有95后炒鞋月入百万！币圈势力涌入，单日成交额超新三板，这是新风口还是割韭菜？
“70后炒股，80后炒房，90后炒币，00后炒鞋。”
口号很响亮，鞋市很疯狂，在明星效应、饥饿营销的加持下，今年球鞋成功出圈，成为今年最大的炒作黑马。
The slogan is loud, the shoe market is crazy, and, with the star effect, the hunger market, this year's sneakers have successfully gone out and become the biggest black horse this year.
炒鞋有多火？
How hot are the shoes?
一双鞋初始发售价格为1399元人民币，然后没过多久，在网络购物平台上其售价能突破万元。
The initial sale price of a pair of shoes was RMB 1,399, and it was not long before the sale price on the Internet shopping platform was exceeded by RMB 10,000.
“老年人炒股，中年人炒币，年轻人炒鞋”成为新一代共识。如今在各大社群里，连币圈玩家都开起了玩笑：“别炒币了，我们去炒鞋吧。”
"The old man's shares, the middle-aged, the young people's shoes" became a new-generation consensus. Now, in all communities, even currency-circumnate players joke about: "Don't. Let's go.
如果你要问鞋子有啥好炒的，他们会回答你：“不要问，问就是冲。”在炒鞋圈，“冲”是一句文化标识，其意思同于币圈的“梭哈”。
If you want to ask them what their shoes are like, they'll answer you, "Don't ask, just ask." In the shoering ring, "go" is a cultural symbol, meaning "songha" in the currency ring.
▲不少因炒鞋而发家致富、月入百万的故事在网上流传着。
The story of a million-month-old man who is rich because of his shoes is on the Internet.
炒鞋原本是因为品牌限量销售策略，仅仅在球鞋圈内小范围流传。
诸如耐克、阿迪达斯、匡威等厂商采取饥饿营销策略，推出限量款名牌鞋，引发球鞋爱好者抢购，而由于许多商家采取线下摇号抽签策略，这些限量款也越发一鞋难求。
Producers such as Nike, Adidas and Quakers have adopted hunger marketing strategies and introduced limited-size shoes, triggering the purchase of sneakers, which have become even more difficult because of the downward-drawn-up strategy of many vendors.
比如，2015年adidas的第一双Yeezy问世时，初代Yeezy Boost750仅发售了9000双，当时还有消息称只有adidas的VIP用户才有资格购买，该款鞋从350美金在黑市炒到了10倍以上的价格。
For example, when the first pair of Yeezy in Adidas was born in 2015, the first generation Yeezy Boost750 sold only 9,000 pairs, and there were reports that only the VIP users in Adidas were eligible to purchase the shoes, which were more than 10 times the price of $350 on the black market.
“一级市场出厂后的鞋，在二级市场上往往能炒到2-8倍的价格。很多‘95后’、‘00后’的小孩都去线下店排队抽签，其实就像我们股民打新股抽签类似。”一位资深投资人说。
“Shoes in the first-tier market tend to be two to eight times the price in the second-tier market. Many kids go to the bottom-of-line shop after ‘95’ and after ‘00’ and draw lots, just as we share a new share in the drawing of lots.” A senior investor says.
近两年，随着《中国有嘻哈》、《这就是街舞》等节目的热播，给了球鞋文化出圈的机遇，普通的球鞋里面融入了大量时尚、个性、明星等元素。
In the last two years, with the show "China has hip-hop, this is the street dance" and so forth, the shoe culture has been given the opportunity to go out, and the regular shoe has incorporated a lot of fashion, personality, star, and so on.
8月19日，一张“吴亦凡上脚 Air Jordan 1蜘蛛侠”的照片点燃了整个鞋圈。短短 1 个小时内，同款球鞋涨了至少 5 倍。
On August 19th, a photo of "Air Jordan 1 Spider-Man" lit the entire shoering. Within an hour, the same shoe grew at least five times.
图源：新浪微博
Source: New Wave Web
“感谢吴亦凡！”炒鞋者聂侬一双原价 1299 元买的球鞋，呼哧一下，以 6999 元的高价卖出。“一双鞋破万跟玩似的”，聂侬说，“我从买鞋到现在快10年了，我都没发现买鞋还能挣钱！”
"Thanks Wu Yifan!" "A pair of shoes for $1299 was bought and sold at a high price of $6999." "A pair of shoes looks like a lot of fun." "I've been buying shoes for almost 10 years now, and I don't even see how I can make a living buying shoes!"
买双鞋也要看K线了
If you buy a pair of shoes, you'll have to look at the Kline.
随着行情逐渐升温，炒鞋由一场小众爱好者的线下抢购狂欢，发展到了线上规模交易。多款“炒鞋”APP甚至推出了行情和实时报价功能。
increases as it warms up, and a small group of fans buys their shoes off the line and trades them on the line of scale.
最近两天，不少人的微博微信都被一张“诡异的K线图”小小地刷了一波屏。
In the last two days, many people's tweets have been painted with a small wave of “a weird K-line map”.
