Solana链上的Memecoin:交易狂潮的背后

币圈资讯 阅读:29 2024-04-22 02:36:12 评论:0
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作者:HYPHIN、THOR 来源:onchaintimes 翻译:善欧巴,比特币买卖交易网

得益于许多区块链开发者使用的便捷方法所带来的便利性和低进入门槛,交换和创建自定义代币变得比以往任何时候都容易。再加上社交媒体和不断增长的散户投资者数量,这大大加快了没有提供任何效用并且仅依靠忠诚的社区和无情、积极的营销来维持其增长的代币的扩张。

介绍

互联网文化和表情包 (meme) 在加密领域长期占据重要地位。这一点的证明就是撰写本文时,Memecoin的总市值高达约 666.5 亿美元。狗狗币占整个类别的大约 43.81%,其价值高于一些知名企业(例如沃达丰、Pinterest 和罗技)。

长期以来,以太坊一直是Memecoin的中心枢纽,几乎没有竞争对手,直到最近。这些代币相关活动出现了转移,发生在索拉纳链上,成为项目进入市场和投机者寻求入门机会的主要平台。

Solana扩张和交易量激增的一个重要因素是其充满活力的链上Memecoin生态系统,今年引起了极大的兴趣,例如“dog wif hat” 和“Bonk” 等名称已进入主流并飙升至极高的估值。

Solana

虽然我们不赞成交易Memecoin,但了解这个正在站稳脚跟并获得知名度的市场正在发生什么、为什么以及如何发生仍然是有益的。

乍一看,似乎无法区分看似毫无意义的代币价格上涨背后的原因,但如果仔细观察,可能会找到一些线索。因此,在本文中,我们将通过检查每一个角落和缝隙,对整个Memecoin空间进行广泛概述,以尝试弄清到底发生了什么。

概览

在进行分析之前,最好先了解一下Memecoin的运作环境及其特征,因为整个市场缺乏理性,需要保持开放的心态进行观察。

每个利基市场都发展了自己的独特文化,索拉纳链上的链上活动也不例外。自从索拉纳牛市开始以来,错过改变人生的机会和一夜暴富的故事在 Twitter 上屡见不鲜。意识到潜在的造富交易即将发生,许多不同背景的人都被吸引到流动性池中,希望能幸运地发一笔财。

索拉纳链上Memecoin的一个主要特征是每天创建的大量代币。

Solana

由于推出Memecoin所需的成本极低,每天都会有大量新的交易对在去中心化交易所上市。这使得它成为一个快节奏的环境,频繁轮换、趋势和元策略的转变司空见惯。大多数,如果不是全部的新交易对都缺乏流动性,导致价格影响大、波动剧烈。一个项目的平均寿命往往在 24 小时左右或更短,这主要是由于恶意行为者试图通过拉地毯式骗局和欺骗性营销欺骗雄心勃勃的毫无戒心的投资者来利用这种狂热情绪。

如果您花足够的时间在 Telegram 群组中查看图表并在 Twitter 上筛选标签,就会发现一个模式,可以让您将大多数参与者映射到对该领域至关重要的特定角色。

角色介绍:

  • 开发者:被奉为神明,开发人员被视为能够引导社区走向财务自由的牧羊人。他们的决定通常会塑造项目早期价格走势并决定项目的寿命,因为作为创建者,他们可以完全控制基本面并可能持有大量代币供应。

  • 影响者:利用他们在社交媒体上的影响力,影响者会出于不同的动机分享他们的个人投资以提高人们对项目的认识。根据他们的意图,有些人希望通过增加社会证明来加强社区,有些人只是想寻找退出流动性以获利。

  • 社区成员:忠诚到底,愿意毫无保留地追随项目走向承诺之地或归零。这些人经常出现在聊天群组中与他人互动,不知疲倦地在知名人士的帖子下宣传他们的投资,而知名人士的关注可能会成败。

  • 狙击手:通过自动进行链上交互,在流动性添加到池中并开放交易后立即不加选择地购买代币,这些钱包的操盘手希望利用普通交易员介入后产生的上行势头获利。在大多数情况下,他们并不看好长期前景,并且会尽早抛售,因为机会很多。

请记住,所有这些都发生在残酷无情的玩家对战环境中。为了保持竞争力并取得竞争机会,已经开发了许多具有实用分析功能的交易工具来加快决策和执行速度。Photon 和 BonkBot 等服务受到大多数交易员的青睐,相较于传统选择而言,它们大大提高了生活质量。

成功 Memecoin 的特征

在浩瀚的代币海洋中,只有少数代币能够在较长时间内维持高估值并拥有紧密联系的相关社区。这意味着成功肯定离不开一些可量化的因素。

拥有稳健的尽职调查框架将使筛选冗长观察列表的过程变得更加容易并节省时间。这引出了一个问题——我们可以使用哪些有价值的信息来对这些不可预测的代币进行有效分析?

