NFT 2024 十大预言

币圈资讯 阅读:39 2024-04-22 12:34:46 评论:0
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作者:sleepy.mid,INFJ创始人 来源:X(原推特)@sleepy0x13

快到年底了,突发奇想,想对现在自己的一些想法做个快照,等明年年底的时候再来验证有多少成真又有多少超出了我的想象。

1. 一些NFT IP会真的带动Mass Adoption

个人认为,靠挑战现有金融体系来实现Mass Adoption是不太现实的,虽然我们这个行业的正派从业者都有着一个去中心化理想,并且在一些通胀严重的国家、外贸交易等场景中已经相对普及,但是对于我们平时生活的环境来说,通过token来实现Mass Adoption是不太现实的。而NFT IP本身代表了持续的内容输出能力,在我看来内容才是更好吸引圈外人的方式,通过内容的吸引再加上技术方面降低入场门槛才有机会实现Mass Adoption。难的从来都不是教圈外人怎么用钱包,难的是说服圈外人为啥非得用钱包。

2. 还活着的老项目在下个牛市都是蓝筹

这里的「活着」我不是用地板价、交易量等作为评判标准,而是要看团队是否还在做事情。下面这些话我想送给行业中的创业者,要相信付出是会有回报的,虽然我们总说这个行业总是不奖励长期主义,但我们做过的事情总会被人看见,真正的长期主义是一定会有收获的。

3. PFP Collection仍然是NFT的主流形式

这里我的意思是,大多数想通过NFT来做一个营销工作的项目,仍然会采用头像的形式来发行他们的NFT,因为用户换上头像之后会在各个社交媒体中成为项目的宣传口径,举一个可能不太恰当但是能很好表达我想法的例子,头像Holder的社交媒体账户会变成各个社交媒体平台上的分众传媒。

4. 缺少载体的PFP很难活过6个月

这里的「载体」,用大白话说就是「你们项目到底是做啥的」,比如说跳海也在做各种活动和营销但主业是卖酒。项目需要有完整的商业模式,留给新项目去在发售后慢慢摸索商业模式的时间会越来越少,也就是说创业者不能再等卖完NFT再去完成未来规划、资源整合,而是要把这些前置。

5. 新的Meme PFP生命周期会更短

Meme是永远不会消失的,是永远都会层出不穷的,2024年Meme NFT生命周期会比现在还要短暂,个别项目的财富效应会更疯狂。

6. 艺术家在商业项目中的地位会进一步变低

各方面都是顶级的天王级项目不太讨论行列之内。随着AI的发展,NFT项目美术方面的差距会被抹平,除非IP本身的设计有着极强的独特性,艺术家可能在个人的艺术项目中仍旧会是主导,但是在商业项目中会原来越像工具人。

7. RWA赛道里NFT大有可为

没有很深入的研究过RWA,所以可能有些想法会有些错误,欢迎指正。RWA最重要的就是现实世界的资产包是什么,站在个人角度,我更感兴趣的资产包是线下店铺的收入权。前段时间和一位Web2的投资人朋友交流,现在他们在尝试使用滴灌通的模式来投资线下店铺,具体模式不赘述了,感兴趣的话可以自己查查看,我挺期待通过持有某些NFT来获得几家线下店的收益权。当然法币和crypto中间怎么转换也是一个待解决的问题,不过非常期待。

8. NFT流动性解决方案持续迭代,现有的产品都面临挑战

我不是学金融的,平时炒币也不多,拍脑袋想想比如说把Blur和Flooring这两个NFT流动性解决方案做个组合是不是会更合理呢,再加一些骚活儿。我把Blur视作一个NFT流动性解决方案而不只是交易市场,想干掉Blur、OpenSea之类的创业者们是不是也可以换个思路来想一想呢。

9. Fully Virtual的元宇宙将持续低迷,但非常看好虚实结合的应用场景

纯虚拟那就很吃体验了,尤其是又套上个元宇宙的名字,体验一般般的都会挨骂,更别说大部分连「一般」都还做不到。再加上社交属性、实时渲染等各种难题不断的上强度,技术角度看2024年大概率没戏。但我非常看好虚实结合的体验,在虚拟资产把我们带入它们的世界之前,先把它们带入我们的世界。

