BTC生态吹响新一轮牛市的号角 铭文做对了什么?

币圈资讯 阅读:46 2024-04-22 12:45:31 评论:0
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作者:加密韋馱,AC Capital 来源:X(原推特)

八月份我就提过,新一轮牛市的启动方式是新的发行机制、交易机制和做市机制带来傻钱。现在再回头看,不论铭文也好、Friendtech也罢,都印证了这个观点——不要被技术、叙事、正统性裹挟。币圈的本质是资产,而资产只跟筹码分布、持有成本、交易成本、做市成本有关。

也许你还看不起铭文,认为它是倒退。但不可否认,新一轮市场的号角,是被BTC生态吹响了。

铭文做对了什么?

1. 使用已有共识:BTC共识是crypto最强共识且与技术发展无关,不需要证明任何东西。在已有的强共识上做产品要比做了产品去找共识简单几个数量级

2. 公平发射meme最大化: 每一个资产都有meme属性。如果meme是一个项目技术、叙事、价格、团队、文化背景、事件的总和,那么其中二级市场最买账的一定是公平发射,没有之一。从POW时代一直到ICO、DeFi,散户对参与机会平等的铸币权分配制度(至少理论上公平)的追求从未改变。相比Friendtech和ETH土狗,铭文在这一点做到了极致,且从默认分发规则层面上就做到了固定(没有合约没法骚操作)。这是ETH体系里没有的。

3. 天然持有成本:BTC具有费用高易拥堵的特性,这对于资产发行并不是坏事。失败的交易以及拥堵导致的矿工费溢价,导致铭文初始持有成本非常高,从根源上提高了砸盘门槛,增加了操盘的可行性。

4. 低流动性市场:市场快速从无到有必须有庄,而坐庄第一要务是最小化做市成本。在这里,铭文低效率的OTC交易市场反而是优点:坐庄不需要以太土狗那样的前置流动性锁定成本;没有智能合约,导致市场定价逻辑其实是中心化,也不需要NFT那样扫完地板才能拉。极端点,自成交一笔就能视觉“拉盘”。

5. 低开发部署成本: Fork一套铭文协议的开发成本并不高,更不要提直接发的四字土狗。有团队在Alt L1上搞铭文5天就弄好了demo。即使一个项目运营没搞好,换个名字叙事也能重头来过

因此,铭文协议上每天都可以大批涌现标的,这样流动性反而不会被分散。和ETH土狗一样,用户不可能大资金冲,只可能天天赌,小资金买彩票。客观上这增加了资金的粘性,让协议上的$BTC实现了事实的通缩,形成了$BTC的ICO(拆分盘)时刻。

铭文坐庄尚未解决的问题:

坐庄ROI问题:起盘子是为了赚钱,无论是恶性rug还是良性的社区博弈。但因为发射机制问题,在收筹码这件事上,项目方和散户是同一起跑线。并且由于机器人的存在,以太坊土狗那种鸟悄发射的模式也不可取。在没有智能合约的情况下,除交易市场项目方尚且能收点服务费,其他铭文项目方中只有矿工项目方可以通过拉高gas以及抢跑来解决抢筹和收益问题。一个知名铭文项目方在5月曾联系我想上SUI生态,但却明确拒绝在SUI做铭文,理由就是不赚钱

这也不难理解为什么铭文项目方开始想办法双链发射,甚至回到玩预售的老路上。随着牛市的深入,高标准的公平发射大概率会越来越走形,靠回中心化的老路,毕竟铭文是交易所模型,而交易所第一服务对象是LP

从铭文的发展学到了什么?