（图源：新浪微博）
(Figure: Sina Weibo)
甚至已经有人利用宏观分析和技术分析理论来研究球鞋价格走势。比如这位，有炒鞋客基于价格图画出了交易圈著名的五浪结构，还要进行“宏观分析”：
Even macro-analytical and techno-analytical theories have been used to study the price trends of sneakers. For example, one of the scaffolders drew a famous five-wave structure of the trading circle based on price diagrams, with a “macro-analysis”:
（图源：新浪微博）
(Figure: Sina Weibo)
还有卖鞋平台根据过去24小时的交易额编制了“炒鞋”三大指数：AJ指数、耐克指数和阿迪达斯指数。球鞋的炒家们每天跟看股市一般紧盯大盘，不同的是鞋类大盘每天涨跌经常两位数朝上。
And the shoe sales platform has developed three indices of “shoes” based on the last 24 hours' turnover: the AJ index, the Nike index, and the Adidas index. The shoe-spillers usually follow the stock market every day, with the difference that the shoe-shoes are up and down every day, often double-digit.
鞋子，迅速由一款普通商品，变成了金融产品。打开某些APP，几乎每双球鞋页面上的用户评论都在渲染看涨或看跌的情绪，很少有讨论球鞋本身的评论出没。
Shoes, quickly turned from an ordinary commodity to a financial product. Opening up some APPs, almost every user comment on a two-shoe page is rehearsing the mood of viewing up or down, and there are very few comments on the sneakers themselves.
现在一场币圈向鞋圈的迁徙正在发生。“投资限量款球鞋，经常会有几倍的收益，入金门槛还特别低。”该数字货币投资者解释背后原因。
is now a currency-to-shoe migration. “Investment limits, there are often several times the return, and the threshold is particularly low.” The digital money investor explains the underlying reasons.
炒鞋电子盘出现后，有比特币圈内人士甚至搞出了鞋市的对应概念，如冰蓝=比特币、闪购=二级市场、明星上脚=大企业合作、限量=永不增发、莆田=盘子、平台=交易所等等。
As a result of the advent of the scaffolding electronic disks, people in the Bitcoin circle even developed the concept of shoe markets, such as ice blue = bitcoin, flash purchase = secondary market, star ups and feet = big business cooperation, limit = never increasing, paddine = plate, platform = exchange, etc.
目前据币圈相关人士透露，知名数字货币交易所COINEX、BBX、ZB等均已开通数字货币，和AJ1倒钩、yeezy、黑满天星等诸多热门球鞋进行交易，并声称可以合约化交易。
At present, according to relevant sources in the currency circles, the well-known digital currency exchange COINEX, BBX, ZB, among others, has opened up digital currency and is trading with a number of popular sneakers such as AJ1, Yeezy, Black Star, and claims that they can be contractually traded.
交易所和整个鞋市的兴起，让币圈大量投机炒作者疯狂涌入鞋市，在相关炒鞋APP上就有不少一款球鞋上市之后一天之内直接暴涨50%的盛况。
The rise of the exchange and of the shoe market as a whole has led to a massive influx of speculators from the currency ring into the shoe market, with a direct surge of 50 per cent in the day following the listing of a large number of shoes on the related shoe.
随着币圈的人大量涌入，炒鞋市场流水飙升，有人给出了一组有趣的数据：8月19日，在成交量前100的球鞋中，26个热门款的成交金额已达到45425万元。
On August 19th, out of 100 shoes before the deal, 26 hotshots reached $454.25 million.
45425万元什么概念？当天新三板9431家公司的成交量仅有38994万元，26种鞋完胜上万支股票，现在的鞋市已经超越了火热一时的新三板。
What is the concept of $454.225 million? On that day, the new three-board 9431 companies had only $3.8994 million in turnover, 26 shoes had won over 10,000 shares, and now the shoe market has gone beyond the hot new three.
是新风口还是割韭菜？
Is it a new mouth or a cut?
在鞋圈，目前存在两种炒作逻辑。一种是通过官方渠道抢鞋，然后在市场售卖赚利差；另一种是通过大量囤货、借热点来提拉价格，比如被吴亦凡穿过的同款球鞋价格立马飙升。
In shoe rings, there are two kinds of ploy logic. One is to grab shoes through official channels and then sell profits on the market; the other is to raise prices through large-scale hoarding and hot spots, such as the price of same-shoes worn by Wu Yafan.
但无论哪种逻辑，本质上都是投机。藏獒、普洱茶、玉石、虫草……过去的各类炒作风波告诉我们，万物皆可炒，只不过这次轮到了鞋子。
But either logic is essentially speculative. Hide-and-seek, tea, limestone, weeds of the past all kinds tell us that everything can be blown up, except this time it's the shoe.
从目前的情况来看，依附于炒鞋类APP存在的球鞋交易市场，几乎就是一个存在于监管真空中的另类投资二级市场。甚至已经发展出了类似期货的衍生工具，具有价格潜在波动性高、平台方缺乏监管等风险。
In the current situation, the market for sneakers, which is dependent on the scaffolding APP, is almost a secondary market for alternative investment, which exists in a regulatory vacuum. Even derivatives like have been developed, with risks of potentially high price volatility and lack of regulation on the platform.
