鲍威尔放出狠话_虚拟币交易所平台,数字货币,NFT

隔夜，急速修复的市场遭到了美联储主席鲍威尔的迎头痛击。隔夜美东时间11/30上午，美联储放出了主席鲍威尔在参议院银行、住房和城市事务委员会前的听证发言[1]。据路透社的说法，鲍威尔的鹰派发言，出乎了很多分析师的意料之外[2]。

鲍威尔放出狠话，美股应声受挫，币市也遭迎头一击。

鲍威尔放了什么狠话？鲍威尔说，要推动在12月中旬的FOMC议息会议上讨论加速taper（缩减购债）。鲍威尔的逻辑是，新变种病毒Omicron可能有中断供应链并进一步推高物价的风险[1]。他还说，也许是时候把“暂时性的（transitory）”这个词从对通胀的描述中去掉了[3]。

在11/29《病毒反扑美联储》的结尾，我们说对鲍威尔拭目以待。不过从目前的表态来看，鲍威尔确实是耍了一个预期管理的花招。29号文章认为，如果病毒来势汹汹，那么可能需要暂停taper以支持经济；不过如果鲍威尔敢这么讲，金融市场就会借机抢跑。我们也不知道鲍威尔会如何化解这个两难困境。

11/30《火鸡没有感恩节》一文以此为例，列举了四种逻辑线路。好消息的正逻辑、反逻辑，坏消息的正逻辑、反逻辑。

没想到与此同时，鲍威尔已经胸有成竹。他居然跳开了全部四种逻辑线路，发明了一种新的逻辑！果然不愧是美联储的执帅印者！

鲍威尔需要做到既承认病毒是个坏消息，又不能让金融市场借机抢跑。他要进行预期管理。而承认坏消息，就进入了坏消息的反逻辑。根据坏消息的反逻辑，美联储就要收水转放水。我不知道26号恐慌性暴跌后、29号快速反弹，这其中转折是不是市场冷静下来之后想了想，美联储有可能要暂缓收水，于是抢跑。

于是鲍威尔没有按照常理出牌。他没有走这套逻辑。他硬生生地在逻辑线路的中间加入了通胀，为此还不惜打了自己的脸，否定了自己此前一直强调的“通胀是暂时性的”这一说法。如此一来，他就成功地把坏消息嫁接到了好消息的反逻辑上，得到了一个惊人的结论：

病毒来势汹汹，所以美联储要加速收水。

如果我们把鲍威尔的逻辑还原至此，就会看到其中的不合常理之处。但是，人几乎能够接受任何的解释。所以，经过鲍威尔扩写后的句子竟然神奇地合理起来了：

病毒来势汹汹，有中断供应链、进一步推高通胀的风险，所以美联储要加速收水。

好吧好吧，此时我只想写一个大写的“服”字。为了配合《年底没有下半场》的安排（参见10/15文章），鲍威尔真是绞尽脑汁啊。一贯那么鸽的风格，居然在新变异病毒出现、全球经济重又陷入失速风险之时，变得如此鹰派，也是神了个大奇。

如果12月中的议息会议按照这个思路走，那么年底之前的市场就挺难过了。看鲍威尔这架势，是要把原定6个月到2022年6月份的taper给压缩到3个月来加速搞，搞完之后可能还要提前上加息的大招。这一通暴锤之下，安有完卵哦？

现在还不知道2022年美联储的会议日程表。看不到货币扩张的收紧趋势有逆转预期的话，市场中的投机资金还能坚持多久呢？如果它们坚持不住而选择抛售离场，那么牛市还能坚持多久呢？内心不够坚定的投资者，一心想趁牛市下半场赚一把块钱的投机者，总是会生出这种恐惧和绝望的想法。

真正的绝望似乎还没有到来。投机者还在评论区谩骂，就是他们还没有绝望的迹象。真正的绝望，是割肉离场，心灰意懒。

不让投机者绝望，又如何完成洗盘呢？

鲍威尔打了一手好牌。


参考资料：
- [1] https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/testimony/powell20211130a.htm
- [2] https://www.reuters.com/markets/us/powell-yellen-head-congress-inflation-variant-risks-rise-2021-11-30/
- [3] https://www.cnbc.com/2021/11/30/powell-says-fed-will-discuss-speeding-up-bond-buying-taper-at-december-meeting.html

