比特币创新高之际:一种认识比特币的新视角

币圈资讯 阅读:35 2024-04-22 04:37:26 评论:0
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作者:LiamWang88;来源:Medium

就在几天前,比特币价格突破7万美元达到历史高点。从2008年中本聪发布比特币白皮书至今,比特币的发展已经走过了16年。在这16年里,比特币从没人相信到慢慢被大众接受,从毫无价值到创历史新高,非常典型地反映了一个新生事物曲折向上的发展路径。

毫无疑问,比特币价格的上涨带来了巨大的投资/投机机会。无论是长期主义者还是投机客抑或是旁观者,都不可避免笼罩在一种巨大的FOMO情绪中,大家热衷于讨论比特币下一阶段的高点:8万美元,10万美元,15万美元甚至20万美元…… 尽管给出的答案不尽相同,但在继续上涨的预期上却是出奇的一致。

在我看来,高涨的情绪有助于帮助比特币形成更广泛的共识基础。但越是在这种氛围中,越应该从中抽离,有必要回看比特币诞生和发展的来时之路。

比特币发展简史:里程碑时刻

2008年的10月31日,一个名为中本聪(Satoshi Nakamoto)的人发表了一篇名为《比特币:一种点对点电子货币系统》(Bitcoin: A Peer-to-Peer Electronic Cash System)的论文。在这篇论文中,中本聪详细阐述了基于时间戳以及工作量证明的电子货币的可行性。

当然,很多人会问,为什么中本聪会发表这样一篇论文呢?要回答这个问题,就不得不重新回溯2008年这个世界到底发生了什么。

2008年9月15日,美国大型金融企业雷曼兄弟公司(Lehman Brothers)破产,引发全球性金融危机。

为了应对危机,美国政府针对国内金融体系展开了大规模的救助行动,美联储启动印钞机,采取量化宽松政策大量放水,严重危害了全球金融体系的稳定性。在那一年,不论是在纽约还是在伦敦、东京、香港,每个金融从业者都感觉岌岌可危,担心明天会不会失业;华尔街日报、彭博社、纽约时报、金融时报等全球有影响力的媒体版面几乎每天都在讨论怎么办的问题;全球的每一场大型活动讨论的也都只有一个主题,那就是如何救市。总之,在那一年,全球金融陷入一片哀嚎,每个人都笼罩在经济衰退的阴影中。

金融中介体系性的崩溃以及作恶动机的自食其果,再加上主权国家货币超发所带来的通货膨胀、汇率动荡,及至全球救市行动迟缓等问题,无不反映了传统金融和全球货币体系固有的脆弱和缺陷。也正是这样的时代背景中,比特币应运而生。

2009年1月3日,随着比特币系统的正式上线,中本聪挖掘了比特币的创世区块(区块号0),比特币网络正式诞生,其本人也获得了50枚比特币的奖励。有意思的是,在这个区块中赫然写着一段留言:“The Times 03/Jan/2009 Chancellor on brink of second bailout for banks”

https://en.bitcoin.it/wiki/Genesis_block

到了2010年5月22日,一名居住在佛罗里达州的程序员拉斯洛·汉耶兹(Laszlo Hanyecz)突发奇想决定试着用手里的比特币购买一些现实中的东西,最终他用1万枚比特币换取了佛罗里达州当地一家披萨店送出的两个披萨。这是比特币第一次拥有交换价值,5月22日也因此被加密爱好者们称为“比特币披萨日”(Bitcoin Pizza Day)。

时间来到2012年的11月28日,比特币迎来了其历史上的第一次减半。那一天,比特币的价格大约12美元/枚,6个月后,即2013年的5月28日,比特币的价格上升至130美元/枚。

2016年的7月9日,比特币开始了历史上的第二次减半。那一天,比特币的价格大约是660美元/枚,到了2017年的1月9日,比特币价格来到了900美元/枚。

2020年的5月11日,比特币经历了历史上的第三次减半。那一天比特币的价格差不多在8600美元/枚,六个月后,在2020年11月11日这一天,比特币价格上涨至15700美元/枚。

