币安要多久才能赚够40亿美元？
作者：SUN XIAOCHUAN(Emperor of Xinjin) 来源：X（原推特）@sun_xinjin
币安要多久才能赚够40亿？算了下，40亿大概是币安在熊市里1年的收入。
Coinbase Q3的财报提供了一个很好的参考样本：
Q3季交易营收2.886亿刀乐，市场份额大概是5%-7%。
Binance在“现货”上的市场份额大概是Coinbase的7-10倍，那么币安每个季度在“现货”上的收入看起来可能是20-28.8亿。
但Coinbase的赚钱“效率”明显高于币安：CB在Q3季度能赚到千3.8的spread（2.886亿的收入，760亿交易量）。而在币安，最韭菜的普通用户的taker/maker是0.1%，对于机构用户，币安最多能提供1bp的maker rebate和2.4bp的taker。所以币安最多能赚-1bp+10bp=9bp的Spread（即机构提供maker，散户做taker。另一种机构做taker，散户做maker的情况很扯，几乎不存在）。于是可以推出，Coinbase的赚钱效率，保底是币安的4倍。综上，币安每个季度在现货上可能可以赚5-7.7亿。你再把返佣算进去，那么币安每个季度可能可以赚5个亿左右。
再算合约市场，Q3季度合约市场交易量达到了行业“冰点”：总共6.1万亿，币安的市场份额是50%左右，大约3.1万亿。
合约市场虽然量大，但其实并不怎么“赚钱”。比如在币安，最普通的用户的费率是1.8bp的maker和4.5bp的taker，而最吊的做市商的maker费率是0.5bp，于是币安能赚的Spread最多是4bp。
按4bp的spread来算，币安Q3能赚12亿左右，但这个数字需要再打折，比如需要算进去返佣，需要考虑到成交情况（怎么可能每笔成交都赚4bp？）。我们粗略打5折（毕竟返佣都挺多了）的话，那么币安在Q3算是可以赚6亿。
现货和合约加起来，币安每个季度赚11亿左右。40亿的罚款，很像是币安在“熊市”里一年的收入（抛开什么质押，矿池等业务）。这样的话，看起来DOJ算的“挺合理”。
BTW，如果是在牛市，交易所的业务量和盈利，往往是十倍以上的增长。
The author comes from the original Twitter. How long will it take for Coin An to earn enough? Calculate that the next billion is probably the financial report of Coin An's annual income in the bear market, which provides a good reference sample. The market share of the quarterly trading revenue of Billion Dollar Music is probably twice that of the spot market. Then Coin An's income in the spot every quarter may seem to be billion, but its profit-making efficiency is obviously higher than that of Coin An's income of 100 billion in the quarter, and the average user who is the most leek in Coin An is the most for institutional users. There are many things that can be provided and summed up, so what Coin An can earn at most is that the situation that an institution provides retail investors to do another kind of business is ridiculous and almost non-existent, so the profit-making efficiency that can be launched is guaranteed to be twice that of Coin An. In summary, Coin An may earn hundreds of millions in cash every quarter, and if you count the rebate, then Coin An may earn about 100 million every quarter, and then calculate the contract market quarterly. The trading volume of the contract market has reached the freezing point of the industry, and the market share of the total contract market is about one trillion yuan. It's big, but it doesn't actually make much money. For example, the rate of the most common users in Coin An is right, and the rate of the most hanging market maker is that Coin An can earn about 100 million yuan at most, but this figure needs to be discounted. For example, it needs to be included in the rebate. How can we make a rough discount on every transaction? After all, if there are a lot of rebates, then Coin An can earn about 100 million yuan in cash and contracts, which is very similar to a fine that Coin An earns about 100 million yuan every quarter. Ann's annual income in a bear market, regardless of the business such as pledge mine pool, seems quite reasonable. If it is in a bull market, the business volume and profit are often more than ten times higher. 比特币今日价格行情网_okx交易所app_永续合约_比特币怎么买卖交易_虚拟币交易所平台
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