Glassnode：第四次减半后 BTC价格和基本指标的变化

作者：UkuriaOC, Glassnode；编译：邓通，比特币买卖交易网

The author compiles Deng Tong Bitcoin Trading Network. 比特币今日价格行情网_okx交易所app_永续合约_比特币怎么买卖交易_虚拟币交易所平台

摘要

• 比特币第四次减半已经发生，比特币供应量的年化通胀率降低了50%，在稀缺性方面决定性地超越了黄金。

  Bitcoin's fourth halving has occurred, reducing the annualized inflation rate of Bitcoin's supply by 50%, decisively surpassing gold in scarcity.

• 在衡量减半时，多个网络统计数据中的增长率都在下降，而这些措施的绝对值继续攀升至新的 ATH。

  When measuring the halving, the growth rates in several network statistics are declining, while the absolute values of these measures continue to climb to new ATHs.

• 现货价格上涨和 ATH 决定性突破提振了投资者的盈利能力，这抑制了矿商收入较年初下降 50% 的情况。

  Spot price increases and decisive ATH breakthroughs have boosted investor profitability, suppressing the 50% decline in miner revenue compared to the beginning of the year.

通缩供给

由于称为“难度调整”的巧妙的挖矿算法，比特币供应曲线是确定的。 该协议调整了比特币挖矿过程的难度，使得无论应用多少挖矿设备，平均区块间隔都保持在 600 秒（10 分钟）左右。

每 210,000 个区块（大约 4 年时间段），就会发生预定的开采量减少，新铸造的 BTC 减少 50%。 第四次比特币减半发生在周末，区块补贴从每个区块 6.25 BTC 下降到 3.125 BTC，或者每天大约开采 450 BTC（针对已开采的 144 个区块）。

Entering the fourth halving, 19,687,500 BTC have been mined, equivalent to 93.75% of the terminal supply of 21 million BTC. Therefore, only 1,312,500 BTC remains to be mined in the next 126 years, with 656,600 BTC already mined in the current phase (3.125%). Interestingly, each halving represents a point:

• The remaining supply percentage equals the new block subsidy (3.125 BTC/block vs. remaining 3.125%).

• 50% of the remaining supply amount (1.3125 million bitcoins) will be mined between the fourth halving and the fifth halving.

As block rewards halve, the inflation rate also halves roughly every 4 years. This puts the new annualized inflation rate of Bitcoin's supply at 0.85%, lower than the previous period's 1.7%.

The fourth halving also marks an important milestone in comparing Bitcoin to gold, with Bitcoin's historical steady-state issuance rate (0.83%) lower than gold's (~2.3%), signaling a historic shift in the title of Bitcoin—becoming the scarcest asset.

However, it is important to correctly scale the halving. When assessing the relative impact of the halving on market dynamics, the newly mined bitcoin amount remains very small compared to global transaction volumes within the Bitcoin ecosystem.

The mined amount represents only a small fraction of the total capital moved on any given day in terms of on-chain transfers, spot volume, and derivatives volume, currently representing less than 0.1% of total transferred and traded capital on any given day.

The impact of Bitcoin halving on available trading supply is diminishing across cycles, not only because of the reduced amount of mined bitcoins but also due to the expanding scale of assets and ecosystem surrounding it.

接地气的期望

Halving is an important and well-known event, naturally leading to speculation on its impact on price movements. Balancing our expectations with historical precedents and creating loose boundaries based on past performance may be useful.

The price performance during the early halving periods varies greatly, and we believe the early halving periods are very different from today and may not provide much guidance. Over time, we do see diminishing returns and diminishing total drawdown effects, which are a natural consequence of the growing market size and the capital flows needed to drive market size growth.

• Red: Epoch 2 Performance: +5315%, Maximum Drawdown: -85%

• Blue: Epoch 3 Performance: +1336%, Maximum Drawdown: -83%

• Green: Epoch 4 Performance: +569%, Maximum Drawdown: -77%

Evaluating the price performance from cycle lows to halving, we note a clear similarity between the period of 2015, 2018, and the current cycle, all experiencing growth of about 200% to 300%.

