也就是說做產品的人需要跟做服務的人聯手，做服務的人需要跟懂客戶的人聯手，甚至和客戶進行協作。 We mention hardware, software, services, but these are all surface-level things, and what's deeper? It's a more complicated arrangement, which means that the person who makes the product needs to work with the person who does the service, the person who does the service needs to work with the person who knows the client, and even with the person who does the work. 今天必須協作起來，才能提供一個更好的服務，表面上看是你生產產品，我提供服務，但實際上是割裂的，不能提供一個統一的服務，也就是不能達到最佳體驗。只有支持創新的文化才能夠完成這些事情，這就叫Pro innovation，新創新文化。 Today, it is necessary to work together to provide a better service, ostensibly a product of your own, and I provide a service, but in fact it is fragmented, and it does not provide a single service, that is, it does not have the best experience. Only by supporting a new culture can it be done, which is called Pro innovation, a new culture. 什麼是新創新文化?就是企業敢於創新，政府鼓勵創新，社會接納創新。 What's a new culture? 企業創新是有風險的，如何消化這個風險呢？企業以創新作為自己的本質發展的基石，不斷提供創新的動力。 There are risks to innovation, and how can it be absorbed? By making innovation the cornerstone of its own development, it provides a constant incentive for innovation. 政府也是一樣，政府需要保證社會的穩定發展，需要提供監管的能力，任何一個創新產品的上市都是要經過批准的。但是你會發現，一個老產品上市，因為規則已經形成了，批准的時候風險相對較低，而一個新產品上市面臨的是新問題，批准的時候就要承擔風險，所以很多時候政府就會更傾向於支持那些不那麼創新的東西。 The same holds true for the government, which needs to ensure the stability of society, the ability to provide oversight, and the approval of the listing of any new product. But you will find that an old product is on the market because the rules are in place and the risks are lower when it is approved, while a new product is on the market when it comes to new problems and when it comes to taking risks, so that in many cases the government tends to support something that is not so new. 但是未來是屬於創新的，科技是需要創新的，政府如何區別對待，對創新的東西提供更多的支持，這就是政府面臨的一個話題。比如在生物醫藥領域的新產品的上市規則，就經過很多專家研討，而不再是按老產品的規則來報批，這就是政府鼓勵創新的一個成功案例。 But the future is new, and technology needs to be creative, how governments treat each other differently, and how they support the creation of new things, which is one of the issues facing the government. For example, the listing of new products in the biomedical field has been the subject of a lot of expert research, and it is no longer the case of old-fashioned products, a success story that the government encourages to create new ones. 一個社會的發達水平不取決於創新引入的速度，而是取決於先進科技的使用深度。中國今天的成就不是因為我們發明了高鐵，而是中國把高鐵普及了，因為普及程度才能帶來科技對整個社會的價值提升。 A society’s level of achievement depends not on the pace of innovation, but on the depth of the use of advanced technology. China’s achievements today are not because we have invented high iron, but because it has spread it to China, which has brought about an increase in the value of technology to society as a whole. 未來能夠支持創新，尤其是支持複雜創新、協作生態的文化，才是一個區域、一個經濟體長期發展的關鍵。有了先進科技的推動，有了知識創新的文化，服務規模化就逐漸變成現實，又會產生面向用戶的新產業。 In the future, support for innovation, especially a complex, creative and collaborative culture, is the key to the long-term development of a region and an economy. With advanced technology and knowledge to create a new culture, services are becoming reality, and new user-oriented industries are emerging. 服務規模化使得一切行業都有一個再造的過程，每個企業都要重新思考，我是不是把以前提供的產品變成服務？ The modulation of services has made it possible for all businesses to have a process of re-engineering, and every enterprise has to rethink it. Do I turn what I've previously provided into a service? 現在有個很時髦的詞叫產品經理，說一個企業的好壞主要看企業里沒有優秀的產品經理。而未來就要叫服務經理了，只不過以前服務經理可能是干接待的活，未來的服務經理把以前產品經理的活接過來，所有的產品設計包含在裡面，還要把服務也融合到一起。 There's a very stylish word called a product manager, saying that the good or bad of an enterprise depends on the fact that there is no good product manager in the company. The future will be called a service manager, but the service manager could have been a reception worker, the future service manager would have taken over the work of the former product manager, and all the designs would have to be in it, and the services would have to be integrated. 所以，未來的服務是個大服務的概念，有科技，有服務，而且是要持續提供的服務。從產品化到服務化的一個重要的標尺就是，能不能形成長期服務客戶，以及和客戶互動的能力。以前賣產品是一次性賣出去對，但是以後賣產品是提供訂閱服務。 So, the future service is a large service concept, with technology, with services, and with services to continue. An important criterion for from product to service is whether it can create long-term service customers and the ability to interact with customers. /Strong used to sell products on a one-off basis, but later on it is a subscription service. 服務要規模化，而且要個性化，這就需要有硬體、有技術、有機器人。 Services need to be calibrated and individualized, which requires hard, skilled and robotics. 1.健康管理 1. Health management 服務化改造裡面還有一個特定的領域叫做健康管理，這是一個巨大的市場，因為人人都需要這樣的服務化改造，人人都需要更加個性化、智能化的健康跟蹤分析和建議。 