拥抱牛市:2024各链应用侧生态展望和趋势

币圈资讯 阅读:40 2024-04-22 11:10:08 评论:0
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作者:0xWendy 来源:X,@0xWendy99

这一轮即将到来的牛市与之前已经有了很大不同,公链基建极大程度完善甚至多到了冗余的地步,创业项目各种玩法多到眼花缭乱。让我们从链和趋势潜进去:

一、链

1. BTC:Ordinals文艺复兴,叠加宏观多重利好

比特币作为万链之王,Ordinals无疑背靠最性感的叙事,虽然百分之九十九的铭文会在明年(甚至可能几个月后)归零,但 $MARA 等美股矿股的巨大涨幅甚至引起了传统金融市场的注意,除了减半预期,铭文手续费是重要推升因素。

之前的推文里也提过,单纯的meme很难持续,在币安等中心化交易所和VC支持的情况下,这个细分赛道更多会由项目主导,比如launchpad ($auction, $turt,$bake等),defi (staking的Babylon,各种swap),bridge ( $mubi 等),L2 (Stacks)等。

另一个有意思的趋势是,对于这次由东方主导的狂欢,西方由看不懂看不起到逐渐参与,亚洲华人主导的Unisat和OKX,到CBRC的欧美开发团队和Layer 1 Foundation,后续发展值得期待。

前几天写了篇比特币价值讨论随笔,详情可移步IOSG Ventures公众号,主要论点是,减半ETF降息等大背景下,比特币价值存储的叙事对象已经逐渐变成了主流机构,比特币价格高企数字黄金的背景下散户的参与和叙事会选择比特币生态。

2.以太坊:大而不倒,为L2退居幕后

虽然最近有些以太坊的fud,但以太坊在整个加密领域的地位和贡献毋庸置疑。2024年最值得期待的以太坊叙事无疑是坎昆升级,Sharding和Blob引入将会使L2的费用大幅降低,以太坊主链更多地作为共识层和数据可用性层退居幕后,为众多的 Layer2 网络提供底层支持,Eigenlayer 的再质押也将在明年上线主网。

但短期内rollup仍占比较小,高昂的gas对小资金散户玩耍太不友好,在诸多L2争奇斗艳的情况下也很难有新的叙事,因此我个人会将更多精力放在L2上。

3. Solana:西方机构心头好,Depin第一链

从曾经的宕机链到脱离FTX的阴影,Sol无疑是西方机构的心头好,钞能力能把人拉服。 $PYTH 和 $JTO 引发了空投热潮,Mads等NFT也表现不俗。SOL作为高性能公链,西方机构的Depin叙事与其紧紧捆绑,虽然最近又有很多人在争论depin的价值,新瓶装旧酒的盘子,但不妨碍多种力量(Multicoin等头部机构梭哈构建叙事, SOL官方也支持)把depin打造成下轮牛市的能承载泡沫的叙事主线之一。

depin的估值和想象力都会被打开, 外星人给你画地图的 $honey, 美国移动 $mobile, 渲染巨头 $rndr, 套壳CDN业务Grass, 以及最性感的AI系Akash,  Gensyn, ionet等都蓄势待发.

4. Base: 背靠好爹,应用层巧思不断

之所以把Base放在这么靠前的位置,不仅仅是因为它TVL目前在L2排名前列,也是我个人对L2发展的观点:应用驱动才是正确的战略.

base的生态基金会在投资孵化上确实也下了功夫,而且能感觉到确实有自己的逻辑和品味。如果去看base支持的项目,就会发现他们并不以技术和高性能主导,而是巧妙地利用区块链去中心化和L2低gas的特性进行了很多有意思的尝试, 从盛极一时的被Paradigm投的Friendtech,到a16z投资孵化的菠菜小游戏ethxy,再到1kx投的菠菜对战游戏play arena,再可以和Mirror等头部创作者平台产品抗衡的Paragraph,都是十分出彩的应用. 虽说团队强调Base链的去中心化和与Coinbase的业务分离,但有些事情不懂得都懂。

作为漂亮国唯一的合规交易所,CB的人脉水平能力地位自然不必多说,平台的多个应用背后金主也都是顶流, 因此明年base的发展也值得关注.

