从 LTH 和 STH 供应看 BTC 牛熊周期

Yesterday, the author shared the waveform data of the realized market value of the holders to see the conversion of the bull-bear cycle. Some friends left a message in the comment area, saying that the passing of the data will not interfere with the accuracy of the data. We can use another set of data to answer everyone's temptation. The following figure shows the change curve of the number of chips held by the blue line of the long-term holder and the red line of the short-term holder in circulation chips. We can see that the peak value is held from the highest point to the end of the day. There is a total reduction in the number of chips, including the long push of gray selling. From the data, we can see the conversion of the bull-bear cycle. It is well known that all the chips left in the gray level belong to the last cycle, which has contributed to the accelerated departure of this part of the chips. On the other hand, if it is not passed, there will not be so many funds from outside the circle, and the price of admission will not reach a new high before halving for the first time in history, and these new funds purchased belong to the same. Therefore, it can only be said that the atypical bull market in this cycle has been caused by changing the rhythm of the traditional bull market, but the essence behind the conversion of the chip structure is that the buying and selling of the supply and demand relationship of the whole market itself is included in this underlying relationship. For analysts, the challenge is to identify the critical period when the selling pressure in the atypical bull market may reach the point of over-distribution and new demand exhaustion, which is what we commonly call escape from the top. In addition, some small partners mentioned this cycle. With the development of ecology, many wallets have been transferred, and gains have been made through pledge. For example, nearly one piece has been accumulated in the ecology, but some of the moving chips have moved and some have moved. From the data, we can see the change of the bull-bear cycle. From the above figure, we can see that the low value held on that day is one piece, and the total number of pieces held by the end of the year is one piece. The influence of this factor on the overall data weight is only one, so it is really considered. However, from the data point of view, the interference to the overall judgment conclusion is not great. Yesterday, we looked at the bull-bear cycle conversion through the excessive currency age. Today, we look at another data, the long-term and short-term holders' supply cycle indicators. Through observation, we can find that the supply of long-term holders has dropped to a certain extent at the peak of previous bull markets, which shows that there is a certain degree of selling pressure in each cycle. On the contrary, the supply of short-term holders often reaches its maximum at the top of the cycle, and it has increased from the bottom of the cycle to the long-term push from the data. Looking at the conversion of the bull-bear cycle, the supply has declined and the supply has increased in the current month. If we use a simple estimate and assume that these retracements or increases reflect the inflection point of supply and demand at the high point of the cycle, we can conclude that the current market has gone through the process of a typical selling cycle, which is similar to the view that the bull market has finished yesterday. Usually, analysts will have different views on the division of the cycle, but I personally will rule out the transition period from bear to bull, that is, from January to the end of the month from US dollar to US dollar. This stage can be regarded as a landmark event that the current round officially entered the bull market cycle since the turning point of supply on March. If we calculate the first stage of this bull market according to this, there may be about months left. Why is it the first stage? Is there still a first stage? I think it is possible. It depends on whether the impact of the Fed's interest rate cut cycle and the US election cycle on the market overlaps or whether there is a long interval. If the interval is long, a bull market will not be ruled out. The possible concrete logical analysis of double-top or multi-top can refer to Ni Da's large-scale topic, which conditions need to be met during the high tide of bull market rise. I won't repeat them here, but what we are currently concerned about is the high point of the first stage of this bull market. If there is a first stage, the judgment of the data speaking cycle will still determine our investment decision. Although the discussion from the time dimension is not necessarily accurate, it is impossible to predict the specific price point, but at least it is clear in the general direction, such as knowing the bull. When the market enters the mid-term, it should hold firm confidence. If there is a promising potential currency, there is no need to panic even if there is a callback, or the high-quality currency that did not follow up in the early stage can be properly laid out, because it is often in the middle and late stage of the bull market that the full-scale outbreak mode will be started. 比特币今日价格行情网_okx交易所app_永续合约_比特币怎么买卖交易_虚拟币交易所平台

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