比特币的神奇还没结束。2021年的6月9日,萨尔瓦多议会通过一项法案,批准将比特币作为该国法定货币。比特币历史上第一次被一个主权国家正式接纳。

2023年1月21日,比特币开发者卡西·洛达莫尔(Casey Rodarmor) 推出了Ordinals 协议,铭文机会大量涌现,比特币迎来了创建生态的历史性时刻。

2024年1月10日,美国证券交易委员会(SEC)批准了11只比特币现货ETF,意味着金融市场中的散户和机构投资者都可以购买比特币丰富其多元化的投资组合,从而成为比特币历史上划时代的里程碑事件。

综观比特币的发展历程,如果一个新事物要想成为特别值得投资的资产,不断的建立和夯实共识是必然要具备的条件,但更重要的是其本身多个偶然和必然因素的“完美”集成:①一个特殊的时代背景或事关人类社会体系性变革的机遇;②显示稀缺性,2100万枚的比特币决定了它的供给并非是没有上限的;③具备创新但有神秘感的属性,现在谁也不知道中本聪到底是谁;④唯一性,没有人会否认比特币是第一个彰显区块链去中心化精神的产物。

比特币的价值:不只是数字黄金

正是这些多个偶然和必然因素的“完美”集成造就了比特币的差异性,也让其拥有了独一无二的价值。

对于比特币的价值,目前最广泛的共识是将其视为“数字黄金”,这就意味着比特币和黄金一样是一种非常好的对抗通胀的避险资产。

这样的比喻看上去是合理的,毕竟两者在特性上拥有诸多相似性。最明显的就是两点:①两者的供应量均是有限的;②两者都可作为法定货币的替代品。

按照这种逻辑,让我们来看看两者目前市值的一个差距。根据companiesmarketcap的数据,截止2024年3月12日,黄金市值14万亿美元,比特币市值大约在1.4万亿美元。[1] 从这个角度来说,比特币至少还有十倍的增长空间。这种逻辑在很多人看来是支撑比特币价格继续上涨的一个有力论据。

如果拉长周期来看,以2013年-2023年这十年为例,如下图所示,除了2014年、2018年和2022年,比特币整体收益率远远跑赢黄金、标普500指数等资产。也再次彰显比特币在投资增值以及对抗通胀方面的优越性。

https://www.visualcapitalist.com/bitcoin-returns-vs-major-asset-classes/

低市值的“数字黄金”角色为比特币带来了非常可观的增长空间。但在我看来,单纯从“数字黄金”的视角去理解比特币是远远不够的。换句话说,我认为,比特币远远不只是“数字黄金”这么简单,它的想象力比黄金要高。主要有两个观点:

1. 黄金是货币,但比特币是货币+技术生态。自打货币出现在人类社会以来,主要承载了三个功能:①价值存储;②价值衡量;③交换媒介。从货币的角度来看,毫无疑问比特币和黄金都具备这样的功能。但比特币比黄金所具有的优势在于,比特币不只有货币的属性,更是一种新的技术创新。这是黄金无法比拟的。

因为具备技术的属性,以比特币为代表的区块链具有更灵活的拓展性,更容易衍生和发展出技术生态。今天,伴随着铭文等新事物的出现,比特币生态开始快速兴起。虽然不确定未来比特币生态会呈现什么样的局面,但很确定的是,比特币的技术属性会结合其货币属性带来更大的想象空间。

2. 黄金是为人类社会准备的,而比特币是为新智体人类社会所准备的。所谓的人类社会,是包括了奴隶社会、封建社会、资本主义社会等不同社会形态。在这些形态中,黄金已经陪伴我们千年之久。

而对新智体人类社会的理解,在我看来,是未来人类通过更强大的智力创造的与现在完全不一样的社会形态:

