加密市场最讨厌的反弹已证实了牛市的到来

币圈资讯 阅读:50 2024-04-22 12:50:47 评论:0
美化布局示例

欧易(OKX)最新版本

【遇到注册下载问题请加文章最下面的客服微信】永久享受返佣20%手续费!

APP下载   全球官网 大陆官网

币安(Binance)最新版本

币安交易所app【遇到注册下载问题请加文章最下面的客服微信】永久享受返佣20%手续费!

APP下载   官网地址

火币HTX最新版本

火币老牌交易所【遇到注册下载问题请加文章最下面的客服微信】永久享受返佣20%手续费!

APP下载   官网地址

作者:David Canellis,blockworks 翻译:善欧巴,比特币买卖交易网

加密市场一向变幻莫测。在这个领域,基本面不像股票那样直接影响价格,估值反而往往反映了一种令人不安的氛围,个人崇拜,以及梗概念的混合。

由于这个原因,投资和交易加密变得模糊不清。活跃用户、手续费产生、总锁定价值,甚至开发者数量,这些都是应该重要的度量标准。但实际上并非如此。

情绪至上,数字资产之间的高度相关性意味着当比特币遭遇困境时,整个市场几乎总是受到影响。

因此,毫不奇怪,“被讨厌的涨势”这一概念在我们当前的熊市周期显示出放缓迹象时应运而生。这个观点是,加密变得越不受喜爱,就越有可能在山寨币季到来时大幅上涨。

以 Solana(SOL)为例,自从大约在2018年被冠以“以太坊杀手”的名号以来,它就吸引了来自 Vitalik 迷的批评者。与以太坊一样,Solana支持应用程序、NFT、稳定币和代币,但吞吐量大约是后者的100倍。

加密纯粹主义者可能会争辩说,由于其较低的节点数量(大约为2,900至7,700)以及启动验证节点所需的高成本,该网络比以太坊更为中心化。

另一方面,比特币死忠们可能会因为 Solana 首次发行代币而对其不屑一顾。(其委托权益证明共识模型对橙色币群体也毫不利。)

在FTX破产的时候,Ethereans 和 Bitcoiners 的对 Solana 的憎恶被加剧了。现已被定罪的骗子 Sam Bankman-Fried 曾是 Solana 最讨厌的支持者之一,他从一开始就资助了 Solana 生态系统的大部分项目。

o43XTCf88NJHZCiWNvz25BbVLdei5yxEGNkaTReB.png

Solana 是今年表现最好的前100加密货币之一,涨幅超过 400%,从不到 10 美元涨到了 56 美元以上。仅在上个月,SOL 就翻了一番。 

要达到其在2021年创下的最高价,SOL 仍需要翻三倍半。但尽管有这么多的讨厌者,Solana 轻松超过了前两名:ETH 今年迄今上涨约70%,BTC 上涨约120%。

最近的其他“讨厌的涨势”包括 Terra Luna Classic(LUNC)——这是权威不足的算法稳定币帝国中心的同一加密货币。LUNC 上周末一天上涨了 40% 以上。

由 Terra 社区在没有 Kwon 的情况下推动的新版 LUNA 代币在同一天上涨了 73%,而曾经是 Bankman-Fried 仍破产的加密交易所 FTX 的本地代币 FTT 翻了一番。

即便是 Bored Ape Yacht Club NFT 的底价自 8 月份以来也上涨了60%,从 37,000 美元涨到了 60,000 美元以上。相比之下,标准普尔 500 指数同期上涨 2%。

所有这一切是否意味着更多的讨厌者会导致更大的价格波动?在从数据服务提供商The Tie获取情绪读数之后,我并不完全相信。

The Tie记录显示,在市值前100的加密货币中,有近三分之二的长期负面情绪,这些加密货币并非稳定币、封装或其他方式抵押的代币。到目前为止,只有大约四分之一的这些加密货币的表现超过了比特币。

东西方连接的 Conflux 涨幅达到 640%,并列领先的还有 Solana、FTT 和 THORChain,自一月份以来翻了四倍。

同时,大约四分之一左右的年初情绪积极的前30多个加密货币已经击败了比特币。其中包括 MakerDAO 的160%涨幅和 Injective 的庞大1100%的增长。

(The Tie的数据科学副总裁 Erik Saberski 告诉我,长期情绪是通过收集关于某些加密货币的Twitter帖子并测量它们的积极或消极程度来计算的。这是一种“袋装单词”的简单方法,其中每个单词都有一个情感分数:有些是负面的,有些是积极的。如果单词的平均值是积极的,整个推文就是积极的;如果单词的平均值是负面的,那就是负面的。)

SNF8eXVoG9EX2J5AmrcctYw5V0jCKJ0sWkvXMl8m.png

数据表明,负面情绪在年初困扰了大多数热门加密货币,在比特币复苏后,许多货币变得积极。鉴于这次加密寒冬有多么残酷,这都是可以预料的。当然,今年有很多负面情绪的加密货币都大幅上涨了,但因为几乎所有这些货币都受到了不好的氛围的影响,我们不应该过分解读。

数据确实显示了相反的情况。负面情绪与低回报之间存在关联:在市值前100的60个非稳定币、封装或抵押的代币中,有三分之二在比特币表现不佳的加密货币在年初时具有负面情绪。

ApeCoin,有朝一日将成为 Yuga Labs 的 Bored Apes 元宇宙核心的代币,是最明显的例子,下跌超过 60%,而 Twitter 情绪略显负面。Craig Wright 的 BSV —— 在今年初对任何分析过的加密货币中表现最差的情绪 —— 是另一个例子,其涨幅仅为20%,而其他市场都在飙升。

因此,基于讨厌者对加密货币的讨厌程度来制定投资组合决策可能是诱人的。但最好还是坚持其他经过验证的指标 —— 比如,占星对齐?


