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In the first issue of the macro-thinking series, we will discuss the concerns related to stagflation and its impact on growth assets such as cryptocurrency. Although some indicators show that economic growth is slowing down and inflation remains high, we think that considering strong domestic demand and moderate wage growth, stagflation concerns may be exaggerated. The possibility of raising interest rates this year or the Fed not cutting interest rates is not nonexistent, but it seems unlikely that encryption will occur. The recent correction in the money market may not be completely negative because it has prepared the market for more sustainable growth. In addition, despite the price correction, the cryptocurrency market has risen so far this year, and the market has been brewing concerns about the potential stagflation risk in the United States. Investors pointed out that persistent inflation and disappointing economic growth are indicators of stagflation risk. Is this worth worrying about? In the first issue of the macro thinking series, we will study economic growth and inflation in depth. The driving factors of inflation and our views on the impact of cryptocurrency and other growth assets are elaborated in detail. Stagflation is a nightmare for policy makers. Stagflation is an economic situation characterized by slow economic growth, high unemployment rate and persistent inflation. Because it is difficult for traditional monetary policy to deal with inflation and unemployment at the same time, this situation is very difficult. For example, lowering interest rates to stimulate consumer spending and investment will usually promote economic growth and create more employment opportunities, but this may lead to The further rise in inflation has brought unexpected consequences. The recent economic data have aggravated the worries of stagflation. The latest data show that the GDP growth in the first quarter of the United States is far below analysts' expectations and close to a two-year low. In addition, the core personal consumption expenditure price index, the Fed's preferred inflation measure, rose in the first quarter, which is higher than the increase in the previous quarter and higher than the target chart set by the Fed. The fear of accelerating inflation and stagnating inflation may be exaggerated. Although recent economic data show signs of slowing growth and high inflation, they can't reflect the whole situation. The main reason is that the first quarter was lower than expected. The fluctuation factors related to the increase of inventory and the surge of imports are often revised. However, domestic demand remains strong, excluding inventory trade and government expenditure. The domestic private economy has increased, and economic data show that inflation in the United States is a problem or temporarily slowed down. 比特币今日价格行情网_okx交易所app_永续合约_比特币怎么买卖交易_虚拟币交易所平台

根据最新的经济数据，美国经济增长在第一季度仅增长了1%，虽然低于市场预期，但内需保持了一定的弹性。

还有一些迹象表明劳动力市场正在降温。具体而言，最新的就业报告显示，截至 4 月的 12 个月中，平均时薪增长了 3.9%，这是自2021年以来最小的工资增长。虽然失业率有所上升，但仍保持在4%以下。招聘步伐放缓和薪酬增长降低了通胀压力以及潜在的薪资-物价螺旋式上升的担忧。

劳动力市场放缓的迹象，使人们希望美联储能够为经济实现“软着陆”，降低膨胀的可能性。在最新的一次联邦公开市场委员会（FOMC）新闻发布会上，美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔表示，并不认同停滞膨胀的说法。

接下来会发生什么？

由于经济增长和通胀数据低于市场最初预期，一些市场参与者开始怀疑美联储今年是否会完全不降息，甚至可能被迫考虑加息。

虽然这两种情况都有一定可能性，但我们认为目前可能性不大。

先说点简单的 - 加息会发生吗？

不太可能。大多数美联储官员认为目前的利率已经足够高，并预计下一次行动将是降息。

如果降息进一步推迟或今年没有发生怎么办？

市场目前预计今年将降息两次，首次降息预计将在9月进行。这标志着与今年年初市场预期最多降息6次相比发生了重大转变。

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