华尔街质疑以太坊ETF需求 全球第二大代币难现狂热涨势？

智通财经获悉，一些华尔街投资机构近日表示，预计不久后首次亮相的美国以太坊ETF需求可能将远远低于比特币现货ETF，这给全球总市值排名第二的加密货币以太坊的价格前景蒙上浓厚阴霾。贝莱德(BlackRock)、富达(Fidelity)等全球顶级资管机构正准备发行以太坊ETF，来自摩根大通的分析师们预计，以太坊ETF的需求可能仅相当于此前强劲的比特币现货ETF需求的一小部分。

Some Wall Street investment agencies have been informed recently that, for the first time in the near future, it is expected that the demand for Ether’s Ether Ether Ether’s Ether Ether’s Ether is likely to fall far short of Bitcoin’s spot EtF, a prospect that the second-largest encrypted currency in the world’s total market value will be dimmed at the price of the ether. Global top regulators such as Black Rock, Fiddleity, and others are preparing to issue ETFs in Taitaya, and analysts from Morgan Chase expect that the demand for ETFs in the Ether Branch could be only a fraction of what was once a strong Bitcot’s spot ETF demand.

贝莱德和富达投资等ETF发行商正在寻求以太坊ETF获批上市，他们都在焦急等待美国证券交易委员会(SEC)的最终正式批准。来自华尔街大行摩根大通的分析师们预计，以太坊ETF的净流入规模将远远低于今年流入比特币ETF的高达153亿美元全球资金。

ETF distributors, such as Belede and Fuda, are seeking approval for ETA ETF, and they are anxiously waiting for the final formal approval of the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC). Analysts from Morgan Chase, Wall Street, expect that the net ETF inflows will be much smaller than the $15.3 billion in global funds that will flow to Bitcoin this year.

成立仅仅五个月的比特币ETF受益于一种有争议的说法，即将这种市场规模领先的代币称为“数字黄金”，而以太坊却缺乏这种说法。以太坊相关基金也不会为区块链维护提供所谓的“质押奖励”，这种质押回报可以通过直接持有标的代币来利用。

The establishment of the five-month-old Bitcoin ETF benefits from the controversial claim that the market’s leading tokens are called “digital gold,” which is lacking in the Tails. Nor will the relevant funds provide so-called “mart awards” for block maintenance, which can be used for the return of the pledge through direct possession of the tokens.

来自BTC Markets Pty的首席执行官卡罗琳·鲍勒表示:“以太坊没有类似比特币的知名度。”她补充表示，比特币的市值高达1.4万亿美元，是以太坊的三倍。“我预计它不会产生同样的影响。”

Chief Executive Officer Caroline Baller from BTC Markets Pty said: “Etheria has no reputation similar to Bitcoin.” She added that Bitcoin had a market value of $1.4 trillion, three times that of Taicha. “I don't expect it to have the same effect.”

令人惊讶的转折点

/strang'

对于关注以太坊的投资者们来说来说，令人惊讶的转折点在于，美国证券交易委员会(SEC)上个月出人意料地转向同意初步批准以太坊现货ETF，此前在2023年法院撤销裁决后，该委员会仅仅勉强允许比特币现货ETF。这一转变大幅推高了以太坊的交易价格，但是在过去一年里，以太坊109%的涨幅仍落后于比特币169%的惊人涨幅，其中包括比特币在3月份创下的历史新高。

For investors interested in Etheria, the surprising turning point was that last month the United States Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) had unexpectedly turned to agreeing to an initial approval of Ether's spot ETF, after the Court had set aside its award in 2023, and that the Commission had only reluctantly allowed Bitcoin's spot ETF. This shift pushed the prices of Ether's transactions up significantly, but over the past year, the 109% increase in Etherayas has lagged behind the alarming 169% increase in Bitcoin, including the new height of Bitcoin's history, which was created in March.

北京时间5月24日凌晨，SEC意外批准了多家ETF发行商的以太坊现货ETF 19b-4表格申请，包括贝莱德、富达以及灰度。然而，尽管这些表格已获批准，ETF发行商们还需要等待S-1注册声明生效后才能开始在美股市场进行交易。SEC目前已开始与发行商们讨论S-1表格相关细节。虽然具体时间尚不明确，但分析师们普遍推测这个过程可能需要大约一个月。

In the early hours of May 24, Beijing time, the SEC unexpectedly approved applications for ETF 19b-4 forms from several ETF distributors, including Belede, Fuda, and Greyscale. However, despite the approval of these forms, ETF distributors will have to wait for the S-1 registration declaration to come into effect before they start trading in the US stock market.