5. Blast:L2拼多多,简单粗暴有效有钱

虽然Blast像是Blur的二池,但我个人还是持积极态度. 顶级机构和创始人操盘, 虽然被戏称Lido经销商, 但巨额TVL为后续发展提供了良好基础. 之前写Blast的分析,就重点提到过其大额空投激励开发(50%),重赏之下必有勇夫,大家不会担心没有土狗可冲。而且,铁顺解释过Blast会用于构建更好的NFT生态并可能迁移Blur,因此在Blast上也可以期待会出现NFT和NFTFi的小阳春。

6. 还有一些比较有意思的基建

这里一笔带过不再赘述:并行EVM的Neon、Nomad等, V神妈叙事的局部热点Metis,团队经验丰富会玩的ZkFair,套牢投资人估计后面会拉盘的Sei/Sui , 善于cx主打流动性的Bera ,同样为lido经销商的Manta ,Defi积木的Mantle,以及技术流zk系zksync/Scroll等. 这一轮牛市会逼着许多L2抓紧发币,但发币也是缓兵之计,如果没有生态和应用,也只能沦为走向衰败的空城。

7. 对于数个游戏公链,Ronin是我比较喜欢的一个

上轮牛市的王者Axie 到跨链桥巨额被盗跌落神坛,但团队很有韧性,不但血条丰厚还继续build,近期Pixels小新星取得了相当不错的成绩, RON币价表现也值得称赞.

二、趋势

如果我们跳脱出链的视角,去总结牛市的几个趋势,可以发现:

1. 新资产发行方式以低成本高赔率带来投机狂潮

Ordi太多人说了,说点本质相似的,solana 上Zero和foaminscribe这类概率(菠菜)链上抽奖,刮刮乐一次极低成本引得一众赌徒用bot猛冲. 投机是行业发展的重要动力, 高赔率带来的多巴胺快感是牛市的代名词, 因此项目方在设计运营玩法时, 应该对这种玩法有更多的思考.

2. Meme是crypto牛市的明珠

从今年上半年的pepe到哈利波特,从傻龙到二手本田,每隔一段时间就会有现象级meme诞生. 深刻理解Meme文化是十分重要且必要的,加密精神诞生于对传统的反抗,戏谑叛逆小众极客是一种赛博美学。meme并不是无主的自然产物, 恰恰相反, 是背后资金操盘和社区情绪天时地利人和的融合, 是市场流动性和情绪的溢出,巨大的造富神话也是吸引外界资本和注意力进入加密货币的重要手段之一。玩meme的理性要义是,玩叙事让人印象深刻的第一个。比这更重要的是,玩的时候保持IQ50。

3. 应用背后是Defi,但defi未必是这轮牛市的好应用

Gamefi, socialfi 其实都是套壳defi,但个人认为defi 不会复制上个牛市的辉煌。V神的新文章也反对了过度金融化的应用,  defi套娃的门槛高,趣味性低, 可能不是mass adoption的好的选择.

4. 应用带动配套解决方案发展,闷声发大财

应用层的兴起使得Privy 以及更多AA MPC钱包解决方案等得到发展,钱包市场格局还会大变。Gamefi赛道背后的全链游戏引擎*Mud, Dojo, 也属于此类,可能用户对其并没有特别深的印象和理解,对比Unity和Unreal,gamefi/AW的相关基建也有非常大的想象空间。

