过往看未来 | 月涨幅300%的SOL还会持续?

币圈资讯 阅读:55 2024-04-22 12:47:41 评论:0
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作者:Austin Barack 编译:Techub News-Morffi

Solana Breakpoint 2023 是 Solana 社区于 10 月 30 日-11 月 3 日在阿姆斯特丹举行的年度生态大会,许多 Solana 生态上的项目都在会上更新了项目进展。 本文作者就Breakpoint 的演变、Solana 近一年的发展,以及Solana 的治理讨论问题做了进一步讨论。

今天我们处于什么样的市场?

是牛市、熊市还是介于两者之间?

参加会议是真正了解市场现状的最佳途径之一。

通过参加会议,我们可以第一时间了解生态系统有多少开发人员正在构建,他们正在构建什么、面临着什么挑战、最需要解决的重点是什么。

技术堆栈中有哪些漏洞需要填补,有哪些客户需求尚未得到满足,开发者的使命感有多强,可以一目了然。多年来参加Breakpoint会议给了我对Solana的发展状况带来了难以有了深刻的了解。

Solana 的过去

这是我第二次参加Breakpoint。第一次 Breakpoint 在 2021 年下半年的里斯本,并计划参加2022年Breakpoint,但不幸地是肩部韧带撕裂,不得不在家里(错过了真是非常失望,但还是密切关注着!)。

2021年,是牛市泡沫的巅峰时期,$SOL价格超过200美元。Solana的总锁定价值(TVL) 持续上升,其区块链设计以可扩展性、吞吐量、低延迟和广泛的组合性为特点,赢得了大家的青睐。

参与者中有很多优秀的开发者,来自其他生态系统的开发者探索跨链部署甚至迁移到 Solana,也有许多实力雄厚的投资者、企业甚至大型 Web2 公司。

然而,也有一些人并没有真正了解技术,只是早早地购买了代币并赚了很多钱。Solana 有很大的潜力,但网络还采用初级阶段。

就像当时加密货币领域的其他刚起步的项目($Bnb、$Matic等)一样,短期内大家的期望高于现实。

2022年牛市泡沫破裂,3AC(三箭资本)崩溃,LUNA崩溃以及BlockFi、Voyager和Celsius的失败引发了恐慌和不稳定,导致所有代币价格下跌,危及所有在加密货币领域建设的良好参与者。

$SOL价格从200多美元下跌至30美元左右(几乎所有其他主要资产的跌幅都与之相当,甚至更大)。Solana遭遇了网络不稳定,严重损害了其信誉。一些大型应用被淘汰,许多早期发行的代币设计目光短浅,流通浮动量低,FDV 高,损害了生态系统。

尽管如此,社区表现出了很大的韧性(更多详情见下文),仍然留在生态系统中,进行了技术加固的改进,并出现了新的发展迹象。Solana 成为无可比拟的 NFT 生态系统第二名,仅次于以太坊。

创新的势头和高知名度的合作伙伴关系势头可想而知。Helium宣布从自己的网络迁移到Solana。QUIC和权益加权QOS已经部署。

收费市场以及优先交易费正在推出。交易规模增加、紧凑的投票状态和Firedancer正在开发中。宣布推出 Saga 手机,加强了网络对移动应用的重视。

从各方面来说,Breakpoint 2022都是一次熊市会议。重点是构建和改进基础设施,以支持下阶段应用场景,并提升当前用户的体验。许多核心技术已经公布,正在测试网络上运行或正在部署。

市场情绪普遍疲软,但Solana社区仍然坚持下去,并一如既往地努力建设。

当会议结束后,FTX的消息蔓延,在投资、流动性、可见度和基础设施方面,FTX和Alameda Research一直是Solana生态系统最大的支持者之一,Solana的代币价格从30美元跌至10美元以下。

人们公开质疑Solana是否能从FTX欺诈的后果中幸存下来。很多人说Solana已经死了。

最糟糕的是,一些加密货币领域的人似乎对一个曾经风光无限的生态系统的衰落感到高兴。尽管如此,很明显Solana并没有消失的迹象。

社区团结一致,这是我在加密领域从未见过的,创始人支持其他创始人,一些投资者离开的地方,另一些人继续投资,但仍有其他人坚守阵地。

Solana的Twitte(现已更名为"X")成为一个不断鼓励、坚韧和支持的地方。社区举办了黑客马拉松,以推动开发。BONK 作为集结号发布。

一些 NFT 离开了 Solana,但 Solana 上的用户和 NFT 流动性没有离开,它一如既往地强劲。

新的 NFT 项目,如《Mad Lads》和《Claynosaurs》,在熊市中起步,成为了强者。

Render 宣布将搬迁至 Solana。DeFi 开始重新崛起。Visa 宣布将以 Solana 为基础。MakerDAO 预测其原生链有可能发展成为 SVM 链。MakerDAO暗示他们本地链发展为SVM链的潜力。

