深度分析Op超级链投资价值

币圈资讯 阅读:33 2024-04-22 11:26:56 评论:0
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作者:BITWU.ETH,来源:作者推特@BTW0205

虽然我目前也持仓 $Op ,而且Op上涨很猛,但是我可能要来给OP的持有者,并且想在op上挣到百倍的朋友们,泼一盆冷水:

OP可以赚钱,但是不能赚到很多钱!

以我的投资角度来看, $Op 在爆发期可以赚到钱,所以坎昆升级和L2概念开始炒作的时候,Op和Arb都是非常好的选择标的。

但是如果追求想象中的百倍收益,或者做一个长期Holder来追求时间换空间的高回报,OP性价比不高,不具备Alpha机会,你可以换个标的了!

一、币圈必须明白的逻辑:好项目不等于Alpha机会:

本篇主要阐述一下我对于OP后期的看法,个人认为OP确实很牛,但是单纯从OP代币来说,却不具备高倍增长的可能性,这一点很有意思,很多人以为项目很牛代币就一定很牛,实际上有时候这是背道而驰的。

比如早期的DYDX,项目在那个阶段属于顶级的dex,但是项目没有给代币很好的赋能的时候,早期代币价值一直上不去,再比如ARB目前也是这种情况!

所以一个好的项目并不代表就是飞快的涨幅!币圈必须明白这个道理。

下面是我个人的一些看法:

投资中,我们时常会陷入一种误区,好项目等于好投资,而最近大家热捧的Op我觉得就是这类,是个好项目,但是OP并不是一个好的投资

二、Op项目的相关逻辑,我分六个方面展开来说一下:

1、先说说Op超级链的基本盘

先带大家通过OK这个视频了解一下超级链:https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eHgbh3rGcmw

Op本链其实发展的比较鸡肋,远不及Arb耀眼,属于中规中矩的位置,但OP Stack的发展,展现了Op不一样的战略眼光,可以说,在术的层面,Arb遥遥领先Op,在道的层面,Op却甩Arb几条街。

OP Stack你可以理解为一键发L2的工具箱,大幅简化了L2链的构建,这些分散的基于Op Stack开发的L2链共享安全性、通信层和开源技术 Stack形成了Op超级链的愿景。

2、Op超级链继承了Cosmos的愿景

玩过Cosmos生态的朋友应该都有这个感触,Cosmos的愿景正在被Op超级链实现,Cosmos也是一键发链,基于同一个框架标准,IBC将各链打通,实现各链无缝互通。

Cosmos早以实现了这一切,但缺乏市场助力,最终被ETH系的L2吸收,这也是ETH的龙头魅力,其他链的创新试错成本极高,一旦试验成功,也将被ETH系窃取果实,可以说,其他链都是ETH系的试验田。

3、Op超级链之BASE

目前,Op超级链的发展是超预期的,尤其是BASE链,Base的累积唯一地址数甚至高于 OP主网,夏季的土狗热和大火的 http://Friend.tech 均出自BASE链之手,在势头上说BASE链“弑母”都不为过,即BASE基于Op Stack开发,发展却超越了原主Op。

4、L2的“弑母”现象

“弑母”现象最早出现在Cosmos生态,Luna市值反超ATOM市值,Luna是基于Cosmos开发的链,Atom是Cosmos hub代币 “弑母”现象并非坏事,恰恰说明生态极具活力,生态参与者群雄争霸都有机会力压天子,Base链初具“弑母”潜力,恰恰验证了Op超级链的战略成功,Op提供一键发L2平台,基建全部做好,各个Op子链专注于业务和创新,从而尽显神通百花争艳。

Op超级链除了BASE,还有Zora、PGN、Mode、DeBank等等,未来加入Op超级链的玩家会越来越多,在战略上,随着Op超级链生态的丰富,最终将形成网络效应。

5、Op超级链的网络效应

Op提供发链服务和各种底层基建,吸引各方势力来此发L2链,越多参与方进驻,资金人才的汇聚又会进一步推动底层服务的完善,又能吸引更多势力入驻,最终形成了一个强大的网络效应,这就是Op超级链的护城河,一旦形成此势,很可能意味着L2战争的终结,Op超级链独霸L2生态。 形成网络效应,打造护城河,独霸L2生态或许才是Op超级链最终战略目标。

以上种种都是在说好的一面,下面就主要展开说说,Op不具备高增长效应的主要因素:

为啥Op代币不具备Alpha机会?

