11月10日AMA回放:BRC20现在还能买什么?

币圈资讯 阅读:65 2024-04-22 12:54:06 评论:0
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比特币生态要爆发? BRC20 开启下轮牛市?谁来告诉我现在能买什么,我不想踏空啊!

11月10日比特币买卖交易网举办了Twitter Space,邀请了8位嘉宾分享行业观察。

重点提醒:本文发言均是个人观察和分享,不构成任何投资建议,如暴富或者亏损,均与平台、本场直播和嘉宾没任何关系。

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请嘉宾简单进行自我介绍。

Sonic Zhang:我是2017年进入区块链行业,做过钱包、交易所、两支基金,现在是一个CyberMonk,a monk that can't stop talking about Bitcoin.

Xiaoyufu:大家好我是小渔夫,目前主要在做微博IP,大号也是微博金v,微博粉丝总量20W。有做过财经,也孵化过项目。不过目前主要围绕交易布局。主要擅长热点板块的布局,今年比较热闹的就是一月份创立了香港概念,挖掘推广cfx。今年的想法是建立一个像DWF这样的投资+游资的基金。Ordi我不是最开始打的,听朋友介绍然后开始买。我对它的第一印象就是 技术突破带来的meme,跟以往的不一样。

Leo:技术背景的老韭菜,现在是 3P Labs 投研机构的联合创始人,挖掘BTC生态的一级二级投资机会。

比特鸭:2018年入圈,个人开发者,之前做过NFT交易所、链上交易终端,最近在一直关注比特币协议开发,和朋友做了一个比特币的社群。

Xiyu:2013年入圈,前两年不太关注Web3,感觉太吵了,但个人比较倾向于比特币,今年Ordinals关注的比较早,发了一些教程,引起了很多人的关注。

大山:我是水滴资本的大山,水滴资本是2017年成立的VC,除了主营基金外,我们还在香港管理两支持牌的数字资产基金。我们最早是矿工身份,所以一直对比特币生态很感兴趣,但比特币生态的进展一直比较少,今年Ordinals让我们看到了潜力,所以把部分的投资转到了这个赛道。

做个提示,虽然BRC20很火,但是如果你之前没上车,现在也不要着急,因为这只是个开始,后边还有很多机会,我相信未来1-2年内以太坊生态的项目都可以在比特币生态找到,而且会做的更好。

光华:六年前我就在做BTC Layer2。之前比较知名的是Polkadot的第一条链叫Chainx,在5年前就上线了,当时有10万个BTC跨到上为了挖Chainx代币,但是挖完就走了,没有办法落地,所以我们一直觉得BTC生态做不起来,直到今年看到了Ordinals和Unisat爆火。我们决定把Chainx的技术继承下来继续做Layer2,现在在做的BTC layer2项目叫bevm,然后又顺便做了一个打铭文平台Bitbox,在市场的占有率比较可观,Bitbox一共打了20%的Sats。

Ivan:我是BRC-1155的作者,我在2月份的时候已经在研究Ordinals,然后开始写协议做项目,並在3月份成為了第一批鑄造100張Ordi的OG,也是從中少數能夠拿到近30塊的人,後來加入了Magic Eden,擔任比特幣亞太區社群經理, 建了社群和认识了不少朋友。

BRC20几年的第二次爆火原因是什么?

Sonic Zhang:5月我正好在帮Unisat做事情。那次暴涨主要是Unisat上线了交易,大家开始发自己的meme币,把手续费冲到很高,一个区块手续费超过了区块奖励,让矿工感受到了Ordinals的可能性,而这次暴涨是比特币的牛回,大家开始关注比特币相关的生态。

光华:5月份的时候当我注意到Unisat的时候,突然意识到6年前做BTC Layer2不成功的原因是没有实际应用,而这次完全不同,比特币生态的叙事已经开始了,可以发币了,就像是2016年以太坊可以发币的时候一样,更何况BTC的市值是ETH的3倍。

