ETH：一文读懂如何给以太坊等公链代币进行估值？

市盈率、市销率等估值指标不适用于底层公链代币，公司价值是未来现金流的折现，而区块链价值来自于代币持有者支持多少经济活动，而不是交易活动的Gas费有多少比例被平台抽成为「利润」。

Valuation indicators such as market surpluses, market sales rates, etc., do not apply to bottom public chain tokens, where corporate values are discounted from future cash flows, while block chain values are derived from the number of economic activities supported by currency holders, rather than from the proportion of Gas fees from trading activities that the platform draws as “profits”.

应将底层代币作为「加密货币国家」的货币进行估值。区块链平台越大，就越像一个主权经济体，它的原生代币就是一种真正的货币，对L1代币估值时货币汇率模型比股票模型更有用。作者借鉴货币数量模型对代币汇率估值框架，公式是：

The bigger the block-chain platform, the bigger it is, the more a sovereign economy, its original currency is a true currency that is more useful than a stock model for the currency exchange rate when the L1 currency is valued. The author uses the currency volume model for the currency exchange rate valuation framework, the formula being:

货币供应量?(M)?·?货币流通速度?(V)?=?价格?(P)?·?实际?GDP?(Y)

Money supply?.???????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????

?代币价格可以表示为：

? The currency price can be expressed as:

Ancilia：曾批准任何代币在0x6d89开头地址上交易的用户请立即撤销:金色财经报道，Web3网络安全公司Ancilia提醒称，如果用户曾批准任何代币在0x6d8981847eb3cc2234179d0f0e72f6b6b2421a01上交易，请及时撤销，已检测到多个黑客利用了用户之前对0x6d89的批准。目前共22060个地址曾授权该地址，黑客已利用该漏洞获利超过460枚BNB（约合13.9万美元），已发送至Tornado Cash。[2023/2/28 12:33:25]

Ancilia: Users who have approved any transactions in tokens on the opening address of 0x6d89 request immediate revocation: Gold Finance Report, Web3 Network Security, Inc., Ancilia reminds that if the user has approved any transactions in tokens on 0x6d 8981847eb3cc 2234179d 0ff072f6b6b242101, please cancel in a timely manner and have detected multiple hackers who approved 0x6d89 prior to using the user. At present, 22060 addresses have authorized the address, and hackers have used the leak to profit more than 460 BNBs (approximately $139,000) and sent it to Tornado Cash. [2023/2/28:33:25]

MakerDAO设立Defense Fund提案获投票通过:2月1日消息，MakerDAO 社区投票通过了设立特殊基金 Defense Fund 以用于支付法律辩护费用的提案，该基金提供 500 万枚 DAI 的紧急预算用于在针对 MakerDAO 的特定参与者采取法律或监管行动时支付法律辩护费用。该基金将由一个由保险和风险管理专家组成的外部技术委员会管理，委员会将根据申请提出批准或拒绝支付的建议。[2023/2/1 11:41:30]

The MakerDAO proposal to establish a Defense Fund was voted for: on 1 February, the MakerDAO community voted for the proposal to establish a special fund, Defense Fund, to cover the costs of legal defence, which will be financed by an emergency budget of 5 million DAIs for legal or regulatory action against specific participants in MakerDAO. The fund will be administered by an external technical committee of insurance and risk management experts, which will make recommendations for approval or refusal to pay on the basis of the application. [2023/2/1 11:41:30]

利用这一模型，可以估算两种货币间汇率估值：

Using this model, two inter-currency exchange rate valuations can be estimated:

Bitfly推出开源以太坊合并浏览器beaconcha.in:9月15日消息，Bitfly推出开源以太坊合并浏览器beaconcha.in，目前已与以太坊区块浏览器etherchain.org合并。Bitfly表示，该浏览器当前功能包括地址查询、合并情况与区块信息浏览、代币信息浏览等，之后将支持ENS、图表、未确认交易池信息等。[2022/9/15 6:56:58]

Bitfly launched the Open Source E-Team merger browser beaconcha.in: On September 15, Bitfly launched the Open Source E-Team merger browser beaconcha.in, which is now merged with the Etherchain.org block browser. Bitfly states that the current functions of the browser include address queries, merger and block information browsing, token information browsing, etc., and will support ENS, graphs, unacknowledged pool information, etc. [2022/9:56:58]

假设国家A=?美国，国家B=?以太坊，ETH兑美元汇率将在以下情况下升值：

Assuming country A =? United States, country B =? Etherno, the exchange rate of ETH against the United States dollar will appreciate if:

以太坊GDP(Y_ETH)?增长快于美国GDP(Y_US)；美国货币供应量的增长速度快于以太坊货币供应量；美元货币流通速度?(V_US)?的增长速度快于ETH货币流通速度?(V_ETH)；

(a) In the case of Taiwan gross domestic product (Y_ETH)? Growth was faster than that of the United States (Y_US); in the case of the United States, the supply of currency grew faster than that of the Pacific currency; and in the case of the United States dollar currency? (V_US)? The rate of growth was faster than that of the ETH currency? (V_ETH);

加密投资平台Bitpanda增加大宗商品交易:9月6日消息，加密投资平台Bitpanda在其平台上增加了大宗商品交易，允许用户交易石油、天然气、铝和小麦以及加密货币、股票和交易所交易基金（ETF）。用户将能够通过衍生品合约获得交易所交易商品（ETC）的敞口。Bitpanda将持有ETC。与其金属投资功能不同，用户无法购买实物资产的股份。（The Block）[2022/9/6 13:12:06]

An encrypted investment platform, Bitpanda, increases the volume of commodity transactions: September 6th news that an encrypted investment platform, Bitpanda, adds a large volume of commodity transactions to its platform, allowing users to trade in oil, gas, aluminium and wheat, as well as encrypted funds for currency, stock and exchange transactions (ETFs). Users will be able to access the openings of exchange trading commodities (ETCs) through derivatives contracts. Bitpanda will hold ETC. Unlike its metal investment function, users will not be able to purchase shares in real assets.

