到底是什么决定了比特币的价格？

区块链资讯，一手掌握

Block chain information, one hand.

作者：Frances Coppola

This post is part of our special coverage Egypt Elections 2011.

原文来源：

Original source:

https://www.forbes.com/sites/francescoppola/2018/05/17/what-determines-the-price-of-bitcoin/#220aff3a5392

编译：Abo

This post is part of our special coverage Afghanistan Protests 2011.

在不到6个月的时间里，比特币贬值一半以上。 圣诞节前不久，它的交易价格超过19,000美元; 今天，它仅为8,299美元。

In less than six months, Bitcoin devalued by more than half; shortly before Christmas, it had a transaction price of more than $19,000; today, it's only $8,299.

不出所料，比特币投资者一直预测急速上涨将在任何一天重新开始。 但比特币至今不配合，在过去的两个月里坚守在10,000美元以下。 我们如何知道，什么时候它的价格会再次上升？

As expected, Bitcoin investors have been predicting that the surge will start again at any given day. But Bitcoin is still uncooperative, standing below $10,000 for the last two months.

Cryptocurrency分析师Fundstrat认为他们已经找到了预测比特币未来价格的方法。 他们使用比特币开矿成本预期的路径，预测比特币到2019年底将达到36,000美元：

Cryptocurrency analyst Fundstrat thinks they have found a way to predict the future price of Bitcoin. Using the expected path of Bitcoin’s mining costs, they predict that Bitcoin will reach $36,000 by the end of 2019:

执行概要：

Summary of implementation:

比特币矿商验证和处理交易，支持网络交易。用于采矿奖励和交易费用。在本文中，我们认为，价格/矿商的盈亏平衡成本已被证明是一个可靠的长期的支撑水平，而且未来矿业基础设施增长的轨迹应该巩固比特币的价格上涨，直到2019年。

Bitcoin miners verify and process transactions, support network transactions. For mining incentives and transaction costs. In this paper, we believe that the cost of profit/loss balance of the price/miner has proved to be a reliable long-term support level, and that the future trajectory of mining infrastructure growth should consolidate the price increase in Bitcoin until 2019.

我们认为，比特币对挖矿保本的花费提供了一个重要的支撑。我们预计挖矿经济会在未来几年增长，比特币将会定在36000的美元直到2019年，建立在历史平均1.8倍的基础上。

We believe that Bitcoin provides an important support for the cost of mining deposits. We expect that the mining economy will grow in the coming years, and that bitcoin will be set at $36,000 until 2019, based on a historical average of 1.8 times.

随着新型的矿机进入市场，电力成本的花费将会随着网络逐渐变得更具影响力（因为每瓦的散列功率更高）。

As new mine machines enter the market, the cost of electricity will become more influential as the network grows (as hash power is higher per watt).

在一个巨大的规模化运作中，挖矿会更集中化；小成本的矿工需要加入新的“矿业池”来保持竞争力。

In a large scale operation, mining would be more centralized; small-cost miners would need to join new “mining ponds” to remain competitive.

风险：哈希上的物质转移会改变支撑比特币的P/BE

Risk: The material transfer on Hash changes the P/BE that supports Bitcoin

底线：我们相信，目前哈西电力的增长轨迹会支撑比特币的价格保持在36000，直到2019年底。

Bottom line: We believe that the current growth trajectory of Hasi power will sustain the price of Bitcoin at 36,000 until the end of 2019.

但是这种方法受到比特币社区的很大批评。 在Twitter上，Blockstream首席战略官Samson Mow声称Fundstrat的预测依赖于一个有争议的经济理论：

But this approach has been heavily criticized by the Bitcoin community. On Twitter, Blockstream’s Chief Strategic Officer, Samson Mow, claims that Fundstrat’s prediction relies on a controversial economic theory:

“劳动价值论”基本上说，商品或服务的价格是由生产它所需的工作决定的。它受到马克思主义经济学家们的推崇，但大多数其他经济学派已经放弃了它，主张“主观评估”。

“Labour Values” basically says that the price of goods or services is determined by the work needed to produce them. It is espoused by Marxist economists, but most other economicists have abandoned it in favour of “subjective assessment”.

“主观评估”指出，商品或服务的价格是基于多少人为此买单，而不是无论人们会为此付出多少努力 。 Mow的观点是，主观评估是了解比特币价格动态的正确方法，而不是劳动价值理论。

The “subjective assessment” points out that the price of goods or services is based on how many people pay for them, not on how much effort people do. The Mow’s view is that the subjective assessment is the right way to understand the price dynamics of Bitcoin, not the labour value theory.

当然，如果生产商品或服务的成本比市场支付更高，他们将停止生产。因此，当价格下跌时，边缘生产者倾向于退出，减少供应，从而抬高价格。

Of course, if the cost of producing goods or services is higher than market payments, they will stop production. Thus, when prices fall, marginal producers tend to exit, reduce supply, and thus raise prices.

存货减少和/或储备充足以使他们亏损的生产商可能会在一段时间内继续生产。但随着时间的推移，越来越多的生产商退出，直到价格上涨足以让市场清理。

Producers with reduced inventories and/or sufficient reserves to make their losses likely to continue production for some time. But over time, more and more producers exit until price increases are sufficient to clean up the market.

同样，当比特币价格下跌时，边缘矿工退出，因为采矿比特币的成本开始超过奖励。 但是，这会产生安全风险。 随着采矿量的减少，掠夺性企图夺取水池控制权（51％的攻击）变得更具吸引力。

By the same token, when bitcoin prices fall, marginal miners withdraw, as the cost of mining bitcoin begins to exceed the incentive. But, creates security risks .

