从旁氏三盘理论看MEME币崛起

作者：CaptainZ 来源：X，@hiCaptainZ (Author: CaptainZ Source: X, @hiCaptainZ)

三盘理论是加密韦陀（@thecryptoskanda）提出的一种关于旁氏的认知模型，本文基于此理论来探索三次牛市的原因：MEME币是互助盘，DeFi是分红盘，ICO是拆分盘。

什么是三盘理论 (What is the Three Plate Theory)

加密韦陀认为，Crypto最大价值之一是首次实现庞氏民主化与可交易化。(Cryptographic understanding is one of the greatest values of Crypto, which is the first realization of Ponzi democratization and tradability.)

人人都能发，还能交易盘子。抛开外部因素，Crypto每轮牛市都由庞氏的根本创新驱动研究庞氏，你就能根据庞氏创新所需第一性，在市场中找到大趋势级别alpha。(Everyone can issue, and trade the plate. Regardless of external factors, each bull market in Crypto is driven by Ponzi's fundamental innovation. Researching Ponzi, you can find major trend-level alpha in the market based on the first necessity of Ponzi innovation.)

庞氏虽然眼花缭乱，但是归根结底只有三种模型: 分红盘、互助盘、拆分盘。一切庞氏，都是这三种模型的组合。基于这个逻辑的分析方法，他将其称为《三盘模型》。三盘可以单独出现也可组合，每种都有自身优缺点，对应相应的起盘、操盘和崩盘逻辑。(Although Ponzi is dazzling, in the final analysis, there are only three models: dividend plate, mutual aid plate, and split plate. All Ponzi schemes are combinations of these three models. Based on this logic, he calls it the "Three Plate Model." Three plates can appear alone or in combination. Each has its own advantages and disadvantages, corresponding to the corresponding logic for the start, operation, and collapse.)

- 分红盘：一次性投入一整笔资金，随时间线性分红获得收益（Dividend plate: a one-time investment of a whole sum of money, obtaining returns through linear dividends over time）

- 互助盘：A给B打钱，B给C打，C给A打从而形成流水错配，按笔结算收益（Mutual aid plate: A pays B, B pays C, C pays A to form a mismatch of funds, with returns settled by the pen）

- 拆分盘: 将一个资产标的不断拆分成新的标的。通过新低价标的吸引增量资金。收益通过标的增值实现（Split plate: continuously split an asset target into new targets. Attract incremental funds through new low-price targets. Returns are realized through target appreciation）

在逻辑设计上, 三盘特点如下: (In logical design, the characteristics of the three plates are as follows:)

MEME是互助盘 (MEME is a mutual aid plate)

传统互助盘的核心在于资金的流水错配。这种模式通常涉及多个参与者按顺序互相转账，形成一个资金循环。一般来说某个用户，他收到下家转来的钱要高于他给出上家的钱要多，如此赚取比他们原始投入更多的钱。项目方一般通过每笔转账的抽水来赚取回报。(The core of traditional mutual aid plate is the mismatch of funds. This model usually involves multiple participants transferring funds to each other in order, forming a capital cycle. Typically, a user, receiving money from the next party, receives more than they give to the previous party, thus earning more money than their original investment. Project parties generally make a profit through a commission on each transfer.)

这种旁氏模型在三个模型中是最为去中心化的一种模式，因为规则一旦制定好，后面是无需”管理方“介入的，因为抽水本质上就是抽税。(This Ponzi model is the most decentralized of the three models, because once the rules are established, there is no need for "management" to intervene, because the commission is essentially a tax.)

传统互助盘是一种空间尺度上的资金错配，所以它不需要形成资金池，大部分也不能自由进出款项，但必然要承诺高额收益。那为什么说MEME币是互助盘呢？(Traditional mutual aid plate is a form of fund mismatch at the spatial scale, so it does not need to form a funding pool, and most of the time, funds cannot be freely withdrawn, but high returns must be promised. Why is MEME considered a mutual aid plate?)

我们一般认为MEME币有两个最重要的属性：(We generally believe that MEME coins have two most important attributes:)

公平发射：人人皆可参与（人人皆可互助） (Fair launch: everyone can participate (everyone can help each other))

全流通：不需要项目方预留 (Fully circulated: no need for project party reservation)

所谓的“文化属性”和“总量特别大”并不是必需的。(So-called "cultural attributes" and "very large total amounts" are not necessary.)

MEME币其实是一种时间尺度上的资金错配。我们假设在某个牛市语境下，某个MEME币一直强势上涨，那么其实是，今天高价买币的打钱给昨天买币的，昨天买币的打钱给前天最低价买币的。而因为时间本身的唯一性，又形成了“被动锁仓”（人不可能永远跨入同一条河流）。所以我们就有了下图的对比：(In fact, MEME coins are a form of fund mismatch over time. We assume that in a certain bull market context, a certain MEME coin continues to rise in strength, so in fact, today's high-priced coin purchases are paying the people who bought coins yesterday, and those who bought coins yesterday are paying the lowest price coin buyers from the day before. And because of the uniqueness of time itself, it results in "passive lock-up" (people cannot forever cross the same river). So we have the following comparison:)

DeFi是分红盘 (DeFi is a dividend plate)

DeFi是上一轮牛市的核心叙事（2020年），在技术上就是把金融规则写入智能合约（区块链技术和某一领域结合的一种方式），从代币经济学来说，是以流动性挖矿的方式来分发协议代币：把钱存进协议获得token。(DeFi is the core narrative of the last bull market (2020), technically it is writing financial rules into smart contracts (a way of combining blockchain technology with a certain field), from the perspective of token economics, it is a way of distributing protocol tokens through liquidity mining: deposit money into the protocol to obtain tokens.)