以货币供应量为例，自去年以来，美联储资产负债表大规模扩张，ETH的美元价格大幅上涨就是例证。

In the case of money supply, the Fed's balance sheet has expanded significantly since last year, as evidenced by the sharp increase in the dollar price of ETH.

类似地，以太坊GDP增速与ETH价格应该存在一一对应的关系。虽然没有统计局为「以太坊国家」编制「GDP」，?但是可以从交易、钱包、总锁仓价值的增长率间接推断出GDP增长。钱包的增长可以认为是该国「工作人口」的增加，TVL的增长反映经济中金融部门的增长。

Similarly, there should be a corresponding relationship between the rate of growth in Taiyan GDP and ETH prices. Although there is no statistical office to produce GDP for the “Ethiophone countries,” GDP growth can be inferred indirectly from the rate of growth in the value of transactions, wallets, and lockouts.

实证数据印证了这些变量和代币/美元汇率之间的关系，交易量增长与ETH价格增长呈现近乎线性的相关性，交易量增长10%意味着价格平均增长13%：

Empirical data confirm the relationship between these variables and the currency/dollar exchange rate, the near linear correlation between the increase in the volume of transactions and the ETH price growth, the 10 per cent increase in the volume of transactions means an average price increase of 13 per cent:

同样，钱包总数增长10%意味着价格平均上涨7%：

Similarly, a 10 per cent increase in the total wallet represents an average price increase of 7 per cent:

惊人的是，钱包增长的加速度与ETH价格增长几乎存在1:1的关系：

Surprisingly, the acceleration of wallet growth has been associated with almost 1:1 ETH price growth:

虚拟世界中的软件开发就像实体经济中的建筑业——GDP增长的领先指标，L1平台上开发人员的活动，相比交易或钱包而言更能预示即将到来的经济扩张。

Software development in the virtual world is like a leading indicator of GDP growth in the construction sector in the real economy, and the activities of developers on the L1 platform are more a portent of the impending economic expansion than transactions or wallets.

2021年5月份在Github上搜索「ethereum」和「solana」，前者返回的repo结果是后者的65倍。?到了10?月，倍数已缩减至17倍——与「Solana国家」的快速增长呈现正相关。

In May 2021, the search for "etherium" and "solana" on Github was 65 times the result of the former’s return of repo. By October, the multipliers had been reduced to 17 times – a positive correlation with the rapid growth of the “Solana country.”

对于数字货币而言，上述货币汇率模型没有考虑另一个关键变量：区块链平台现金流的稳定性，对于L1代币的稳定性来说，这非常重要。

For digital currencies, the above-mentioned currency exchange rate model does not take into account another key variable: the stability of cash flows from block-chain platforms, which is important for the stability of the L1 generation.

政府成为货币的垄断发行者绝非偶然。?历史上有许多民间货币，但它们从来没有持续很长时间，而且总是被政府货币所淘汰。民间货币的诸多问题中，「财政基础」的缺失是最为严重的一个问题。

Historically, there have been many private currencies, but they have never lasted long and have always been phased out by government currencies. Among the many problems of private currencies, the lack of a “fiscal base” is the most serious one.

政府可以通过税收保护其货币的价值，这是最稳定、几乎有保障的收入。?即使法币是「无支持的」，政府也可以通过征税来筹集资源，并使用这些资源来购买/出售其货币以捍卫其价值，这能给货币持有者带来信，非政府货币不能。

Governments can protect the value of their currencies through taxation, which is the most stable and almost assured income. Even if the French currency is “unsupported,” Governments can raise resources by taxing them and using them to buy/sell their currencies to defend their value, which can give credibility to the money-holders, and not to the non-governmental currency.

但是，现在不一样了。

But now it's different.

将交易费用编入平台上的每项经济活动，并用于代币销毁或抵押奖励，「区块链国家」的货币正在获得类似于政府货币的财政支持。虽然这些现金流不能确定代币价格，但从长远来看，它们有助于保持汇率稳定。

The currencies of the “block chain countries” are receiving financial support similar to that of the government. While these cash flows do not determine the price of the currencies, they help to maintain exchange rate stability in the long run.

但对代币价格而言，最重要的仍然是加密货币「国家」的GDP增长。由于元宇宙仅处于原始阶段，故事才刚刚开始。

But the most important thing for the price of a token is still the growth in GDP of an encrypted currency, the country. The story is only just beginning, as the meta-cosmos is only in its infancy.

标签：ETHGDP以太坊BITAETH币gdp币种西格玛币兑换以太坊公告UPbit交易所

Label:

注册有任何问题请添加 微信：MVIP619 拉你进入群

打开微信扫一扫

添加客服

进入交流群

文章转载注明 网址：https://netpsp.com/?id=68991