我们可以利用历史数据尝试识别一些常见的模式和指标,以便在一定程度上评估项目潜力。例如,通过分析排名前 50 的Memecoin,我们可以大致了解表现优异者的属性。

趋势

由于整个Memecoin领域主要由趋势和叙事驱动,因此值得关注当前流行的类别或主题,以免押错注。

通过使用词云图可视化热门话题,可以比较简单地看出当前的主要趋势和子趋势。

Solana

在这个例子中,动物主题的代币最为相关,其中猫是最受欢迎的子主题。该可视化中的第二个最大集群是“网络文化”,通常涵盖加密货币推特和主流表情包。

该可视化中一个有趣的细节是使用了“copy”关键字,其中包括从原创概念衍生出来的项目,并融入了自己独特的元素。 这些项目会不断出现,为错过先驱项目的人们提供第二次机会。

指标

在缩小有前景的类别范围之后,在继续之前应该评估一些技术细节。

  • 禁用铸造授权的项目百分比:100%

为了避免无限的抛售压力,每个项目都应该禁止铸造额外的代币。我们观察到的所有项目都禁用了此设置。

  • 流动性池代币销毁率:

    • 平均值 - 78.7%

    • 中位数 - 98.0%

部署者添加初始流动性时收到的流动性池代币被销毁,可以降低流动性被创建者提取的风险。这里的中间值表明通常大部分初始流动性都会被销毁。

  • 前 10 个钱包持有的代币百分比:

    • 平均值 - 27.51%

    • 中位数 - 21.79%

在大多数情况下,顶级代币持有者分布在 20% 范围内,并且因项目而异。百分比越低,少数个人因大量抛售而扰乱市场秩序的可能性就越低。

  • 交易开始天数:

    • 平均值 - 23.52 天

    • 中位数 - 6.66 天

由于大多数Memecoin的寿命不超过几天,因此交易开始后 100 小时后仍有交易量 (即活动迹象) 通常是一个很好的指标。排名前 50 的Memecoin的中位数寿命不到一周,这表明市场变化有多快。然而,顶级Memecoin往往保持相对稳定,并在排行榜上占据一席之地。

社区

社区是每个Memecoin的基石,也是评估时最困难但最关键的方面。活跃、直言不讳的社区拥有自己独特的文化,对于传播信息和吸引新成员在竞争激烈的市场中实现增长至关重要。

为了促进交流并尽早进行市场营销,项目需要在媒体平台(例如网站、Twitter、Telegram 和 Discord)上露脸,以确保可信度和最大限度的传播范围。

  • 每支项目拥有的独特平台数量:

    • 1 个平台 - 2%

    • 2 个平台 - 10%

    • 3 个平台 - 78%

    • 4 个平台 - 10%

我们观察到的三分之二以上的Memecoin至少拥有 3 个渠道,因此如果没有 Telegram 和 Twitter 聊天室,就应该立即引起警觉。

我们可以利用这些渠道调查社区,寻找积极的指标,这些指标通常包括(但不限于):

  • 没有内讧: 人们在群聊或 Twitter 上不断争吵对项目形象不利,可能会让对项目感兴趣的投机者望而却步。积极的情绪和积极、健康的讨论更具吸引力。 *强大的 Twitter 影响力: 在 Twitter 上拥有坚实的品牌和可识别的特征(例如内部笑话、表情包的常见主题)对于最大化项目被记住、识别和病毒式传播以吸引尽可能多的关注至关重要。

  • 受人尊敬的 KOL: 知名社交媒体人士支持并经常提及该Memecoin将是一个巨大的利好,而与以拉高然后抛售出名的 KOL 合作则应该避免。

最后的评估

在浩瀚的Memecoin海洋中发现具备长期潜力者绝非易事,需要通过量化指标和社区观察等多维度分析来评估。本文档概述了一种基于指标和社区参与度的评估矩阵的方法,供投资者参考。

Solana

如果你想知道为什么「危险信号」轴从 4 开始,答案是:Solana 上没有危险信号的 Memecoin 根本不存在。通过建立社区排名与存在的负面因素数量之间的比率,我们可以将每个代币松散地分配到一个类别中。

目标应该始终是识别和与具有高社区评级和最少警告标志的 Memecoin 进行互动,因为它们成功的可能性更大。

然而,在尝试对项目进行分类时,应该考虑一些常见现象:

社区接管:在某些情况下,一个有前途且广受欢迎的概念的开发者决定通过出售其所有代币来退出项目,作为回应,社区创建新的沟通渠道,从本质上重新启动该项目,而不避免了开发者恶作剧的风险。

影响者复兴:这很难预测,但存在极端情况,一个死去的项目由于某位受欢迎的创作者的参与而获得第二次机会并受到广泛关注。

狙击手退出:狙击手的早期退出通常会是项目在排行榜上留下污点,他们可以增加在社交媒体上进行营销的机会,因为他们不太可能通过巨大的销售压力来抵消社区的努力,因为巨大的销售压力很容易吓跑人们。

寻找宝石是一项艰巨的任务,但正如历史所证明的那样,它们确实存在,并且偶尔会出现在我们的雷达上。

结论

Memecoin浪潮席卷而来,已经成为加密货币市场不可忽视的一部分。即使没有参与意愿,了解Memecoin市场也是任何合格的加密货币投资者必备的知识。通过本文提供的分析方法,投资者可以更加理性地评估Memecoin项目的潜力。


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The average median of the percentage of tokens held by the previous wallet is within the range in most cases, and the lower the percentage varies according to the project, the lower the possibility that a few individuals will disrupt the market order due to a large number of selling. 比特币今日价格行情网_okx交易所app_永续合约_比特币怎么买卖交易_虚拟币交易所平台

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