宏观与微观视角 为什么这轮牛市可能没有山寨季？

Will there be a fake season in this bull market? My idea may be different from that of most people. I think there is probably no fake season. I will talk about my views from the macro and micro levels respectively. Before that, I will share with you some superficial knowledge of the macroeconomic cycle for you to better understand. If you think that the macro economy is empty and it is not helpful for you to make money in the currency circle, you can skip the following: the macro level of threads. We will experience one round on average every year. The complete cycle of Campo is from recovery to prosperity, from prosperity to recession, from recession to depression, and finally from depression to the recovery of the next cycle. Every technological innovation that changes human destiny has promoted the birth and development of a new cycle. We are currently in the depression stage of the fifth cycle of Campo, because the technological innovation that promoted this cycle has stopped. The technological innovation of this cycle is the Internet. Look at the current mourning and compare the effect of making wealth years ago. If you are familiar with it, There must be a personal feeling of how big this gap is. The global economy is stagnant. More importantly, in order to cope with the financial crisis that occurred in the previous recession, this round is the financial crisis of 2000. All governments have to start the crazy printing mode. COVID-19 has seriously aggravated this action, saving the economy in the short term, but at the same time creating the time bomb of inflation. In order to remove this bomb, all governments have to raise interest rates and lock the watch in reverse. Together, these two things have created the nuclear of the depression stage. The heart characteristic is that stagflation is far more terrible for ordinary people than inflation or deflation. You can ask your friends who are engaged in non-industry around you how they have been in recent years, and sum up in one sentence what Compaq does, what loses money, and what costs are high. No matter who is the boss or the employee, life is hard. Many people will be sure to wonder what this has to do with the currency circle. In fact, it has a lot to do with it. From the beginning of the year, the currency circle has been gradually accepted by the traditional world to the recent spot pass. If you have a comparison with the market, A more sensitive perception will find that the banker's trading methods before the year are completely different from those after the year. In fact, the old money has gradually entered the currency circle and replaced the indigenous banker in the original currency circle. The old money and all aspects of the economy are deeply involved. If there is no money in the whole traditional financial market, the currency circle will certainly dry up, and during the recession, because the ultra-high interest rate will lead to the hot money changing from the risk market to the risk-free bond market currency circle, which is the reason for these two years in the risk market. Just here, when will this round of Campo Shaw come to an end? We can find the law from history. When the interest rate is increased to the point where the economy is on the verge of collapse and the unemployment rate is soaring, the recession will come to an end. Many people expect the Fed to cut interest rates soon and fantasize that Bitcoin will not rise to US$ 10,000 when the interest rate is cut. But I think this view is too optimistic, not that I don't think Bitcoin will, but that the interest rate cut is probably not as fast as I thought. The former unemployment rate in the United States, the key indicator to judge whether the depression is coming to an end, is still at a historical low. See the figure below. Simply put, despite the high interest rate, everyone's life is still full of flavor, so the Fed will have more confidence to further control inflation. The real interest rate cut is forced because the economy can't bear it. Now, the economy is quite resistant, so I estimate that this round of high interest rate era is likely to last for a long time. The current interest rate has already occurred with the financial crisis in 2008. See the picture below, and the longer the high interest rate lasts, the greater the probability that it will crush the global economy at a certain moment. As long as the high interest rate lasts, the hot money in the market will be less and less, and without new funds entering the market, it will only maintain a zero-sum or even negative-sum game, so it will be difficult for the funds in the market to flow into the higher-risk cottage currency on a large scale. In the past, every round of bull market was probably based on this law to innovate technology and open new ones. The value of the wealth effect in the early narrative, the first wave of bubble technology, is much lower than expected. The narrative collapse, the oversold market, the bottoming out, and the search for reasonable value. Most of the projects have gone to zero, but at the same time, several real value-creating leaders have emerged. The second wave of value may be a bit abstract. We cite two examples to open the programmable era of blockchain, which is equivalent to turning blockchain from Nokia to smart phone. This is a subversive innovation technology, and at the same time, standards enable everyone to issue assets, bringing early wealth. The rich effect of various public chains is the first wave of the bubble. Later, everyone found that the air currency is really just the air market's expectation of the programmable blockchain is too high. The reality is that it can only create the air currency narrative collapse. At the end of the bear market, the market oversold and bottomed out. Most of the public chain projects came out to zero, and the second wave, which belongs to the programmable blockchain until now, only recognized the valuable public chain and created a subversive mechanism to make the liquidation on the chain possible. It is the foundation of decentralized finance. If the chain can't be liquidated, there is no way to talk about the wealth effect from to, which pushed up the bubble and brought the first wave. Then the zoo narrative collapsed. After the big wave of sand scouring, most of the projects in that year have been zero, and a few valuable bibcock have been continued to this day. From the perspective of leeks, the first wave is the easiest to get rich, and you don't need to understand anything. As long as you get the right narrative track, the second wave will make money. Only those who have the ability to surpass most people in the market can make money. Not only to the track, but also to the leader. From the point of view of the project, the first wave is also the easiest to get rich. The valuation of 10 billion yuan is not a dream, but it is necessary not to do anything. The concept of speculation is the most important. The difficulty of making money in the second wave is also exponentially increasing. The business model of the track can only survive if it is self-hematopoietic and competitive products can win. In this law, the first wave of each new narrative is driven by bubbles, from the small-scale wealth effect in the circle to the large-scale wealth effect in the circle, and finally it successfully attracts the circle. It is these new funds that promote the bull market's main surge, and finally it is because the new funds run out that the bull market has peaked and collapsed. Now come back and look at this bull market as if it was not caused by some innovative technology, so as to attract new leeks from outside the circle to promote the bull market's main surge. What drives this bull market's main surge is that a large number of old Qian Xin leeks have indeed been allowed to enter the market, but the key point is that they can only make money by buying dollars, just like you buy the Shanghai and Shenzhen index fund, your money fund will only help you buy that stock, but you can't buy it through this fund. 比特币今日价格行情网_okx交易所app_永续合约_比特币怎么买卖交易_虚拟币交易所平台

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