ETH到BTC的预测：合并后的以太坊会挑战比特币的统治地位吗？
比特币（BTC）是加密市场的先驱，按市值计算，是第二大代币以太坊（ETH ）的两倍。在成功完成 The Merge并切换到股权证明 ( PoS ) 共识机制后， ETH 是否会超越 BTH ？
bitcoin (BTC) is a pioneer in the encryption market, twice as many in market value terms as the second-largest coin (ETH). After successfully completing the Merge and switching to the PoS Consensus mechanism, will the ETH go beyond the BTH?
在这里，我们来看看ETH 对 BTC的汇率，以及2022 年及以后影响ETH/BTC的因素。
Here, let's look at the exchange rate of ETH to BTC and the factors that affected
什么是 ETH/BTC？
What's ETH/BTC?
ETH/BTC 代表以太坊区块链的原生代币以太币与比特币网络上的原生代币比特币之间的汇率。
ETH/BTC represents the exchange rate between the original currency of the Taiwan block chain and the original currency of the Bitcoin network.
ETH/BTC 代表可以用一个以太币购买多少比特币，ETH/BTC 的上涨表示 ETH 的上涨或 BTC 的下跌，反之亦然。
The ETH/BTC representative may use an increase in the amount of bitcoins, ETH/BTC as an indication of the increase in the ETH or the drop in the BTC, and vice versa.
BTC 的本意是“纯粹的点对点版本的电子现金”。然而，多年来，加密货币也已成为一种价值储存手段，并与黄金相提并论，以对冲通胀上升。
BTC is meant to be “pure point-to-point versions of electronic cash”. However, encrypted currency has also become a value-storage tool for years and is compared to gold in order to hedge inflation.
比特币挖矿依赖于连接所有公共交易的区块链。使用工作量证明 ( PoW ) 共识，BTC 矿工相互竞争以解决数学方程并确认交易的合法性。他们以 BTC 代币获得奖励。
Bitcoin digs depend on a chain of blocks that connects all public transactions. Using the workload proof (poW) consensus, BTC miners compete with each other to resolve the mathematical equation and confirm the legitimacy of the transaction.
为了降低新 BTC 的奖励率，加密货币被设计为大约每四年经历一次减半事件。减半会将释放到流通中的比特币数量减少一半，从而限制供应。
In order to reduce the incentives for the new BTC, encrypted money is designed to be halved approximately every four years. Halves the amount of bitcoins released into circulation, thus limiting supply.
以太坊是一个用于构建去中心化应用程序 ( dApps )的可编程网络，于 2015 年推出，其灵感来自比特币的局限性。
Ether is a programming network used to build decentralised applications (dApps), launched in 2015, inspired by Bitcoin limitations.
“虽然比特币只是一个支付网络，但以太坊更像是一个金融服务、游戏、社交网络和其他应用程序的市场，尊重你的隐私，不能审查你，”以太坊的网站说。
“Although Bitcoin is just a payment network, it's more like a market for financial services, games, social networks and other applications, respecting your privacy and not censoring you,” the site says.
以太坊的另一个关键要素是区块链运行智能合约的能力——区块链上的计算机程序允许创建和平稳运行 dApp。
Another key element of the Etherm is the ability of block chains to run smart contracts — computer programs on block chains allow for the creation of smooth and peaceful running dApps.
与 BTC 一样，ETH 最初使用 PoW 机制，但自 2022 年 9 月 15 日起依赖 PoS。这一变化被称为“合并”，旨在将以太坊的能源消耗降低约 99.95%。
Like BTC, ETH initially used the Pow mechanism, but has relied on PS since September 15, 2022. This change is referred to as “consolidation” and is intended to reduce the energy consumption of Taiwan by about 99.95 per cent.
合并是一系列升级之一。在7 月的一次演讲中，该平台的联合创始人 Vitalik Bouterin 指出了以下发展阶段，但没有具体说明它们何时会发生：
The merger was one of a series of upgrades. In a speech in July, Vitalik Bouterin, the co-founder of the platform, noted the following stages of development but did not specify when they would occur:
- The Surge – 添加以太坊分片，这将降低捆绑交易的成本并使操作更容易。
- The Verge——用户无需存储大量数据即可成为验证者。
- 清除——将简化以太坊协议并减少区块链使用的空间量。
- 挥霍——这个升级包括“所有其他有趣的东西”。
这些更新也有可能影响 ETH 价格，从而形成 ETH 对 BTC 的汇率。
These updates may also have an impact on ETH prices, resulting in an exchange rate of ETH to BTC.