(公众号：刘教链。星球：公众号回复“星球”)
(免责声明：本文内容均不构成任何投资建议。加密货币为极高风险品种，有随时归零的风险，请谨慎参与，自我负责。)

The market that was rapidly repaired overnight was hit head-on by Federal Reserve Chairman Powell. The Federal Reserve released Chairman Powell's hearing speech in front of the Senate Banking, Housing and Urban Affairs Committee overnight. According to Reuters, Powell's hawkish speech was beyond the expectation of many analysts. Powell released harsh words, and the US stock market was also hit head-on. Powell said that he would promote the discussion of accelerating the reduction of debt purchases at the interest rate meeting in mid-month. Moore's logic is that the new variant virus may interrupt the supply chain and further push up prices. He also said that it may be time to remove the word temporary from the description of inflation. At the end of the virus's counterattack against the Federal Reserve, we said that we would wait and see Powell, but from the current position, Powell did play a trick of expected management. The article thinks that if the virus is threatening, it may need to be suspended to support the economy, but if Powell dares to say so, the financial market will seize the opportunity. We don't know how Powell will solve this dilemma. There is no Thanksgiving Day for turkeys. Taking this as an example, four logic lines are listed: the positive logic and the negative logic of good news and the positive logic and the negative logic of bad news. Unexpectedly, at the same time, Powell has a well-thought-out plan. He actually jumped out of all four logic lines and invented a new logic. Powell, the commander of the Federal Reserve, needs to admit that the virus is bad news and not let the financial market take the opportunity to get away. He wants to conduct anticipation management. Admitting the bad news is the anti-logic of the bad news. According to the anti-logic of the bad news, the Fed is going to collect water and turn to release water. I don't know if the rapid rebound of the No.1 after the panic plunge is the turning point. After the market calmed down, I thought that the Fed might suspend the collection of water, so Powell didn't follow the common sense. He didn't follow this logic. He forcefully joined inflation in the middle of the logic line, so he didn't hesitate to punch himself in the face and denied the inflation that he had been emphasizing before. This statement is temporary, so he successfully grafted the bad news to the anti-logic of the good news and got an amazing conclusion. The virus is threatening, so the Fed will speed up the collection of water. If we restore Powell's logic here, we will see the irrationality, but people can almost accept any explanation, so the sentence after Powell's expansion is magically reasonable. The virus is threatening, interrupting the supply chain and further pushing up the risk of inflation. Therefore, the United States At this time, I just want to write a capital letter to match the arrangement that there is no second half at the end of the year. See the article Powell really racked his brains. It is amazing that the pigeon style has become so hawkish when the new mutant virus appears and the global economy is in danger of stalling. If the interest rate meeting in the middle of the month follows this idea, the market before the end of the year will be very sad. Look at Powell's posture, it is necessary to compress the original month to month. To speed up the big move of raising interest rates in advance after the completion, there are eggs under the hammer. I don't know yet how long the speculative funds in the market can last if the tightening trend of monetary expansion is not seen in the Fed's meeting schedule in 2008. If they can't hold on and choose to sell and leave, how long can the bull market last? Investors who are not determined enough to make a few dollars in the second half of the bull market will always have this kind of fear and despair. It seems that the real despair hasn't come yet. Speculators are still abusing in the comment area, that is, they haven't shown signs of despair. The real despair is to cut the meat and leave the market. How can we finish the dish washing if we don't let the speculators despair? Powell played a good hand. Reference materials: WeChat official account Liujiao Chain Planet WeChat official account replied to the planet disclaimer. None of the contents in this article constitute any investment suggestion. Cryptographic currency is a very high-risk variety with the risk of returning to zero at any time. Please be cautious and take responsibility. 比特币今日价格行情网_okx交易所app_永续合约_比特币怎么买卖交易_虚拟币交易所平台

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