① 星际社会:我们不再只是地球人,而会成为宇宙人。马斯克移民火星的计划已经表明人类物种中一些冒险主义者正在往这个方向大踏步前进。

② AI人社会:是的,我说的不是人+AI,而是AI人。这意味着人不仅会与自己创造的AI共同生存,而且人本身也会具备某种AI功能,往人的大脑里植入芯片,一切皆有可能不是么?同样,OpenAI已经向我们展示了AI的强大能力,我们也听到了太多关于虚拟社会的新名词:元宇宙、数字人、虚拟化身… 在推动从现实社会向虚拟社会过渡的历程中,人类也从未停下探索的脚步。

无论是星际社会还是AI人社会,都会需要建立一套社会经济体系,也需要有货币充当价值存储、价值衡量、价值交换的媒介。至少从目前看来,没有其他什么物品是比比特币更合适的。当然,就像很多人会担心的一样,伴随着量子计算的愈发成熟,或许某一天,比特币代码会被破解,从而不再具备稀缺属性。也会有人质疑,如果真的未来某一天人类移民火星,会在上面发现类似黄金的物品,比特币并非是最终选项。

没有人能预言未来到底怎么样,放在历史的长河中,每一个新生事物其实都是人类社会重大变革的社会实验,但站在当下看未来,历经16年发展的比特币还远未到结束之时。

比特币的机会:站在新的起点

从2009年比特币创世区块诞生以来,比特币的早期参与者们获取了丰厚的回报。当你证明自己在比特币上赚到钱时,要么证明认知足够深,要么证明运气足够好。伴随着2024年1月比特币现货ETF的被认可,我认为,比特币已经站在一个新的起点。在这个起点上,我的判断是:

① 比特币避险资产的角色定位愈发趋强,整体筹码也会越来越集中于机构和大户手中,散户对比特币的投资需求会被激发但需要提供新的供给。

② 比特币技术生态的属性才刚开始显现。无论是长期主义者还是投资者/投机客,都会有意或无意去创造和发掘新的Alpha机会。铭文的出现可以说是一次尝试,我之所以用尝试这个词,是因为我也不知道铭文是不是那个正确的答案,抑或是有其他可能。但如果某一天当你在比特币上赚到钱时,还是那句话,要么证明了你的认知足够深,要么证明你的运气足够好。