ETH 到 BTC 的历史汇率图表
在开始交易后的前两年，ETH 对 BTC 的汇率飙升了 2,518%，从 2015 年 8 月的 0.005767BTC 到 2017 年 6 月的历史高点 0.151BTC，表明以太币价格上涨更快。
In the first two years after the start of the transaction, the exchange rate of ETH to BTC rose sharply by 2,518 per cent, from 0.0005767 BTC in August 2015 to the historic high point of 0.151 BTC in June 2017, indicating faster price increases in the Ether currency.
然而，ETH 到 BTC 价格图表中的这个峰值并没有持续多久。2017 年 12 月，该汇率跌至 0.02427BTC，自 6 月的峰值以来下跌了 83.9%。
However, this peak in the ETH to BTC price chart did not last much longer. In December 2017, the exchange rate fell to 0.02427BTC, which has fallen by 83.9 per cent since its peak in June.
ETH 价值在 2018 年 1 月达到 1,396.42 美元，ETH 对 BTC 的汇率跃升至 0.09724 BTC。
The value of ETH reached $1,396.42 in January 2018, and the exchange rate of ETH against BTC jumped to 0.09724 BTC.
ETH 在接下来的三周内设法维持了对 BTC 的积极趋势，价格图表上涨了 16%，在 2018 年 2 月 1 日达到 0.1131BTC 的峰值。
ETH managed to maintain a positive trend towards BTC over the next three weeks, with price charts rising by 16 per cent, reaching a peak of 0.1131 BTC on 1 February 2018.
ETH 到 BTC 在 2021 年期间表现相当不错，在 5 月中旬达到峰值 0.08178BTC，当时 ETH 价格达到 4,168.7 美元，BTC 交易价格为 50,000 美元。
ETH to BTC performed fairly well during 2021, peaking at 0.08178 BTC in mid-May, when the prices of ETH reached US$ 4,168.7 and the BTC transaction price was US$ 50,000.
当 BTC 价值在 2021 年 11 月达到 66,971.83 美元的历史新高时，ETH/BTC 配对并未受到太大影响，在 2021 年 10 月 19 日短暂跌至 0.06034BTC 后，它确实在 2021 年 12 月达到峰值 0.0879BTC。
When the value of BTC reached its historic height of $66,971.83 in November 2021, the ETH/BTC match was not significantly affected and it did peak at 0.0879 BTC in December 2021 after a brief drop to 0.06034 BTC on 19 October 2021.
随着 TerraUSD (UST) 稳定币及其姊妹代币 LUNA的崩盘以及随之而来的更广泛的加密货币崩盘， ETH 对 BTC 的汇率从 2022 年 5 月的 0.07554BTC 跌至 7 月的 0.05373BTC，下跌了近 30%，表明跌幅更快ETH 价格。
With TerraUSD (UST) stabilizing the collapse of the currency and its sister-in-law LUNA and the ensuing wider crypto-currency collapse, the exchange rate of ETH against BTC fell from 0.07554 BTC in May 2022 to 0.05373 BTC in July, down by nearly 30%, indicating a faster drop in ETH prices.
由于 LUNA 崩盘和收紧货币政策引发的加密货币世界的看跌情绪，ETH 的价格在 6 月跌至 993 美元，BTC 跌至 19,017 美元。
The price of ETH fell to $993 in June and BTC to $19,017 as a result of the decline in the world of encrypted currencies caused by LUNA crashes and tightening monetary policy.
2022 年 9 月，由于对合并的预期，以太币上涨至 0.0846BTC。截至 9 月 20 日，当前汇率为 0.07088 BTC。
In September 2022, due to the anticipated merger, the Tai currency rose to 0.0846 BTC. As at 20 September, the current exchange rate was 0.07088 BTC.
合并会推动 ETH/BTC 吗？
merger will drive ETH/BTC?
经过六年的积累，9 月 15 日，以太坊成功地将其系统从 PoW 升级到 PoS。然而，ETH 价格并没有像投资者预期的那样反弹。
After six years of accumulation, on September 15, Etheria successfully upgraded its system from PoW to Pos. However, ETH prices did not rebound as investors expected.
