关于“百倍币”的投资教训

币圈资讯 阅读:33 2024-04-22 07:28:23 评论:0
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作者:道说区块链

在4月2日《Base链Degen的千倍成长之路》一文的留言区,有一些读者留言问能不能推荐几个潜力币。

对这个期望我在上次的推特交流中明确回复过听众:除了比特币和以太坊,我从来不推荐任何币。

我说过自己定投的币,也说过自己买的币,但我分享出来的目的是想和大家分享我买这些币的思路和缘由,而不是推荐大家买。

我希望大家从我的经验教训中总结和整理出自己的一套思路和方法。

很多时候,即便一个真正的“百倍币”就放在眼前,很多人也是不可能从中拿到百倍收益的。

因为每个人的认知不同、体量不同,对同一个币在什么价位买、什么价位卖都会有不同的认知,这就会导致不同的行为、得到不同的结果。

“吾之良药,彼之砒霜”说的就是这个道理。

另外,我还在2023年5月8日专门写过一篇文章《为什么没有明牌的百倍币?》。这篇文章比较全面地表达了我的想法,我推荐大家有时间读一读。

关于百倍币,我是有教训的。今天和大家分享我在LINK上的一段遗憾往事。

LINK(Chainlink)是2017年1CO时的一个老币。在始于2018年的那轮熊市中,它比较幸运,没有像其它曾经大火的项目那样从此悄无声息,而是艰难地活着,偶尔还会在市场上传出一些新闻。

在那个时期,所有曾经的1CO项目死的死,挣扎的挣扎。人们对加密生态的未来充满了疑惑。

尽管以太坊稍微好一点,可大家对以太坊未来的生态会怎么样也看不到清晰的路线。

有人偶尔会提到一些后来被称为DeFi的项目,比如MakerDAO、Kyber等等,但那时的它们无论从“长相”还是“身形”上都完全看不出后来能有的那副模样。

当时的我,因为一直非常执着于“全链上”活动,因此对DAO这个赛道的项目反倒特别看好,而不太看好DeFi。除了DAO之外,我看来看去,稍微觉得可能有希望但也更多是瞎猜地认为预言机或许也能买一买?

于是,我抱着无所谓、心不在焉地态度买了LINK,大概的价格在0.4美元到0.5美元之间。

买完我就再也没理了。

QsemBRmbqJ6CXcu6VZkY0JxK3wnqoR5vLbXjTIGY.png

大概到了2020年7月份,LINK开始了一波爆拉,期间利好消息不断,将其价格推高到了8美元。

这时预言机赛道的意义和重要性已经成为“显学”,其价值也得到了公开地认同。

尽管如此,但那时的我认为短时间内,LINK的价格冲得如此高,已经出现了巨大的泡沫;再加上当时加密市场还没有整体进入牛市,我认为在大市都还没有整体上扬的情况下,单个币涨成这样明显是有问题的。

于是,我毫不犹豫地把LINK抛掉了。

后来,在接下来的牛市中,LINK不仅超过了8美元,而且最高涨到了接近50美元。

有了LINK这个遗憾以后,我复盘了一下在那一轮熊市中我主动买入但后来在牛市到达前就全部抛售的币,发现基本上只要项目本身没有大问题,它们后来在牛市中都会有更加不错的表现,基本都会超过它们在熊市末期牛市前期达到的所谓“峰值”。

所以当时我就决定在这方面要严格约束自己,在下一轮熊市中吸取这个教训:对自己主动买入并且看好的币,只要团队没有大问题,不管它们在牛市前涨了多少,都忽略那些蝇头小利,把它们带到牛市中后期再变现。

在这一轮熊市中,我除了ETHS没有管住自己的手,凭主观认为它涨幅过高而卖掉之外,对其它的币,我就再也没重蹈这个覆辙了。

即便是对ETHS,卖掉之后我就发现自己违反纪律了,非常后悔。这也更让我自此一直坚守着这个原则。


The author said that the blockchain in the message area of the article "The Road to a Thousand Times Growth of the Moon-Day Chain" had some readers leave messages asking if they could recommend some potential coins. I clearly replied to this expectation in the last Twitter exchange. I never recommended any coins except Bitcoin and Ethereum. I said that I had planned to invest in them and I also said that I bought them myself, but the purpose of sharing them is to share with you my ideas and reasons for buying them, rather than recommending them. I hope that you can sum up and rectify them from my experience and lessons. Sort out your own set of ideas and methods. Many times, even if a real hundred-fold coin is in front of you, it is impossible for many people to get a hundred-fold profit from it, because everyone has different cognition and different size, and they will have different cognition on what price to buy and sell the same coin, which will lead to different behaviors and different results. That's what my medicine, Arsenic, said. In addition, I also wrote an article on December, why is it not as good as winning numbers's hundred-fold coin? I have expressed my thoughts in a more comprehensive way. I recommend that you have time to read about 100-fold coins. I have learned a lesson. Today, I will share with you a regrettable past in my life. In the bear market that began in, it was lucky that it didn't live quietly but struggled like other projects that once caught fire. Occasionally, some news came out in the market. At that time, all the projects that once struggled desperately, and people were full of doubts about the future of encryption ecology. Ethereum is a little better, but everyone can't see a clear route about the future ecology of Ethereum. Some people occasionally mention some later-called projects, such as so on, but at that time, they couldn't see what they would look like later in terms of appearance or shape. At that time, I was particularly optimistic about the events of this track because I had been very persistent in the whole chain, but I didn't think much of it. Besides, I seemed to think it might be promising, but it was more a wild guess. Maybe I can buy a prophetic machine, so I bought a rough price between US dollars and US dollars with an indifferent and absent-minded attitude. After I bought it, I never paid attention to it again. Probably in May, a wave of good news began to push its price up to US dollars. At this time, the significance and importance of the prophetic machine track has become an obvious school, and its value has been publicly recognized. However, at that time, I thought that the price had rushed so high in a short time, and there was a huge bubble. At that time, the encryption market has not yet entered the bull market as a whole. I think it is obviously problematic for a single currency to rise like this when the market has not yet risen as a whole, so I did not hesitate to throw it away. Later, in the next bull market, it not only surpassed the US dollar, but also rose to the highest level close to the US dollar. With this regret, I made a counter-offer. I took the initiative to buy the coins in that bear market but later sold them all before the arrival of the bull market. Basically, as long as the project itself had no major problems, they were later in the bull market. There will be better performances, basically exceeding the so-called peak they reached at the end of the bear market and the early stage of the bull market, so I decided to strictly restrain myself in this respect, learn this lesson in the next round of bear market, and take the initiative to buy and value the coins for myself as long as the team has no big problems, no matter how much they rose before the bull market, ignore those petty profits, bring them to the middle and late stage of the bull market and then change them again. In this round of bear market, I subjectively think that it has risen too much except for not controlling my own hands. I have never made the same mistake with other coins except for selling them. Even after selling them, I found myself in violation of discipline, which made me stick to this principle ever since. 比特币今日价格行情网_okx交易所app_永续合约_比特币怎么买卖交易_虚拟币交易所平台

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