以太坊现货ETF悬了？

作者：赵昊 Author: Zhao Hao

据媒体报道，四名知情人士透露，美国发行人等公司预计，美国证券交易委员会（SEC）将会拒绝他们推出以太坊现货ETF的申请。According to media reports, four informed sources revealed that US issuers and other companies expect the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) to reject their applications to launch Ethereum spot ETFs.

先前，VanEck、ARK Investment Management和另外七家发行人先后向SEC提交了与以太坊价格挂钩ETF的上市申请，SEC须分别在5月23日和5月24日就VanEck和ARK的文件做出回应决定。Previously, VanEck, ARK Investment Management, and seven other issuers have submitted applications to the SEC for Ethereum price-linked ETFs, with the SEC due to respond to VanEck and ARK's files on May 23 and May 24, respectively.

知情人士们透露，最近几次SEC和发行人之间的会议并不乐观，因为机构工作人员没有讨论有关该金融产品的执行细节，与先前关于比特币现货ETF时密集且详细的讨论形成了鲜明对比。Informed sources revealed that recent meetings between the SEC and issuers have been pessimistic because institutional staff did not discuss the execution details of the financial product, in stark contrast to the intensive and detailed discussions on Bitcoin spot ETFs in the past.

去年10月，SEC批准推出了几只以太坊“期货”ETF。知情人士表示，发行人在会议上认为这一决定已经为以太坊“现货”ETF铺平了道路，并向SEC表达了解决潜在监管问题的决心。Last October, the SEC approved several Ethereum "futures" ETFs. Informed sources stated that issuers believed that this decision had paved the way for Ethereum "spot" ETFs and expressed determination to address potential regulatory issues with the SEC.

但在听完发行人的说法后，SEC没有详细说明具体的担忧，也没有提出一般性的问题，这表明该机构将拒绝通过这些申请文件。更宽泛地来看，这家美国监管机构似乎并不想把比特币现货ETF的例子复制到其他产品上。However, after hearing from the issuers, the SEC did not articulate specific concerns or raise general questions, indicating that the agency will reject these applications. More broadly, it seems that this US regulatory agency does not want to replicate the example of Bitcoin spot ETFs in other products.

本月早些时候，VanEck首席执行官Jan van Eck告诉媒体，其申请“很可能会被拒绝”。但一些发行人表示，他们仍计划向SEC提交更多的披露文件，以保持对话的进行。Earlier this month, VanEck CEO Jan van Eck told the media that their application is "likely to be rejected." However, some issuers stated that they still plan to submit more disclosure documents to the SEC to keep the dialog going.

事实上，目前的SEC主席Gary Gensler一直是加密货币的怀疑论者，比特币现货ETF也是在灰度（Grayscale Investments）对SEC的诉讼获胜后才得以获批。In fact, current SEC Chairman Gary Gensler has always been a crypto skeptic, and the Bitcoin spot ETF was only approved after Grayscale Investments won its lawsuit against the SEC.

批评人士称，若以太币现货ETF获批，可能会为更多投机性加密货币ETF的推出铺平道路，这将让投资者面临超出他们预期的风险。Critics say that if an Ethereum spot ETF is approved, it could pave the way for the introduction of more speculative cryptocurrency ETFs, exposing investors to risks beyond their expectations.

数据公司VettaFi的ETF分析主管Todd Rosenbluth评论称，“监管前景仍然阴云密布，目前来看，SEC似乎更有可能将批准时间点推迟到2024年的晚些时候，或者更长时间。”Todd Rosenbluth, director of ETF analysis at data company VettaFi, commented, "The regulatory outlook is still cloudy, and at this point, it seems that the SEC is more likely to postpone approval until later in 2024, or even longer."

分析师Eric Balchunas认为，今年5月底之前批准以太坊现货ETF的概率仅为25%，先前他的预测为70%。预测市场Polymarket的报告更为悲观，给出的几率仅为11%。Analyst Eric Balchunas believes that the probability of approving an Ethereum spot ETF before the end of May is only 25%, compared to his previous prediction of 70%. The report from the forecasting market Polymarket is even more pessimistic, giving a probability of only 11%.

根据Bitstamp的报价，以太坊在近24小时内下跌3%，比特币也跌近2.8%。According to Bitstamp's quote, Ethereum fell by 3% in the past 24 hours, and Bitcoin also fell by nearly 2.8%.