The encryption market of Shanouba Bitcoin trading network has always been unpredictable. In this field, the fundamentals do not directly affect the price valuation like stocks, but often reflect a disturbing atmosphere. Personality cult and the concept of terrier are mixed. For this reason, investment and transaction encryption become blurred, active user fees generate total lock-in value and even the number of developers. These are all important metrics, but in fact they are not so emotional. There is a high correlation between digital assets. Sex means that when Bitcoin is in trouble, the whole market is almost always affected, so it is not surprising that the concept of the hated rise comes into being when our current bear market cycle shows signs of slowing down. This view is that the less popular encryption becomes, the more likely it will rise sharply when the counterfeit currency season comes. For example, since it was named the Ethereum killer in about, it has attracted fans' critics to support the application to stabilize coins and tokens like Ethereum, but it has a large throughput. Encryption purists may argue that the network is more centralized than Ethereum because of its low number of nodes and the high cost of starting verification nodes. On the other hand, bitcoin die-hards may disdain its entrustment rights because of the initial issuance of tokens, and the consensus model is not beneficial to the orange coin group. At the time of bankruptcy, the hatred of the right has been intensified. The convicted liar was once one of the most annoying supporters. He funded it from the beginning. Most of the projects in the ecosystem have been one of the best-performing cryptocurrencies this year, with the increase exceeding from less than US dollars to more than US dollars, which doubled only in the last month, but it still needs to be tripled and a half to reach its highest price set in 2008. However, although there are so many annoying people who easily surpass the top two, they have risen about this year, and other annoying gains recently include that this is an algorithm with insufficient authority to stabilize the currency. The same cryptocurrency in the center of the empire rose more than one day last weekend by the community. Under the circumstances, the new version of tokens promoted rose on the same day, while the local tokens of crypto-exchanges that were still bankrupt doubled. Even the reserve price has risen from US dollars to more than US dollars since January. In contrast, the Standard & Poor's index has risen over the same period. Does all this mean that more pesky people will lead to greater price fluctuations? After obtaining emotional readings from data service providers, I am not entirely convinced that records show that cryptocurrencies before market value are nearly two-thirds long. Negative emotions: these cryptocurrencies are not tokens sealed by stable currencies or mortgaged by other means. So far, only about a quarter of these cryptocurrencies have outperformed Bitcoin, and the growth rate of East-West connection has reached a tie-leading position. At the same time, it has quadrupled since January, and about a quarter of the top cryptocurrencies with positive emotions at the beginning of the year have defeated Bitcoin, including the increase and huge growth. The vice president of data science told me that long-term emotions are through income. Collect posts about some cryptocurrencies and measure their positive or negative degree to calculate. This is a simple way to bag words, in which each word has an emotional score, some are negative and some are positive. If the average value of words is positive, the whole tweet is positive. If the average value of words is negative, it is negative data. It shows that negative emotions have plagued most popular cryptocurrencies at the beginning of the year. After the recovery of Bitcoin, many currencies have become positive. It can be expected how cruel the winter is. Of course, cryptocurrencies with many negative emotions have risen sharply this year, but because almost all these currencies have been affected by the bad atmosphere, we should not over-interpret the data. It does show that there is a correlation between negative emotions and low returns. Two-thirds of the tokens packaged or mortgaged by unstable currencies before the market value have poor performance in Bitcoin, and cryptocurrencies with negative emotions will become RMB one day at the beginning of the year. The token at the core of the universe is the most obvious example, but the mood is slightly negative. At the beginning of this year, the mood with the worst performance in any cryptocurrency analyzed is another example, and its increase is only while other markets are soaring. Therefore, it may be tempting to make a portfolio decision based on the disgust of cryptocurrencies, but it is best to stick to other proven indicators such as astrological alignment. 比特币今日价格行情网_okx交易所app_永续合约_比特币怎么买卖交易_虚拟币交易所平台

文字格式和图片示例

注册有任何问题请添加 微信:MVIP619 拉你进入群

弹窗与图片大小一致 文章转载注明 网址:https://netpsp.com/?id=63273

美化布局示例

欧易(OKX)最新版本

【遇到注册下载问题请加文章最下面的客服微信】永久享受返佣20%手续费!

APP下载   全球官网 大陆官网

币安(Binance)最新版本

币安交易所app【遇到注册下载问题请加文章最下面的客服微信】永久享受返佣20%手续费!

APP下载   官网地址

火币HTX最新版本

火币老牌交易所【遇到注册下载问题请加文章最下面的客服微信】永久享受返佣20%手续费!

APP下载   官网地址
可以去百度分享获取分享代码输入这里。
声明

1.本站遵循行业规范,任何转载的稿件都会明确标注作者和来源;2.本站的原创文章,请转载时务必注明文章作者和来源,不尊重原创的行为我们将追究责任;3.作者投稿可能会经我们编辑修改或补充。

发表评论
平台列表
美化布局示例

欧易(OKX)

  全球官网 大陆官网

币安(Binance)

  官网

火币(HTX)

  官网

Gate.io

  官网

Bitget

  官网

deepcoin

  官网
关注我们

若遇到问题,加微信客服---清歌

搜索
排行榜
扫一扫,加我为微信好友加我为微信好友