5月份热潮原因是Unisat,这次是因为OKX钱包上线了免手续费的铭文交易平台,大家打了铭文就挂在交易平台去卖,让很多用户关注到了这个赛道,但这些只是催化剂,根本原因是叙事打开了。

Xiaoyufu:二次爆火的标志性事件是Ordi上币安。大量用户体验繁荣的内驱动来自于ok钱包的功能。

爆火的第一原因是代币筹码的流动归集,Ordi的筹码在上所之后随着价格的回落,部分持有者丧失交易中信心,更多筹码慢慢集结到主力手里。第二原因是生态的发展,我认为Ordi的发展一定要有三次购买力的释放,钱包也算是生态的一环,OKX钱包就是能够交易就是一次重要的购买力释放,参与到了BRC项目里,也创造出了类似于以太坊meme的动物园的繁荣景象。

有人说这一波热潮是牛市的开始,有人觉得这波热潮很快就会凉,您有什么看法?

Xiyu:比特币价格上涨导致资金溢出,先流到了Ordinals一部分,这很好, 因为以前比特币价格上涨,资金会溢出到山寨币、以太坊或者其他生态,但是现在和比特币更近比特币生态就可以承接这部分资金,比如以后闪电网络应用做的火起来,可能大家赚了钱后会将比特币从交易所提到闪电网络的钱包上,促进闪电网络上的进一步繁荣。

热度持续的事情不需要担心,半年已经有两个Ordinals的小牛市了,也许三个月之后还有一个,也许一个月以后就会有一个,所以不用特别担心。至于真正的牛市我觉得现在还有点早,现在反弹力度不大,没有压抑很久冲出去的感觉,我个人的判断这是单边下跌之后的反弹,但上半年没有反弹到位,我觉得这次反弹可能会继续,但暂时不认为牛市会到来。

比特鸭:牛市是悄无声息的,等大家意识过来的时候可能都不是牛市了,在币圈80%时间是拉低时间,20%才是拉盘的,其实现在已经涨的很多了,但是牛市是没办法预料的。

最近比特币生态大火一方面是技术成熟,像2017年的隔离见证、签名交易,去年的Taproot升级激活,今年domo提出BRC20的概念,最近的Pipe协议、BitVM协议、Atom协议、RGB协议。2016年以太坊发行了自己的发币方式,今年比特币也有了自己的发币方式。后来OKX的Web3钱包中的铭文交易平台使用非常丝滑,Ordi上线币安,生态和建设有越来越多人参与,发展成了一个新的赛道。

大山:BRC20的牛市和比特币牛市不一样,比特币牛市是非常确定性的,三个利好:美联储加息到了尾声+明年减半+ETF马上会通过。9月份我们在Token2049和相关的公司聊过,他们认为明年ETF2月份批准的概率80%,4月份是90%。现在不是SEC不批准,是相关企业让SEC先别批准,他们的基础设施还没有准备好。Fidelity数字资产部门已经有600多员工,其中400都是工程师,从基础设施开始建设,等建设完之后才会让SEC批准。

BRC20和比特币的关系只有两个,一是BRC20增加了交易,链上收益变高了,二是把目光吸引到了比特币生态。近两年进入的人都是奔着Web3来的,很多人又认为Web3就是在以太坊上做开发,BRC20让大家关注比特币RGB、闪电网络、Ordinals,而且比特币比以太坊更去中心化。上个月见了一个在以太坊做ZKrollup的团队,他们现在已经开始在比特币建二层网络。

我预计BTC这一轮肯定会到10万,大资金买比特币没问题。BRC20就不好说了,很多人看到市值10亿美元,但是按照现在Ordi的价格来说,风险大但盈利少,所以不建议大家再追高了,再去看看其他的小而美的东西,早点入场。

有人说BRC20是革命,有人说是垃圾、没意义,大家为什么观点这么两极分化,您持什么观点呢?

