11月23日AMA回放:币安43亿事件的“余震”

币圈资讯 阅读:46 2024-04-22 12:24:27 评论:0
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近日币安与美国司法部等达成了协议,支付43亿美元的罚款,赵长鹏卸任CEO。币安的哪些业务会受到影响?牛市前的最后利空终于出尽了么?11月23日比特币买卖交易网举办了Twitter Space,邀请力说创始人张力、犹太赵主任分享。

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有请两位嘉宾做个简单的自我介绍。

张力:大家好,我是张力,运营一个公众账号叫“力说”,你可以在微信公众号里搜到。

赵主任:大家好,我是赵主任,比较喜欢写小作文。币安这个话题在市场上产生的分歧比较大,有人说利空出尽,所以选择在下探后抄底,但我觉得大家一定程度上低估了衍生的可能性,现在只看到了蝴蝶振翅,未来的蝴蝶效应还没有完全展开,希望通过Space看看能不能聊出什么新东西。

市场对这次币安事件的反应并不激烈啊...

张力:不是突发,突发的话不会是现在这个反应。其实早在半年前,赵长鹏要辞职、继任者人选都在大家意料之内,这事情酝酿太久了所以市场都没有恐慌。有所不同的是,大家以为是交钱和解,就像SEC和Ripple一样,但币安这次情况比较复杂,和Ripple不一样,和之前Bitmex也不一样,虽然媒体用的词语是“认罪”,但美国政府给出的处罚还是比想象中温柔了很多。

当然我也不觉得靴子落地了,后续应该还有细节的法律需要制定,参考新加坡最近提出的法规,禁止个人投资者借款进行交易,美国一定也有更细的条例。

币安创新、投资业务会停掉,和传统机构合作项目也会停掉,之前热衷于和mastercard、visa合作发卡,后边两年应该陆续停掉。

币安的哪些业务会受到比较大的影响呢?

力:美国财政部将在五年内保留对币安账簿、记录和系统的访问权限,也就是说只要美国政府想看,币安政府必须无条件配合,币安账户钱流向全都能被看到,没有交易隐私。币安有很多机构用户,如果机构用户意识到这点,大家应该很快会看到大量资金流出。币安公关做的很好,给所用的用户发了邮件,强调了第一没有挪用客户资金,第二没有操纵市场,但很多细节没有披露,一旦披露了比如和美国政府讨论的条例,那资金流出是必然的。

第二个影响是市场份额减少。这对币安不是坏事情。币安的交易量站到全球加密货币交易50%以上,垄断了这个市场,所以面临的压力尤其是监管压力很大,市场份额减少也一定程度上减轻了压力。早期的Coinbase交易所和币安选择了不一样的路,Coinbase严格遵守美国的反洗钱条例,所以这条路走得很稳,但币安选择了快速发展,所以现在需要这43亿美元的罚款来作为弥补。

赵主任:美国不是铁板一块,SEC、CFTC、币安都不是,所以大家要分拆到比较微观的部分看。

昨天事件一出,币安就有10亿美金资金流出,虽然不是挤兑性的,但是资金流出的趋势会持续。美国对币安所有账目、交易记录在5年有审阅的权限,这让大家比较恐慌。

首先,那些涉及美国对其他国家制裁的资金、被盗资金、黑客资金、洗钱资金、博彩资金,它们之前把币安作为资产托管方,但它们的账经不起查,所以要转移走。

其次,币安拿到了短期的免死金牌,但币安上的项目方并没有被免责,监管机构可以查每个项目方有没有操作市场、做过什么违法行为。

再次,还有交易机构比如做市商,那些经常使二级市场产生动荡的交易者,虽然大家心知肚明,但是没人有权限看交易记录、审查这些事情,现在美国政府有权限看了,大家意识到不能在币安上拉盘砸盘,需要新的流动性平台,只不过目前还没找到,所以大家还没有把钱提走。

对币安投资过的项目会不会有什么影响?

张力:影响不大,这不是币安的主流业务。专注于做交易也没什么不好,投资业务只是锦上添花而已,不是很重要。

赵主任:削减投资从上半年就开始了,而且这条业务线收入占比也低,所以不会有什么大影响。

需要注意的一点是,之前大家觉得Binance Labs投了的项目,代币就会上线币安,但这次事件之后,上币组可能变成了一个非常谨慎的部门,甚至谨慎的程度可能还要高过香港合规交易所,起码在赵长鹏量刑之前,币安的上币和新资产发行没有办法太激进。所以一些项目之前把币安看做兑现流动性的通路,但现在这条路走不通了,一级项目方兑现流动性难度会增加,可能币发不出来了,融资和上币的计划都要有调整。

美国对币安开了监管第一枪,其他国家也会效仿么?

