新范式对旧范式的价值虹吸
Ethscriptions Facet 不仅仅是铭文革命，更将是整个以太坊生态的一场革命。
所有铭文项目，我最看好facet的源于铭文、高于铭文。因为目前生态形成的基础是因为有智能合约，各种代币有关联性。现在Facet笨蛋合约，也可以让以太坊铭文代币建立关联、可组合，这是形成生态系统的关键。不是无数个毫无关联的代币系统（即使有的概念上令人心动，比如POW），那是一盘散沙。Ethscription facet的gas 有可以降低到像Arbitrum Nitro的程度，对于其他L2在这一点上完全是降维打击，因为这是在以太坊主网上实现的。
比特币生态很难形成。现在只不过是链上可以随便发币，但没有智能合约功能。RGB能形成生态估计要两个牛熊以后，甚至永远不能形成生态。没有智能合约功能的链，链上的币永远都是meme，也就是代币之间没有关联性，因为智能合约是一个链上生态形成的基础。
Facet 进入倒计时，11月30号启动。我的判断，Facet启动以后，很快就会出现原生的超级土狗（当然第一个原生代币有一定意义，另外还会有其他资本情绪催生出来的大狗、金狗），市值会大于现在我们看到的正处于火热当中的各种铭文代币。通常往往新网络启动，会有超级土狗在上面诞生。之后几个月时间，就会诞生出各种创新的项目，也会有顶级DeFi部署其上。生态逐渐形成。明年下半年，会成为新牛市的主流基础设施，再到以后，以太坊主网90%以上的DeFi项目都会建立在Facet上。
交易成本和交易的价值不是一个概念，成本是完成价值交易所需要付出的。这个成本降低。而且现在也可以做成rollup完成。索引链下以后会去中心化的。但资产在以太坊主网。
源于铭文，超越铭文。ethscription和其他铭文不一样，是更高维度的，有可能让以太坊生态发生变革的，而且这种进化的动力并不会是因为V神支不支持、不会因为马斯克喊不喊单而产生，这种进化动力来自自然法则，那就是生态要自然的、自发的向成本更低、效率更高进化，这是物理第一性原则，与名人牛人无关。
ethscription facet的gas还可以降低到比以前想象到的更低，甚至有可能达到像智能链、Arbitrum的程度。如果做到像其他rollup L2那样批量交易一次上链，对于其他L2在这一点上完全是降维打击。其他L2就退缩到只有吸引游戏之类的应用了，根本无法吸引DeFi应用。果然打败康师傅的不是统一，而是美团。
Ethscriptions Facet 最大价值的应用还将是DeFi，会有顶级DeFi项目入驻，而不应该是GameFi，GameFi还是去以太坊L2，或许各种以太坊L2以后吸引项目方和用户的就是GameFi，因为DeFi更注重去中心化安全性，GameFi更注重TPS。其上也会诞生其他类型无数创新的项目。
基本上判断一个加密项目以后能否成功，从最开始就能判断80%了。比如看到某项目融资多少多少，这类项目以后基本上大部分不可能成功。成功的项目不是这样起来的。比如Facebook，比如QQ都是开始自然有种子用户，而且种子用户有很强的认同，并且没有初始外部投资。还有一个是，最怕的由做投资的人创办的，就是从原本某个投资机构里自己下场创业的，基本上这种结局开始就已经看到了。当然这里说的融资，是那种还没运行还没种子用户还没产品的那种，他们开局就是融资，而不是产品。
我曾经预测过的项目，绝大多数后来是成功的项目，其中有的后来市值百亿，比如UNI还没发币之前就是玩过很长时间的玩家，知道这个一定会火爆，后来市值超过百亿美金，进入TOP10。现在说的eths，也已经走过了早期的艰难过程，即将开始新的航程。除非创始团队突然发生不可预测的事件，另外即使他们再发项目方代币也是很多年后的事，这可以参照UNI，参照ARB，参照Opensea现在还没发币，eths也会因为创世代币保持这个领域第一的位置，类似加密朋克和无聊猿那样。
越是用旧模式的代币分发越可能存在问题，世界是向前走的，现在如果还要相信私募代投那就危险了。实际上加密货币的每一轮牛市本质是代币分发范式的进化。2013年比特、莱特、狗狗 。2017年ICO，牛逼的公链概念币层出不穷 。2020年Defi之夏，狗狗SHIB ，Gamefi ，算法稳定币是Defi里最疯狂的，左脚踩右脚螺旋式上升 。2021年NFT之夏 。2023年 比特币铭文、以太坊铭文，各种铭文代币 。
Bankless说本轮牛市缺乏内生动力：“2024年的牛市目前似乎有望成为现货ETF批准的牛市？因为外部资本有能力购买BTC和ETH？”。其实就是在2019年的年底，也没有人预测到2020会爆发出DeFi之夏。所以现在看2024年牛市会出现什么内生动力还是为时太早。我相信明年到了比特币减半之后，还是会爆发出现在我们无法想象的新范式革命，有可能是ethscription facet带来的新范式，比特币RGB也有可能出现大规模应用。
实际上加密货币的每一轮牛市本质是代币分发范式的进化，只有更新的范式才能引领方向，这个方向就是公平、治理最小化、无治理是最理想。历史上看比特币出现就是突破传统，比特币仿盘里最成功的莱特币正是抓住了核心。后来以太坊上的1C0出现突然刺激了传统融资模式，往往很多项目涉及资金规模很大，这是第二个牛市，所以很多国家禁止，的确后来大部分都烟消云散，又回归到公平发行，第三个牛市出现流动性挖矿，让DeFi兴起，去中心化应用兴起，大资金进入DeFi。
资产发行新范式是牛市发动机，随后激发起大规模资金进入大量的新范式项目中，真正出现新范式虹吸旧范式的牛市。而在明年后年的牛市，也一定会看到资产发行新范式革命，新范式大规模虹吸旧范式资金，但在这发生之前，没有人能想象到到底是什么，无法想象。
加密领域有个特点，就是市场自动奖励原创。模仿的永远是追随，是仿盘。不像互联网，互联网因为有墙保护，或者有巨额风险投资铸就的壁垒，仿盘项目也可以做的很大，甚至超过原创 比如QQ，比如淘宝。加密领域不一样，完全全球市场，信息几乎瞬间到达全世界，全世界所有的人自由博弈，不用说技术壁垒（比如L2），就是有时资金也无法铸造高墙壁垒，大的小的同台竞技，这里是赤裸裸的新鱼吃旧鱼，快鱼吃慢鱼。
最近讨论比较激烈的是V神文章，V神自己发表建议和想法本来是一个很正常的事，但整个区块链领域却出现盲目崇拜，凡是V的想法就一定是未来必然方向。其实我是坚信万链归一到以太坊的，但这是万类生态归于以太坊，这种归一并不是V神驱动形成的，而是自然法则驱动的，自动的强者越强，大者恒大，马太效应起作用。如果论生态多样性，任何链都比不过以太坊，以后也是。当然论市值，BTC很长时间会大于ETH。BTC市值大于ETH，和以太坊生态的多样性远远大于其他任何链，这是两个不同的维度。
网上看到有人说比特币生态会用1年的时间，走完以太坊5年的历程。这个说的太夸张了。我认为两个牛熊周期都不一定。其实RGB很早就有了。闪电网络本身问题很多，连Nostr创始人都觉得闪电网络太糟糕了。加密世界有个特点，先发优势造成的马太效应要远远大于互联网领域。除了以太坊和其他所有公链的对比之外，还有各种领域都是如此。
看到一个网友的观点，超额收益来源于偏见，多数人看不起看不到的东西才会越来越值钱。我想到就像很多人炒SOL，他就是再高手也比不过2019年买入SOL的人。今天看这个热冲这，明天看那个热冲那个，拉长一个牛熊周期看，很可能这样做，连一直只拿比特币都不如。当然大于比特币回报的项目肯定有，比如上个牛市之前的SOL。现在再看下一个牛市，就是如何寻找下一个SOL。
