特殊的牛市？第四次“减半”多项指标被打破
当前，比特币已经经历了它的第四次减半，这导致其供应通胀再次减少50%，而其通缩性则自然增加。在本文中，我们将会探讨比特币网络在价格表现和其在基本网络指标方面跨时代的演变。
Currently, Bitcoin has experienced its fourth halving, leading to a 50% reduction in its supply inflation and a natural increase in its deflationary nature. In this article, we will explore the evolution of Bitcoin's network in terms of price performance and its fundamental network indicators.
摘要
最近，比特币已经经历了自问世以来的第四次减半，而比特币供应的年化通胀率则再次降低了50%，这也意味着它在发行的稀缺性方面完全地超越了黄金。
在衡量减半时期的比特币网络状况时，我们发现其多个重要指标的增长速度都有所放缓。但即便如此，其增长的趋势仍然不会停止，并且每一次都会创造出新的历史峰值。
现货价格上涨和价格历史峰值被大幅突破提振了投资者的盈利能力，而这也反过来扭转了开采者收入较年初下降50%的不利情况。
Abstract
Recently, Bitcoin has undergone its fourth halving since its inception, resulting in a 50% reduction in the annualized inflation rate of Bitcoin supply, indicating that it has completely surpassed gold in terms of scarcity.
When measuring the state of the Bitcoin network during the halving period, we found that the growth rate of several important indicators has slowed. However, despite this, the trend of growth will not stop and will create new historical peaks each time.
The rise in spot prices and the substantial breakthrough of price historical highs have boosted investors' profit capabilities, which in turn has reversed the unfavorable situation of a 50% decline in miner income from the beginning of the year.
通缩性的供给
由于拥有被称为“自适应难度调整”的巧妙算法，比特币供应曲线是确定性的。该算法会不断地调整比特币开采过程的难度，这使得开采者无论应用多大算力的设备，比特币网络的平均出块间隔都保持在600秒（10分钟）左右。
在比特币网络每经历210,000个区块高度（大约4年时间），就会发生预定的发行量减半，导致新铸造的比特币量减少50%。而第四次比特币的减半发生在上周末，区块补贴从每个区块6.25比特币下降到3.125比特币，这意味着全网每天约能铸造出450枚比特币（针对已开采的144个区块）。
Due to the clever algorithm called "adaptive difficulty adjustment," the Bitcoin supply curve is deterministic. This algorithm continuously adjusts the difficulty of the Bitcoin mining process, maintaining an average block interval of about 600 seconds (10 minutes) regardless of the magnitude of the mining equipment used.
Every 210,000 block heights (approximately 4 years), the Bitcoin network experiences a scheduled halving of the issuance, resulting in a 50% reduction in the newly minted Bitcoin. The fourth halving of Bitcoin took place last weekend, reducing the block subsidy from 6.25 bitcoins per block to 3.125 bitcoins, meaning that approximately 450 bitcoins can be minted daily across the network (based on the 144 blocks already mined).
在比特币问世之后的前四个纪元中，共计有19,687,500枚比特币被开采出来，相当于预先设定的全网总供应量2100万枚的93.75%。因此，在未来126年中只剩下1,312,500枚比特币尚待发掘，其中当前纪元（第三次和第四次减半之间）共计发行了656,600枚比特币（占总量的3.125%）。有趣的是，每次减半都代表一个关键点：
剩余待开采量的百分比等于新的区块补贴（3.125比特币/区块 vs 剩余3.125%）。
剩余待开采量的50%（131.25万枚比特币）将在第四次减半和第五次减半之间被开采出来。
In the first four epochs after the launch of Bitcoin, a total of 19,687,500 bitcoins have been mined, which accounts for 93.75% of the predetermined total supply of 21 million bitcoins. Therefore, only 1,312,500 bitcoins remain to be mined in the next 126 years, with 656,600 bitcoins being issued in the current epoch (between the third and fourth halvings) - representing 3.125% of the total supply. Interestingly, each halving represents a key point:
The percentage of remaining to be mined equals the new block subsidy (3.125 bitcoins/block vs remaining 3.125%).
50% of the remaining to be mined (1.3125 million bitcoins) will be mined between the fourth and fifth halvings.
由于区块补贴每210,000个区块高度就减半一次，比特币的通货膨胀率也大约每4年就随之减半。这使得比特币供应量的最新年化通胀率为0.85%，低于上一时期的1.7%。
第四次减半也标志着在人们比较比特币与黄金这两类一般等价物时的一个重要里程碑，在历史上，比特币的稳态发行率（0.83%）首次低于黄金（~2.3%），这标志着“最稀缺资产”的头衔历史性地完成了从黄金向比特币的交接。
As the block subsidy halves every 210,000 block heights, the inflation rate of Bitcoin also halves approximately every 4 years. This results in the latest annualized inflation rate for Bitcoin supply being 0.85%, lower than the previous period's 1.7%.