因为每双鞋都是一个独立的交易品种，品种过多会导致交易者分散，每个品种还有不同的码数，“盘子”都很小，交易深度极差。
以某平台销量榜排名第一的鞋款为例，从7月5日至今，这双AIR FORCE共有28260条交易记录，平均每天589条记录，按照该平台每天20小时的交易时间计算，平均每小时仅有不到3条交易记录。
For example, from 5 July to the present date, the two AIR FORCE, with an average of 589 records per day, ranked first in the sales list of a platform, recorded less than 3 transactions per hour, based on 20 hours of transaction time per day.
在上述炒鞋平台中，一旦出现大额交易，价格极易受到拉升或打压。日内波幅最大的鞋款单日涨幅超过100%，就连以波动性著称的比特币都很少会有如此大的振幅。
In the above-mentioned platform, when there is a large trade, prices are extremely vulnerable to pull-ups or pressure. Even bitcoin, which is known for its volatility, is rarely as high as 100 per cent per day.
目前不少平台采用“预售券”和“现货券”等凭证进行炒鞋，与期货的性质十分类似。球鞋交易从传统的卖家直接发货模式转变为平台寄售模式，中间环节彻底黑箱化。
Many platforms currently use “pre-sale vouchers” and “ coupons, which are very similar in nature to futures. The shoe trade has shifted from a traditional vendor-to-sell mode to a platform-to-sending mode, with a completely blacked middle.
尽管据平台方描述，每一张券都对应一件实物商品，但目前并没有相应的监管机构进行监管。
Although each voucher corresponds to a physical commodity as described by the platform, there is currently no corresponding regulatory body to regulate it.
除了平台自己，没有人会知道卖家到底在平台寄存了多少现货，也就更不能知道是否每张券背后都对应着实实在在的一双鞋。他们有可能为了扩大交易规模、赚取流量和手续费而凭空“超发”鞋券。
Apart from the platform itself, no one will know how much cash the sellers have deposited on the platform, let alone whether each ticket is matched by a real pair of shoes. They may be emptied of “over-haired” shoes to expand the scale of the transaction, generate traffic and service charges.
而且，即使平台屯着现货，炒家也不知道这些现货究竟是不是正品。因为球鞋的暴利，加上品牌的控量，大量莆田鞋厂开始做起了假限量鞋的生意。据说，每年都有比正品多出几倍的仿制品混入二级市场。
and even if the platform is on the spot, it's not clear whether the spot is real or not. Because of the booty of football shoes, coupled with brand controls, a large number of shoe factories have started trading in counterfeited shoes. It is said that several times more counterfeits are blended into the secondary market every year.
一双被炒到五六千的球鞋，莆田鞋厂通常会有几个档次的仿品，一般的仿货批发价 150 元，质量好点的 280 元。 如果需要的话，还能提供鞋盒、包装袋以及鉴定证明。
A pair of five or six thousand pairs of sneakers, usually with several simulators, usually with a bulk price of 150 yuan and a better quality of 280 yuan. & nbsp; if necessary, it also provides shoe boxes, bags and identification certificates.
▲莆田高仿的耐克的FF WHITE x Nike Blazer Mid彩虹配色鞋（图源：谷歌图库）
FF WHITE x Nike Blazer Mid rainbow coloured shoes (Figure: Google Library)
一些平台为了证明流通的都是真货，甚至开启了“鉴鞋服务”。然而，平台一边卖鞋，一遍鉴鞋，这种机制的漏洞也存在巨大隐患。
Some platforms have even opened up a “shoes service” to prove that they are in circulation. However, there is a huge risk that this mechanism will be flawed by selling shoes on the side of the platform.
有人说，炒币还不如炒鞋，至少炒鞋不会归零，只会“跌穿”——跌到底了就自己穿。但即使穿到了鞋，我们也不能保证穿到的就是真货。
Some say it's not as good as fried shoes, at least they don't come back with zero, they just fall through -- they fall to the bottom and wear them. But even if we put on shoes, we can't guarantee that what we wear is real.
当然对于热爱投机的人来说，无论是鞋还是币，是真还是假，标的根本就不重要，只要有利可图，就算是空气也都要去炒。
Of course, for those who love speculation, whether shoes or coins are real or false, the labels are not important at all, and even the air is going to burn as long as they are profitable.
最后，无论炒币也好，炒鞋也好，借用索罗斯的经典名言——“要获得财富，做法就是认清其假象，投入其中，然后在假象被公众认识之前退出游戏。”
Finally, regardless of the currency or the shoe, borrow the classic words of Soros — “In order to gain wealth, it is by recognizing its illusions and putting them into it and then withdrawing from the game before it becomes known to the public.”
本文首发于微信公众号：FX168。文章内容属作者个人观点，不代表和讯网立场。投资者据此操作，风险请自担。
The article is based on the author’s personal opinion and does not represent the network’s position.
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