自从friendtech之后，大热起来的各类项目，我猜大部分是国人做的，即使有的协议是海外项目方，但部署代币的人都是国人。这也说明一个方向，可能国人做的大市值项目在即将到来的新一轮牛市中将“可能”会占有较重的比例，这其实是好事。上一轮牛市基本上没有国人大市值的项目，这种恶化越来越糟糕，国人盘成为垃圾项目的代名词。只有大环境繁荣，而不是贫瘠，才能诞生伟大的项目。
UniSat Wallet 宣布推出开发者服务（Developer Service)。任何一个项目，看其未来前景，就是看能否形成开发者社区，能否聚集顶级开发者。目前比特币铭文，最大的开发者社区可能在Bitmap。以太坊铭文，ethscription Facet 一定能形成大规模开发者社区，并且有大量顶级开发者。现在一切都是刚刚开始，未来无法预测。
铭文的火爆带来了资产发行和凝聚共识的新范式。以前是项目方先做资产发行（这里面分成有预留和无预留两类，有VC的通常会有预留，无论是代币还是NFT），再分发到散户。现在是先有铭文资产（即铭文代币或者NFT），如果社区驱动起来了，那么会有项目方利用这个已经起来的代币或者NFT做项目代币，因为项目方主要是想利用已经起来的用户基础，这样更容易获取用户的社区共识。早期打铭文代币的相当于种子投资，后面个人买相当于天使投资，接下来就要ABCDEF轮投资了，需要机构投资。
前几天那个做跨链互操作的就没理解到这一点，虽然他宣布的想法很好，要为ethscription facet建设服务设施，但他没有理解到新范式下要有新的方法，他自行发行并事先打了很多scop，这就还是以前的预留套路，如果他自己不部署任何代币，自然有社区的人自发的疯狂的打他们项目名代币，然后他再以这个火爆的同名代币作为自己项目代币，将会受到社区追捧，而且随着他以后产品建设，持续追捧，币价越高他的产品流量越高，通过其他方法也能获得现金流。
eths就是这样新范式下的典范。eths并不是ethscription项目方部署的，但项目方认同并多次说在facet启动开始的时候是唯一的以太坊铭文桥接资产，这等同于认可eths是项目方平台币的意义。也就是说，项目方自己并没有发行平台币，而是用了一个已经是有最大共识的以太坊铭文资产做平台币。这是一种新的趋向。
发现一个事，铭文热开始从BRC20转向BTC NFT了，另外也在向闪电网络和其他链溢出。这是正常的热点轮动，后面也会轮动到传统的智能合约项目，以及其他公链平台币。创新是任何热点的发动机，而资金流入越来越大，直到溢出到其他加密领域，从新锐到平庸，完成一个热度的周期，无论大周期还是小周期。
看到有人提到一个观点：AI没有找到内驱力，就永远无法涌现出智能。我想AI如果能产生价值，让人类为他服务，他就有了内驱力，生产更多的价值。这里的价值直接用加密货币量化，用于AI购买更多人类的服务，包括供电、供数据。
今天看到消息，OpenAI 宣布领导层换届，创始人山姆·奥特曼离开公司。有人说奥特曼带领团队开发出了具有自主意识的人工智能，在未来的某一天人工智能觉醒要毁灭人类，未来的人坐时光机穿越到今天，通过说服董事会成功逆转了这种历史。
公告称：“Altman的离职是在董事会经过慎重审查之后得出的结论，他在与董事会的沟通中始终不坦诚，阻碍了董事会履行职责的能力。董事会不再对他继续领导OpenAI的能力充满信心”。
原本以为美国每隔几年就会出现新一代科技巨头，OpenAI将会成为新一代万亿、十万亿市值的科技巨头。但不同的是，这次是创始人“被出走”。据说Sam没有持股，这一点就会被动。另外小道消息说Sam训练出来了有自主意识的AGI，这个突破的模型没告诉董事会，而员工们觉得Sam不懂行也不积极参与日常工作。
任何人都希望有所依，尤其是急需的时候，如失业的时候，有病的时候，老的时候，即使没有任何工作的人，完全不工作的人。全民基本保障体系会因为技术进化而先建立起来，技术越先进越发达越会建立，并且还可以无理由的让这种因技术进步带来的福利遍及全世界，乃至最贫穷国家和地区。区块链技术和人工智能技术正在让这种天方夜谭变成未来的真实可能。因为大比例财富的创造也可以由机器去完成，去中心化完成公平分发。但演化过程中并不能杜绝财富集中，公平分发与演化中的集中并不矛盾，也是自然法则，但前提是规则公平。
微博里有人评论“天真无邪”。奥特曼是理想主义者，而世界往往由理想主义者引领的。
It is not only the inscription revolution, but also the revolution of the whole ecology of Ethereum. I am most optimistic about all the inscription projects because the inscription is higher than the inscription, because the foundation of the current ecological formation is that there are smart contracts, and all kinds of tokens are related. Now stupid contracts can also make Ethereum inscription tokens related and combinable. This is the key to forming an ecosystem, not countless unrelated token systems, even if some concepts are exciting, such as it is fragmented, which can be reduced to the level of image. He is a complete blow to the dimensionality reduction at this point, because it is difficult to form the bitcoin ecology realized on the main network of Ethereum. Now, it is just that coins can be issued at will on the chain, but there is no smart contract function to form an ecology. It is estimated that after two bulls and bears, it will never even form an ecology. The coins on the chain without smart contract function will always be, that is, there is no correlation between tokens, because smart contracts are the basis for the ecological formation on the chain, and soon after my judgment is started. There will be a native super local dog. Of course, the first native token has certain significance. In addition, there will be other big dogs born out of capital emotions. The market value of the golden dog will be greater than the various inscription