一些追求极致的加密货币参与者开始怀疑自己是否过于草率地否定了 Solana。在加强了网络稳定性之后,Solana 的技术又开始为自己代言。

它的多线程架构允许本地收费市场、并行化和与现代硬件的扩展(验证器的硬件要求实际上同时在降低)。

这意味着应用程序无需争夺网络资源,也无需面对不可预测的费用。也意味着扩展可以在 L1 上进行,无需额外的执行环境,而这些环境往往会牺牲可组合性和/或分散性。

压缩 NFT 使 NFT 造币成本比其他网络低 100 倍,随着时间的推移,这将扩展到广泛的数据压缩,可以拥有的不仅仅是 10K PFP 集合,还有 DePin 网络、拥有数百万个游戏内物品的游戏,以及为全球规模而设计的链上忠诚度计划。

Solana 也不仅仅是一个 L1,而是 SVM 成为模块化区块链设计的关键基础设施。SVM 应用链、由其他网络安全保护的 SVM L2 等。

透过"Breakpoint 2023"看未来

进入 "Breakpoint 2023",趋势正在转向,但并不是每个加密货币从业者都在关注 FTX 事件后过去一年中取得的所有进展。

"Breakpoint 2023"如果FTX事件没有发生,Solana将会处于什么地步?我们不得而知。"Breakpoint 2023"充满了高质量、顶级的建设者,团队不仅在基础设施、DeFi、钱包、NFTs、DePin等多领域进行构建。

2022 年讨论的Solana基础设施改进措施都已实施。会议充满了激情,但这种激情是有目的、有动力的。围绕未来一年潜力的情绪感觉就像一场政权转变正在发生,从熊市坚定地进入牛市。

虽然$SOL价格在会议前后翻倍(从约20美元上涨到最高47美元),但几乎没有关于价格的讨论。相反,大家都认识到,代币价格上涨最多是为了吸引新用户和开发者而进行的内容营销,实际上意义不大。

大家对于可持续上涨需要更多的链上用户、更多的吸引力、更多的应用和使用场景有着自我意识,并专注于实现这一目标。会议上弥漫着一种对工作的自我意识,但同时也清楚地感到已经具备了实现目标所需的条件。

离开"Breakpoint 2023",我比以往任何时候都更加看好Solana的未来,并相信它将在加密货币的主流采用中发挥重要作用。

我预计,在未来的2年内,将会有很多Solana独有的应用场景被构建出来。这包括高性能和可组合的DeFi,支付应用,其成本和速度比Web2或传统银行的替代品提升一个数量级。

开创性的去中心化物理基础设施网络(DePIN),互联网规模的NFTs,移动优化的游戏和社交消费者应用程序,下一代钱包以及支持上述所有内容的基础设施。如果您在这些领域或其他领域进行开发,我很乐意与您交流。