Anndy Lian，蒙古生产力组织首席数字顾问，《NFT：从零到英雄》的作者。注意到在合并之后，价格在 1,640 美元上方波动并在之后不久下跌：
Andy Lian, Chief Digital Advisor, Mongolian Productivity Organization, author of NFT: From Zero to Heroes. It was noted that after the merger, prices fluctuated above US$ 1,640 and fell shortly thereafter:
“这是非常值得期待的。自 12 日以来，大量 ETH 涌入各个交易所，然后在完成前累积到 180 万 ETH 左右。在这种情况下，我看到投资者可能计划在价格下跌之前抛售。”
"This is very much to be expected. Since 12 years, there has been a massive influx of ETHs into various exchanges, which have accumulated around 1.8 million ETHs before completion. In this case, I see that investors may plan to sell them before prices fall."
Concordium 基金会主席兼盛宝银行创始人 Lars Seier Christensen 表示，以太坊社区预计“对成功合并的反应会更加积极”。他补充说，最近的反弹是我们在 TradFi 中所说的“买入谣言，卖出事实”，并且任何将 The Merge 视为乐观消息的人都已经购买了 ETH。
Lars Seeer Christensen, President of the Concordium Foundation and founder of the Treasure Bank, said that the community expected “a more positive response to successful mergers.” He added that the recent rebound was what we called in TradFi, “buying rumours and selling facts”, and that anyone who saw The Merge as an optimist had already bought ETH.
“合并真的是一件小事。它在可扩展性或费用方面没有任何改变，实际上对抗了许多长期的以太坊支持者——矿工，”他补充道。
“Consolidation is really a small thing. It doesn't change in terms of scalability or cost, and it actually confronts many long-standing Ether supporters — miners,” he added.
CoinLoan 的产品负责人 Eugene Zomchak 告诉 Capital.com，ETH 对 BTC 的价值可能受到其他微观经济因素的影响，例如加密冬天和美联储收紧政策而不是 The Merge，并指出：
Eugene Zomchak, the product manager of Coin Loan, told Capital.com that the value of ETH to BTC could be influenced by other microeconomic factors, such as encryption winter and the tightening of the Fed policy rather than The Merge:
“有一些来自爱好者的积极预测，他们注意到合并是一个里程碑式的事件，以太币的价格可能会飙升两倍、三倍甚至五倍。”
“There are positive predictions from lovers who note that mergers are a landmark event and that the price of too much may soar twice, triple or even five times.”
自合并以来，BTC 价格一直在 19,000 美元至 20,000 美元之间波动。ETH 在 9 月 17 日达到 1,469.74 美元，然后在 9 月 20 日跌至 1,300 美元左右。
Since the merger, BTC prices have fluctuated between $19,000 and $20,000. ETH reached $1,469.74 on September 17, then fell to around $1,300 on September 20.
Lian 强调，重要的是投资者要提醒自己，合并的影响，可能包括 ETH 到 BTC 的价格，只会在长期内感受到：
Lian stressed that it was important for investors to remind themselves that the effects of the merger, which might include prices from ETH to BTC, would only be felt in the long term:
“汽油费将保持不变，其他可扩展性问题仍未解决。整个社区必须等待 Surge、Verge、Purge 和 Splurge 的改进，才能看到交易成本降低并显着提高可扩展性。”
“The price of gasoline will remain unchanged, and other scalability issues will remain unresolved. The whole community will have to wait for improvements in Surge, Verge, Purge and Spurge to see lower transaction costs and significantly greater scalability.”
Concordium Foundation 的 Christensen 还指出，当前的市场环境充满挑战：
Christensen of Concordium Foundation also noted that the current market environment is challenging:
“与更广泛的资产市场的相关性非常明显，如果股市没有复苏，这将加剧负面情绪。如果以太坊果断跌破 1,400，我认为我们可能会看到大幅抛售。”
“The relevance to the wider asset market is clear, and if the stock market does not recover, it exacerbates the negative sentiment. If the Etherno collapses decisively by 1,400, I think we might see a large sale.”