张力:美国不算开了第一枪,在比较成熟的金融国家尤其是反洗钱条例很成熟的国家,例如欧洲各国,币安发展业务也挺碰壁的,比利时曾一度币安让它退出,但是这些影响比较小,所以大家没有看的很严重。其他国家一直按照本国条例来监管币安,只有在法律和金融条例不成熟的国家和地区,币安财能闭眼狂奔。目前对于币安来说,合规不是一个选择,是一个必然,币安在各个国家业务必然会收紧。

赵主任:币安17/18年日本,后来新加坡,后来迪拜,后来巴黎,最近几年都在各地奔波,之前各国的监管都是让币安不要本国开展业务,即使和法国关系好,但是也没有声明说可以立足巴黎做全球业务。全球反洗钱反恐资金规定是以美国作为主导,所以大家都在看美国结果。

所以美国这次的罚款是比较标志性的行为,这其实还带来了币安在各国可以开展活动的可能性。如果币安后期真的能在美国落好Binance US,在美国的框架下做好合规,如果得到美国的首肯,那么在做欧洲业务可能会有一定程度的通行证,虽然可能很贵,但起码有合规基础了。或许币安还会引入传统金融机构的股东,不论是Binance US还是Binance Global,看看这种方式能不能打开合规的大门。

张力:赵主任的回复给了我一个提示,交了罚款的后续是什么,如果Binance Global对标Coinbase能在美国开展业务,这是非常大的利好。但目前为止不知道这是不是可以达成的结果,只看到了罚款,没有看到和美国政府达成的合作。

赵主任:43亿是解决前边事件,如果没有43亿就连谈的机会都没有。Hashkey在香港合规要花2000多万美元,所以币安在43亿以外肯定还有其他合规成本要支付。

接下来也要看币安的战略是要站在美国辐射全球,还是放弃美国转战其他国家地区。之前币安反骨比较强,和传统金融的接触不算特别顺畅,但后续会不会通过引入战略性股东来打开合规大门还不好说,如果能做到就是非常利好的消息,等于拿了一张全球通行证。

比特币现货ETF可能通过,与这次币安事件有没有关系?

张力:没有必然联系。美国金融系统相当成熟,发展了一两百年,大的框架不会犯错,不拒绝金融创新,还把我们所谓的金融创新往正道上扶了扶。ETF是在他们法律框架下合规合理的事情,和币安这个事情是两码事。很多人觉得比特币现货ETF有90%的几率会通过,届时将会有大量机构合规的钱流入市场,这对我们行业来说是好事,但同时这个行业也丧失了很多创新性,毕竟混乱才是创新的沃土。

赵主任:美国的金融监管是非常繁复,合规成本很高。做一个指数基金产品的周期是三个月左右,但所有合规要走半年到八个月,所有时间成本都在合规上。我年轻的时候有很多小想法,我当时的领导说anything that you do is innovative in finance is freaking illegal。所以不要过分探究币安时间线和ETF时间线,这会产生很多阴谋论。

其实比特币现货ETF和币安之间的联系,在后边才会越来越明显,那就是Crypto未来全球流动性终点在哪里?刚才力总说Crypto50%以上的交易量在币安,那大家可能不知道的是,可以说市场上所有的交易所,它自己的流动性本身不足够吃掉它自己的平台上面的大单子,所以其实都在币安有对应的deposit来对冲,币安就是现在Crypto资金流动性的终点。但ETF带来大量的增量资金,这些资金的交易场所可能是在纳斯达克、纽交所,就会把一定的定价权从币安挪到传统的金融市场里面去,这个是符合美国监管的主要利益的。币安如果能获得美国首肯,未来有可能参与数字资产定价权,如果没有获得,未来ETF大量资金进入纳斯达克,定价权就会产生一定程度转移。之前其他交易所在币安对冲,以后要挪到纳斯达克。

大家都说币安事件解决,是牛市前最后一个利空出尽,明年的牛市真的是个必然了么?