Leo:悲观者永远正确,乐观者收获财富,圈内争议性事物出来的时候,要么就是很牛逼,要么就是归零,BTC的诞生就是这样,现在都有人说它是骗局,但不影响它的发展,上一轮牛市的SHIB,但只要最后被大交易所拥抱之后,大家就不会讨论太多负面的内容了。

从技术角度看BRC20协议,确实没什么技术门槛,技术出身的人对它不屑一顾,但作为普通投资者、VC,面对新事物的时候,越是有热度有争议,越是要研究,可以拿一些小仓位研究,尽量不要被市场情绪左右,而是把市场情绪当成观察指标,看市场怎么发展。

Ivan:BRC20是一个公平分发代币的协议,散户愿意花钱去把铭文打出来,本身就是市场上对于Sats的肯定和认同。BRC20门槛很低,ERC20也不高,所有人都可以发币出来,让即使没有技术水平的团队也能做出来、然后炒作。所有协议都是一样的,BRC20、ERC20都是,只要能索引出来,只要账本是公平的,只要大家是认可的就可以。

Xiyu:BRC20这个系统有很多缺点,第一,不能作为金融系统承载资金,因为底层不稳定。现在BRC20索引开源之后会好一些,如果把这个系统理解成专门炒土狗的,那就没什么,但是它效率低、中心化、容易被攻击,前一阶段因为Ordinals版本,出现了同步不一致的问题,所以作为金融系统承载资金依然是危险的。

第二,并不公平,有些人认为可以公平发币,但其实不然。BRC20限制了4个字符,还能抢先部署,所以很多亚洲团队土狗的玩法,就是自己建个池子,大家虽然都一起挖,但是他们会挖到更多。

第三,这个系统浪费了很多比特币。有很多小额的、接近粉尘的比特币被锁仓了,仔细算下来也是一笔不小的钱,不过锁仓对于比特币价格上升也起了一点点作用。

出现了很多比特币生态的协议,BRC20,ARC20,RGB协议,Taproot资产,侧链Liquid,L2 Stacks、BitVM等等,您比较看好哪些?

大山:我们是看好Layer2。做区块链应用的初衷是大规模采用,2013年底2014年初中本聪发了个帖子说,比特币这个东西30年之后要么归零,要么成为全球结算网络。那么我们在建设比特币的时候视野一定要打开,做全球大家都用到的事情。BRC20、Ordinals做不到,这是小圈子的事,要把区块链和比特币推广到大多数人中,只能靠Layer2。很重要的就是闪电网络,大家如果看代码能发现,闪电网络这是符合中本聪愿景的,TPS很高、容量也很大,而且比特币还比以太坊更去中心化,也许在闪电网络基础上,比特币能像以太坊一样有能做智能合约的平台。

最近从国外传来一个叙事,认为整个行业因为比特币而诞生,最终也会大一统到比特币生态,中间所有的其他公链都是有意义的测试。

Ivan:我也是看好闪电网络。闪电网络的TPS是所有公链里最高的,理论上是4000万。现在很多区块链技术和项目没有意义,需求都是伪需求,不一定是需要区块链来做。但比特币和闪电网络是具有实际意义的,而且最有机会达成貨幣革命,例如目前一些把比特币作为法定货币的小国家,人们正式通过闪电网络来支付比特币,进行日常的交互和交易。

光华:我觉得BRC20已经结束了,没什么未来,但是Sats和Ordi这是meme币,我认为Sats的市值会涨到SHIB的三倍,因为SHIB是ETH的meme龙头,Sats是BTC的meme龙头,BTC是ETH市值的三倍。

我非常认同大山老师讲的,国外的那个叙事,我认为在未来没有BTC挂钩的都会消失,所有的公链都是比特币的测试。

我在等待比特币主网的发币协议,但这个发币协议不是目前很火的BRC20,BRC20只能做meme,而不能承载比如像Uniswap、Aave这样的大规模金融应用,Rune的思维和方向是我比较看好的,我们得建立像ERC20一样让机构能发币、退出的闭环机制。

