LD Capital宏观周报：股币双牛、新的宽松 超过97%的比特币盈利

Ten spot bitcoins can be said to be one of the most successful financial products in history. Last week, the transaction volume and capital inflow reached new highs, and the total net inflow reached $ billion. In just seven weeks, BlackRock reached the asset mark of $ billion, which was the fastest speed to reach this figure and exceeded the largest silver month. It can be seen that if the reason for the increase in bond market yield is positive factors, strong economic growth rather than the Fed's interest rate hike, the stock market will perform well in this environment, despite the increase in interest rates. The monthly standard Pratt & Whitney Index rose around, and the global stock market also hit a record high. Many major global stock indexes hit a record high, including German, French and Japanese chip stocks, which rose sharply and rose again. The logic of Broadcom and chip stocks is still closer to the upstream of the industrial chain, and the more they rose. As for downstream software companies, especially big technology companies, for example, Google fell in the past month, Apple fell, Microsoft rose, and crude oil prices rose slightly, close to the US dollar. The US dollar index rose first and then fell, which basically leveled bitcoin. There are three main reasons why the global stock market can stand firm and rise when the short-term and long-term interest rates rise again. The prospect of strong corporate earnings performance in the fourth quarter has stimulated people's new enthusiasm for artificial intelligence. Strong economic growth Macro Weekly, stocks, currencies, bulls, new loose bitcoin profits, weak US economic data released on Friday and speeches by Fed directors have made the market currency. Loose expectations are heating up, and the yield of US bonds is diving obviously. The monthly manufacturing index of the United States unexpectedly fell to a seven-month low, shrinking new orders for consecutive months, and shrinking employment. Federal Reserve Governor Waller, the next popular candidate of the Federal Reserve Chairman, hinted that the reverse operation twist would be implemented, that is, the Fed should buy short and sell long on its balance sheet. He also hoped to see the institutions in the Fed's positions fall to zero, and the proportion of short-term debts in the table would increase. Waller's speech hinted that he hoped to reduce the yield of short-term debts, that is, the interest rate closer to the money market would be Reducing the signal belonging to a pigeon faction can also alleviate the upside-down range of the yield curve to some extent. Before the global financial crisis, about one third of the portfolio was short-term treasury bonds, and now the scale of short-term treasury bonds is less than the holdings of treasury bonds. At the same day's event, Dallas Fed President Lori Logan once again stressed that with the decrease of bank reserves, the Fed may start to slow down its contraction, and the US debt and gold rose sharply, and the US stock index reached a record high. As for whether the recent rise is overheated or not, the history shows that the market. The market has not yet entered an overheated state, but the rate of increase may slow down, and the volatility may increase. Compared with the previous bull market, the previous month's increase of the current bull market is lower than the average level. This statistic is not applicable in the currency circle. In the future, if the Fed's policy is gradually relaxed, monetary policy will be conducive to economic expansion and promote the further rise of risky assets. In its comments last week, Bank of America wrote that the Fed's interest rate cut is stimulating animal spirits and promoting the development of risky assets. However, the stock market will not rise forever when investors' mood is too high. When optimistic, the market tends to become more volatile. At present, although investor sentiment has turned optimistic, it has not yet reached an extreme level. Investors should maintain reasonable expectations for returns and volatility. Historically, there will be an average of three callbacks and one correction every year. Ten spot bitcoins can be said to be one of the most successful financial products in history. Last week, the transaction volume and capital inflow both reached new highs, and the total net inflow reached US$ 100 million. BlackRock's asset mark reached US$ 100 million in just seven weeks. The fastest speed and scale exceeded that of the largest silver macro weekly, and the new loose-exceeded bitcoin profit appeared for the first time in seven trading days on Friday, mainly because of the sharp outflow of nearly 100 million US dollars for two consecutive days, which led to market speculation that the main reason behind the sell-off may be that the loan institution repaid the loan and was approved by the bankruptcy court to sell 10,000 shares, which was worth 100 million US dollars at that time, but now it is about 100 million US dollars, but the capital outflow in the past two weeks has been small until Thursday. At present, it seems that most of this selling pressure has been digested. At present, we can expect large institutions to surrender one after another. The chief investment officer said that the current demand mainly comes from retail investors, hedge funds and independent financial advisers. He predicted that the demand for spot bitcoin will further increase as larger American securities firms begin to participate, because some of the largest banks in the United States include Bank of America, Wells Fargo, Goldman Sachs and JPMorgan Chase, but these banks have not yet provided customers with macro weekly reports. At present, it is not clear whether the excitement surrounding bitcoin is sucking up gold funds, but there does seem to be some disconnect between the price trend of gold and the investment level. This disconnect has been going on for more than years. Historically, gold prices and gold-backed holdings have been trading synchronously, but since 2000, the two have been decoupled. As shown below, this may be caused by many factors, including changes in investor sentiment, monetary policy, portfolio balance, currency fluctuations and so on. For investors with long investment cycle or high risk appetite, Bitcoin is the best choice, and its volatility is about eight times that of similar gold. The daily standard deviation of precious metals is zero, while the driving factor of gold price seems to have changed in recent months. For decades, gold has been inversely related to the real interest rate, while the yield has decreased, and vice versa. However, this model has been broken since the outbreak of the epidemic in. The highly negative correlation coefficient, however, has turned positive since then, and the two assets are now often moving in the same direction. At present, it is generally believed that the central bank's purchase activities are the new driving force of gold. Since 2000, financial institutions, mainly those in emerging economies, have been net buyers of metals to support their own currencies and realize dollarization. Edward Snowden shared his prediction last week that the national government will be found to secretly buy bitcoin, which he called a modern substitute for gold. At present, only the Salvadoran government has taken the initiative to buy bitcoin, which is currently held in its national treasury. At present, it may be more profitable than the purchase cost. According to statistics, the bitcoin address that is currently exceeded has achieved the highest profit level since June. Last time we observed such a large proportion of profitable address, the price of bitcoin was close to the all-time high, but it is obviously meaningless to look at it this way. At the end of each bull market, because the price often far exceeds the peak profit ratio of the last round, we should pay more attention to the change of the profit ratio at the beginning of each bull market. 比特币今日价格行情网_okx交易所app_永续合约_比特币怎么买卖交易_虚拟币交易所平台

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