TRB 「过山车」始末:巨鲸控盘、团队出货、过度杠杆

币圈资讯 阅读:45 2024-04-22 11:03:04 评论:0
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2024年刚开始,预言机赛道的老项目Tellor Tributes 代币TRB完成了一次“过山车”表演。

12月31日,3个多月内从11美元附近一路上行至268美元的TRB并没有刹车,而是在接下来的6小时内登顶590美元附近。更令人诧异的一幕接踵而至,同样是6小时内,TRB暴跌至149美元附近。

12个小时,暴涨暴跌,Logo形似”圆月弯刀“的TRB 制造了加密资产市场新年第一个“多空双爆”惨案,全网合约爆仓金额为7310万美元,做多做空投资者都愤怒了,他们被这个“妖币”戏耍了。

市场上一个已存在的声音终于被听见:最大供应量为2586819 的TRB已被控盘。链上分析工具Spot On Chain 此前统计,“在流通的250万TRB中,大约有170万在交易所,而20只鲸鱼持有66万。”

一些地址吸筹的行为正发生在TRB 起涨的2023年8月,当时,加密资产投资及服务机构了得资本(LD Capital)曾在报告中提到TRB的链上建仓行为。或因如此,有投资者将控盘者指向了LD,引得该机构合伙人楼霁月以公开“悬赏1000万美元寻证据”的方式出面澄清。

此后,有链上分析师指出,1月1日 TRB暴跌前,Tellor Tributes团队将4211 TRB存入了中心化交易所Coinbase。而链上数据显示,2天前,该团队已将7000 TRB转入Coinbase,那时正是TRB 持续上涨阶段。

在缺乏流动性的TRB市场中,过度杠杆化的交易头寸也为TRB的暴涨暴跌起到了推波助澜的作用。有交易者观察,TRB每日的合约交易额在5亿美元以上,“赌鬼非常多。”

巨鲸控盘、团队出货、过度杠杆,无人节制的“妖币”TRB就这样完成了新年第一割。

多空双爆 「圆月弯刀」12小时回旋收割 

新年前一天晚上的9:25分,已经在4个月内持续上涨的TRB,从268.88美元攀升,到了第二天早上6:15分,它已经涨至593.09美元,涨幅达到120.5%。

正当TRB成功吸引市场注意后,在接下来的1小时后,TRB断崖式下跌,6小时内跌至低点143.69美元,距高点跌幅312.75%。

短时内的剧烈波动直接造成了合约市场的“多空双爆”。数据显示,1月1日早8点前的24小时内,TRB期货合约爆仓金额为7310万美元,其中空单爆仓4449万美元,多单爆仓2861万美元。

24小时TRB期货合约爆仓7310万美元

除了发生在中心化交易所内的爆仓外,去中心化的DeFi应用也未能幸免。

1月1日,去中心化合成资产发行协议Synthetix (SNX) 创始人@kain.eth在X平台表示,由于TRB异常波动,SNX质押者损失了约200万美元。

@kain.eth解释,TRB在Synthetix原本存在上限25万美元的未平仓合约限制,但随着其价格在过去几个月的上涨,这一上限已膨胀至1250万美元,本应被下调,但风险控制不严。“今天TRB价格飙升,几个空头仓位被开设,但由于现货价格和合约价格错位,套利平衡失灵,这对于Synthetix而言是一次教训。”

TRB的价格异常还出现在交易所的报价上。1月1日10时许,OKX上的TRB/USDT价格报233.24美元,而币安 TRB/USDT的报价为170.74美元,价差达36.6%。

其实,这个Logo宛如“圆月弯刀”的TRB早在2019年就出现了,它是去中心化预言机协议Tellor Tributes的原生代币,总供应量为258.6819万,目前的流通量为255.3723万,几乎全流通。

加密资产市场第三方数据平台CoinGecko显示,2019年10月初,TRB进入二级市场,价格最初只有0.8美元,曾在2021年的加密牛市期间攀高至146.14美元,并在4天后跌破100美元。此后的1年里,TRB价格一直在2位数震荡。

TRB价格平静近2年,突然从2023年8月异动‍‍

2023年开始,TRB保持在8-10美元之间,直到9月16日,TRB在不到1个月时间从10美元左右冲上40多美元,翻了数倍,9月底在一些交易所甚至超过60美元。修复半个月后,又从10月13日的46美元附近继续上行,到达11月初139.92美元的阶段性高点,最终在年底冲高又瀑布,“血洗”合约市场。