因此，比特币有一个自动调整机制，以防止矿工在价格下跌时退出矿池。 当比特币价格上涨时，矿工必须解决的算法难题变得更加困难，而价格下跌时难度更小。 这使得比特币生产率保持稳定，大约每10分钟1个块，同时允许hashrate（解决难题所需的计算能力）随比特币价格波动。

As a result, bitcoin has an automatic adjustment mechanism to prevent miners from withdrawing from the pits when prices fall. When prices rise in bitcoin, the algorithmic difficulties that miners have to solve become more difficult and less difficult when prices fall.

由于哈希率实际上是衡量电力使用情况的一个指标，这是采矿成本的主要组成部分，矿工的盈亏平衡成本倾向于跟踪比特币价格。 Fundstrat的图表（也来自Twitter）清楚地表明了这一点：

Since the Hashi rate is actually an indicator of electricity use, which is a major component of mining costs, miners’ profit/loss balance costs tend to track bitcoin prices. The chart of Fundstrat (also from Twitter) makes this clear:

由于难度调整所设置的价格底线与盈亏平衡成本和价格联系在一起，盈亏平衡成本趋势是比特币未来价格的合理预测指标。Samson Mow的批评有点不公平。 Fundstrat并没有依赖劳动价值论，尽管它的总结有点误导性，意味着采矿成本不是依靠调整难度来支持价格的。

Samson Mow’s criticism is somewhat unfair. Fundstrat does not rely on labour value theory, although its conclusion is somewhat misleading, meaning that mining costs are not supported by adjustment difficulties.

当然，这种支持是不对称的：比特币的价格在下行方面得到支持，但并未限制上涨。这是因为当采矿池扩张时，没有必要防御51％的攻击。 然而，似乎没有人想到，大幅增长的盈亏平衡成本创造了巨大的进入门槛，导致矿业集中。 可能不会有51％的攻击，但如果矿业市场成为少数大型企业的主宰，则效果大致相同。 特别是如果这些矿工相互合作的话。

Of course, this support is asymmetric: Bitcoin’s prices are supported on the downside, does not limit the rise. is because when mining pools expand, there is no need to defend against 51% of attacks.

还有第二个问题。 比特币交易很像商品。 从长远来看，商品的市场价格趋向于其边际生产成本。 换句话说，矿业利润最终会降至零。 正如我前面提到的，当利润降到零时，生产者最终会停止生产。

In other words, mining profits will eventually drop to zero. As I mentioned earlier, when profits fall to zero, producers will eventually stop producing.

但是，如果采矿停止，商品仍然会被交易，但比特币会立即亡。 这是因为矿工的真正工作不是比特币生产，而是交易验证。 如果没有交易验证，比特币不能买，不能卖，不能用，不能赚。

But if mining stops, the goods will still be traded, but Bitcoin will die immediately. This is because the real job of miners is not to produce bitcoin, but to verify the transaction.

如果采矿停止，现有的比特币将变成不动产 - 而不动产则毫无价值。 因此，与商品不同的是，如果矿业利润降至零，所有现有比特币的价值也将降至零。

If mining stops, the existing bitcoins will become real estate - and the real estate will be worthless. So, unlike commodities, if mining profits fall to zero, the value of all the existing bitcoins will also fall to zero.

难度调整人为地保留了矿工的利润率，以确保他们有足够的矿产继续开采。 这可以保护比特币免受攻击，但它对比特币作为交易系统的财务可持续性产生严重影响。

The difficulty of adjusting artificially retained margins for miners to ensure that they had enough minerals to continue mining. This would protect Bitcoin from attack, but its financial sustainability as a trading system has serious implications.

目前，新的比特币是矿业奖励的一部分。但矿业奖励的新比特币组成部分每隔几年就会减半。 最终它将达到零。 由于难度调整迫使矿业利润保持积极，因此利润率下降 - 无论是由于价格下跌还是减半 - 都会被交易费用上涨所抵消。 该系统的用户将不得不向矿工支付越来越多的比特币，以保证他们忠诚地进行挖矿。

At present, the new bitcoin is part of the mining incentive. But the new bitcoin component of the mining incentive will be halved every few years.

在我看来，这意味着将比特币视为商品是错误的。矿工提供服务 - 交易验证 - 比特币用户严格依赖这些服务。没有这种服务，比特币就会死亡。但是矿工们也依赖用户的交易意愿。如果费用涨得太高，用户会停止使用比特币进行交易，比特币将会亡。均衡交易费用将有足够的用户提供合理数量的交易进行验证，并有足够的矿工诚实地进行验证。

, in my view, means that it is wrong to treat Bitcoin as a commodity . Miners provide services - certification of transactions - Bitcoin users rely heavily on these services. Without such services, Bitcoin dies. But miners also rely on the willingness of users to trade. If the cost rises too high, users will stop using bitcoin, and bitcoins will die.

最终，决定比特币价值的是人们是否愿意交易使用它。这当然包括买卖比特币，因为交易正在进行。但是，比特币价格是否会继续急剧上涨，使用户仍然愿意支付更高的交易费用？或者最终会出现由于用户大批离开系统而引发价格下跌引发的“死亡螺旋”，随着矿工放弃，因为交易量减少迫使费用降至零？

ultimately, what determines the value of Bitcoin is whether people are willing to trade for it. of course includes buying and selling bitcoin because the deal is going on. But will Bitcoin prices continue to rise sharply, leaving users willing to pay higher transaction costs? Or will there be a “death spiral” of falling prices caused by the massive departure of users from the system, as miners give up, because a reduction in the volume of the transaction forces costs to zero?

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Copyright statement: Author reserves rights. Articles are independent opinions of authors and do not represent financial positions.

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