牛市新格局 山寨币还会有行情吗?

币圈资讯 阅读:47 2024-04-22 03:55:25 评论:0
美化布局示例

欧易(OKX)最新版本

【遇到注册下载问题请加文章最下面的客服微信】永久享受返佣20%手续费!

APP下载   全球官网 大陆官网

币安(Binance)最新版本

币安交易所app【遇到注册下载问题请加文章最下面的客服微信】永久享受返佣20%手续费!

APP下载   官网地址

火币HTX最新版本

火币老牌交易所【遇到注册下载问题请加文章最下面的客服微信】永久享受返佣20%手续费!

APP下载   官网地址

作者:Route 2 FI 来源:The Black Swan 翻译:善欧巴,比特币买卖交易网

由于持续发行新代币 + 新供应流入市场,山寨币的总市值一直在稳步增长。我认为当 BTC.D (比特币占比率) 下跌且山寨币可以自由运行时,将会有少数精选的山寨币强劲上涨。这将不同于以往人们习惯的情况。

关于山寨币的一些想法

我们经常听到山寨币牛市 (alt-season) 的说法,但这次情况可能有所不同。过去我们总觉得只要时机合适,所有山寨币都会上涨。但这真的成立吗?

请记住,与 2021 年相比,现在市场上具有“实用性”的代币数量要多得多。现在每周新增 3-5 个“优质”代币进入市场。总市值 (Total3 mcap) 上涨,每个人似乎都感到高兴。但你有没有想过谁会购买所有这些代币?除非机构或散户投资者大量涌入,否则这将只会变成一场永无休止的玩家对抗玩家 (PvP) 的战斗。

本周的 Wormhole 空投就是一个例子。它以 100 亿估值启动。现在问问你自己,你为什么要持有它?除了纯粹的投机心理,我想不出其他任何理由。

我认为当 BTC下跌且山寨币可以自由运行时,将会有少数精选的山寨币强劲上涨。这将不同于以往人们习惯的情况。

此时参与加密货币的人比上一个周期更多,但人们现在更聪明了。我认为我们将像过去 6 个月一样经历轮动,盲目做多代币可能会导致亏损。据 Thiccy 称,加密货币的山寨币板块今年到目前为止通过解锁和质押奖励增加了 200 亿的供应量。按目前的价格计算,这相当于每天平均通胀 2.5 亿美金的山寨币。今年到目前为止,山寨币的市值增加了大约 2 亿美元,涨幅为 53%,而比特币和以太坊的涨幅分别为 53% 和 45%。

由于新发行的代币数量众多,完全稀释价值的增长超过了流通供应量,今年到目前为止增加了约 70%。代表未来将有多少供应进入市场的 FDV 和流通供应量之间的差距今年到目前为止增加了超过 1500 亿美元。随着流入主要币种的资金放缓,每日山寨币供应量的权重变得越来越明显。

我对交易了解得越多,就越意识到战术性地做空加密货币山寨币的正预期值 (EV) 有多高。至少当你进行配对交易时是这样。在上升趋势中裸空山寨币可能是危险的。

总之,由于持续发行新代币 + 新供应流入市场,山寨币的总市值一直在稳步增长。

市场

上面的例子有一些高 mcap/FDV 代币。看看世界币:10 亿市值,但 FDV 为 640 亿美元。这意味着什么?

嗯,这意味着世界币未来将会有源源不断的供应给市场。2024 年 7 月,他们将开始疯狂抛售,每天有 600 万美元的 WLD 代币投放市场。就背景而言,目前市场上有 1.81 亿美元的 WLD 代币……

市场

你不需要是火箭科学家就能理解这对行情极其不利。根据基本的供需曲线很容易看出,当这些供应冲击市场时,维持 $WLD 价格上涨将非常困难

每天谁会购买 600 万枚 $WLD 代币?

这是否意味着看空山寨币?

不一定,这只是意味着我认为大多数新的 VC 骗局币(高 FDV 币)最终都会疯狂砸盘。您可以在配对交易或想要对冲的情况下利用这一点。

现在就在减半之前,做多 BTC,做空弱势代币是有意义的。例如 $STRK、$APE、$BOME、$ADA、$CRV、$XRP。或者,如果山寨币总体表现优于大盘,则将这些弱势山寨币与强势山寨币结合起来交易:目前强势的山寨币:$ENA、$TON、$FTM、$PENDLE。然而,市场势头每时每刻都在变化,这并不是建议马上就做多/做空这些代币。

Memecoin 的好处在于,它们实际上是仅存的少数诚实代币之一。看看$WIF、$PEPE、$DOGE 等。流通量和总供应量是相同的。没有天量解锁,这只是玩家与玩家之间的较量。