The author's source is that just a few days ago, the price of Bitcoin broke through 10,000 US dollars and reached an all-time high. Since the release of the white paper on Bitcoin in Satoshi Nakamoto in, the development of Bitcoin has gone through years. In this year, Bitcoin has never been believed and gradually accepted by the public. From worthless to a record high, it typically reflects the tortuous development path of a new thing. Undoubtedly, the rise of Bitcoin price has brought huge investment speculation opportunities, whether it is a long-term activist, a speculator or a bystander. You can avoid being shrouded in a huge emotion. Everyone is keen to discuss the next phase of Bitcoin's high point of 10,000,000,000,000,000,000,000 or even 10,000,000 dollars. Although the answers given are different, they are surprisingly consistent in the expectation of continuing to rise. In my opinion, the high emotion helps Bitcoin to form a broader consensus foundation, but the more it is in this atmosphere, the more it is necessary to withdraw from it and look back at the road of Bitcoin's birth and development. A brief history of Bitcoin is a milestone. A man named Satoshi Nakamoto published a paper named Bitcoin, a peer-to-peer electronic money system. In this paper, Satoshi Nakamoto elaborated on the feasibility of electronic money based on timestamp and workload proof. Of course, many people will ask why Satoshi Nakamoto published such a paper. To answer this question, we have to go back to what happened in the world in 2008. In order to cope with the crisis, the bankruptcy of Lehman Brothers, a large American financial company, triggered a global financial crisis. The U.S. government launched a large-scale rescue operation against the domestic financial system. The Federal Reserve started printing presses and adopted a quantitative easing policy, which seriously jeopardized the stability of the global financial system. In that year, every financial practitioner in new york, London, Tokyo and Hong Kong felt in jeopardy and worried about whether he would lose his job tomorrow. The Wall Street Journal, Bloomberg, new york Times, Financial Times and other influential media pages around the world discussed what to do almost every day. There is only one theme in the discussion, that is, how to rescue the market. In short, in that year, global finance fell into a wail. Everyone was shrouded in the shadow of economic recession, and the systematic collapse of financial intermediaries and the consequences of evil motives, coupled with the inflation and exchange rate turmoil brought about by the excessive currency of sovereign countries and the slow action of global rescue, all reflected the inherent fragility and defects of traditional finance and the global monetary system. It was in this era that Bitcoin came into being. With the official launch of the bitcoin system, Satoshi Nakamoto excavated the creation block number of bitcoin, and the bitcoin network was officially born. Interestingly, a message was written in this block. On, a programmer living in Florida, laszlo Hanyez, had a whim and decided to try to buy some real things with his bitcoin. In the end, he exchanged 10,000 bitcoins for two from a local pizza shop in Florida. Pizza This is the first time that Bitcoin has the exchange value, so it is called Bitcoin pizza day by encryption enthusiasts. On the day of, Bitcoin ushered in its first halving in history. On that day, the price of Bitcoin was about US dollars. After that, the price of Bitcoin rose to US dollars on the day of, and it began to halve for the second time in history. On that day, the price of Bitcoin was about US dollars on the day of. The currency experienced the third halving in history. On that day, the price of bitcoin was almost six months after the dollar. On the day of the month, the price of bitcoin rose to the dollar. The magic of bitcoin was not over yet. On the day of the year, the Salvadoran parliament passed a bill to approve bitcoin as the legal tender in the country. Bitcoin was officially accepted by a sovereign country for the first time in its history. On the day of the month, bitcoin developer casillo Damore introduced the opportunity of agreement, and a large number of bitcoin emerged, which ushered in the calendar of creating ecology. Historical Moment: The approval of Bitcoin spot by the US Securities and Exchange Commission means that both retail investors and institutional investors in the financial market can buy Bitcoin to enrich their diversified portfolios, thus becoming an epoch-making milestone in the history of Bitcoin. Looking at the development of Bitcoin, if a new thing wants to become an asset worthy of investment, it is necessary to continuously establish and consolidate consensus, but more importantly, it is a perfect set of many accidental and inevitable factors. A special era background or an opportunity related to the systematic change of human society shows that the scarcity of 10,000 bitcoins determines that its supply is not unlimited, with innovative but mysterious attributes. Now no one knows who Satoshi Nakamoto is and who is unique. No one will deny that Bitcoin is the first product to show the spirit of decentralization of blockchain. The value of Bitcoin is not just digital gold. It is the perfect integration of these accidental and inevitable factors that makes Bitcoin different and makes it. Has a unique value. At present, the most widespread consensus on the value of Bitcoin is to regard it as digital gold, which means that Bitcoin, like gold, is a very good safe-haven asset against inflation. This metaphor seems reasonable. After all, they have many similarities in characteristics. The most obvious thing is that the supply of both is limited, and both can be used as substitutes for legal tender. According to this logic, let's take a look at a gap between the current market value of the two. According to the date, the market value of gold is trillions of dollars, and the market value of bitcoin is about trillions of dollars. From this point of view, bitcoin has at least ten times room for growth. This logic is a powerful argument to support the continued rise of bitcoin prices. If the cycle is extended, take the decade of each year as an example. As shown in the figure below, in addition to the overall rate of return of bitcoin, it far outperforms the assets such as the Gold Standard & Poor's Index, and once again demonstrates the superiority of bitcoin in investment appreciation and fighting inflation. The digital gold role of value has brought considerable growth space for bitcoin, but in my opinion, it is far from enough to understand bitcoin from the perspective of digital gold. In other words, I think bitcoin is far more than just digital gold, and its imagination is higher than gold. There are two main viewpoints: gold is money, but bitcoin is a monetary technology ecology. Since money appeared in human society, it has mainly carried three functions: value storage, value measurement and exchange media. From the perspective of money, there is no doubt that bitcoin has such functions, but the advantage of bitcoin over gold lies in that bitcoin is not only bitcoin. 比特币今日价格行情网_okx交易所app_永续合约_比特币怎么买卖交易_虚拟币交易所平台

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