5. 移动端的萌芽

虽然目前还是非常早期,但从OKX重金砸移动端钱包并取得一定成功来看,从兜里掏出来梭哈是用户的刚需。链上和移动端虽然竞争激烈,但无疑是巨大蛋糕,鹿死谁手仍未可知。

最后简单总结一下, 这轮牛市的生态可以说是百花齐放, 值得玩和期待的东西很多, 行业的发展尝试也很多。


The author's source is that this upcoming bull market is very different from the previous one. The public chain infrastructure is greatly improved or even redundant. There are so many ways to play entrepreneurial projects that we are dazzled. Let's dive into a chain from the chain and trend. As the king of ten thousand chains, Bitcoin is undoubtedly backed by the sexiest narrative. Although 99% of the inscriptions will go to zero next year or even a few months later, the huge increase in US stocks has even caused the traditional financial market. Note that in addition to halving the expected inscription fee is an important push factor, it was also mentioned in the previous tweet that it is simply difficult to continue. With the support of centralized exchanges such as Coin Security, this subdivision track will be more dominated by projects, such as various kinds, etc. Another interesting trend is that the west can't understand this carnival dominated by the East, and gradually participate in the European and American development teams led by Asian Chinese, and the subsequent development is worth looking forward to. A few days ago, I wrote an essay on bitcoin value discussion. Details can be moved. WeChat official account's main argument is that the narrative object of bitcoin value storage has gradually become a mainstream institution under the background of halving interest rate cuts. Under the background of high bitcoin price and digital gold, retail investors will choose Bitcoin Eco-Ethereum to be big but not to retreat behind the scenes. Although there have been some Ethereum recently, there is no doubt that the status and contribution of Ethereum in the whole encryption field is undoubtedly the most anticipated Ethereum narrative in Cancun, and the introduction will greatly reduce the cost. The main chain of Ethereum is more of a consensus layer and a data availability layer, and the re-pledge, which provides the bottom support for many networks, will also go online next year, but it will still occupy a relatively small and high proportion in the short term. It is too unfriendly to play with small-capital retail investors, and it is difficult to have a new narrative in many cases of competition. Therefore, I personally will focus more on the first chain of western institutions. From the once downtime chain to the shadow of separation, it is undoubtedly the ability of western institutions to win people's hearts and minds. The airdrop craze has also performed well. As a high-performance public chain, the narrative of western institutions is closely tied to it. Although there have been many people arguing about the value of new bottles of old wine recently, it does not prevent various forces and other head institutions, such as Soho, from building a narrative. Officials also support that the valuation and imagination of one of the narrative main lines that can bear the bubble in the next bull market will be turned on. The American mobile rendering giant shell business and the sexiest department will be ready to rely on the good dad application. The reason why Layer Qiaosi keeps putting it in such a high position is not only because it is currently in the forefront, but also my personal view on development. The ecological foundation has indeed made great efforts in investment incubation and can feel that it does have its own logic and taste. If you look at the supported projects, you will find that they are not dominated by technology and high performance, but skillfully use the decentralized and low characteristics of blockchain to make many interesting attempts. Some of the spinach games that have been invested and hatched, and then the spinach battle games that have been invested can compete with the platform products of the head creators, all of which are very brilliant applications. Although the team emphasizes the decentralization of the chain and the separation from the business, some things are not understood. As the only compliance exchange in a beautiful country, it is natural to say that the financial owners behind many applications of the platform are also top-notch, so next year's development is also worthy of attention. Although it seems that Pinduoduo is simple, rude, effective and rich. However, personally, I still have a positive attitude. Although the top institutions and founders are dubbed dealers, the huge amount has provided a good foundation for the follow-up development. The analysis written before highlighted that there will be brave men under the reward of its large airdrop incentive development. Everyone will not worry that there will be no local dogs to rush, and Tieshun explained that it will be used to build a better ecology and may migrate. Therefore, we can also look forward to the emergence of Xiaoyangchun in the world. There are some more interesting infrastructure projects here, which will not be repeated here. Some local hot spots narrated by supermom are experienced and can play. Investors estimate that those who are good at focusing on liquidity, the same building blocks for dealers, and the technical flow system will force many people to pay close attention to issuing coins, but issuing coins is also a delaying tactic. If there is no ecology and application, it can only become an empty city that is going to decline. For several games, the public chain is my favorite king of the last round of bull market, and it has been stolen from the cross-chain bridge, but the team is very resilient and not only has rich blood. Recently, the little star has made quite good achievements, and the performance of currency price is also commendable. If we jump out of the chain to summarize several trends of the bull market, we can find that the new asset issuance method brings speculative frenzy at low cost and high odds. Too many people have said that it is essentially similar to this kind of probability. The lottery on the spinach chain is scratched at a very low cost, which attracts a lot of gamblers to use the plunge speculation, which is an important driving force for the development of the industry. The dopamine pleasure brought by high odds is synonymous with the bull market, so the project. Fang should think more about this kind of gameplay when designing and operating it. It is the pearl of the bull market. From the first half of this year to Harry Potter, from Silly Dragon to Second-hand Honda, there will be a phenomenal birth every once in a while. It is very important and necessary to have a deep understanding of culture. The encryption spirit was born out of rebellion against tradition. Minority geeks are a kind of cyber aesthetics, not a natural product without owners. On the contrary, the combination of capital manipulation and community sentiment is the overflow of market liquidity and emotion. Creating a huge myth of making wealth is also one of the important means to attract foreign capital and attention into cryptocurrency. The rational essence of playing is to play with an impressive narrative. The first thing more important than this is to keep the application behind the game, but it is not necessarily the good application of this bull market. In fact, it is all a shell, but personally, it is not a copy of the brilliant god of the last bull market. The new article also opposes the threshold of excessive financial application dolls, which are high in interest and low in possibility, and may not be a good choice. The application drives supporting solutions. The development of the application layer makes more wallet solutions developed, and the wallet market structure will also change greatly. The full-chain game engine behind the track also belongs to this kind of possibility. The users have no particularly deep impression and understanding of it, and the related infrastructure also has a very large imagination space. Although the germination of the mobile terminal is still very early, it has achieved some success. Looking at it, it is just the user's need to take it out of his pocket. Although the competition is fierce, it is undoubtedly a huge cake. Finally, it can be said that it is a simple summary of the ecology of this round of bull market. 比特币今日价格行情网_okx交易所app_永续合约_比特币怎么买卖交易_虚拟币交易所平台

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