Due to the continuous issuance of new tokens and new supply, the total market value of counterfeit coins has been increasing steadily. I think that when the proportion of bitcoin drops and counterfeit coins can run freely, a few selected counterfeit coins will rise strongly, which will be different from what people used to think in the past. We often hear about the bull market of counterfeit coins, but this time it may be different. In the past, we always felt that all counterfeit coins would rise as long as the time was right. Coins will go up, but is this really true? Please remember that there are much more practical tokens on the market now than in. Now, a new high-quality token is added to the market every week, and the total market value is rising. Everyone seems to be happy, but have you ever wondered who will buy all these tokens? Unless there is a large influx of institutional or retail investors, it will only become an endless battle between players and players. This week's airdrop is an example. Now ask yourself why. I can't think of any other reason to hold it except pure speculation. I think that when it falls and the counterfeit coins can run freely, a few selected counterfeit coins will rise strongly, which will be different from what people used to do in the past. At this time, more people participate in cryptocurrency than in the last cycle, but people are smarter now. I think we will experience the same rotation as in the past month, and blindly making more tokens may lead to losses. It is said that the counterfeit currency plate of cryptocurrency has been unlocked and unlocked so far this year. According to the current price, the pledge reward has increased the supply of hundreds of millions of dollars, which is equivalent to the average daily inflation of hundreds of millions of dollars. So far this year, the market value of counterfeit coins has increased by about hundreds of millions of dollars, while the increase of Bitcoin and Ethereum is respectively and because of the large number of newly issued tokens, the increase of completely diluted value has exceeded the circulation supply, which means that the gap between the supply and circulation supply will increase so far this year. With the slowdown of the inflow of funds into major currencies, the weight of the daily supply of counterfeit money has become more and more obvious. The more I know about the transaction, the more I realize how high the positive expected value of tactical shorting of cryptocurrency counterfeit money is, at least when you make a matching transaction. Bare counterfeit money may be dangerous in the upward trend. In short, the total market value of counterfeit money has been growing steadily due to the continuous issuance of new tokens and the new supply flowing into the market. What does it mean that the world currency has a market value of billion dollars, but it is billion dollars? Well, it means that the world currency will be continuously supplied to the market in the future. They will start to sell tens of thousands of dollars of tokens every day and put them on the market. As far as the background is concerned, there are hundreds of millions of dollars of tokens on the market at present. You don't need to be a rocket scientist to understand that this is extremely unfavorable to the market. According to the basic supply and demand curve, it is easy to see that it will be very difficult to maintain the price increase when these supplies impact the market. Does it mean that it doesn't necessarily mean to bearish on counterfeit coins? It just means that I think that most new fraudulent coins and high coins will eventually smash wildly. You can take advantage of this in the case of matching transactions or hedging. It is meaningful to short more weak tokens before halving them now. For example, if the overall performance of counterfeit coins is better than that of the broader market, it is necessary to combine these weak counterfeit coins with strong counterfeit coins to trade the current strong counterfeit coins. However, the market momentum is changing all the time. This is not to suggest immediately. The advantage of shorting these tokens is that they are actually one of the few honest tokens left. Look, the equal circulation and total supply are the same, and there is no amount of time to unlock them. This is just a contest between players. 比特币今日价格行情网_okx交易所app_永续合约_比特币怎么买卖交易_虚拟币交易所平台

文字格式和图片示例

注册有任何问题请添加 微信:MVIP619 拉你进入群

弹窗与图片大小一致 文章转载注明 网址:https://netpsp.com/?id=56100

美化布局示例

欧易(OKX)最新版本

【遇到注册下载问题请加文章最下面的客服微信】永久享受返佣20%手续费!

APP下载   全球官网 大陆官网

币安(Binance)最新版本

币安交易所app【遇到注册下载问题请加文章最下面的客服微信】永久享受返佣20%手续费!

APP下载   官网地址

火币HTX最新版本

火币老牌交易所【遇到注册下载问题请加文章最下面的客服微信】永久享受返佣20%手续费!

APP下载   官网地址
可以去百度分享获取分享代码输入这里。
声明

1.本站遵循行业规范,任何转载的稿件都会明确标注作者和来源;2.本站的原创文章,请转载时务必注明文章作者和来源,不尊重原创的行为我们将追究责任;3.作者投稿可能会经我们编辑修改或补充。

发表评论
平台列表
美化布局示例

欧易(OKX)

  全球官网 大陆官网

币安(Binance)

  官网

火币(HTX)

  官网

Gate.io

  官网

Bitget

  官网

deepcoin

  官网
关注我们

若遇到问题,加微信客服---清歌

搜索
排行榜
扫一扫,加我为微信好友加我为微信好友