The author's compilation is the annual ecological conference held by the community in Amsterdam on March, and many ecological projects have updated the project progress at the meeting. The author of this paper further discussed the evolution, development in the past year and the discussion of governance. What kind of market are we in today? Is it a bull market or a bear market? Participating in the meeting is one of the best ways to truly understand the current market situation. By attending the meeting, we can know how many developers are building the ecosystem at the first time. What they are building, what challenges they are facing, the most important point to be solved is what loopholes in the technology stack need to be filled, what customer needs have not been met, and how strong the developer's sense of mission can be seen at a glance. Participating in the conference for many years has brought me a difficult understanding of the development of the past. This is my second time to participate in Lisbon in the second half of 2008 and I plan to participate in 2008, but unfortunately, I have to miss it at home because of a torn shoulder ligament. Disappointed, but still paying close attention to, 2008 is the peak of the bull market bubble, and the total locked value of the price exceeding US dollars continues to rise. Its blockchain design has won everyone's favor because of its scalability, throughput, low delay and wide combination. Among the participants, many excellent developers from other ecosystems explored cross-chain deployment and even migrated to many powerful investors, enterprises and even large companies. However, some people did not really understand the technology and just bought it early. There is great potential for making tokens and making a lot of money, but the network is still in the initial stage, just like other projects in the field of cryptocurrency at that time. In a short period of time, everyone's expectations are higher than those in reality. The bull market bubble burst, the three arrows of capital collapse and the failure of peace caused panic and instability, which led to the decline of all tokens' prices, endangering all good participants in the field of cryptocurrency. The price dropped from many dollars to around US dollars, and almost all other major assets fell by the same amount. The instability of the network has seriously damaged its reputation, and some large-scale applications have been eliminated. Many tokens issued in the early days have been short-sighted, and the low floating volume has damaged the ecosystem. Nevertheless, the community has shown great resilience. For more details, see below, it has remained in the ecosystem, made technical reinforcement and improvement, and showed new signs of development, becoming the second place in the unparalleled ecosystem, second only to the innovation momentum of Ethereum and the high-profile partnership momentum. Cloth has migrated from its own network to rights and interests weighting, and the charging market has been deployed, as well as the priority transaction fees are being launched. The scale of transactions has increased, the compact voting status and the announcement of the launch of mobile phones are under development, which has strengthened the network's emphasis on mobile applications. From all aspects, it is a bear market meeting. The focus is on building and improving infrastructure to support the next application scenario and enhance the current user experience. Many core technologies have been announced, and the market sentiment is generally weak. The community persisted and worked hard to build as always. When the meeting ended, news spread in terms of investment liquidity, visibility and infrastructure, and the price of tokens, which had always been one of the biggest supporters of the ecosystem, fell from US dollars to below US dollars. People openly questioned whether they could survive the consequences of fraud. Many people said that they were dead. The worst thing is that some people in the cryptocurrency field seem to be happy with the decline of an ecosystem that once had unlimited scenery. However, it is obviously not. Disappearing signs of community unity This is the place where I have never seen the founders support other founders, some investors leave, others continue to invest, but others still hold their ground. Now it has been renamed as a local community that constantly encourages perseverance and support. Hackathons have been held to promote development as assembly numbers, and some users and liquidity have left, but it is as strong as ever. New projects such as starting in a bear market and becoming a strong one have been announced. The announcement that it will move to the beginning of re-emergence will predict that its native chain may develop into a chain, suggesting that their local chain has the potential to develop into a chain. Some cryptocurrency participants who pursue the ultimate are beginning to doubt whether they have rashly denied the technology after strengthening the stability of the network and started to speak for themselves. Its multi-threaded architecture allows the local toll market to be parallelized and the hardware requirements of the extended verifier with modern hardware are actually decreasing at the same time, which means that the application does not need to compete. Taking network resources without facing unpredictable costs also means that expansion can be carried out on the Internet without additional execution environment, and these environments often sacrifice composability and or decentralized compression, making the cost of coinage lower than that of other networks. Over time, this will be extended to a wide range of data compression, which can have not only collections, but also games with millions of in-game items on the network and loyalty programs on the chain designed for global scale, not just one, but also modularity. The key infrastructure of blockchain design, the application chain is protected by other network security, etc. By looking at the future, the trend is turning, but not every cryptocurrency practitioner is concerned about all the progress made in the past year after the incident. If the incident does not happen, we don't know where it will be. We are full of high-quality top builders, not only in infrastructure wallet and other fields, but the infrastructure improvement measures discussed in the year have been implemented. The meeting is full of passion, but this kind of excitement. Emotion is purposeful and dynamic. It feels like a regime change is taking place from a bear market to a bull market. Although the price doubled from about US dollars to the highest US dollar before and after the meeting, there was almost no discussion about the price. On the contrary, everyone realized that the price increase of tokens was mostly to attract new users and developers. Content marketing is actually of little significance. Everyone needs more online users, more attraction and more applications for sustainable rise. The usage scenario is self-aware and dedicated to achieving this goal. At the meeting, there is a self-awareness of work, but at the same time, I clearly feel that I have the necessary conditions to achieve the goal. I am more optimistic about the future than ever before and believe that it will play an important role in the mainstream adoption of cryptocurrency. I expect that many unique application scenarios will be built in the next year, including high-performance and combinable payment applications, whose cost and speed are an order of magnitude higher than those of traditional bank substitutes, and the mobile superiority of decentralized physical infrastructure, network and Internet scale is groundbreaking. 比特币今日价格行情网_okx交易所app_永续合约_比特币怎么买卖交易_虚拟币交易所平台

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