年内价格已翻番 比特币突破40000美元指日可待？

随着2023年接近尾声，价格已经翻番的比特币能否突破40000美元成为了众多加密货币投机者最关心的问题。

As 2023 draws to a close, the ability of the four hundred thousand dollars that have already doubled in the price of bitcoins has become a major concern for a large number of crypto-currency speculators.

自2022年加密货币崩盘以来，这一最大的数字资产在过去11个月里反弹了约130%，超过了股票或黄金等投资。对美联储明年降息的希望，以及美国即将批准首只现货比特币ETF上市的预期，激发了市场强烈的乐观情绪。

Since the encrypted currency collapse in 2022, this largest digital asset has rebounded by about 130% over the past 11 months, exceeding investments in stocks or gold. Hopes that the Fed will reduce interest rates next year, as well as the expectation that the US will approve the first spot bitcoin ETF to be marketed, inspires strong optimism in the market.

比特币此次涨势经历了美国加强对加密货币行业的监管，例如Sam Bankman-Fried因在FTX的欺诈行为而入狱。对于乐观主义者来说，遏制行业内可疑做法的努力和最近ETF申请的热潮表明，加密货币行业正在成熟，有可能被更广泛地采用。

For optimists, efforts to curb suspicious practices in the industry and the recent surge in ETF applications suggest that the encryption money industry is maturing and is likely to be used more widely.

City Index Ltd．高级金融市场分析师Fiona Cincotta表示：“（比特币）达到40000美元，只需要现货比特币ETF获得批准。”她补充道，比特币最近失去了一些上涨动力，在一定程度上是因为股票和汇市的大幅波动吸引了投资者的注意力。

City Index Ltd., a high-level financial market analyst, Fiona Cincotta, said: “(bitcoin) has to be approved by the spot Bitcoin ETF.” She added that Bitcoin had recently lost some of its upward momentum, in part because large stock and exchange market fluctuations attracted investors' attention.

Bloomberg Intelligence预计，一批美国现货比特币ETF将在明年1月前获得美国证券交易委员会（SEC）的批准。虽然市场对利率押注的重新调整或ETF的意外混乱可能会破坏比特币涨势，但就目前而言，市场情绪依然乐观。

Bloomberg Intelligence predicts that a group of US spot bitcoin ETFs will be approved by the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) by January next year. While market readjustments of interest rate bets or unexpected disruptions in ETFs may undermine Bitcoins’ upturn, market sentiment remains optimistic for the time being.

全球持有比特币最多的上市公司MicroStrategy（MSTR.US）上个月又买入了价值5.93亿美元的比特币，使其总额达到约65亿美元。Galaxy Digital Holdings Ltd．创始人Michael Novogratz周三表示，比特币一年后可能会达到2021年接近6.9万美元的峰值。

The world’s largest listed company, MicroStrategy (MSTR.US), bought another $593 million worth of bitcoins last month, bringing it to about $6.5 billion. Michael Novogratz, founder of Galaxy Digital Holdings Ltd., said that Bitcoins might reach its peak of nearly $690 million in 2021 in a year.

技术分析

Technical analysis

从技术层面分析，比特币的每周相对强度指数（RSI）上周收于75以上，虽然高于70的读数被视为“超买”的信号，但情况可能并没有那么简单。在过去的十年里，在每周RSI超过75之后，该代币在接下来的一个月里平均上涨了15%——这一涨幅将使其远远超过40000美元。

At the technical level, the weekly relative strength index (RSI) of Bitcoin received more than 75 per week last week, although readings above 70 are regarded as a “overpurchase” signal, the situation may not be as simple. Over the last decade, after the weekly RSI exceeded 75, the currency rose by an average of 15% in the following month – a rise that would make it far more than $40,000.

不过，MACD指标（一种试图捕捉资产走势背后动力的技术指标）显示出比特币最近走势的减弱，从柱状线的跨度来看，该指标的读数为负值。与此同时，比特币最近也一直难以突破38000美元。

However, the MACD indicator (a technical indicator that tries to capture the driving force behind asset movements) shows a decline in the recent movement of Bitcoin, which is negative in terms of the length of the column line. At the same time, Bitcoin has recently been unable to break through $38,000.

IG Australia Pty市场分析师Tony Sycamore表示，比特币曾多次尝试站上38000美元。但“每次突破都失败了。尽管如此，我确实认为比特币很有可能会突破40000美元，要么是在ETF宣布之后，要么是风险资产在年底前恢复上涨”。

IG Australia Pty market analyst Tony Sycamore said that Bitcoin had tried several times to stand on $38,000. But “every breakthrough failed. Nevertheless, I do believe that Bitcoin is likely to make a breakthrough of $40,000, either after the ETF announcement or risk assets return to rising by the end of the year”.

期权状况

Status of options

期权市场方面，根据Deribit数据显示，比特币期权的仓位暗示该代币12月大概率在37000美元至40000美元波动。鉴于卖出执行价为40000美元的牛市看涨期权的交易员显然愿意接受另一方的押注，这表明这一水平将成为比特币复苏的关键测试区域。

With regard to the options market, according to Deribit data, the position of the Bitcoin options implies that the currency will fluctuate between $37,000 and $40,000 in December. Given the apparent willingness of traders who sell up-scaling options for the 40,000-dollar cattle market, this suggests that this level will be a key test area for Bitcoins’ recovery.

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