180万枚「丢失」的比特币有多少真的消失了？-比特币官网

作者：Jeff John Roberts，财富杂志；编译：Luffy，Foresight News

4 月 15 日，一个沉睡了 14 年的比特币钱包苏醒。钱包所有者向 Coinbase 发送了 50 枚比特币，从这些曾经一文不值的比特币中获利超过 300 万美元。这样的交易不常见，但也并非独一无二。几乎每周都会有早期比特币钱包苏醒，这引发了一个问题：还有多少推测中已经丢失的比特币可以重新流通。《财富》和 Chainalysis 的一项新调查提供了一些见解。

图表显示 2018 年以来丢失的比特币数量变化

如上图所示，数十万「丢失」的比特币（Chainalysis 将其定义为自 2014 年以来一直未动的比特币）在过去几年中重新流通。该图显示了四种不同规模的钱包中比特币总量的净变化，包括持有少于 50 枚比特币的钱包和持有 1,000 枚或更多比特币的钱包。其中，「少于 50 枚」类别占旧比特币钱包的绝大多数，如下图所示。

图表显示了丢失的比特币钱包的明细

两张图都表明，包含 50 枚比特币的旧钱包数量不成比例。这反映了这样一个事实：在比特币早期，区块奖励是 50 个。（此后，一系列「减半」事件导致奖励减少到 25、12.5、6.25 枚，就在上周，奖励减少到 3.25 枚比特币）。

现在，每天开采的比特币数量还不到最早时候的 10%，早期钱包（其中许多钱包里藏有巨额财富）可能会引起更大的兴趣。

1210 亿美元

那些对加密货币只是偶尔感兴趣的人可能会惊讶地发现，大约有 175 万个比特币钱包在十年或更长时间以来一直处于完全沉睡状态，其中许多钱包里有大量资金。截至 3 月中旬，这些钱包（不包括与比特币创始人中本聪相关的约 30,000 个钱包）包含 1,798,681 枚比特币，如今价值约 1210 亿美元。

这 180 万枚「丢失」的比特币约占比特币总供应量 2100 万枚（其中 93% 已经被开采）的 8.5%。在大多数情况下，不可能确切知道某个钱包的去向，但可以肯定的是，很多钱包中比特币确实永远丢失了。在比特币的早期，这种加密货币几乎一文不值，直到 2011 年比特币的价格才突破 1 美元大关。因此许多收到比特币的人可能已经完全忘记了它，或者没有费心去保存打开钱包所需的私钥。在 2012 年之前，像 Coinbase 这样为用户保管私钥的公司还不存在，因此丢失钥匙的情况尤其常见。

但并非所有闲置钱包都已丢失或被遗弃。比特币以其庞大的「HODLers」而闻名，这些「HODLers」发誓永远不会出售其储备（或至少会长期持有）。正是这些人（用加密货币术语来说，他们拥有「钻石手」）管理着自 2018 年以来活跃的少数钱包。

那么他们为什么要抛售呢？Chainalysis 对新活跃钱包的分析发现，比特币价格变化与特定一周的钱包活动之间存在统计上显著的相关性。然而，大多数时候，钱包活动的增加似乎与明显的外部事件无关。

总体而言，旧钱包的激活速度似乎可以预测。例如，3 月 25 日当周，出现了一个典型模式，172 个长期闲置的钱包开始活跃起来，其中 169 个钱包中的比特币少于 50 枚，还有一个钱包中的比特币超过 1,000 枚。许多比特币持有者拥有不止一个钱包，尤其是那些在 2014 年之前就已拥有钱包的人，因此当周激活钱包的人数可能远低于 172 人。

变数：中本聪的 110 万比特币

Chainalysis 的调查数据表明，旧钱包将继续以稳定但缓慢的速度被唤醒，直到丢失的比特币数量基本稳定下来：大概在 150 万左右。

不过，我们可以想象，未来钱包觉醒的速度会加快。也就是说，当 2014 年之前的 HODLers 变老并将长期持有的比特币遗赠给他们的孩子，而他们的孩子又会出售这些比特币时，这种情况可能会发生。然而，这样的事件仍需数十年时间，因为大多数早期的比特币持有者都只有 20 多岁或 30 多岁。

最后，上述「丢失」的比特币数量不包括中本聪控制的钱包，根据 Chainalysis 的估计，中本聪拥有约 110 万枚比特币。《财富》杂志最近发布的一份关于中本聪财富（价值约 750 亿美元）的报告发现，大多数长期关注加密货币的人认为，这位比特币创造者早已成为神话，他们极有可能永远不会动用自己的钱包。

