盘整接近三个月的比特币行情接近尾声
今年随着美国意外通过比特币和以太坊的 ETF，加密货币市场也迎来了新一轮的行情。不过在减半等利好因素的推动下，BTC 本身在过去一个季度的表现并不出彩。在刷新历史新高之后，价格就基本一直维持在 6-7 万美元的范围内宽幅震荡。好消息是，行情不可能永远维持横盘，而且这种突破预计很快就能见到。
This year, with the United States unexpectedly passing through Bitcoin and Ether's ETF, a new round of encrypt money markets has emerged. But the BTC itself, driven by incentives such as halving, has not performed well in the past quarter. After refreshing its history, prices have remained largely wide-banded in the range of $6-7 million.
模式一：蓄势待发，快速突破
Mode I: Stand by, quick break
对于比特币，比较大的共识依然是牛市并未结束，那么区别可能就在于以何种形式来结束修正。从乐观的角度来看，BTC 价格此前小破 6 万大关之后，已经完成了一个完成的锯齿形的 ABC 修正。同时，从 5 月份以来的上涨行情已经启动了新涨势的第一波。如果这种假设成立，再加上趋势线压制的参考，目前币价稍作回落之后，就应该很快取得突破，并再次刷新高点。
In the case of Bitcoin, the larger consensus remains that the bull market is not over, so the difference may be in the form in which the correction will end. From an optimistic point of view, the BTC price has completed a completed serrated ABC correction after a small break of 60,000.
即便回落的方式和空间略有差异，但是从时间角度来说，6 月末之前必然需要取得进展。因此，我们只要观察未来 3 周所有的时间是否可以见到新高，就能判断模式一的格局能否实现。此外，参考今年一季度黄金的走势，我们倾向于，当币价突破之后，会出现一波加速上涨的行情。这种逻辑下，买入看涨期权可能是不错的选择。
Even if the pattern of decline and space are slightly different, progress is bound to be made by the end of June in terms of time. So we can judge whether the pattern of mode I can be achieved by observing whether we can see new heights all the time in the next three weeks. And, with reference to the movement of gold in the first quarter of this year, we tend to see a wave of acceleration when currency prices break.
选择二：再来一次考验，大的平台型修正
Option two: one more test, big platform correction
第二种模式则会是复刻版的 3-6 月行情：冲击七万无法站稳，从而展开又一轮的 C 浪下行，并完成一个接近于前期低点的平台整固。这样子的模式会和黄金在今年一季度的回落比较类似，但是从时间跨度来说，当时黄金也只有了一个季度左右结束调整，但比特币如果再来一个回合，则很有可能会将夏季行情都消耗殆尽。
The second model would be a repeat version of 3-6 months: the impact of 70,000 would be unstabilized, leading to another round of C waves, and to the completion of a platform that was close to the lower end of the previous period. The pattern would be similar to the fall of gold in the first quarter of this year, but over time, gold would have been adjusted for only one quarter or so, but Bitcoin would probably run out of summer.
从价格来说，65500 这一位置跌破的话，将暗示上述可能性明显加大的信号。7.2W 附近形成的双头模式颈线水平目前则接近 6.6W，同样下破会导致市场情绪和技术形态的双看跌。
As far as prices are concerned, a drop in this position of 65500 would suggest a signal of a clear increase in the above-mentioned possibilities. The level of the neckline of the two-headed pattern around 7.2W is now close to 6.6W, which would also lead to a double drop in market moods and technological patterns.
充满希望，但做好最差的准备
Full of hope, but least prepared
从交易者角度来看，第一种快速突破当然是最好的选项，因为毕竟已经沉淀了比较长的时间。同时，我个人也更倾向于 6:4 开的局面，多头上破压制更看好一些。但就如之前所言，速度 / 效率是关键，本月剩下的时间不能再拖拉了。
From the perspective of traders, the first quick breakthrough is certainly the best option, because after all, it has been settling for a longer time. At the same time, I am personally more inclined to open a situation of 6:4 with more pressure on my head. But, as previously said, speed/efficiency is the key, and the rest of the month can no longer be delayed.
而如果最终市场选择再洗一次的话，也不用过于灰心。毕竟大方向是确定的，只不过多浪费了一点时间罢了。二次探底无论是加仓，还是之前踏空的投资者，都可以更加的确信参与进去。黄金 & 英伟达的 " 前车之鉴 " 一定会是比特币行情的领先指标。
And if the final market chooses to wash it again, there is no need to be too discouraged. After all, the big directions are certain, but only a little more time is wasted.
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