美联储突显鹰派 加密行情戛然而止？

Recently, the market generally expects the US to tighten monetary policy and turn to US monetary policy. Federal Reserve Chairman Powell's statement on US monetary policy last weekend once again makes this expectation full of variables. Powell said that the Fed may have more work to do in fighting high inflation, and the Federal Open Market Committee is committed to achieving a fully restrictive monetary policy stance in order to reduce the inflation rate over time. We are not confident that this has been achieved. These days, the market is also digesting hawks. From the perspective of monetary policy regulation, if the Fed continues to raise interest rates, it will directly affect the interest rate of the US dollar, making the assets of the US dollar more attractive. At the same time, the price of Bitcoin will drop after reaching a high point on January. As the world's major foreign exchange reserve currency and the dominant position of the United States in the global economy, many assets are denominated in US dollars, which gives the Fed influence in the global financial market, especially in overseas developed countries. The response to the Fed policy is highly similar to that of the US stock market. Inconsistency in internal strategies led to misjudgment in the market during the period from January to this year. Some market participants mistakenly thought that the Fed had reached the peak of the interest rate hike cycle, and as a result, the risk market rebounded greatly. With the admission of institutions and compliance, the encryption market including Bitcoin will not be ignored. How about the correlation between Bitcoin and the Fed? Does this niche market continue to have the unique risk aversion of niche markets? Chain-to-chain connectivity encryption markets are more sensitive to Bitcoin, etc. As a niche asset, encrypted assets have become more and more closely related to financial markets such as the stock markets of overseas developed countries. We can see that the previous correlation has become only lower than the correlation of financial factors. According to the calculation results of working papers, the impact of US monetary policy on encrypted currency cycle is almost the same as that on global stock cycle, which is similar to that of encrypted assets in hedging market. The potential of market risk is in sharp contrast. When the interest rate of the Federal Reserve's monetary policy rises by one percentage point, the cryptocurrency factor continues to decline in the following day, which means that the cryptocurrency market is more sensitive to the changes of the Federal Reserve's monetary policy. However, it should be noted that there are differences between the market and the Federal Reserve at present. It is generally believed that the United States is at the high point of the economic cycle or in the ordinary inflation stage. However, the Federal Reserve is this. Although the former insists that the United States is facing the high point of economic cycle or ordinary inflation, its actual actions and measures are more radical, so the market has some doubts about the Fed's inconsistent position, whether it is compliance blessing and accelerated acceptance of institutions, we can clearly see that the encryption market in the chain is no longer niche, and the encryption market has been integrated into the global financial cycle. Institutions enter the market and impact encryption investors with the opportunity. At the same time, professional investors usually pay more attention to the changes of macroeconomic factors and monetary policy, and the increase of institutional investors' participation strengthens the transmission effect of monetary policy on the cryptocurrency market, which will increase the impact of the Fed's monetary policy on the market. In his latest article, he also pointed out that the bull market in the cryptocurrency market may come with the increase of dollar liquidity, and dollar liquidity is directly related to dollar monetary policy. Predicting from the perspective of the real economy and the global financial cycle, especially predicting the Fed's actions in advance, that is, managing and managing the market's expectations, will become one of the most important criteria for future market investors. In addition to the internal position of the Fed, which makes the market doubt, we also need to pay attention to the external effectiveness of the Fed's monetary policy. Investors need to have a broader macro pattern, such as referring to the dynamics of the real economy cycle and the overall environment of global financial operation, taking into account the international status of the US dollar. For example, professors in academic circles are discussing about the disproportionate influence of American monetary policy on the world nominal economy, and put forward the difference between the nominal superpower and the actual superpower. Cryptographic assets such as Bitcoin are moving towards a brand-new stage. With the participation of important stakeholders, from institutional investors to regulatory agencies, the crypto market is accumulating regulations at an unprecedented speed. Mode and influence at the same time, its price trend seems to be increasingly difficult to be independent. In the medium term, even if the encryption market has the blessing of science and technology, the independent market has become a thing of the past. Compared with stock market investors, encryption investors need to pay attention to the trend of formulating monetary policy under the multiple difficulties of inflation, financial stability and economic recovery from a more macro perspective. 比特币今日价格行情网_okx交易所app_永续合约_比特币怎么买卖交易_虚拟币交易所平台

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