这样一个2019年就产生且半死不活将近2年的项目,突然在去年9月起死回生,一路震荡上行,到了年底转身变成多空双爆的“杀手”。事出反常必有妖。

埋伏4个月  巨鲸吸筹控盘

“妖币”释放妖气后,巨鲸控盘的局面逐渐清晰起来。

事实上,在12月29日,当TRB上涨至225美元时,链上数据分析工具Spot On Chain就发布了提醒消息,“在流通的250万$TRB中,大约有170万在交易所,而20只鲸鱼持有66万。”

Spot On Chain分析数据后还表示,持筹鲸鱼在8月和9月以15美元的有利价格积累了TRB,从那时起,该代币的价格增长了15倍,总共赚取了1.2亿美元(实现盈利4,000万美元,未实现的盈利8,000万美元)。在过去的两个月里,鲸鱼们慢慢地将他们的代币存入交易所,形成了一个拉高抛售的循环来清算他们所持的代币。

经历过2017年的加密资产玩家人竟皆知,当筹码过度集中在某个或某几个人手中时,代币就成了庄家操控价格的工具。

Spot On Chain当时提示,由于大部分代币仍在鲸鱼手中,他们控制了游戏。价格可能会经历大幅上涨以清除空头头寸和硬抛售以清算其持有的资产。

Spot On Chain的提示最终一语成谶,新年刚开始的6个小时,TRB就跳水了。

那么,操控TRB筹码的这些鲸鱼到底是谁?

很遗憾,尽管区块链地址的公开性可以让任何人看到资产的流动方向,但区块链匿名性的特点并无法让外界得知具体的持有者身份。

有人将操盘者指向了一家加密资产投资服务商。社交媒体上,一些人指责起华人币圈很多人都熟悉的了得资本(LD Capital)。

对此,了得资本合伙人楼霁月在X上等多个社交渠道回应,“实名找到任何的币安账号KYC信息和LD/我本人/和我们任何关联方有关的、交易成本和这一波TRB价格波动有关的信息的,悬赏1000万美元;否则的话,传播该信息超过3000阅读量的内容,保留追究相关法律责任的权利。”

指控了得资本的原因可能是该机构去年8月28日发布的一份有关TRB资金分析的报告。事实上,了得资本当时就在报告中提到了一些地址吸筹TRB的情况。

该报告显示,8月21日观察到链上有较大波动,是今年1月以来最高水平,远大于前期的数据。同时,价格没有发生较大的波动,徘徊在10美元附近,“我们认为此时可能有人在链上建仓。”

没有地址与身份的对应,这份报告并不能成为指控了得资本控盘的证明,但报告倒是佐证了TRB巨鲸的确在低点吸筹。

吸筹鲸鱼不确定,而在高点抛售的人倒是被抓了现行。

1月1日,链上分析工具 Lookonchain 根据跟踪数据称,与 Tellor Tributes开发团队相关的一个钱包地址,在TRB价格暴涨后将4211个TRB转入了交易所Coinbase。按照当时的价格,这些TRB价值 240 万美元。

Tellor 团队相关地址多次转移TRB至Coinbase‍‍‍‍‍‍‍‍‍‍‍‍‍‍

根据链上数据,这个开头为0x1B8的地址在12月这一个月内,曾向Coinbase 转入12735 TRB,还曾通过Tellor的多重签名收到了20000 TRB。

据此,不排除Tellor Tributes团队在TRB的高点中获利。

而分析人士@Riyad_carey 指出,Tellor Tributes团队是在价格暴跌前几个小时将TRB存入Coinbase的,但币安上的抛售比Coinbase早了大约2分钟。但在Tellor Tributes团队第二次将TRB充入Coinbase后,市场出现了35万美元的抛售,导致TRB价格从500美元跌至400美元。他就此认为,Tellor Tributes团队不排除清筹,但真正严重操纵价格的鲸鱼藏在币安。

这一分析也与Spot On Chain追踪的数据不谋而合,该工具建立的巨鲸地址提示集合数据显示,从9月起,吸筹鲸鱼钱包内的TRB多数流向了全球最大的加密资产交易所币安。

而根据链上数据显示,哪怕在今天(1月5日),币安的一个地址在TRB的持有者中仍排在第一位,共计77.16万TRB,占据总供应量的29.82%;持有量第二大的交易所是OKX,共计18.97万TRB,占比7.2%。

