Mint Ventures：备战牛市主升浪 我对本轮周期的阶段性思考

The introduction of the author's research partner completed the touch of the historical high point of dollar pricing last week, which means that we have entered the formal stage of this bull market. Compared with the rebound from the bottom of the bear market, the mood in the formal stage of the bull market will further heat up and fluctuate more violently. Every formal stage of the bull market has some common characteristics, such as the gradual transition from the leading situation to the cottage currency leading the rise, the decline in bitcoin market share, and the increase in various currencies is more violent, becoming social media and search quotes. The darling of the engine, the public's attention is increasing rapidly. In this paper, the author tries to logically deduce the possible differences between the current cycle and the past cycle, and puts forward his own thinking and coping strategies. This paper is the author's phased thinking as of the time of publication, which may change in the future, and the viewpoint is extremely subjective, and there may be errors in the reasoning logic of factual data. Please do not use it as an investment reference. Welcome the criticism and discussion of peers. The following are the driving factors for encrypting the bull market and the driving factors for the bull market on the track. After the market value of Su Shi has reached a certain volume, it is recalled that the bull market in the past cycle was jointly driven by many factors, including the expectation of halving the supply and demand adjustment. This round of halving will be loose or loose in January. It is expected that the market has reached a consensus on the high interest rate level in the past and has high expectations for the beginning of the next quarter. The loosening of regulatory policies is reflected in the updating of American accounting standards, encrypted assets can be reflected in the financial statements of listed companies at fair value and The loss of gray scale has led to the innovation of new asset models and business models. This round of bull market has already had the previous points in the above points. At the same time, the fastest increase in each bull market cycle is the new species that were born or broke out for the first time in this round. For example, the most popular bull market in the year is the platform smart contract, the public chain is equal, and the most common bull market in the year is the meta-universe and the asset year is the first year, and the first year is the sum year. However, the development of this round of bull market has not yet appeared. The smart contract platform of market cycle and the new asset model or business model with similar weight. At present, the product form and narrative of both new and old projects have not evolved much compared with the last round. More importantly, they are all old concepts, and the relatively new species appearing in this round are mainly two ecological inscriptions represented by node monkeys and the main two-tier projects, including the distributed computing projects that existed in the last cycle. This round of projects, such as, but not strictly speaking, the original track of the currency circle, are more the result of the penetration of the craze opened in 2000 into the encryption industry, which can barely be regarded as a new species in this cycle. The deduction and strategy of this round of bull market may be misjudged. In many bull market portfolio recommendations that I have seen, the track's counterfeit coins will be put into the asset pool. The main reason is that they can outperform greatly as encrypted assets with smaller market value and greater flexibility after the formal stage of the bull market. However, as the author mentioned earlier, the biggest increase in every bull market cycle is the new species born or first erupted in this cycle. As a track that has experienced the second cycle, don't expect them to reproduce the price performance of the first cycle because an asset class can enjoy a huge valuation bubble only in the first cycle, because a new business model or asset class appears in the first bull market. The main challenge is to be falsified, which is difficult in the frenzy of the bull market, while the same track project faces the challenge of proving in the second round of bull market, that is, to prove that its business ceiling is still high, and there is still a lot of room for imagination, which is also difficult because it is not easy for people to believe the stories they have told again. Some people may say that the track is the most beautiful in the last round of bull market in 2000 and 2000. Isn't this a counterexample? Isn't it true that the market demand of the track in the bull market in 2008 was exponentially explosive, and the explosion of multiple product categories caused the rapid increase of the bilateral market scale between users and developers, creating an unprecedented demand for block space, which not only pushed up the valuation of Ethereum, but also caused its explosion. The bull market in 2008 was the real first year for us, and can this cycle reproduce the purpose of further increasing the demand brought about by the last round of product category and asset category explosion? I still can't see it before, so the premise that we can achieve the last round of gains in this round is gone. The expectations of this round of bull market for us should also be lowered and this round has better odds. At present, the biggest driving force of this round of bull market is still the capital inflow brought by the opening of the channel and the optimistic expectation for this long-term inflow. Therefore, the first beneficiary of this round is mainly the combination of the potential listing targets, and it is more difficult for this round of bull market to blog. The return-risk ratio will be better than that of the previous round, so which is the better choice as the same benefit? In my opinion, in the short term, it may be because the expectation has been digested in the existing price, and there is no other hot spot for the time being after the monthly halving is completed. For me, the exchange rate is still at a low level, and the expectation is gradually heating up, which makes the short-term odds better than the long-term allocation choice. Generally speaking, it is now more and more like a technology stock, and its value is similar to providing block space services. A cloud service project is fiercely competitive in this market. It is constantly eroded and squeezed by other block space service providers, projects and various new technical solutions in narrative and market share. Once the technical route of Ethereum is wrong or the product iteration speed is too slow, these will be the reasons for the funds to vote against it. On the contrary, the positioning of electronic gold is becoming more and more stable with the steady expansion of market value and the opening of channels, and its consensus as a value reserve asset against the inflation of French currency is gradually being taken. From financial institutions, listed companies to small countries, the argument that the value of value storage can be surpassed has been increasingly ignored. Although I think that this round of over-allocation will have a better profit-risk ratio than the last round, this does not mean that we don't need to allocate other things, but we need to carefully consider the strategies we are considering when planning the ratio. Generally speaking, the author is now considering the following strategies: to control the allocation ratio on the sum, and to control the allocation ratio on the old track. This round of new tracks can be used as the choice direction of Bo, such as the best speculative media. Every round will have a concept renovation. 比特币今日价格行情网_okx交易所app_永续合约_比特币怎么买卖交易_虚拟币交易所平台

注册有任何问题请添加 微信：MVIP619 拉你进入群

文章转载注明 网址：https://netpsp.com/?id=60050