减半倒计时四天 币圈目前什么状况？
比特币价格近日出现剧烈震荡，4月14日盘中一度跌破6万美元整数关口。受此影响，加密市场再度迎来破亿爆仓金额。截止发稿，比特币价格反弹至6.67万美元。
值得关注的是，目前距离比特币第四次减半只有不到一周的时间。减半事件将导致矿工奖励减少，直接影响比特币流通速度。
比特币减半周期
比特币减半通常四年或者每生产210,000发生一次，当比特币减半时，新产出的比特币就会减少一半，换句话说，矿工验证交易并将其添加到区块链上所获奖励减少了50%。
Chainstone Labs首席执行官Bruce Fenton表示：“比特币最重要的特征之一是其有限的供应和发行机制，这也是比特币成为世界上最受欢迎的加密货币的原因，也是其被视为更类似于黄金而不是法定货币的价值储存手段的原因之一。”
截止目前，比特币共经历过三次减半。
第一次减半：2012年11月28日，区块高度210,000；
第二次减半：2016年7月9日，区块高度420,000；
第三次减半：2020年5月11日，区块高度630,000。
预测显示，下一个比特币减半日期在2024年4月20日前。
减半伴随价格上涨
基本逻辑方面，新比特币产出速度的降低可能会导致稀缺性，可能会推高需求，从而导致比特币价格上升。
从历史上看，前三次“减半”事件完成以后，比特币挖矿动力都会减弱，都伴随着比特币价格的大幅上涨。比特币价格在2012年上涨了8450%，在2016年将上涨了290%，在2019年上涨了560%。而在下一次减半之后，比特币的生产成本预计将会达到4万美元左右。
以下是之前减半后BTC价格的表现：
第一次减半：BTC价格约为12美元。一年后，达到了1,100美元，自减半之日起价格飙升了近 10,000%。
第二次减半：比特币交易价格接近 670 美元。 2017年12月，比特币逼近20,000美元大关，自减半以来价格上涨近3,000%。
第三次减半：BTC价格徘徊在9,500美元左右。此后，比特币用了一年半的时间达到了69,000美元，增长了725%。
“矿工”的处境
在即将到来的减半期间，比特币的奖励将从6.25 BTC降至3.125 BTC，这意味着矿工从区块奖励中获得的收入实际上减少了一半。
这一变化可能会导致哈希率降低，因为效率较低的矿工可能会发现难以支付其成本，从而将其挖矿设备下线。
Galaxy的分析师认为，在4月份比特币区块奖励减半后，大多数旧矿机将难以实现收支平衡，从而促使矿工将其下线。
查看历史公开数据，2023年，7天平均哈希率从255 EH/s飙升到516 EH/s，增长了102%。
此次哈希率的激增一部分反映了比特币价格的上涨，另一部分也体现出公司为积极响应市场而购买更高效的挖矿设备。
目前，收入的下降和采购新设备带来的成本上升使矿工处在艰难的境地。
比特币ETF减少抛压
减半常常被视为牛市的顶点信号，市场会在事件来临之际，先行释放一轮抛售压力。
历史数据显示，在2016年和2020年的两次减半之后，比特币价格都经历了30%左右的大幅下跌调整。
然而，今年有所不同。2024年1月美国证券交易委员会（SEC）批准上市的比特币现货ETF可能会影响减半后的币价走势。
现货比特币ETF交易的第一个季度，美国证券交易委员会(SEC)批准的11种产品的总资金流入达到了约121亿美元，吸收了减半后潜在抛售压力的相当一部分。比特币ETF在一定程度上同吸引新资这一点来平衡了比特币减半所带来的抛压。
Recently, the price of bitcoin has fluctuated violently, and once fell below the integer mark of $10,000 in intraday trading. As a result, the encryption market once again ushered in an explosion of 100 million yuan. The price of bitcoin rebounded to $10,000 by the deadline of publication. It is noteworthy that it is less than a week before the fourth halving of bitcoin. The halving event will directly affect the circulation speed of bitcoin, and the bitcoin will be halved. Usually, it will be halved every four years or once every production. It will be reduced by half. In other words, the rewards for miners to verify transactions and add them to the blockchain will be reduced. The CEO said that one of the most important features of Bitcoin is its limited supply and distribution mechanism, which is one of the reasons why Bitcoin has become the most popular cryptocurrency in the world, and it is also one of the reasons why it is regarded as a value storage means more similar to gold than legal tender. Up to now, Bitcoin has experienced three halving, the first halving, and the second halving of the block height. The prediction of the third halving of the daily block height shows that the next bitcoin halving date will be halved before the date of the month, with the basic logic of price increase, the decrease of the output speed of new bitcoin may lead to scarcity, which may push up the demand, which may lead to the increase of bitcoin price. Historically, after the completion of the first three halving events, the mining power of bitcoin will be weakened, all of which are accompanied by the sharp increase of bitcoin price, which will rise in 2000 and will rise in 2000. After the next halving, the production cost of Bitcoin is expected to reach about 10,000 US dollars. The following is the performance of the price after the previous halving. The price for the first halving was about US dollars a year later. Since the halving, the price has soared nearly for the second time. Since the halving, the price of Bitcoin has approached the US dollar mark. Since the halving, the price has risen nearly for the third time, and the price has hovered around US dollars. After that, it took a year and a half for Bitcoin to grow to US dollars. The situation of miners is approaching. During the next half period, the reward of bitcoin will be reduced from to, which means that the income of miners from block rewards has actually been reduced by half. This change may lead to a decrease in the hash rate, because inefficient miners may find it difficult to pay their costs and thus take their mining equipment offline. Analysts believe that most old mining machines will find it difficult to break even after the bitcoin block rewards are halved in January, thus prompting miners to take them offline to view historical public data, and the annual average hash rate will increase from soaring to increasing. The surge in hash rate partly reflects the rise of bitcoin price, and partly reflects that the company has bought more efficient mining equipment to actively respond to the market. At present, the decline in income and the increase in the cost of purchasing new equipment have put miners in a difficult position. Bitcoin has reduced selling pressure by half, which is often regarded as the peak signal of a bull market. The market will release a round of selling pressure first when the incident comes. Historical data show that bitcoin prices have experienced about 10% after twice halving in and. However, this year is different. The spot bitcoin approved for listing by the US Securities and Exchange Commission may affect the price trend after halving. In the first quarter of spot bitcoin trading, the total capital inflow of three products approved by the US Securities and Exchange Commission reached about US$ 100 million, which absorbed a considerable part of the potential selling pressure after halving, and to some extent balanced the selling pressure brought by halving bitcoin by attracting new capital. 比特币今日价格行情网_okx交易所app_永续合约_比特币怎么买卖交易_虚拟币交易所平台
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