此外,前十名非交易所的巨鲸地址内TRB占总供应量的24.85%,约为64.29万,筹码依然集中。

过度杠杆  「赌场」无人生还

受TRB暴涨暴跌影响的投资者,不仅在怒骂躲在暗处控盘的巨鲸,也对交易所们放任巨鲸屠戮投资者的行为表示了不满,一些用户呼吁币安、Coinbase、OKX等交易所下架这个“单机币”。

事件发生后,币安倒是采取了临时措施,暂停了TRB的提币服务。但截至发稿时,尚未有交易所下架TRB。

7000多万的爆仓金额的确让不少人损失惨重,而市场上过度的杠杆交易行为,事实上也对TRB的暴涨暴跌起到了推波助澜的作用。

早在8月了得资本发现TRB存在链上吸筹行为时就同步发现,TRB的合约成交量和持仓量也在那时出现上涨。仅8月26日上午,TRB24小时合约成交量增长了151%,合约持仓量增长了93%。“大账户持仓处于做多状态,而账户多空比为0.96,表明有大量散户做空。”

了得资本8月26日记录的TRB合约市场数据

当时,TRB无论是成交量还在3050万美元,持仓量为1280万美元。到了8月28日,仅2天后,TRB的合约成交量和持仓量速增,“最近24小时,其合约交易量为16亿美元,持仓量约为6800万美元。”

8月正是鲸鱼开始吸筹的阶段, TRB价格的上涨也开始吸引了期货合约的交易者入场,TRB合约市场的持仓量也正是从8月开始。

2023年TRB合约持仓量变化和10月起的爆仓数据

按照常理判断,没有一种币会持续不断地上涨。但TRB并不管常理,进入10月后,“空军”成为了TRB上涨阶段的爆仓常客。到了10月26日,总市值2.5亿美元的TRB,在合约市场已经出现了3.55亿美元的持仓量,资金费率为-1.38%。

在持续的空单爆仓发生后,一些交易者已经嗅到了危机,放弃了对TRB的交易,而仍有一些人不信邪,总想在高点吃一波做空利润,但屡战屡败。

12月29日,在TRB还未向500美元冲击时,曾经做空过该代币的币安用户Myth回忆,他曾在35美元附近做空TRB,幸运地吃过一波大回调,但在继续尝试波段做空后,利润回撤了近80%,此后放弃了该标的。

他猜测,持币大庄通过操控币价不断拉砸,然后利用合约杠杆进行牟利。“如果你还在玩合约,最好远离这个币,现在这个代币每天合约交易额5亿U以上,只能说赌鬼真的非常多。”

2天后,TRB在6小时内冲高又在6小时内跳水,多空双爆,合约市场一派无人生还的景象。

回头看去,供应量只有258万的TRB,已经近乎全流通,在价格本身不高的市场情况下,这类加密资产很容易被人低价吸筹。当庄家手中的筹码越来越多时,他们就几乎掌握K线的画线权,而合约市场的“闭眼玩家”只能任其宰割。

“妖币”TRB存在且释放妖气后还能继续存在,再次证明了加密资产市场对于投资者保护的匮乏。在这样的环境下,投资者保护自己的方式只有一个,睁大双眼,远离那些缺乏流动性的市场标的。