谈到大规模金融应用,大家好像都很看好闪电网络,但是在闪电网络上发资产是有问题的,闪电网络上丢的资产、出现的骗子要比跨链桥多多了,普通用户不懂交易通道如何开启、如何防止作恶交易,那就不能轻易使用,否则很容易产生资金损失。我认为闪电网络团队要好好反思一下自己,闪电网络和以太坊的DeFi几乎同时出现,但是现在规模比以太坊上的DeFi差了太多。我个人的想法是闪电网络不要做Offline,而是做个Layer2,在链上存账本,安全性会有提升。不过闪电网络的技术在接下来的这个牛市里,不一定会发展成熟,我个人预计闪电网络完善至少需要两年,而两年后下轮牛市必然已经结束了。

有什么投资建议么?

Sonic Zhang:短线投机可以打新meme币,比如最近刚开始的Shib、Roup;中长期投资可以考虑布局比特币生态上的一层域名协议,还有例如bitmap这样的元宇宙概念的项目,收藏数字资产可以考虑Sub10k这种1万以下的收藏品,还有比特蛙、比特猴等链上早期的资产。

比特币价格在减半前的趋势应该是波段上升,这次的上涨是来自Ordinals生态的繁荣,根本原因是比特币交易闭环不断完善,现在Token未来不光可以抢,还可以直接发行销售,甚至有Swap。我有一个香港的公司叫ZeroSat Group,基于ORC Cash协议进行开发,做了解析浏览器InfoSat.io、钱包GoSat.io(基于Unisat开源钱包做的进一步开发),马上要做OshSwap,在一层网络上实现orderbook功能。

Xiaoyufu:比特币承载区块链行业发展的价值,Ordi承载的事BRC20发展的价值,所以我说Ordi是小比特币。

在早期给粉丝和朋友讲Ordi的时候,我说过BRC的发展需要经过三次购买力的释放。第一次 Unisat的出现,让我们摆脱了原始的OTC方式。第二阶段是上交易所,第三次是矿工以及交易所等主力进场推动生态发展。

在今年这个市场情绪下,简单的交易情绪已经到顶了。所以我们应该关注一些新的协议新玩法,例如BRC20和递归协议相结合,和链游相结合,铭文和域名的结合。除了比特币之外,我们也可以去其他公链看看机会。

Ordi为我们打下的繁荣江山,值得我们去做更多的发现。

另外就是现象级项目之后更多的是缅甸盘,打工盘,可能就赚你几万刀就跑。注意小资金参与。

Leo:BRC20已经很火爆了,配合这宏观大盘的行情来看,最多炒到月底,最晚就是到十二月初,接下来会有一个回调,如果没上车也不要Fomo,回调就是一个冷却期,有充足时间去考察其他项目,新的、没有被炒过的闪电网络上的项目,例如RGB协议,虽然产品和应用跟不上,但只要有资产发行就有炒作,就可以埋伏。再更长远的是DeFi,这个很考验认知和投研能力;NFT比较容易拿住,像是BTC加杠杆的资产,回报可能会很大,大家可以在冷静期去选比较有价值的标的。

大家依然可以持续关注BRC20,或者对标的Atom协议,包括Unisat,看看他们有什么动作,因为毕竟有资本支撑,做的产品也不错。

在这次比特币生态带来的狂欢中,有什么经验和忠告分享给大家么?

