When the fund managers of consumer stocks are still facing the question of whether young people drink white wine or not, the gold shop has already welcomed its first batch of post-customers. As one of the few businesses that have been expanding offline stores in the past year, the business of the gold shop is really good. In the Deloitte luxury goods company report, Chow Tai Fook ranked among the top ten in the world with sales exceeding Hermes and Rolex, while in another report on the insight of China gold jewelry retail market, the young people aged to 18 took over the Chinese aunt in the gold boom in 2008 and became gold. The main force of jewelry consumption, as a kind of consumption along the price cycle, the demand for gold jewelry is often synchronized with the rise of the international gold price. However, when the international gold price has hit record highs, the domestic gold price has jumped almost every day from RMB per gram to RMB per gram. When consumers gradually turned to wait and see, the real gold masters are still steadily exporting. The central bank data released on March showed that despite the recent rapid rise of the international gold price, the pace of the Bank of China's increase in holdings remained basically stable, with a gold reserve of 10,000 ounces at the end of the month. At the end of last month, it increased by 10,000 ounces, which is the third consecutive month that the People's Bank of China has increased its holdings of gold reserves, which has been the longest. However, with the US non-agricultural data exceeding expectations last Friday, the short-term game around the international gold price is heating up sharply after the market has doubts and differences on the path of interest rate cuts during the year. So, where did this golden cycle, which began to reach its climax in June but was foreshadowed as early as 2000, betray the anchor of interest rate, break down the Bretton Woods system, and decouple the dollar from gold? In recent years, we are experiencing the third round of gold bull market, but this gold fever has its own special features in detail. It is actually a combination of two small cycles. The first stage, from the fourth quarter of 2008 to the month of 2008, the Fed drove the start of this gold bull market from normal interest rate cuts to severe water release. In the fourth quarter of 2008, the market began to speculate that the Fed's interest rate hike process was coming to an end, and the London gold price began to show. At the meeting in May, the Fed hinted that it would not raise interest rates during the year, and it had been going on for ten years. The interest rate was cut for the first time, and the second and third interest rate cuts were made in the following month. During the period, the gold price rose rapidly from USD ounce to USD ounce. The Federal Reserve said that the annual interest rate would remain unchanged and would remain at the level for some time, which made the gold price lose the motivation to continue to rise. However, only a few months later, the rampant spread of the COVID-19 pandemic not only failed the Fed's plan to maintain interest rates, but even drew the steepest interest rate decline curve in the century to cope with the impact of the pandemic on the economy. In the first two weeks of June, the Federal Reserve cut interest rates sharply by 1 basis point, which was stimulated by the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut and the demand for hedging. London gold prices broke the US dollar in June, surpassing the annual high and reached a record high. In the second stage, the interest rate cut ended from June to June, and the Federal Reserve gradually opened the inflation warrior mode. In the summer of 2008, people began to recover from the panic of the end of the world in the early days of the pandemic. Most economies were also actively engaged in fiscal policy and epidemic prevention and control. With the gradual recovery of global growth, it has become the consensus of the global market that the Federal Reserve will not maintain interest rates for a long time. When the US dollar index rebounded, the price of London gold fluctuated and fell throughout the year. The callback was interrupted by a hot war that has continued to this day. In September, Russia failed to strike Kiev. Driven by the hedging of geopolitical conflicts, gold temporarily returned to its previous high position, but the real yield of US debt still played a more important role in the pricing of gold. After the recovery, the inflation data of June and off the charts set a record in recent years. Since then, the Federal Reserve has started the main task of fighting inflation. In the rhythm of raising interest rates by a total of 10 basis points during the year, the price of gold has gradually retreated, giving up half of the increase in the previous period. So far, it is still a familiar pattern. The price of gold, US debt and gold have played their roles competently on both sides of the scale, but at the end of this year, the trend of gold began to change subtly, and it is no longer satisfied with the dollar rank. Since the beginning of this year, the third stage has been the most special stage of this gold bull market. The negative correlation of gold and the dollar's interest rate has shown a rare deviation in history. Since the beginning of this year, the gold price and the real yield of US debt have shown a synchronous and rapid upward trend. In the case that the interest rate of the US dollar has risen by 10 basis points, the international gold price has also risen more than breaking the gold analysis framework with the real yield of US debt as the core, and this deviation has become more extreme in the market since this year. The gradual acceleration of the gold fever comes down to the fact that the organization responded to the Fed's expectation of cutting interest rates three times in advance during the year, but after the release of monthly non-agricultural data, 10,000 new non-agricultural jobs greatly exceeded expectations, which made the interest rate cut expectation reversed. However, on the same day, after the gold opened slightly, it rebounded rapidly and closed up in the day, rising to US dollars ounces, setting a new record. Because the gold expected to cut interest rates did not adjust back because of the delay in the progress of interest rate cuts, it climbed over the historical peak, hedge fund tycoon Green Capital. David einhorn, the founder, bluntly said that the Fed may not have a chance to cut interest rates once this year, but the policy change of the Fed will not hinder the upward trend of gold prices. Gold is one of our important investments and a way for us to hedge against possible unfavorable situations in the future, which is also a key node in the development of this round of gold fever today. When a large number of analysts around the world take the negative correlation of the real yield of US bonds as the anchor of gold, the failure of the anchor will occur. What time does gold investment mean for gold? Today's investors are accustomed to the inverse relationship between gold and the real yield of US debt, but this simple negative correlation is not the whole price of gold. As an extremely special recognition of its value, gold has almost been engraved into human metal, which is both a commodity and an investment or a universal equivalent. Its price is determined by three factors: short-term, medium-term and long-term factors, and the short-term price of gold is jointly affected by risk aversion and speculative trading. It is said that the COVID-19 epidemic sweeping the world is the opposite of calm. The debt ceiling that the U.S. government keeps touching on, the-Ukraine war and the chaos in the Middle East have made the season a concern for more and more people. Every risk event is pushing gold up in pulses, and at the same time, speculative trading is also accelerating the sprint of gold prices. At this time, the speculative long position of gold has increased rapidly, and the short position has decreased rapidly. In history, the price of gold will continue to rise rapidly for a period of time after breaking through a new high, which is exactly the same as this round. Of course, the bosses will generally say that they are afraid of 比特币今日价格行情网_okx交易所app_永续合约_比特币怎么买卖交易_虚拟币交易所平台

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