当然,Op作为投资标的,稳定跑赢通胀问题不大,但是我这里所谓Alpha机会就是超额收益,放在股市是10倍,放在币圈就是类似于ETH和AXS类似的100倍甚至更高。

先说结论,以ETH作为锚定标,Op只有略多于Beta收益(大盘收益),无超额收益,再说具体逻辑,主要有两个逻辑:

一、Op代币赋能难题

这也是所有L2代币赋能难题 首先安全层攫取了大部分利益,Op超级链的安全层就是ETH,L2的前提就是基于L1的安全性,因此L2在怎么设计经济模型,大头利益(属于ETH)永远都动不了,所以L2链代币可剩余的操作赋能空间就只剩一部分了。 没办法,L2的先提条件就是如此,L2链代币的赋能就好比一个先天发育不足的小孩,后天营养在怎么怼,始终有限。

先天问题谈完了,在谈后天优化部分 后天部分可以分为资产属性和功能属性:

资产属性上,Op代币目前并不具备,直接看DEX的LP交易对,主要是ETH和各个稳定币,这一点上甚至不如ATOM,ATOM在Cosmos生态中也是出现了赋能难题,但ATOM在子链的DEX中是作为主力资产的,LP池的配对量非常高。

在功能属性上,Op代币不太可能作为L2链的Gas币,这倒不是技术上的难题,而是用户体验的问题,一旦Op代币强制作为Gas币,竞争者会笑疯,甚至可能遭到ETH社区抵制。 共享排序器赋能变数大 当然还有大家提到最多的共享排序器,用户可以将Op代币作为质押,成为排序者,并为其服务收取费用。这是目前最好的Op代币赋能方案,但是这中间的变数太多了。 首先就是利益冲突,早在2021年,Op就在讲去中心化排序器,为何迟迟不落地呢,真的是技术难度大,或许有,但更可能是利益上的权衡,中心化的排序器收益权全归项目方自己,为什么要把这个收益权送给大家。 其次,Op代币到底赋能不赋能其实跟生态没有直接关系,生态该发展还得发展,看看BASE链,因为L2链确实是不需要发币(暴击),发币的核心需求还是为了早期的融资,所以大家并没有想,发完币之后该怎么设计模型和解决赋能问题。

那什么时候去中心化排序器会推出? 两种情况: 1、因为中心化排序器带来的直接风险事件 2、其他L2推出了去中心化排序器,倒逼Op 否者,让Op项目方自觉放下手里的金饭碗有点不现实,也不符合人性。

二、Op估值被一级市场过于挖掘

大家可以仔细研究下今年Op的流通市值增长和Op的价格图,你一定会惊讶,Op今年各种大招轰炸,为啥代币表现平平,一方面是市场环境限制,但你细看Op的流通市值,你才愕然道,原来Op代币的流通市值今年翻了5倍 流通市值高速倍级增长,但代币价格却萎靡不振,只能是一种情况,就是新代币的超高速率释放,大量数倍于现有流通数量的新Op代币进入市场。

这就是另一个Op代币不为人知的秘密,所以大家看FDV(全市值)是非常有必要的,目前Op的FDV是54亿美金,流通市值是11亿。

短期你可以忽略FDV,但如果你是长期囤Op,就必须看FDV,而不是只看流通市值,因为大部分的Op正在等待释放进入市场,自然会牺牲Op长期价格,且这是一个钝刀慢活,在不知不觉中完成的,所以长期囤Op,又想获得超高赔率的投资者,好好看看Op的FDV,如果在FDV的基础上,你还认为有超额赔率的话,那就可以长期赌高赔率,否者就老实吃Beta收益,因为来错场地了!