如果真是这样，那么目前丢失的比特币总数约为 290 万枚，占总供应量的近 14%。从长远来看，最好的结果是这些比特币成为永远找不到的失落宝藏。

A bitcoin wallet that has been sleeping for years wakes up. The owner of the wallet sent a bitcoin to make a profit of more than 10,000 dollars from these once worthless bitcoins. This kind of transaction is not common, but it is not unique. Almost every week, early bitcoin wallets wake up, which raises a question. How many supposedly lost bitcoins can be recycled? A new survey provides some insights. How many lost bitcoins have really disappeared? The chart shows the changes in the number of lost bitcoins since, as shown in the above figure. Hundreds of thousands of lost bitcoins are defined as bitcoins that have not been moved since, and have been re-circulated in the past few years. The chart shows the net changes in the total amount of bitcoins in four wallets of different sizes, including wallets with less than 10 bitcoins and wallets with 10 or more bitcoins, of which less than 10 thousand bitcoins account for the vast majority of old bitcoin wallets, as shown in the following figure. How many of the 10 thousand lost bitcoins have really disappeared is shown in the chart. The two pictures show the details of the lost bitcoin wallet, both of which show that the number of old wallets containing bitcoins is disproportionate, which reflects the fact that in the early days of bitcoin, the block reward was a halving event, which led to the reduction of the reward to bitcoins just last week, and now the number of bitcoins mined every day is less than that of the earliest early wallets, many of which contained huge wealth, which may arouse greater interest. Those who are only interested in cryptocurrencies are only occasionally. Some people may be surprised to find that there are about 10,000 bitcoin wallets that have been completely asleep for ten years or more. Many of them have a lot of money in them. As of the middle of the month, these wallets do not include about one wallet related to the founder of Bitcoin, Satoshi Nakamoto. Now it is worth about 100 million dollars. These 10,000 lost bitcoins account for about 10,000 of the total supply of bitcoins. In most cases, it is impossible to know exactly where a wallet is going, but what is certain is that. Bitcoin in many wallets is indeed lost forever. In the early days of Bitcoin, this cryptocurrency was almost worthless until the price of Bitcoin broke through the US dollar mark in, so many people who received Bitcoin may have completely forgotten it or didn't bother to save the private key needed to open the wallet. Years ago, companies that kept private keys for users like this didn't exist, so it is especially common to lose keys, but not all idle wallets have been lost or abandoned. Bitcoin is famous for its huge size. It is these people who swear that they will never sell their reserves or at least hold them for a long time. In cryptocurrency terms, they own diamond hands and manage a few wallets that have been active since 2000. So why do they sell them? The analysis of newly active wallets shows that there is a statistically significant correlation between bitcoin price changes and wallet activities in a specific week. However, most of the time, the increase in wallet activities seems to have nothing to do with obvious external events. On the whole, the activation speed of old wallets seems to be predictable. For example, a typical pattern appeared in the week of March, and a long-term idle wallet began to become active. Among them, there were less than one bitcoin in one wallet and more than one bitcoin in one wallet. Many bitcoin holders owned more than one wallet, especially those who had their wallets before the year, so the number of people who activated their wallets in that week may be far lower than the human variable. The survey data of Satoshi Nakamoto's 10,000 bitcoins show that the old wallets will continue to be awakened at a steady but slow speed until the number of lost bitcoins. The amount has basically stabilized at around 10,000, but we can imagine that the speed of wallet awakening will be accelerated in the future, that is to say, this situation may happen when they get old before that year and bequeath their long-held bitcoins to their children, and their children will sell them. However, it will still take decades for such an event, because most early bitcoin holders are only in their early years or so. Finally, the number of lost bitcoins does not include the estimates based on the wallet controlled by Satoshi Nakamoto. Satoshi Nakamoto has about 10,000 bitcoins. A recent report on the wealth of Satoshi Nakamoto, which is worth about 100 million US dollars, found that most people who have been paying attention to cryptocurrency for a long time think that this bitcoin creator has long been a myth, and they will probably never use their wallets. If this is the case, the total number of bitcoins lost at present is about 10,000, accounting for nearly the total supply. In the long run, the best result is that these bitcoins will become lost treasures that will never be found. 比特币今日价格行情网_okx交易所app_永续合约_比特币怎么买卖交易_虚拟币交易所平台

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