深度分析:牛市的暴富潮是不是马上要来了呢?

币圈资讯 阅读:30 2024-04-22 02:38:48 评论:0
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作者:日月小楚 来源:X,@riyuexiaochu

大牛市的最火爆的行情,是无数的暴富机会。那并不是20、50个点,也不是2、5倍的涨幅。而是20倍、50倍的大好行情。

并且是板块轮番上涨。只要持币不动,迟早轮到你的币暴涨,如果运气好抓住两波轮动,那简直不敢想。

经常会看到有人喊,大的要来了?也会看到人喊,这个4月/5月。那么是不是马上要来了呢?

对于这个问题,我想从资金的角度来分析。我觉得情况在变、形势在变、多空博弈在变、庄家也在变。所以简单的复刻历史和数据,并不定会成功。

而资金面和非理性行为是第一性原理。不管庄家如何画K线,发布利空消息,但是资金是实实在在的。同样,不管任何时候,人永远无法克服自身的弱点,做出非理性的行为。所以这两样犹如物理学的基本定理一样,不管苹果掉下砸中的是谁的脑袋,Ta发现的都是万有引力定律。

所以,我们从资金的角度,来判断牛市的暴富潮。它主要来自三波资金的叠加释放。

1 btc的切换资金

一轮大的山寨行情,都是在btc是一轮大的上涨之后。然后市场也形成了共识,btc先涨,然后山寨乱飞。除了共识,比较重要的一点是btc的获利盘资金会进入山寨币中。试想一下,btc如果达到10万美金的时候,总市值将达到2万亿美金。即使只有5%-10%的资金切换到山寨币,那都是1千亿到2千亿的资金量。要知道平时usdt增发10亿美金都能让人高潮了,更不用说1千亿美金了。

2 市场内踏空资金

在一波行情开始前,往往会经历一波调整。很多人会恐慌割肉,满手u。而在btc在上涨,也基本处于踏空的状态,往往处于不敢买的情况。随着行情不断上涨,这些踏空资金就会开始慢慢买入。由于市场的规模很大,在一次底部开始的上涨过程中,往往有几百亿美金的会买入。

3 新入场资金

有了前面的两波资金,就会出现暴涨的币,出现暴涨龙头。比如21年的doge和shib。那些在车上,他亲朋好友也会带入场。甚至21年的时候,我身边很多朋友只知道比特币和狗狗币,连以太坊都没听说过。新人的入场往往是这样的,新买一点试试水,过段时间发现涨了,相信币圈果然是到处黄金的地方。然后后悔买少了,继续加大投资,跑步进场。

从资金的角度明白了大牛市的三大逻辑。才能一下子看清啥时候来大的。那么从这个逻辑出发,现在是不可能来大的。

首先是btc切换资金,一是btc上涨在中间位置,现在就愿意切换到山寨的比较少,二是今年来主要行情的推动是ETF资金,这些资金是无法换到山寨币。

其次踏空资金,市场整体的仓位都比较重了,并没有太多的踏空资金。

所以我们还需要再等等,不要灰心,不要气馁。坚持住,家人们,我们终将迎来胜利的曙光。


Author Sun Moon Xiao Chu Source The hottest market in the big bull market is countless opportunities to get rich, which is not a point or a double increase, but a double good market, and the plate takes turns to rise. As long as you hold the currency, it will be your turn to skyrocket sooner or later. If you are lucky enough to catch two waves of rotation, you can't imagine that you will often see people shouting that you are coming, and you will also see people shouting that this month is coming soon. I want to analyze this problem from the perspective of funds. I think the situation is changing. The long-short game is changing, and the banker is also changing, so the simple repetition of history and data may not be successful, but the fund surface and irrational behavior are the first principles. No matter how the banker draws a line to release bad news, the fund is real, and at any time, people can never overcome their own weaknesses and make irrational behavior, so these two things are like the basic theorem of physics. No matter who the apple falls and hits, it is the law of gravity, so we judge from the perspective of funds. The boom of breaking the bull market mainly comes from the superposition of three waves of funds and the release of switching funds. A big round of cottage market is after a big rise, and then the market has reached a consensus. Then the cottage flies around. Except for the consensus, the profit-making disk funds will enter the cottage currency. Imagine that if it reaches US$, the total market value will reach US$ trillion. Even if only the funds are switched to the cottage currency, it will be 100 billion to 100 billion. You should know that the amount of funds that can be issued at ordinary times can be made. People climax, not to mention hundreds of billions of dollars. Before a wave of market starts, the short-selling funds in the market will often undergo a wave of adjustment. Many people will panic and cut their hands, but when they are rising, they are basically in a state of short-selling, and they are often afraid to buy. As the market continues to rise, these short-selling funds will start to buy slowly. Because of the large scale of the market, tens of billions of dollars will often buy new admission funds in the process of rising at the bottom. With the first two waves of funds, there will be skyrocketing coins. At present, the leading companies are soaring, such as those in 2008 and those in the car. Even in 2008, many friends around me only knew Bitcoin and dogecoin, and even the Ethereum had never heard of it. Newcomers' admission is often like this. After a while, they found that the coin circle has gone up, believing that it is really a place of gold everywhere, and then regretted buying less, and continued to increase investment and running into the market. Only from the perspective of funds can we suddenly understand when the big bull market came, then from this logic. It's impossible to make a big start now. First, switch funds. First, it's rising in the middle position. Now there are fewer people who are willing to switch to the cottage. Second, the main market this year is driven by funds. These funds can't be exchanged for cottage currency. Second, the overall positions in the capital market are relatively heavy, and there is not much money to be tapped. So we need to wait, don't be discouraged, don't be discouraged, and stick to people at home. We will finally usher in the dawn of victory. 比特币今日价格行情网_okx交易所app_永续合约_比特币怎么买卖交易_虚拟币交易所平台

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