以分析师Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou为首的摩根大通分析团队预计，未来的以太坊投资组合规模将在今年剩余时间内吸引“适度”高达的10亿至30亿美元的净流入。Bloomberg Intelligence 资深ETF分析师Eric Balchunas则表示，这些产品可能难以获得美国比特币ETF资产的大约20%，目前美国全部比特币ETF资产规模高达625亿美元。

The Morgan Chase team, headed by analyst Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou, predicts that the future size of the Pacific investment portfolio will attract a modest net inflow of $1 billion to $3 billion for the rest of the year. Eric Balchunas, a senior ETF analyst at Bloomberg Intelligence, has indicated that these products may be difficult to access about 20% of the US-bitcoin ETF assets, and the current size of all of the United States-bitcoin ETF assets is as high as $62.5 billion.

不同市场中的比特币与以太坊ETF资产，差距非常大

来自加密货币领军者K33 research的高级研究分析师维特尔·伦德(Vetle Lunde)属于乐观派。他预计，前五个月将有高达40亿美元的净流入规模，他还预计“巨大的供应吸收冲击”将大幅提振以太坊价格。

The senior research analyst from the encrypt currency leader K33 Research is an optimist. He predicts a net inflow of up to $4 billion in the first five months, and he anticipates that the “big supply absorbs shocks” will boost the prices of the talisman significantly.

与此同时，正在寻求推出以太坊ETF的基金管理公司VanEck看到了该代币基础的以太坊区块链在加密金融服务等应用领域的受欢迎程度。

At the same time, Van Eckk, the fund manager that is seeking to launch the ETA ETF, sees the popularity of the ETA block chain, which is based on that token, in applications such as encryption financial services.

VanEck数字资产研究主管Matthew Sigel表示:“随着时间的推移，我们预计投资者会得出这样的结论:以太坊生态系统的应用规模和创新潜力可能比比特币系统大得多。”

According to Matthew Sigel, Director of Digital Assets Research at Van Eck, “We expect investors to come to the conclusion over time that the scale of application and the potential for innovation in the Taiwan ecosystem may be much greater than in the bitcoin system.”

套利者可能不断退出，进而重创以太坊

The arbitrage of

1月11日，9只首批美国比特币ETF上市交易后，比特币最初大幅下跌，同一天，十多年前成立的灰度比特币信托(Grayscale Bitcoin Trust)——当时最大规模的此类投资组合——从封闭式结构转换为ETF。

On 11 January, after the first nine United States Bitcoin ETFs were listed, Bitcoin first fell significantly, and on the same day, the Grayscale Bitcoin Trust, the largest portfolio of such investments at that time, was transformed from a closed structure to an ETF.

这一最初的回落反映出对潜在购买需求的不确定性，以及灰度基金的资金不断获利流出，因为套利者们从该投资组合的单位价格相对于资产净值的折让中获利，该折让数值在该基金成为ETF资产后结束。

This initial fall reflects uncertainty about potential purchase needs and the continued outflow of the grey scale fund's funds, as arbitrators benefit from the unit price of the portfolio versus the net value of assets, which ends when the fund becomes an ETF asset.

但是最终，对新ETF的强劲需求盖过了灰度基金的资金外流规模，比特币价格也重新走高。

In the end, however, strong demand for new ETFs exceeded the size of the greyscale fund's outflow, and Bitcoin prices rose again.

这一次，灰度投资打算将其110亿美元的以太坊产品转换为ETF类别。与比特币ETF最初的情况一样，套利者们可能会离开最大规模的以太坊相关基金。

This time, the greyscale investment is intended to convert its 11 billion dollars into the ETF category. As was initially the case with the Bitcoin ETF, arbitrators may leave the largest ETA-related fund.

加密货币研究公司Kaiko表示，一旦以太坊ETF获批上市，灰度基金的赎回规模对以太坊价格造成的大范围“抛售压力”是一个合理的价格预期，但潜在资金流出对整体加密货币市场的影响尚不清楚。

The crypto-currency research company Kaiko stated that the size of the Greyscale Fund was a reasonable price expectation for the extensive “sale pressure” imposed by the Taiyo price once it was approved for sale with the Taiyo ETF, but that the impact of potential financial outflows on the overall crypto-currency market was not clear.