比如金融领域最为重要的两个方面是交易和借贷，那就有了Uniswap和Compound。在Uniswap里面，用户把代币A和代币B组成交易对LP存入资金池来获得收益。在Compound里面，用户需要把可以借贷的代币存入资金池来获得收益。收益大部分是协议代币，少量是真金白银（稳定币）。(For example, the two most important aspects in the financial field are trading and borrowing, which is Uniswap and Compound. In Uniswap, users form a trading pair of tokens A and B to store in the liquidity pool to obtain returns. In Compound, users need to store the tokens that can be borrowed in the liquidity pool to obtain returns. Most of the returns are protocol tokens, and a small amount is real money (stablecoins).)

DeFi是典型的分红盘, 因为分红盘的基本逻辑就是“一次性投入一整笔资金，随时间线性分红获得收益”，是不是和上面的做法一模一样？我们同样有下图的对比：(DeFi is a typical dividend plate, because the basic logic of a dividend plate is "a one-time investment of a whole sum of money, obtaining returns through linear dividends over time," isn't it exactly the same as the above approach? We also have the following comparison:)

ICO是拆分盘 (ICO is a split plate)

ICO是上上轮牛市的核心叙事（2017年），其大概玩法是，任意领域的一个想法写成白皮书，然后进行融资发代币，以致于大部分人们都误以为，区块链唯一的应用场景就是“发币”（区块链技术和某一领域结合的另一种方式）。所以在那个周期，出现了很多奇奇怪怪的代币，比如什么“做环保发个币”，“做电脑发个币”，“做慈善发个币”，等等。(ICO is the core narrative of the previous bull market (2017), where the general approach was to write a white paper on any idea in the field, and then raise funds to issue tokens, so much so that most people mistakenly believe that the only application scenario for blockchain is "issuing coins" (another way of combining blockchain technology with a certain field). So during that period, many strange tokens appeared, such as "doing environmental protection and issuing coins," "doing computers and issuing coins," "doing charity and issuing coins," and so on.)

我们知道，拆分盘是将一个资产标的不断拆分成新的标的。通过新低价标的吸引增量资金。收益通过标的增值实现，这不正是ICO的表现吗？如果我们把当时加密货币这个赛道看做一个资金盘的话，各种ICO的出现正是把加密货币这个资产标的，不断通过“新的故事”来拆分成新的投资标的（新的ICO代币），以此来吸引增量资金。于是我们仍旧有了对比图：(We know that a split plate is to continuously split an asset target into new targets. Attract incremental funds through new low-price targets. Returns are realized through target appreciation, isn't this exactly the representation of ICO? If we consider the cryptocurrency track at the time as a funding plate, the appearance of various ICOs is to continuously split the cryptocurrency asset target into new investment targets (new ICO tokens) through "new stories" to attract incremental funds. So we still have a comparison chart:)

币圈即盘圈 (Coin circle is the plate circle)

如果我们忽略具体的技术演化，仅从代币经济学角度来说，似乎过去的十年，确实代表了旁氏模式的演化，甚至我们也可以把比特币挖矿也可以看做是一种分红盘（质押矿机产生BTC收益）。(If we ignore the specific technological evolution and only look at it from the perspective of token economics, it seems that the past decade indeed represents the evolution of Ponzi schemes, and we can even consider Bitcoin mining as a form of dividend (staking mining machine producing BTC returns).)

那是不是演化的顺序是：分红盘（BTC挖矿）-- 拆分盘（ICO）-- 分红盘（DeFi）-- 互助盘（MEME）？同时项目也变得越来越去中心化。(Is the sequence of evolution: dividend plate (BTC mining) -- split plate (ICO) -- dividend plate (DeFi) -- mutual aid plate (MEME)? At the same time, projects are becoming more and more decentralized.)

另外一方面，如果把MEME当做一个赛道来看的话，越来越多的MEME币出现，其实也是拆分盘的体现，那么可以认为MEME就是（互助盘+拆分盘）的合体。(On the other hand, if we consider MEME as a track, the emergence of more and more MEME coins is actually a manifestation of a split plate, so it can be considered that MEME is a combination of (mutual aid plate + split plate).)

互助盘，也许是本轮牛市“互不接盘”的真实答案（Restaking是分红盘，DePin是分红盘，Layer2是拆分盘，显然散户这轮牛市只想玩互助盘）。 (Mutual aid plate, perhaps the real answer to "not picking up each other" in this bull market (Restaking is a dividend plate, DePin is a dividend plate, Layer2 is a split plate, apparently retail investors only want to play mutual aid plates in this bull market).）