一场不属于以太坊和 VC 们的牛市

币圈资讯 阅读:47 2024-04-22 12:34:29 评论:0
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撰文:流浪的松鼠

这是一场让人猝不及防的小牛市。

偶然和几个 VC 朋友沟通,能明显感觉到他们的焦虑,VC 们也被这波异类牛市搞得异常 FOMO 和不安,原因很简单:市场很火热,但是与他们无关

无论是韭菜们集体上头的 BRC20\ARC20 等铭文,一路疯涨的 Solana 及其生态,亦或 KAS、TAO、ZEPH 等 POW 生态还是 Kuji、INJ 等 Cosmos 生态,凡是大涨的都和他们无关,他们也没有机会参与其中。

一方面受制于基金结构,大多数 VC 只能投资一级市场,同时绝大多数 VC 本质上是以太坊生态 VC,曾经借此收获时代红利,于是更加坚定信念,将自己牢牢捆绑在以太坊的生态列车上,大手笔押注 Layer2、账户抽象等一切 Vitalik 所倡导的东西。

于是,出现了吊诡的一幕:VC 们都在土耳其谈论 Layer2、全链游戏、自治世界、好生热闹;韭菜散户们都在冲各类土狗 BRC20、小市值 POW 币,矿工们在重复“Kas 是下一个比特币”……平行的世界,不同的热闹

这场资产的“小牛市”与以太坊生态无关,那么自然与 VC 们无关。

纵观这次小牛市的主线,“MEME”是绕不开的关键词,过去 MEME 是牛市周期尾部的标志,如今却成为了开始,当市场缺乏性感的新叙事,那么 MEME 就接过重任,成为了最简单直接的牛市启动机,只是这一次的 MEME 是在比特币之上

以太坊最大的叙事是什么?

一个最简单的回答是发币,是曾经的 ICO 成就了以太坊

上一轮牛市,新公链们也可以发币,并且速度更快,试图以此挑战以太坊,但是相比之下,缺乏“正统性”(不清真)。

如今在比特币网络上发币,速度更慢更拥堵,但是更具“正统性”,哪怕只是 MEME。

MEME 恰恰是 VC 们的天敌,他是对 VC 叙事的一种解构,VC 投资往往喜欢在备忘录(MEMO)写上赛道、团队、解决的问题等各种分析,以自证投资的合理性,而 MEME 就是彻底撕碎 MEMO,没有实用性,不解决任何回答也不需要VC……

无论是比特币上的 MEME 还是和比特币一样的 POW 资产,都不属于 VC 主导,而是社区优先

过去,社区是给项目赋能,而在 MEME 的浪潮中,项目是给社区赋能,已经有项目选择未来直接用大热的社区型代币作为生态 Token,而不是自己发行。

世界,仿佛一夜之间变了天。

一个经营投资(炒币)工作室的“庄家大哥” Teng 也反复告诫身边人,如果还抱着过去的思维,去死守以太坊或者 L2 等资产,那么大概率会错过这波牛市

他总结认为,这波小牛市由游资和情绪所主导,与所谓的基本面无关,以太坊生态过于笨重,早被各类 VC 门阀用数百亿美元资金占满了坑,进入等于给 VC 们接盘,只有傻子才愿意,而比特币生态,这种非常早期且公平发售或者 Solana 这种洗盘彻底,浴火重生的项目才更加有机会。

资金总选择最薄弱的地方进行突波,游资也会选择去介入一些筹码相当分散,且在 Binance\Upbit 等上线,流动性较好的项目,比如 TRB、Gas 等,背后都有游资的参与,Teng 选择跟随游资进入,今年也收获颇丰。

一个去土耳其参加 Devconnect 的朋友在归国之时发出感慨,以太坊生态越来越无聊,冷饭新炒,没啥新东西

尽管现在越来越多人看衰以太坊生态,抱怨 Vitalik 已经成为太上皇(或是被动),项目方只要成功“TO V 神”获得认可,就可以凭借这黄马褂在 VC 那儿获得高溢价,以太坊生态越来越讲究“血统(关系)”。

但在笔者看来,以太坊生态仍然肩负着“实现区块链大规模应用”的重任,MEME 持续肆掠不仅会瓦解 VC,甚至也会瓦解整个 Web3 与区块链的宏大叙事:

“说了那么久的‘更加公平的下一代互联网’,‘区块链的大规模应用’……到头来才发现大家需要的不过只是一个炒作标的而已,其他都不过是包装和噱头,管你是以太坊还是比特币,AI 还是区块链…… 这个市场不需要 VC,有赌徒就行,创新的终点不是硅谷,而是深圳。”

但愿以上情形不要发生,也但愿无论是以太坊还是 Solana、POW 还是 POS,大家都有一个美好的未来。


This is a small bull market that people can't catch off guard. I can clearly feel their anxiety when I communicate with a few friends by chance. The reason is very simple: the market is very hot, but it has nothing to do with them, whether it is the inscription on the leek collective, its ecology or its ecology, it has nothing to do with them, and they have no chance to participate in it. On the one hand, they are limited by the fund structure, and most of them can only invest in the primary market. At that time, most of them were in essence the ecology of Ethereum, which used to reap the dividends of the times, so they were more determined to bind themselves firmly on the ecological train of Ethereum, and made a big bet on the abstract account and other things advocated. So there was a paradoxical scene. Everyone was talking about the whole chain game in Turkey, and the autonomous world was full of excitement. The leek retail investors were rushing at all kinds of local dogs, and the miners were repeating that it was the next bitcoin parallel world, and the small bull market of this asset was different from the ecology of Ethereum. Looking at the main line of this small bull market, we can't avoid the key words. It used to be the symbol of the end of the bull market cycle, but now it has become the beginning. When the market lacks a sexy new narrative, it has taken over the heavy responsibility and become the simplest and most direct bull market starter. Only this time, what is the biggest narrative of Ethereum? The simplest answer is that coin issuing was once an achievement in the last round of bull market in Ethereum, and new public chains can also issue coins and try to challenge it at a faster speed. Taifang, but in contrast, lacks legitimacy. Nowadays, it is slower and more congested to send money on the bitcoin network, but it is more legitimate, even if it is just our natural enemy. He is a deconstructive investment in narrative, and often likes to write various analyses such as the problems solved by the track team in the memo to prove the rationality of the investment, but it is completely shredded, which is not practical and does not solve any answers. No matter whether it is bitcoin or assets like bitcoin, it is not dominant but community priority. In the past, the community was empowering the project, but in the current wave, the project was empowering the community. There are already projects to choose. In the future, the hot community tokens will be directly used as ecology instead of self-distribution. It seems that the world has changed overnight. A banker who runs an investment and speculation studio has repeatedly warned people around him that if he still holds the past thinking and sticks to the Ethereum or waits for assets, he will probably miss this bull market. He concluded that this bull market is dominated by hot money and emotions and has nothing to do with the so-called fundamentals. The ecology of Ethereum is too heavy, and it has been filled with tens of billions of dollars by all kinds of gate valves. Entering the pit is equal to giving us orders. Only fools are willing, and Bitcoin Ecology, a very early and fair sale or a project that is completely reborn from the ashes, has a better chance. The funds always choose the weakest place to carry out sudden surges, and the hot money will also choose to intervene in some projects with fairly scattered chips and good liquidity on the online line, such as waiting for the participation of hot money. It is also quite rewarding to follow the hot money into this year. Feng, a friend who went to Turkey, gave a sigh when he returned home. The ecology of Ethereum is getting more and more boring, and there is nothing new in the new speculation. Although more and more people are watching the decline of Ethereum, complaining about it has become the emperor's father or a passive project party. As long as the successful god is recognized, he can get a high premium there with this yellow jacket. The ecology of Ethereum is paying more and more attention to bloodline, but in my opinion, the ecology of Ethereum is still shouldering the heavy responsibility of realizing the large-scale application of blockchain, which will not only collapse. It will even disintegrate the grand narrative of the whole blockchain. It has been said for so long that the large-scale application of the next-generation Internet blockchain is fairer. In the end, it is only found that what everyone needs is just a hype. Others are just packaging and gimmicks. Whether you are Ethereum, Bitcoin or blockchain, there is no need for gamblers in this market. The end point of innovation is not Silicon Valley but Shenzhen. I hope that the above situation will not happen and that both Ethereum and everyone will have a bright future. 比特币今日价格行情网_okx交易所app_永续合约_比特币怎么买卖交易_虚拟币交易所平台

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