The fourth halving also marks an important milestone when comparing Bitcoin to gold as a general equivalent. Historically, Bitcoin's steady-state issuance rate (0.83%) is lower than gold's (~2.3%) for the first time, signifying the historic transition of the title of "most scarce asset" from gold to Bitcoin.
保持谨慎态度
然而我们必须指出的重要一点是，我们需要正确看待这次减半的规模。在评估减半对市场动态的相对影响时，我们必须看到与比特币生态系统内的全球交易量相比，减半之后新铸造出的比特币总量仍然非常小。在当前，减半后铸造的比特币总量仅占我们今天看到的链上转账量、现货交易量和衍生品量的一小部分，目前相当于任何一天转移和交易总资本的不到0.1%。
Because of the cunning algorithm named "adaptive difficulty adjustment," the Bitcoin supply curve is deterministic. This algorithm continuously adjusts the difficulty of the Bitcoin mining process, maintaining an average block interval of about 600 seconds (10 minutes) regardless of the magnitude of the mining equipment used.
Given that the block subsidy halves every 210,000 block heights, the inflation rate of Bitcoin also halves approximately every 4 years. This results in the latest annualized inflation rate for Bitcoin supply being 0.85%, lower than the previous period's 1.7%.
The fourth halving also marks an important milestone when comparing Bitcoin to gold as a general equivalent. Historically, Bitcoin's steady-state issuance rate (0.83%) is lower than gold's (~2.3%) for the first time, signifying the historic transition of the title of "most scarce asset" from gold to Bitcoin.
保持谨慎态度
However, it is important to note that we need to take a correct view of the scale of this halving. When assessing the relative impact of the halving on market dynamics, we must see that the total amount of newly minted bitcoins after the halving is still very small compared to the global trading volume within the Bitcoin ecosystem. Currently, the total amount of bitcoins minted after the halving accounts for only a small fraction of the on-chain transfer volume, spot trading volume, and derivative volume we see today, equivalent to less than 0.1% of the total capital transferred and traded on any given day.
因此，比特币减半对可用交易供应量的影响在各个周期中都在减弱，这不仅是因为减半之后开采的比特币数量在不断减少，还因为围绕它的资产和生态系统规模仍在继续扩大。
Therefore, the impact of Bitcoin halving on the available trading supply is weakening in each cycle, not only because the number of bitcoins mined after the halving is continuously decreasing, but also because the scale of assets and ecosystems surrounding it continues to expand.
合理期望
比特币的减半是一个重要且广为人知的事件，每次临近减半都自然会导致人们对其对价格走势影响的猜测加剧。而平衡我们的期望与历史先例的差异，并根据比特币过去的表现创建一个相对宽松的分析界限可能是一种更加明智的市场分析策略。
比特币在各个减半时期的价格表现差异很大，我们认为早期的减半时期与今天有很大的不同，过去的经验可能无法对当前我们的分析预判起到很大的指导作用。但随着时间的推移，我们确实看到了回报的递减和总回撤效应的减弱，这是市场规模不断扩大以及推动市场规模增长所需的流动资本规模扩张所引发的自然结果。
红色：第二纪元（Epoch 2）价格表现：+5,315%，最大回撤为-85%
蓝色：第三纪元（Epoch 3）价格表现：+1,336%，最大回撤为-83%
绿色：第四纪元（Epoch 4）价格表现：+569%，最大回撤为-77%
We need to take a balanced approach to our expectations, creating a relatively liberal analytical boundary based on the differences between our expectations and historical precedents, and a history of Bitcoin performance.
The price performance of Bitcoin during each halving period varies greatly. We believe that the early halving periods are very different from today, and past experiences may not have much guidance for our current analysis and predictions. However, over time, we have indeed seen diminishing returns and a weakening total drawdown effect, a natural result of the expansion of market capital and the expansion of the flow of capital required to drive market size growth.
红色：第二纪元（Epoch 2）价格表现：+5,315%，最大回撤为-85%
蓝色：第三纪元（Epoch 3）价格表现：+1,336%，最大回撤为-83%
绿色：第四纪元（Epoch 4）价格表现：+569%，最大回撤为-77%
我们现在来评估自上个周期低点直至减半时比特币的价格表现，我们注意到2015年和2018年的情况与当前周期存在明显相似之处，它们均经历了约200%至约300%的增长。
然而，需要尤其着重指出的是，当前周期是有史以来唯一一个价格在减半事件之前即宣告突破前一个历史价格峰值的周期。
Our evaluation of Bitcoin's price performance from the previous cycle low to the halving shows that the situations in 2015 and 2018 are noticeably similar to the current cycle, all experiencing growth of approximately 200% to 300%.. However, it is particularly important to note that the current cycle is the only one in history to declare a breakthrough in the previous historical price peak before the halving event.
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