Ivan:Ordi半年前涨到30U,我是在18U左右开始卖,一直卖到30U,掉到10U之后我又接回来。我是看好的,但是我也要进行一下套利操作,先把本金出一部分出来,等价格跌下来再把币收回来。

分散投资,不要把全部的钱都放在同一个篮子里,一部分钱去买些比较稳定的,比如债券啊、手表啊,这些价格比较稳定,不会涨跌幅很大,但流动性很高,所以随时可以把资金抽出来再投资在比特币生态,但不能全部都投进来。

大山:币圈赚钱的经验,在第一个牛市很难赚到钱,即使赚到了也会在熊市到来前亏没,在第二个牛市很难赚不到钱。如果想要赚钱就落袋为安,先把本金出来,拿着利润去玩。

比特币生态是要多尝试,我们投过NostrAsset,它在闪电网络上发了两个币Treat和Trick,最初只试了10U,后来涨到了2000U,现在还有个项目叫UXUI测试阶段,应该会给测试网空投。本金小的不要偷懒,要努力,本金大的要配置。

Xiyu:

● 注意费用,打铭文的时候Gas费没给够,导致打铭文失败,但是Gas费也不会退回,可以稍微提高点手续费,避免浪费。

● https://xiyu.im/这是我之前总结的一些文章,有时间可以看看。

● 如果错过了没什么,起码没亏钱,别因为踏空而后悔。

● 每个人都要真正持有比特币,而不是只玩比特币生态。

● 比特币生态都是讲故事,唯一的目的是用“假币”换真币,不管你是搏傻还是投机,一定要明白这一点。

● 最后不要亏光。

比特鸭:保持空杯心态,不能有偏见。其实3月的时候就有人在聊Ordi,场外的成本可能一天之内就从1刀变成了100刀,很多人觉得是骗局,当然Ordi也花了很久才爆发,但是大家不要有偏见,多去关注市场,先研究。

不要Fomo,只要钱还在你兜里,就是安全的,就是还有机会的,不要被市场情绪引发Fomo,很多的土狗盘真的没什么意义,到现在也没什么价值了,当时因为Fomo冲了的人也有不小的损失。