However, our current cycle is the only one on record to decisively break the previous ATH before the halving event.

Another perspective is to examine the market performance in the 365 days following each halving. The performance in the second period is much greater, but we must consider that the dynamics and patterns of today's market have significantly changed compared to the 2011-2013 period.

Therefore, the recent two periods (3 and 4) provide a richer description of the impact on asset scale.

• Red: Epoch 2 Performance: +7,258%, Maximum Drawdown: -69.4%

• Blue: Epoch 3 Performance: +293%, Maximum Drawdown: -29.6%

• Green: Epoch 4 Performance: +266%, Maximum Drawdown: -45.6%

While the year following the halving has historically shown strong performance, it has also seen some significant price drops ranging from -30% to -70% during this process.

历史有时相似

During the bear market period in 2022, a common belief was that the price would never go below the previous ATH (set in 2017 at $20,000). This was proven invalid as the price plummeted by over 25% from the 2017 cycle high during the widespread deleveraging process at the end of 2022.

A similar belief has been circulating recently, that the price cannot break a new ATH before the halving. This was proven wrong again in March of this year. The ATH we saw in March was fueled by a significant demand interest from historical supply tightness (WoC-46-2023) and the introduction of new spot ETFs.

This price surge has also had a significant impact on the unrealized profits held by investors. Currently, the unrealized gains held in the token supply are the largest since the halving event (measured by MVRV).

In other words, as of the halving day, investors hold the greatest unrealized gains relative to their cost basis. The MVRV ratio is 2.26, meaning the average unit percentage gain for BTC is +126%.

根本性增长

In the previous section, we assessed the historical price performance centered around the halving. In the next section, we shift the focus to the fundamental growth of the network, including mining security, miner revenue, asset liquidity, and settlement volume during the halving period.

Hashrate is a network statistic used to assess the collective "firepower" of the mining pool. During halving, the growth rate of hashrate has slowed, but the absolute hash value per second continues to grow, currently standing at 620 Exahash per second (equivalent to 775 billion hashes completed per second by all 8 billion people on Earth).

Interestingly, hashrate is at or near new ATHs at each halving event, indicating two possible scenarios:

• More ASIC devices are about to come online;

• More efficient hashing ASIC hardware is in production.

The conclusion drawn from these two scenarios is that while the mined amount decreases by 50% each halving, the overall security budget is not only sufficient to sustain current OPEX costs but also to stimulate further investments in CAPEX and OPEX areas.

In dollar terms, miner revenue growth rate is also declining, but the absolute scale is expanding net. Over the past 4 years, miners have earned an astounding $30 billion in cumulative revenue, growing by an order of magnitude compared to the previous period.

Realized cap is a powerful tool for measuring the strength of capital invested and stored in Bitcoin over a period of time, used to compare dollar-denominated liquidity growth across cycles. Through this measure, $560 billion in dollar value has been "stored" in Bitcoin. Realized cap has increased by 439% compared to the previous period, supporting the current $1.4 trillion market value of the asset. It is also worth noting that despite Bitcoin's notorious volatility, bad headlines, and periodic drawdowns, capital continues to flow in.

Finally, if we evaluate settlement transfer volume during the halving period, we can see that the economic value of network transfers and settlements over the past four years has reached $106 trillion. It is important to note that this considers raw, unfiltered transaction volume and does not account for internal wallet management adjustments.

Nevertheless, each transaction is settled without intermediaries, highlighting the incredible massive value throughput capability of the Bitcoin network.

总结

With the highly anticipated halving completed, the mining reward per block halved, intensifying the scarcity of the asset and decisively surpassing gold in terms of scarcity.

Comparing across periods, the growth of hashrate, network settlement, liquidity, and miner revenue is contracting. However, the absolute value of these metrics has increased by an order of magnitude, which is an incredibly impressive feat in terms of market size.

Notably, the profitability of network participants across various sectors in the market has significantly improved compared to previous halvings. This includes the foundational mining stratum, which has entered the halving with ATH hashrate, indicating there is enough security budget to stimulate operational and capital expenditure demands.