对币圈后基础设施时代的思考
作者：Allen Ding 鼎，无为资本合伙人 来源：X，@0x_Allending
刚刚，许多朋友向我询问如何在美国股市投资，答案简单明了： 最近几个月，加密货币市场缺乏明显的交易机会（当然，如果你擅长做空，那就当我没说）。就赚钱机会而言，最近一段时间美国股市比加密货币市场更具吸引力，尤其对于像我这样已经建立仓位并视beta为王的投资者而言。 未来几个月如果只专注于加密货币市场二级机会，很可能是在浪费时间。就我看来，一级市场的机会可能比二级市场更少，一些已经有确定性退出机会的项目正在一级市场进行收割。因此，我已经有一段时间没有进行交易了，好像上次是在 @puffer_finance。
当前，加密货币市场陷入了尴尬境地，实际上，这种状态已经持续了一段时间。基础设施层面的创新已经不存在，未来这种创新出现的概率越来越低。看看由顶级风投领投的那些项目，你就会明白，要么是用于抢占市场份额，要么是创造虚无概念，根本没有让人兴奋的东西出现。如果说要追求情绪炒作，那就是购买“meme”资产，为什么不购买流动性更好、引起更大范围FOMO（恐慌买入）的资产呢？没错，我指的就是美国股市中的“meme”资产，比如GME。
最近，我一直在与圈内朋友分享一个观点，即当前的加密货币市场可能已经处于2000-2005年的互联网阶段。那个时候是什么情况呢？基础设施已经很拥挤，应用层公司开始崛起，联网用户数量爆发增长，流量变得越来越贵。谷歌、亚马逊、腾讯、阿里等公司基本上是从那个时期开始迅速成长的。这个路径是必然的，因为最终用户只会与应用产生黏性，只有应用能够长期吸引流量的价值。如果缺乏繁荣的上层应用，基础协议离大规模采用还有很长的路要走。因此，我认为： 在应用层大战中脱颖而出的基础设施将会获得成功。
实际上，最近我一直感到焦虑，因为大家都知道我一直自称是亚洲以太坊多军总司令，但根据我上面的思考，我现在对以太坊的未来感到非常担忧。主要原因是我看不到在以太坊上出现杀手级应用的必然性。
商业场景如果与区块链深度结合，必然是建立在公链方和应用方深度合作的基础上。但目前，以太坊的路线明显是专注于推动极致的去中心化和密码学安全性。理论上没有问题，这非常符合加密货币的本质，也非常强调去中心化，所以在DeFi场景下，以太坊仍然是大资金的首选。但商业场景有很多种，特别是与用户日常生活更相关的应用场景，如游戏、社交、电子商务、娱乐，甚至是许多具有高DAU（日活跃用户）的细分领域。这些创业者需要的是人情味、利益交换、资源互补、主动合作和相互支持。
显然，在这方面，以太坊生态系统显得有些孤立。以太坊基金会对于那些超出其计划范围的“意外创新”缺乏兴趣，这对于生态系统的繁荣和吸引新开发者加入非常不利。
以交易所背景的公链为例，它们往往会为项目方提供各种生态合作，包括投资、活动赞助、钱包服务、流量支持、上市等一揽子服务。
对于其他公链，它们的BD和市场人员（甚至是创始人）更加积极，对早期项目提供更多支持。我投资的 @fansland_io，在举办曼谷音乐节后，有五家公链主动联系，希望就下一场音乐节进行合作，其中一些甚至准备用资金来支持。
最后，可能有人会问我是否要放弃以太坊。答案是：
不会。目前，以太坊仍然具有很大的综合优势，但是。
应用层的爆发将是获得更广泛共识的关键。因此，在未来的加密货币市场中，谁拥有应用，谁就拥有天下。
Author Ding Wuwei Capital Partner Source Just now, many friends asked me how to invest in the US stock market. The answer is simple and clear. In recent months, the cryptocurrency market lacks obvious trading opportunities. Of course, if you are good at shorting, forget that I said that in terms of making money opportunities, the US stock market is more attractive than the cryptocurrency market recently, especially for investors like me who have established positions and are regarded as kings. If you only focus on the cryptocurrency market in the next few months, the secondary opportunities are likely to be. Waste of time. In my opinion, there may be fewer opportunities in the primary market than in the secondary market. Some projects with certain exit opportunities are being harvested in the primary market, so I haven't traded for some time. It seems that the last time I was in an embarrassing situation in the current cryptocurrency market. In fact, this state has been going on for some time. Innovation at the infrastructure level no longer exists, and the probability of such innovation is getting lower and lower in the future. Look at those projects led by top venture capitalists, you will understand. Either to seize market share or to create a nihilistic concept, there is nothing exciting at all. If we want to pursue emotional hype, it is to buy assets. Why not buy assets that are more liquid and cause widespread panic? Yes, I mean assets in the US stock market. For example, I have been sharing an idea with my friends in the circle recently that the current cryptocurrency market may have been in the Internet stage in 2000. What was the situation at that time? The infrastructure was already crowded. Application layer companies began to rise, the number of connected users exploded, and the traffic became more and more expensive. Google, Amazon, Tencent, Ali and other companies basically grew rapidly from that period. This path is inevitable, because end users will only be sticky with applications, and only applications can attract traffic for a long time. If there is a lack of prosperous upper-layer application basic protocols, there is still a long way to go before large-scale adoption, so I think the infrastructure that stands out in the application layer war will be successful and practical. Recently, I have been anxious, because everyone knows that I have always claimed to be the commander-in-chief of the multi-armies of the Asian Ethereum, but according to my above thinking, I am very worried about the future of the Ethereum. The main reason is that I can't see the inevitability of killer applications in the Ethereum. If the business scene is deeply integrated with the blockchain, it must be based on the deep cooperation between the public chain and the application side. However, the current route of the Ethereum is obviously focused on promoting the ultimate decentralization and cryptography security theory. There is no problem in the world, which is very in line with the essence of cryptocurrency and emphasizes decentralization, so Ethereum is still the first choice for large funds in the scene, but there are many kinds of business scenes, especially those more related to users' daily life, such as games, social activities, e-commerce entertainment and even many sub-sectors with high-day active users. What these entrepreneurs need is human interests, exchange of resources, mutual complementarity, active cooperation and mutual support. Obviously, the Ethereum ecosystem is somewhat isolated in this respect. The foundation lacks interest in unexpected innovations beyond its planned scope, which is very unfavorable for the prosperity of the ecosystem and attracting new developers to join. Take the public chains with exchange background as an example, they often provide various ecological cooperation for the project parties, including investment activities, sponsorship of wallet services, traffic support for listing and other packages of services. For other public chains, their market personnel and even founders are more active in providing more support for early projects. I invested in five public chains after the Bangkok Music Festival. Take the initiative to contact and hope to cooperate on the next music festival, some of which are even ready to use funds to support it. Finally, someone may ask me whether to give up Ethereum. The answer isno. At present, Ethereum still has great comprehensive advantages, but the explosion of application layer will be the key to gain a wider consensus, so whoever owns the application will own the world in the future cryptocurrency market. 比特币今日价格行情网_okx交易所app_永续合约_比特币怎么买卖交易_虚拟币交易所平台
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