tokens that we are seeing now. Usually, new networks will start, and a super local dog will be born on it. After a few months, various innovative projects will be born, and top-level deployment will be carried out on it. The ecology will gradually form, and it will become the mainstream infrastructure of the new bull market in the second half of next year, and then the main network of Ethereum. The above projects will be based on the transaction cost and transaction value, which is not a concept. The cost is reduced to complete the value transaction, and now it can be decentralized after the completion of the index chain. However, the assets in the main network of Ethereum are different from other inscriptions in higher dimensions, which may change the ecology of Ethereum, and the driving force of this evolution will not be because the gods do not support it, and it will not be produced because Musk does not shout orders. This kind of evolutionary power comes from the law of nature, that is, the ecology should naturally and spontaneously evolve to lower cost and higher efficiency. This is the principle of physical firstness, which has nothing to do with celebrities and cattle. It can be reduced to a lower level than previously thought, and it may even reach the level of intelligent chain. If you do batch trading like others, it will completely reduce the dimension for others at this point, and others will shrink back to attracting applications such as games, which can not attract applications at all. It is not unified to defeat Master Kong. However, the most valuable application of Meituan will be that there will be top-level projects settled in, instead of going to Ethereum. Perhaps all kinds of Ethereum attract the project and users because they pay more attention to decentralization and security, and countless other innovative projects will also be born on it. Basically, we can judge whether an encrypted project can succeed in the future from the very beginning, for example, if we see how much a project is financed, most projects that are unlikely to succeed in the future will not start like this. For example, there are naturally seed users at the beginning, and the seed users have strong recognition and no initial external investment. There is also one that is most afraid of being founded by investors, that is, they started their own business in an original investment institution. Basically, this ending has been seen since the beginning. Of course, the financing mentioned here is the kind that has not been operated yet, and the seed users have not yet produced products. Most of the projects I have predicted are successful. Some of them have a market value of 10 billion later, for example, players who have played for a long time before issuing coins know that this will be popular. Later, the market value will exceed 10 billion US dollars, and now they have gone through the early difficult process and are about to start a new voyage unless the founding team suddenly has unpredictable events. In addition, even if they issue project tokens again, it will be many years later, which can be used for reference. If they have not issued coins yet, they will maintain the first position in