想投主流的话,比特币和以太坊可以长期持有。

可以持续关注BRC20协议看看有没有下一能跑出来龙头项目。


Bitcoin ecology is about to break out and start the next bull market. Who will tell me what I can buy now? I don't want to step into the air. On April, Bitcoin Trading Network held an invitation to share industry observations and key reminders. All the speeches in this article are personal observations and sharing, which does not constitute any investment suggestions. For example, getting rich or losing money has nothing to do with the live broadcast of the platform and the guests. Please briefly introduce yourself to the guests. I entered the blockchain industry in and worked as a wallet exchange in. Now two funds are a hello, I am a fisherman. Before, I was mainly engaged in Weibo Large, which was also the total number of fans of Weibo Golden Weibo. I have also done financial work and hatched projects. However, at present, I am mainly good at the layout of hot plates around the transaction layout. What is more lively this year is the creation of the Hong Kong concept mining and promotion in January. This year's idea is to establish a fund for investing in hot money like this. I didn't start by listening to friends' introduction and then started to buy it. My first impression of it is that the old leek with a different technical background brought by technological breakthroughs is now. Co-founder of investment and research institutions excavates the first-class and second-class investment opportunities of ecology. Bitduck entered the circle in 2008. Individual developers have worked as trading terminals on the exchange chain before. Recently, they have been paying attention to the development of bitcoin agreements and friends have made a bitcoin community. Before entering the circle in 2008, they didn't pay much attention to it. It felt too noisy, but personally, they are more inclined to pay attention to Bitcoin this year. Some tutorials have attracted many people's attention. I am the mountain of Didi Capital, which was established in 2008, except for the main fund. We are still managing two supporting digital asset funds in Hong Kong. We were originally miners, so we have always been very interested in Bitcoin ecology, but the progress of Bitcoin ecology has been relatively small. This year, we saw the potential, so we transferred some of our investment to this track to make a reminder. Although it was very hot, if you didn't get on the bus before, don't worry now, because this is just the beginning, there are still many opportunities behind. I believe that all the projects of Ethereum Ecology can be found and done in Bitcoin ecology in the next year. Better Guanghua Six years ago, I was doing it before. Yes, the first chain was called online years ago. At that time, there were 10,000 people crossing it to dig tokens, but they left after digging, so there was no way to land. So we always felt that ecology could not be done until we saw and exploded this year. We decided to inherit the technology and continue to do the project we are doing now, and then by the way, we made an inscription platform, which has a considerable market share. I am the author. I was already in the market in January. After studying, I started to write an agreement to do the project, and became the first batch of casting sheets in January, among which a few people were able to get the nearest block. Later, I joined the Bitcoin Asia-Pacific community manager, built a community and met many friends for several years. What was the reason for the second explosion? I was just helping to do things. The surge was mainly on-line trading. Everyone started to issue their own coins and rushed the handling fee to a very high block, which exceeded the possibility of the block reward and made the miners feel it. When I noticed it, I suddenly realized that the reason why I didn't succeed years ago was that there was no practical application, and this time, the completely different bitcoin ecological narrative has already started to issue coins, just like when the Ethereum was able to issue coins in 2006, not to mention the market value is the upsurge of double month. The reason is that this time, because the wallet is online and the inscription trading platform is free of charge, everyone hangs it on the trading platform to sell it. Many users have paid attention to this track, but these are only catalysts. The fundamental reason is that narrative has opened the landmark event of the second explosion, which is the internal drive of the prosperity of a large number of users' experience in Shanghai. The first reason for the explosion is that the flow of token chips comes from the function of wallets. After the chips are collected in Shanghai, with the price falling, some holders lose confidence in the transaction, and more chips are slowly gathered in the main hands. The second reason is the development of ecology. I think the development must have three purchasing power releases of wallets. Being able to trade is an important purchasing power release, and participating in the project has also created a prosperous scene similar to the zoo in Ethereum. Some people say that this wave of craze is the beginning of a bull market, and some people think that this wave of craze will soon cool down. What do you think of it? The increase in bitcoin prices has led to the overflow of funds, which is good, because in the past, bitcoin prices will overflow to the counterfeit currency Ethereum or other ecosystems, but now it is closer to bitcoin. Coin ecology can undertake this part of the funds. For example, if the lightning network application catches fire in the future, maybe everyone will bring bitcoin from the exchange to the wallet of the lightning network after making money to promote the further prosperity of the lightning network. There is no need to worry about the fact that there have been two small bull markets in half a year, maybe there will be another one in three months, so there is no need to worry about it. As for the real bull market, I think it is still a little early, and the rebound is not strong and there is no repression. The feeling of rushing out for a long time, my personal judgment is that this is a rebound after unilateral decline, but it didn't rebound in the first half of the year. I think this rebound may continue, but I don't think the bull market will come for the time being. The bull market is silent. When everyone realizes it, it may not be a bull market. In fact, it has risen a lot now, but the recent bitcoin ecological fire is unpredictable. On the one hand, the technology is mature, like the isolation witness signature of the year. Yi's upgrade last year activated the concept put forward this year. The latest agreement, agreement, agreement, and agreement, Ethereum issued its own way of issuing coins this year. Later, the inscription trading platform in the wallet was very silky, and more and more people participated in the development of a new track. The bull market in Dashan is different from the bitcoin bull market. The bitcoin bull market is very certain. The Fed's interest rate hike has come to an end and will be halved next year. We have talked with relevant companies, and they think that the probability of approval in next year is now, not now, but the relevant companies ask them not to approve their infrastructure yet. There are many employees in the digital assets department, all of whom are engineers. After the infrastructure is built, the relationship between approval and bitcoin will only be two. One is to increase the trading chain, and the income will become higher. The other is to attract attention to the bitcoin ecology. People who have entered in the past two years are all rushing. Many people think that it is to develop bitcoin lightning network and bitcoin is more popular than Ethereum. 比特币今日价格行情网_okx交易所app_永续合约_比特币怎么买卖交易_虚拟币交易所平台

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