There is also a specific domain in the service adaptation called health management, which is a huge market, because everyone needs this service transformation, and everyone needs more personalized, intelligent health tracking analysis and advice. 現代醫學非常發達，不管是從診斷檢測還是治療上都有手段使人長壽，但是這種手段沒有辦法傳遞到每個人，也就是說有些公司有技術，有些患者有需求，但是這兩者對接不起來。這個對接需要一個界面，這界面就叫健康管理。 Modern medicine is very popular, both from diagnostics and treatments, but it does not reach everyone, that is to say, some companies have skills and some patients have needs, but the two do not get together. This interface requires an interface, which is called health management. 未來會有一批健康管理公司，他們不是自己開發技術，而是把別人的技術提供給更多的需要這個技術的用戶。 There will be health management companies in the future that do not develop technology themselves, but rather provide technology to more users who need it. 健康管理是一個未來的巨大市場，因為它會替代掉健康保險產業。現在健康保險是被動的，不出事的時候我不知道，出了事了只能理賠。如果已經生病了，很多時候不是錢的問題，如果是健康管理，事先對一個人的情況了如指掌，能夠早期預防，防患於未然，當然是更好的情況了。 Health management is a great market for the future, because it will replace the health insurance industry. Health insurance is now moved, and I don't know when it's done. If it's already sick, it's not always about money. If it's about health management, it's better to know a person well in advance, to be prepared for it early, to be prepared for it before it happens. 但是，這是一個現在還沒有出現的產業，不過它正處於孕育之中。 But it's an industry that hasn't appeared yet, but it's in the process of conception. 2.環境智能 2. Environmental intelligence 除了健康以外，一個新的產業正在形成，它就是智能化的環境互動，即智能環境和顯示互動產業。 In addition to health, a new industry is emerging, which is intelligent environmental interactions, i.e. intelligent environments and displays of interactive industries. 我們現在正在進入一個元宇宙時代，它有一個特點就是圍繞物理世界把更多的數字信息給疊加起來，使得我們的信息積累、數據積累達到一個更高的層次。 We are now entering a meta-cosm age, one of the special features of which is to collide more digital information around the physical world, bringing our information to a higher level. 這些數據信息積累起來之後，如何能夠感知到呢？就要有一個展示方式。因為物理世界的牆面是沒有辦法提供數字展示的，所以未來越來越多的牆面會被屏幕所覆蓋。屏幕能把相關的數字展示出來，這種展示不限於屏幕，我們隨身帶的顯示設備可以。 How can this data be felt when it accumulates? There's a way to show it. Because the physical world's walls are not capable of providing digital displays, more and more of the future's walls will be covered by the screen. The screen will show the numbers, and the display will not be limited to the screen. 比如我和我太太一起逛商場，除了標牌和店名以外，我是看不到更多東西的，但是我想知道它裡面有什麼，又不想直接進去。如果戴上一個增強現實的眼鏡，可以看到店裡的打折信息，而更重要的它是和我相關的。這個時候我的在物理世界看到的和我太太看到的是一樣的，但是我的增強現實的眼鏡里看到的東西，和我太太看到肯定是不一樣，因為我們的興趣偏好會有差異。 For example, I went to the mall with my wife, and I couldn't see much more than signs and shop names, but I wanted to know what was in it, and I didn't want to go in there. If I put on a more realistic glasses, I could see the discount information in the shop, and more importantly, it was about me. I saw the same thing in the physical world that I saw in my wife, but what I saw in my more realistic glasses was definitely different from what my wife saw, because our interests might differ. 這是未來更加理想的狀態，以至於一定有一天我們會發現不習慣裸眼看到的物理世界。我們會習慣看必須有信息層覆蓋的物理世界。 This is the ideal state of the future, so one day we'll find the physical world that we're not used to seeing naked eyes. We'll get used to seeing the physical world that has to be covered with information layers. 在未來，任何一個物理層都會疊加一個信息層，這才是真正的智能化世界。 In the future, any layer of physics will add a layer of information, which is the real intelligent world. 我們之前介紹了12個場景，這些場景之所以能實現，是因為後面有10個科技產業生態的支持。這些生態使得場景能夠實現，也使我們的生活變得更加的美好。 We introduced 12 scenes, which were made possible by the support of 10 technology-based industries that made the scene possible and made our lives better. 這也是我們今天想跟大家傳遞的最主要的信息，科技使每個人的生活更加美好，我們需要主動擁抱科技，主動擁抱未來。 This is also the most important message we want to convey to you today, that technology makes life better for everyone, and that we need to embrace technology and embrace the future. 這就是我們向你傳遞的前哨大會的所有內容，我們明年再見。 That's all we've got for you at the outpost conference. I'll see you next year.
注册有任何问题请添加
微信：MVIP619
拉你进入群
打开微信扫一扫 添加客服 进入交流群
「我是最大的勞務外包公司。因為我們把機器人提供給各個酒店去做遞送。比如住客忘了帶毛巾，只要打一個電話，人工智慧系統就會接聽並分析語音語義。它理解了你需要一個毛巾，就會把命令發到自動貨櫃，自動貨櫃會對接到機器人將毛巾送到你的客房樓門口，整個過程是全自動的。整個系統提不是售賣的方式提供給酒店，而是租用的方式。所以，我相當於把機器人當員工租給了酒店。」
"I am the biggest outsourcing company. Because we supply robots to hotels for delivery. For example, the tenant forgot to bring a towel, so that an artificial intelligence system would listen to and analyse the syntax. It understood that you needed a towel, and it would send an order to an automatic container, which would automatically send a towel to the door of your guest building when the machine received it. The entire system would not offer it to a hotel, but rather to rent it. So I would rather rent it from a robot to a hotel as an employee."
1.本站遵循行业规范，任何转载的稿件都会明确标注作者和来源；2.本站的原创文章，请转载时务必注明文章作者和来源，不尊重原创的行为我们将追究责任；3.作者投稿可能会经我们编辑修改或补充。
