比特币铭文赛道爆发的底层原因与未来发展推断

币圈资讯 阅读:62 2024-04-22 12:50:50 评论:0
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最近比特币铭文风头正盛,从Ordinals到Atomicals 都在持续发力。但我并不打算聊ORDI或者ATOM怎么涨,或者还有铭文是否有技术价值。而是想结合一些数据来进行分析比特币铭文赛道爆发的底层原因,以及推断后续比特币铭文赛道的发展。

本文用到的数据来源为oklink链上大师。

首先来看一下最近三个月的BTC矿工收入,在8月17日时,链上手续费的贡献占比只有1.7%左右,而在11月以来,每天都在逐步提高,直至11月10日达到近期占比高峰19.57%。而这期间最重大的推动主力就是bn上了ORDI交易对。

从这一点来说,比特币铭文赛道的爆发,切实地提高了矿工们的手续费收入占比。如果将实现看到半年后,在2024年4月会发生比特币减产,区块奖励将会再次减少一半。在不考虑其他因素的情况下,把当前铭文的热度平移到未来减产之后,那么比特币铭文赛道刺激出来的手续费收入占比将会达到50%。

矿工必然是驱利的,在可预见的减产之后,在以往会选择购买新款矿机提高算力,确保自身算力优势能带来更多的区块奖励。但在倪大(X:@Phyrex_Ni)11月9日的分析文章中指出,目前美国比特币矿场在一年中的九个月内都是亏损的,再加上半导体行业的制程瓶颈,矿机算力的军备竞赛也逐渐放缓。

因此,驱利的矿工必然会寻找另一个增加收入的方式,那就是比特币铭文。

通过oklink链上大师的brc20代币信息可以看出,在Ordinals推出不到一年的时间内,市场上已经有五万多个代币被发行。再加上每个代币的mint、交易的笔数,这是一个急速膨胀的交易市场。这样的交易市场,极大刺激了比特币矿工的手续费收入增加。

无论是Ordinals还是Atomicals,还是后面未知的各种染色币协议,其本质上都在推动矿工收益的增长,而矿工们也迫切的需要一个新的收益来源,那么比特币铭文赛道就会光荣的承担这个责任。矿工也会成为比特币铭文赛道的一大主力。

但值得注意的是,矿工们对比特币铭文赛道需要的是更大、更多的交易次数,而铭文的价格涨跌只是实现的手段,手续费收入占比的提高才是目的。

基于上面对比特币铭文赛道的扩张持肯定态度后,我推断下一个会在比特币铭文赛道中会爆发的东西应该是铭文代打代铸造的工具类产品。对于绝大部分普通人而言,自行安装配置一个全节点然后去打铭文,虽然成本上更低,但操作门槛也更高,对电脑的存储硬件也有一定的大容量要求。

因此想要快速扩张铭文赛道的广度,那更简单更便捷的服务型工具是必不可少的。比如头部的交易所已经陆续接入比特币铭文,开始支持铭文的铸造与交易市场。随着产品迭代,比特币铭文的相关操作复杂度将会越来越低。

最后,我想说的是,即使赛道会越来越宽,但并不意味着具备价值投资。我个人会把现在比特币铭文类比于2017年前后的erc20代币滥发的时代。在erc20代币取得绝对性优势之前,市场上普遍是各自做一条链或者fork一条链,然后发原生代币。由于各家公链的技术栈不同,导致交易所对接上币的难度速度也不同,直至erc20代币实现了大范围的统一,让交易所得以快速上币推向市场。

目前比特币铭文也正处于这个赛道的初级时代,但最终会在各类比特币铭文协议中出现一个大一统的协议,最终抓住整个比特币铭文市场。当前铭文赛道只解决了比特币生态资产发行的问题,当有协议或者项目能解决比特币生态资产的应用场景,那才是有了价值投资的基础。


Recently, the bitcoin inscription has been in full swing, but I don't want to talk about how it has risen or whether the inscription has technical value. I want to combine some data to analyze the underlying reasons for the outbreak of the bitcoin inscription track and infer the subsequent development of the bitcoin inscription track. The data source used in this paper is the master on the chain. First of all, let's take a look at the contribution of miners' income in the last three months, which is only about the monthly fee, but it has been gradually increasing every day since June until. The recent peak of the proportion reached on January, and the most important driving force during this period was trading. From this point of view, the outbreak of bitcoin inscription track has really increased the proportion of miners' fee income. If it is realized that bitcoin production reduction will occur in June after half a year, the block reward will be reduced by half again. If the current inscription fever is shifted to the future production reduction without considering other factors, the proportion of fee income stimulated by bitcoin inscription track will reach miners. It is inevitable that after the foreseeable production reduction, the profit-driven miners will choose to buy new mining machines to improve their computing power to ensure that their computing power advantage can bring more block rewards. However, in Ni Dayue's analysis article, it is pointed out that the current bitcoin mines in the United States are losing money in nine months of the year, and the process bottleneck in the semiconductor industry is gradually slowing down. Therefore, the miners who drive profits will inevitably find another way to increase their income, that is, the bitcoin inscription will be passed through the generation of the chain masters. It can be seen from the coin information that in less than one year, more than 50,000 tokens have been issued in the market, plus the number of transactions per token. This is a rapidly expanding trading market, which has greatly stimulated the increase of the fee income of bitcoin miners. Whether it is or the unknown colored coin agreements, it is essentially promoting the growth of miners' income, and miners are in urgent need of a new source of income, so the bitcoin inscription track will be honored. Miners who bear this responsibility will also become a major force in the Bitcoin inscription track, but it is worth noting that miners need more transactions on the Bitcoin inscription track, and the price rise and fall of the inscription is only the means to achieve it. The increase in the proportion of handling fees is the purpose. Based on the positive attitude towards the expansion of the Bitcoin inscription track, I infer that the next thing that will break out in the Bitcoin inscription track should be the tool products that are cast for the vast majority of ordinary people. Generally speaking, installing and configuring a full node by yourself and then typing inscriptions is lower in cost, but the operating threshold is higher, which also requires a certain amount of storage hardware for computers. Therefore, if you want to quickly expand the breadth of the inscription track, simpler and more convenient service tools are essential. For example, the head exchange has been connected to Bitcoin inscriptions one after another and started to support the casting and trading market of inscriptions. With product iteration, the related operational complexity of Bitcoin inscriptions will become lower and lower. Finally, I want to say. Even though the track will be wider and wider, it doesn't mean that it has valuable investment. Personally, I will compare the current bitcoin inscription to the era of spamming around the year. Before the tokens gained absolute advantage, the market generally made a chain or a chain and then issued original tokens. Because of the different technology stack of each public chain, the difficulty and speed of the exchange docking coins were different until the tokens were unified in a large scale, so that the exchange could quickly put coins on the market. At present, the bitcoin inscription is also here. The primary era of the track, but eventually there will be a unified agreement among all kinds of bitcoin inscription agreements, and finally seize the entire bitcoin inscription market. At present, the inscription track only solves the issue of bitcoin ecological assets. When there are agreements or projects that can solve the application scenarios of bitcoin ecological assets, that is the basis for valuable investment. 比特币今日价格行情网_okx交易所app_永续合约_比特币怎么买卖交易_虚拟币交易所平台

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