生态


Author Source Author Twitter Although I also hold positions at present, and the increase is very fierce, I may come to give my holders and friends who want to earn a hundred times in the world a pot of cold water to make money, but I can't make a lot of money. From my investment point of view, I can make money during the outbreak period, so Cancun is a very good choice when upgrading and the concept begins to hype, but if I pursue an imaginary hundred times of income or make a long-term pursuit of time for space, the high return is not cost-effective. Opportunity you can change the target. The logic that a coin circle must understand is that a good project is not equal to an opportunity. This article mainly expounds my views on the later period. Personally, I think it is really awesome, but it does not have the possibility of high growth simply from tokens. This is very interesting. Many people think that the project is awesome, and tokens must be awesome. In fact, sometimes this is the opposite. For example, the early projects were top-notch at that stage, but the value of early tokens has been constant when the projects did not give tokens a good empowerment. For example, this is also the case at present, so a good project does not mean that it is a rapid increase. The currency circle must understand this truth. The following are my personal views. In investment, we often fall into a misunderstanding. Recently, I think this kind of project is a good project, but it is not a good investment. I will start from six aspects to talk about the basic disk of the super chain. Let me take you through this video to understand it first. In fact, the development of the super-chain is far less than dazzling, which belongs to the position of the rules and regulations, but its development shows a different strategic vision. It can be said that it is far ahead of the technical level, but it is a few blocks away from the road level. You can understand that the toolbox of one-click hair greatly simplifies the construction of the chain. These scattered development-based chains share the security communication layer and open source technology to form the vision of the super-chain. The vision inherited by the super-chain should be surpassed by friends who have played with ecology. The realization of hierarchical chain is also a one-click chain. Based on the same framework standard, all the chains are opened to realize seamless intercommunication, which is achieved early, but it lacks market help and is finally absorbed by the chain. This is also the charm of the leader. Once the experiment is successful, the cost of innovation and trial and error of other chains will be extremely high. It can be said that other chains are experimental fields. At present, the development of super chains is beyond expectations, especially the cumulative number of unique addresses of chains is even higher than that of the main network. The dog fever and fire in summer are all from the chain. In terms of momentum, it is not an exaggeration to say that the chain is killing its mother, that is, the phenomenon of killing its mother based on development has surpassed the original owner. The phenomenon of killing its mother first appeared in the ecological market value, and the chain based on development is a token. The phenomenon of killing its mother is not a bad thing, which just shows that the ecological participants are very dynamic and have the opportunity to compete for hegemony, and the potential of killing their mother has just verified the strategic success of the super chain, providing a one-click platform, and all the sub-chains are well focused on business and innovation. Besides, there will be more and more players who will join the super chain in the future. Strategically, with the rich ecology of the super chain, the network effect of the super chain will eventually form, providing hair chain services and various underlying infrastructures to attract forces from all sides. The more participants enter the hair chain, the more capital and talents will be gathered, which will further promote the improvement of the underlying services and attract more forces to settle in, and finally form a powerful network effect. Once this situation is formed, it is likely to mean war. The end of the super chain dominates the ecology to form a network effect, and creating a moat dominates the ecology may be the ultimate strategic goal of the super chain. All of the above are on the bright side. Let's mainly talk about the main factors that do not have high growth effect. Why do tokens have no opportunity? Of course, it is not a big problem to stably outperform inflation as an investment target, but what I mean here is that the opportunity is that the excess return is doubled in the stock market and doubled or even higher in the currency circle. Besides, there are two main logics in concrete logic: one is the problem of token empowerment, which is also the problem of all tokens empowerment. First of all, the security layer of the super chain has seized most of the benefits, and the premise is the security based on it. Therefore, how to design the economic model, the interests of the big head can never be moved, so there is only a part of the remaining operational empowerment space for chain tokens, and there is no way to pre-empt it. The empowerment of chain tokens is like a congenital underdevelopment. How is the acquired nutrition of children always limited? After talking about the acquired optimization, the acquired part can be divided into asset attributes and functional attributes. At present, tokens do not have direct transaction pairs, mainly with various stable coins, which is even worse than the empowerment problem in ecology. However, in the sub-chain, the matching amount of the pool as the main asset is very high. In terms of functional attributes, tokens are unlikely to be used as chain coins. This is not a technical problem but a user body. The problem of verification is that once tokens are forced to be competitors, they will laugh wildly and may even be resisted by the community. Of course, there are many variables in the empowerment of shared sorters. Of course, users of shared sorters who are mentioned the most can pledge tokens to become sorters and charge fees for their services. This is the best token empowerment scheme at present, but there are too many variables in it. First of all, conflicts of interest have been talked about as early as 2000. Why does decentralized sorters delay to land? It is really a technical difficulty, maybe but it is more likely that it is interests. On the balance, the income right of the centralized sorter belongs to the project itself. Why should we give this income right to everyone? Secondly, whether the tokens are empowered or not is not directly related to ecology. The development of ecology needs to be developed. Look at the chain, because the chain really does not need to issue coins to attack the core demand of issuing coins or for early financing, so everyone did not think about how to design the model and solve the empowerment problem after issuing coins. When will the centralized sorter launch two situations? Because of centralized sorting. Other direct risk events brought by the device have introduced decentralized sorters to force the project parties to consciously put down their golden rice bowls, which is a bit unrealistic and not in line with human nature. Second, the valuation has been over-exploited by the primary market. You can carefully study the growth of the circulation market value this year and the price chart. You will be surprised why the performance of tokens is flat this year. On the one hand, it is limited by the market environment, but you are surprised when you look closely at the circulation market value. The original circulation market value of tokens has doubled this year, but the circulation market value has increased exponentially, but the price of tokens has been sluggish. It can only be a situation that a large number of 比特币今日价格行情网_okx交易所app_永续合约_比特币怎么买卖交易_虚拟币交易所平台

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