以太坊周四在伦敦的交易价格为3847美元。虽然比特币仍有望创下新的历史纪录，但以太坊距离新冠疫情时期加密货币超级牛市期间创下的4866美元的历史峰值还有一段距离。

At a transaction price of $3847 in London on Thursday, Taiga. Although Bitcoin is still expected to make a new historical record, it is still some distance from the historic peak of $4,866 that was created during the period of the new crown’s encrypted currency, the El Niño Supermarket.

ByteTree Asset Management包括首席投资官查理?莫里斯(Charlie Morris)在内的一个团队在一份报告中写道:“全球投资者对以太坊的热情长期以来不温不火，多年来他们一直可以通过欧洲和加拿大获得以太坊。”

A team of ByteTree Asset Management, including Chief Investment Officer Charlie Morris, wrote in a report: “Global investors' enthusiasm for Etheria has long been unheated, and they have been able to acquire Ether through Europe and Canada for many years.”

以太坊ETF获批后不一定利好以太坊：或将触发代币集中度过高风险

may not be good for Ether after ETF approval: sets the trigger on a high risk.

即使以太坊ETF正式发行上市后需求乐观，可能也难以提振以太坊这一标的资产的价格走势。知名评级机构标普全球(S&P Global)曾发布报告警告称，美国证券监管机构批准以太坊现货ETF(Ether ETF)的这一市场预期可能将加剧以太坊生态系统的过度集中度问题，对于以太坊(ETH)价格走势来说甚至可能产生负面效应，主要因为批准预期或者实际批准后大概率将质押以太坊代币保留在少数供应商手中。

Even if the demand is optimistic after it is officially released, it may be difficult to boost the price of the assets that are the subject of Taiyana. A well-known rating agency, S&P Global, has issued a report warning that US securities regulators’ approval of the market with the Taiwan spot ETF may be expected to exacerbate the problem of excessive concentration of the ecosystem and may even have a negative effect on the performance of the Ether (ETH) prices, mainly because of expectations or the likely retention of the pledge in a small number of suppliers at the time of approval.

来自标普全球的分析师Andrew O 'Neill和Alexandre Birry表示，此类代币的ETF规模“可能变得足够大，以至于改变以太坊网络中的验证器集中度”;反过来，这可能将使得以太坊网络暴露于操作风险之中，例如单点故障导致的不活动，或恶意串通。

Andrew O'Neill and Alexandre Birry, analysts from the pamphlet world, say that the ETF size of such tokens “may become large enough to alter the concentration of the authentication devices in the e-Taiwan network”; this, in turn, may make it possible for the network to be exposed to operational risks, such as inactivity due to a single point failure, or malicious collusion.

风靡全球的加密货币交易所Coinbase Global Inc.已经是以太坊网络中第二大验证者(或者说将区块验证为区块链的提供商)，控制着约14%份额的质押以太坊。标普全球的分析师们引用Dune Analytics和Rated数据写道，顶级提供商Lido则控制着高达31.7%份额的质押以太坊代币。

Coinbase Global Inc., a world-wide crypto-currency exchange, has been the second-largest certifier (or provider of block chains) in the Taiwan network, controlling around 14% of pledges to the Taiku. Global analysts cite Dune Analytics and Raded data, and Lido, a top provider, controls up to 31.7% of pledges to the Taiwani currency.

发行以太坊ETF的美国投资机构更有可能选择Coinbase等大型加密货币机构为专门的数字资产托管机构，而避开Lido等去中心化协议平台。分析师们写道，如果Coinbase占据了相当大的质押以太坊代币份额，这意味着以太坊的集中度风险越来越大。

The U.S. investment agencies that issue the Taiwan ETF are more likely to choose large encrypted money institutions such as Coinbase as specialized digital asset custodians than Lido and others to decentralize the protocol platform. Analysts write that if Coinbase holds a significant share of pledges in Taiyin coins, this means that there is a growing risk of concentration in Taiyin.

他们写道，Coinbase已经是美国以外四家大规模押注以太坊ETF中的三家发行份额提供商之一。对于最近批准的比特币ETF,，Coinbase是发行方中最受欢迎的加密货币资产托管选择。总体而言，标普全球的分析师们认为锚定以太坊的ETF产品对以太坊集中度的影响，将取决于发行人是否将其代币质押份额分散给多个加密货币托管机构。

For the recently approved Bitcoin ETF, Coinbase is one of the most popular encrypt currency asset hosting options for issuers. Overall, pamphlet global analysts believe that the impact of anchoring ETF products on Ether concentration will depend on whether the issuer spread its currency pledge share to multiple encrypted money custodians.