this field because of the creation tokens. The more secret punk and boring ape use the old model to distribute tokens, the more likely there will be problems. The world is moving forward. Now, if we still believe in private placement, it will be dangerous. In fact, the essence of every bull market of cryptocurrency is the evolution of token distribution paradigm. Bitlet Dog Year is the year of awesome public chain concept. In summer, dog algorithm is the craziest in the world. In summer, bitcoin inscriptions and inscriptions in Ethereum say that this bull market lacks endogenous factors. At present, the bull market in the year of power seems to be expected to become a spot-approved bull market, because external capital has the ability to buy it, and in fact, no one predicted that summer would break out at the end of 2008, so it is still too early to see what endogenous power will emerge in the bull market in 2008. I believe that next year, after bitcoin is halved, there will still be a new paradigm revolution that we can't imagine now, which may bring about a new paradigm, and Bitcoin may also be widely used. In fact, it is the essence of every round of bull market that encrypts money. It is the evolution of token distribution paradigm. Only a newer paradigm can lead the way. This direction is fair governance. Minimizing non-governance is the most ideal. Historically, the emergence of Bitcoin is to break through the core of the traditional bitcoin imitation. Later, the emergence of Litecoin in the Ethereum suddenly stimulated the traditional financing model. Many projects often involve a large scale of funds. This is the second bull market, so many countries banned it, and most of them disappeared and returned to the fair distribution of the third cow. The emergence of liquidity mining in the market has led to the rise of decentralized applications and the rise of large funds into the new paradigm of asset issuance. It is a bull market engine, and then it has stimulated large-scale funds to enter a large number of new paradigm projects. The bull market with new paradigm siphoning the old paradigm will surely see the new paradigm revolution of asset issuance and the new paradigm siphoning the old paradigm funds on a large scale in the next year and the year after, but before this happens, no one can imagine what it is. One feature of the encryption field is that the market automatically rewards originality. Imitation is always follow-up, unlike the Internet, which is not like the barriers created by wall protection or huge venture capital. Imitation projects can also be done greatly or even exceed originality. For example, Taobao encryption field is different. Complete global market information almost instantly reaches the whole world, and all people in the world can play freely. Needless to say, technical barriers, for example, even sometimes funds can't cast high walls and barriers. Here are naked new fish, eat old fish, eat fast fish and eat slow fish. Recently, there have been heated discussions about God's articles, and God himself has published suggestions and ideas. However, it is 比特币今日价格行情网_okx交易所app_永续合约_比特币怎么买卖交易_虚拟币交易所平台
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