10. 会出现一个跨多个赛道的超级NFT项目

从NFT IP开始的项目是有非常大想象空间的,原因很简单,IP能够适配任何产品、任何赛道。举个例子,任何项目,无论是DeFi、RWA、GameFi、社交、元宇宙、潮牌等等都能用小幽灵IP作为项目的「代言人」。所以,在团队想认真做事情的前提下,NFT项目有极大的延展空间,后面可以接上各类项目。当然,同时铺这么广的管线对于初创公司是根本不可能的,我只是提出一个可能性,创业者还是应该脚踏实地,一步一脚印。


The author, the founder and the source of the original Twitter are coming to the end of the year, and I have a whim to take a snapshot of some of my ideas now, and then I will verify how many of them come true and how many are beyond my imagination by the end of next year. Some of them will really drive individuals to think that it is unrealistic to achieve it by challenging the existing financial system. Although decent practitioners in our industry have a decentralized ideal and have been relatively popular in some foreign trade transactions in countries with serious inflation, for our usual life, It is not realistic to realize the living environment through, but it represents the continuous content output ability. In my opinion, content is a better way to attract outsiders. It is difficult to achieve it by attracting content and lowering the entry threshold through technical aspects. It is never difficult to teach outsiders how to use wallets. It is difficult to convince outsiders why they have to use wallets. Old projects that are still alive in the next bull market are all blue chips. I don't use floor prices, trading volume, etc. as a criterion, but it depends on the team. Are you still doing something? I want to give the following words to entrepreneurs in the industry. I believe that paying will pay off. Although we always say that this industry always does not reward long-termism, what we have done will always be seen. Real long-termism will definitely pay off. It is still the mainstream form. I mean here that most projects that want to do marketing work will still be released in the form of avatars, because users will become in various social media after changing their avatars. The propaganda caliber of the project is to give an example that may not be appropriate but can express my thoughts well. The social media account of the avatar will become a focus media on various social media platforms, and it will be difficult to survive for a month without a carrier. The carrier here is what your project does in plain Chinese. For example, jumping into the sea is also doing various activities and marketing, but the main business is to sell wine. The project needs to have a complete business model for new projects to explore the business model slowly after the sale. That is to say, there will be less and less time. Entrepreneurs can't wait until they are sold out to complete the integration of future planning resources, but they should make these pre-existing new life cycles shorter, which will never disappear, and the annual life cycle will always emerge endlessly, which will be shorter than now. The wealth effect of individual projects will be even crazier, and the status of artists in commercial projects will be further lowered. All aspects are top-level projects, and the gap in project art will be smoothed out with the development unless their own designs are extremely strong. Unique artists may still be dominant in personal art projects, but in commercial projects, they will be more like tool people. There is much to be done in the track, so there may be some mistakes in some ideas. Welcome to correct me. The most important thing is what the real world asset package is. From a personal point of view, I am more interested in the asset package is the income right of offline stores. I talked with an investor friend some time ago, and now they are trying to use drip irrigation to invest in offline stores. I don't need to go into details about the body model. If you are interested, you can check it yourself. I'm looking forward to getting the income rights of several offline stores by holding some. Of course, how to convert legal tender and intermediate is also a problem to be solved, but I'm very much looking forward to the continuous iteration of liquidity solutions. All existing products are facing challenges. I don't usually study finance, and I don't think much about it. For example, will it be more reasonable to combine these two liquidity solutions and add some coquettish work? I regard it as a liquidity. The solution is not just that the trading market wants to kill entrepreneurs, can we also think about it in a different way? The metauniverse will continue to be depressed, but I am very optimistic about the pure virtual application scene of the combination of reality and reality, which will be very enjoyable, especially if I put on the name of the metauniverse and experience it in general, not to mention that most of them can't even do it in general, plus various problems such as real-time rendering of social attributes, etc., but I am very optimistic about the combination of reality and reality. Experience before virtual assets bring us into their world, there will be a super project across multiple tracks. The reason why the project from the beginning has a very large imagination space is very simple. It can adapt to any product, any track, for example, any project, whether it is a social meta-cosmic tide card, etc., can use the ghost as the spokesperson of the project, so the project has a great extension space and can be connected to various projects at the back. Of course, it is impossible for startups to lay such a wide pipeline at the same time. I just want to put forward a possibility that entrepreneurs should keep their feet on the ground. 比特币今日价格行情网_okx交易所app_永续合约_比特币怎么买卖交易_虚拟币交易所平台

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