如果你要做一个低流动性市场资产,那么你可以:

1. 从强共识生态出发,尽可能强化公平发射、团队无法做恶这个meme

2. 要用户拿的久,就变相提高持有成本;要用户玩的长,就提高标的涌现速度。二者至少得其一

3. 尽可能降低在市场共识形成前得拉盘成本,降低前置流动性需求,握住定价主导权

4. 通过相对隐蔽的方式曲线救国低成本吸筹,或卖水逻辑获利

5. 开发与运营物料尽量采用可复制结构,开盘成功3分力7分运。中台化运作盘子起的越多单位成本越低

另外如果要制造一个铭文协议,基本上就是indexer+dex+wallet,制作时间成本视具体链的状况定,另留1周审计。如果现在开始计划仿盘你需要确定至少一个半月以后铭文叙事仍然热门。


The author encrypted Wei Tuo's original Twitter source. In August, I mentioned that the new round of bull market was started by a new issuance mechanism, trading mechanism and market-making mechanism, which brought silly money. Now, looking back, no matter whether it is inscriptions or not, it confirms this view. The essence of the coin circle is assets, and assets are only related to the distribution of chips, transaction costs and market-making costs. Maybe you still despise the inscriptions and think it is retrogressive, but it is undeniable that the horn of the new round of market has been blown by ecology. Regarding what to use, the existing consensus is the strongest consensus and has nothing to do with technological development. It is not necessary to prove that it is simpler to make a product on the existing strong consensus than to make a product to find a consensus. It is several orders of magnitude to maximize fair launch. Every asset has attributes. If it is the sum of a project's technical narrative price, team culture and background events, then the secondary market must buy fair launch the most. No one has been reasonable about the distribution system of coin rights with equal opportunities for participation from the times to the retail investors. In theory, the pursuit of fairness has never changed. Compared with the local dog inscription, it is extremely fixed at this point and can't be operated without a contract from the level of default distribution rules. This is a natural holding cost that is not available in the system, which has the characteristics of high cost and easy congestion. This is not a bad thing for asset issuance. The failed transaction and the miner's fee premium caused by congestion have led to the high initial holding cost of the inscription, which has fundamentally improved the threshold of trading and increased the feasibility of low liquidity market. The first priority of building a village from scratch is to minimize the market-making cost. Here, the low-efficiency trading market is an advantage. Building a village does not need the pre-liquidity lock-in cost like an ethereal dog. Without smart contracts, the market pricing logic is actually centralized, and it is not necessary to sweep the floor like that to pull the extreme point. The development cost of a set of inscription agreements is not high, not to mention the direct delivery of four-character soil dogs. Even if the operation of a project is not done well, the narrative can be started all over again. Therefore, a large number of targets can emerge every day in the inscription agreement, so that the liquidity will not be dispersed. Like the local dog, users can't rush with large funds every day, but they can only gamble with small funds to buy lottery tickets. Objectively, this increases the stickiness of funds and realizes the deflation of the agreement, forming a split plate moment. The unsolved problem of sitting in the village is to make money, whether it is a vicious or benign community. Game, but because of the launch mechanism, the project and retail investors are at the same starting line in the matter of collecting chips, and because of the existence of robots, the bird-silent launch mode of Ethereum local dog is not advisable. In the absence of intelligent contracts, the project can still collect some service fees except for the trading market. Among other inscription projects, only the miner project can solve the problem of grabbing chips and profits by pulling up and rushing away. A well-known inscription project contacted me last month to go to ecology, but explicitly refused to do inscription management. It is not difficult to understand why the inscription project started to find ways to double-chain launch or even return to the old road of pre-sale. With the deepening of the bull market, the high-standard fair launch will become more and more distorted and return to the old road of centralization. After all, the inscription is an exchange model and the first service object of the exchange has learned something from the development of the inscription. If you want to be a low-liquidity market asset, then you can strengthen the fair launch team as much as possible from the strong consensus ecology. This is necessary. If users take it for a long time, they will increase the holding cost in disguise. If users play for a long time, they will increase the emergence speed of the target. At least one of them must be reduced as much as possible. Before the market consensus is formed, they must reduce the cost of selling, reduce the demand for pre-liquidity, grasp the pricing dominance, save the country through a relatively hidden way curve, attract funds at a low cost or sell water for profit, and develop and operate materials as much as possible with a reproducible structure. The more units are distributed successfully, the lower the unit cost will be. In addition, if an inscription agreement is to be made, basically. That is, the production time cost depends on the situation of the specific chain, and another week is reserved for the audit. If you start planning the imitation disk now, you need to make sure that the inscription narrative will still be popular at least one and a half months later. 比特币今日价格行情网_okx交易所app_永续合约_比特币怎么买卖交易_虚拟币交易所平台

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