Christensen 补充说，下一次以太坊升级将成为焦点：
Christensen added that the next Ethio upgrade would be the focus:
“最重要的是提高可扩展性，这将降低费用。在此之前，以太坊实际上并没有太多用处，并且完全依赖于提供比以太坊本身低得多的安全性的第 2 层解决方案。
“The most important thing is to increase scalability, which will reduce costs. Until then, the Etherms did not actually have much use and relied entirely on providing a second-tier solution that is much less secure than the Etherms themselves.
“考虑到合并的执行有多么困难，并且延迟了多年，我个人认为以太坊可以快速交付下一阶段的信念是有限的。以太坊有一个优势，也只有一个优势：一个非常忠诚的生态系统，它将通过最不寻常和非理性的障碍，只是为了保持忠诚。我想知道这会持续多久。”
“Considering how difficult the implementation of the merger has been and has been delayed for many years, I personally believe that the belief that Ether was able to deliver the next stage quickly is limited. The Etherm has one advantage, and only one advantage: a very loyal ecosystem, which will pass through the most unusual and irrational barriers, just to remain faithful. I wonder how long this will last.”
ETH/BTC 汇率预测
基于对截至 9 月 20 日过去价格表现的分析，基于算法的预测服务Wallet Investor预测，ETH/USD 的交易价格在 2023 年可能为 2,391.383 美元，到 2027 年将达到 7,135.056 美元。
Based on an analysis of past price performance as at 20 September, an algorithm-based forecast service, Wallet Investor, forecasted that the transaction price of ETH/USD could be $2,391.83 in 2023 and $7,135.056 in 2027.
在比特币预测方面，该网站预计 2023 年 BTC/USD 的交易价格为 33,668.92 美元，到 2027 年达到 79,969.28 美元。
In terms of Bitcoin projections, the BTC/USD trading price is projected to be $33,668.92 in 2023 and $79,969.28 in 2027.
虽然Wallet Investor没有提供直接的 ETH/BTC 汇率预测，但数据表明他们预计 2023 年的汇率为 0.335BTC，2027 年为 0.421BTC。
Although Walter Investor did not provide a direct ETH/BTC exchange rate forecast, the data show that they projected an exchange rate of 0.335 BTC in 2023 and 0.421 BTC in 2027.
截至 9 月 20 日， DigitalCoinPrice支持积极的 ETH/USD 预测，并预计该代币到 2022 年底将增长到 1,832.85 美元，到 2023 年增长到 3,032.72 美元，到 2025 年增长到 5,417.40 美元。其长期预测表明，该代币将在 2030 年飙升至 18,000 美元以上。
As of September 20, DigitalCoinPrice supported the positive ETH/USD projection, which is expected to grow to $1,832.85 by the end of 2022, to $3,032.72 by 2023, and to $5,417.40 by 2025. Its long-term projections indicate that it will surge to more than $18,000 by 2030.
该网站还给出了乐观的BTC/USD 预测，预计到 2022 年底该代币将增长到 27,580.79 美元，到 2023 年将增长到 41,874.03 美元，到 2025 年将增长到 76,453.11 美元，到 2030 年将超过 264,000 美元。
The website also gives optimistic BTC/USD projections that by the end of 2022 it is expected to grow to $27,580.79 and by 2023 to $41,874.03 and by 2025 to $76,453.11 and by 2030 to over $264,000.
DigitalCoinPrice 预计到 2022 年底该汇率为 0.0665BTC，2023 年为 0.0724BTC，到 2025 年为 0.708BTC，到 2030 年为 0.068BTC。
DigitalCoinPrice expects the exchange rate to be 0.0665 BTC by the end of 2022, 0.0724 BTC in 2023, 0.708 BTC in 2025 and 0.068 BTC in 2030.
请注意，不应将预测和分析师的预期用作您自己的研究的替代品。始终进行自己的尽职调查并依靠自己的预测。永远不要交易你不能承受损失的钱。
Please note that forecasts and analysts’ expectations should not be used as a substitute for your own research.
在加密行业你想抓住下一波牛市机会你得有一个优质圈子，大家就能抱团取暖，保持洞察力。如果只是你一个人，四顾茫然，发现一个人都没有，想在这个行业里面坚持下来其实是很难的。
In the encryption industry, if you want to seize the next bovine opportunity, you have to have a good circle, so that you can warm up and keep your eyes open. If you're alone, you're out of your mind, you're out of your mind, and you don't have one, it's hard to stay in this business.
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