At the beginning of 2008, the old project token of predicting the machine track completed a roller coaster performance. In more than a month, it went all the way from the US dollar to the US dollar without braking, but climbed to the top of the US dollar in the next hour. A more surprising scene followed, which also plunged to the US dollar in the next hour. It was like a full moon machete. It created an encrypted asset market. The first long and short double explosion tragedy in the New Year, the whole network contract exploded for 10,000 US dollars, and investors were angry. A demon coin played an existing voice in the market and was finally heard. The analysis tool on the chain with the largest supply was previously counted. According to statistics, among the ten thousand in circulation, about ten thousand were on the exchange, while a whale held ten thousand addresses to attract funds. The behavior was taking place in the rising year. At that time, the crypto asset investment and service institution Capital had built positions on the chain mentioned in the report, or because of this, some investors pointed the controller to Lou Jiyue, a partner of the institution, to publicly offer a reward of ten thousand dollars to find evidence. After that, some analysts in the chain pointed out that the team would be deposited in the centralized exchange before the plunge on March, and the data in the chain showed that the team had been transferred to the centralized exchange days ago. At that time, it was in the continuous rising stage, and the over-leveraged trading positions in the illiquid market also contributed to the surge and plunge. Some traders observed that the daily contract transaction volume was more than 100 million US dollars, and there were many gamblers. The whale control panel team shipped over-leveraged and uncontrolled demon coins, thus completing the first cut of the New Year. Long-short, double-explosion, full-moon machete hour revolving harvest The score of the night before the New Year has been rising continuously from USD within months to the next morning, and it has risen to USD, which has successfully attracted the market's attention, and then it has fallen to a low point within the next hour in a cliff-like manner. The sharp fluctuation of USD's decline from the high point in a short time has directly caused the long-short and double-explosion data of the contract market. It shows that the amount of futures contracts exploded in the hours before the morning of January is USD 10,000, of which the empty orders exploded beautifully. In addition to the explosion in the centralized exchange, the decentralized application has not been spared. The founder of the decentralized synthetic asset issuance agreement said on the platform that due to abnormal fluctuations, the pledgee lost about $10,000, explaining that there was an open contract limit of $10,000, but with its price rising in the past few months, the upper limit has expanded to $10,000, but the risk control is not strict. Today, the price soared several times. Short positions were opened, but because of the dislocation of spot price and contract price, the arbitrage balance failed, which is a lesson for me. The price anomaly also appeared in the exchange's quotation, which was quoted in US dollars on the day of last month, while the price difference of currency security reached US dollars. In fact, this is like a full moon machete, which appeared as early as 2000. It is the original token of decentralized Oracle agreement. The total supply is 10,000, and the current circulation is almost 10,000. The third-party data platform shows that it entered the second level at the beginning of June. At first, only the US dollar climbed to the US dollar during the encrypted bull market in, and fell below the US dollar a few days later. Since then, the price has been fluctuating in the digits. In recent years, the price has suddenly remained between the US dollars since the year of the month, until March, when it rushed from the US dollar to more than US dollars in less than a month. At the end of the month, some exchanges even surpassed the US dollar to repair it for half a month, and then it continued to rise from the vicinity of the US dollar on March to the stage high of the US dollar at the beginning of the month. Finally, at the end of the year, it surged and fell into a The contract washing market came into being in such a year, and the projects in recent years suddenly came back to life and oscillated all the way up last month. By the end of the year, they turned into long-short and double-explosive killers. If something goes wrong, there must be a demon ambush. After the monster currency was released, the situation of the giant whale controlling the market gradually became clear. In fact, when it rose to US dollars, the online data analysis tool issued a reminder message. About 10,000 of the 10,000 in circulation were on the exchange, but only whales held the analysis data. Raising whales accumulated at a favorable price of US dollars in February and October. Since then, the price of the token has doubled, earning a total of US$ 100 million, achieving a profit of US$ 10,000 and an unrealized profit of US$ 10,000. In the past two months, whales have slowly deposited their tokens in the exchange, forming a cycle of pulling up and selling to liquidate the tokens they hold. It is well known to players that when chips are excessively concentrated in the hands of one or a few people, money has become a tool for dealers to manipulate prices. As most of the tokens are still in the hands of whales, they control the price of the game and may go through a sharp rise to clear short positions and hard sell to liquidate the assets they hold. Finally, the tip is in one word. The whales who control the chips dive in the first hour of the new year. It is a pity that although the openness of the blockchain address can let anyone see the flow direction of the assets, the anonymity of the blockchain cannot let the outside world know the specific identity of the holders. Someone will trade. The writer pointed to a crypto asset investment service provider. Some people on social media accused the Chinese currency circle of gaining capital, which many people are familiar with. Lou Jiyue, a capital partner, responded to his real name in a number of superior social channels and offered a reward of $10,000 for finding any information about the currency security account number and the transaction cost related to me and any of our related parties and this wave of price fluctuations. Otherwise, he reserved the right to pursue relevant legal responsibilities for spreading the information that exceeded the reading volume. The reason may be that the agency released a report on capital analysis on March last year. In fact, Capital mentioned some situations of address financing in the report at that time. The report showed that there was a big fluctuation in the chain on March, which was the highest level since last month, and the price did not fluctuate greatly around the US dollar. We think that at this time, someone may build positions in the chain without the correspondence between address and identity. This report cannot be accused of capital control. It is proved, but the report does prove that the whale does attract whales at a low point, but the person who sells them at a high point is caught. According to the tracking data, a wallet address related to the development team was transferred to the exchange after the price soared. According to the current price, these team-related addresses with a value of 10,000 US dollars were transferred several times to the address starting with the data on the chain, and multiple signatures were received within the month of January. According to this, it is not excluded that the team will make a profit at a high point, but analysts pointed out that the team will deposit the money several hours before the price plummeted. 比特币今日价格行情网_okx交易所app_永续合约_比特币怎么买卖交易_虚拟币交易所平台

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