张力:牛市来了简直就是政治正确的事情,我也不知道该说什么。

赵主任:预测性的东西,唱多是永远政治正确。但未来周期肯定会受到影响,可以类比下其他金融资产,比如以前猪肉价格大概也是4-5年一个周期,但猪周期最近也在打破,因为比较大的畜牧企业资本集中度提高,打破了分散性市场格局,币圈也是一样的,ETF通过后资本和资金结构就不一样了,一定程度改变资产属性。

2013年的Crypto有很大的避险属性,但2020年引入了微策略、特斯拉等科技资金,就好比以前圈子只有100块钱,其中70块钱是用来避险,而现在圈子的资金总额涨到10000,80%都是炒作科技创业的钱,只剩下2000是避险,虽然避险资金增长了很多,但比例变小了。

比特币现货ETF会吸引很多有公募基金,而这些公募基金是纯多头,所以会长时间保持多头配置,币圈牛市的转换可能就不是4年一周期了,可能会带来慢牛和长牛。

最近的乐观情绪有点重,资金的入场效应却不是特别强,涨幅都在边边角角比如BRC,比如铭文,而以以太坊为代表的技术创新、大规模采用等方面没有太多的进展,所以情绪虽然宝贵,但是风险大家要注意,最近回调可能性越来越大。

接下来会引起回调的风险点主要在哪里呢?

张力:一方面关注美国政府后续出的详细管理条例,一定会出,但不知道什么时候。条例不仅是对币安,也是对其他交易所,甚至去中心化交易所都会有影响,因为它管理的是整个市场。而且全球市场都在盯着美国看,只要美国发布了更详细的针对全行业的条例,这短期以内的风险是不言而喻的。

还由就是关注币安本身的业务转变,如果(我是说如果)和SEC官司输了,币安会有什么惩罚,这都是没有解决的事情。

赵主任:第一,我比较担忧的是市场流动性。虽然很多散户觉得所有利空出尽了,现在进入币安、买入、为市场提供流动性,但其实在散户对立面的项目方、做市商、小交易所都在计划把钱抽走,流动性在未来可能会受到一定程度的挤压。还有一些项目,本身应该做市然后配合一些基本面的利好,让币价有一些上涨,但现在这些项目方的老板会觉得,在币安这个事没说清楚之前还是缓一缓,不要那么激进,所以整个会领整个市场又回到了可能今年年初的那个那个流动性萎缩的时候。

第二担忧的是如果币安在未来不能承担行业新的创新点,谁会来承担呢?币安过去的几年一直是冲在行业第一线,一直在做创新,然后其他交易所效仿,但今年大家会发现动作可能并没有之前那么快了。OKX钱包这一波做的挺快的,已经开始在逆转一些趋势了。

第三担忧的是谁来承接币安流失掉的资产和流动性?是大家都把币提到去中心化交易所,还是会有一个新的中心化交易所?这是需要大家终点关注的,因为咱们这个行业,资金沉淀在哪,流动性在哪,前就在哪儿。

张力:我补充一点,主流币不用担心,但币安是全球最大的山寨币流动市场、流动性最好的交易所,很多山寨币只在币安有流动性,在其他所没有,所以大家需要警惕一下这个事情。

Coinbase首席法务官:美国执法监管的方式只会增加消费者风险,并将客户和创新赶出美国。对此您的观点是...?

张力:在Coinbase的角度来看,它合规成本、获得客户的成本这么高,当然觉得美国政府的这个法律是不OK的,会把创新赶走。我们大家心知肚明这个行业的第一红利就是不合规的红利,Coinbase在这上面是吃了亏的,放弃了很多非合规的利润。

但现在来看合规它是一条必然的选择,美国的高净值用户在Coinbase和币安占的比例非常高,金融创新不用担心。而且东边不亮西边总会亮,除了美国政府我们还有环地中海呢,还有香港。

赵主任:整个的行业其实有两个周期,大家多数看的是所谓四年的资金周期、信贷周期,其实另外一个是产业周期,产业周期是正向螺旋上升。很多今年刚入行的人说Web3没什么用,但其实现在的Web3和17/18年已经完全不一样了,当年谁能想到可以在链上玩游戏呢,所以这个科技创新在过去的一段时间做的非常不错了。

而在资本周期,或者说信贷周期的扩张和收缩的影响下,大家会在牛市的时候把甚至未来十年的预期都已经投射上面,在熊市的时候又完全觉得它是个骗局,信贷周期调控了你的情绪,让你觉得市场是没有发展的。

如果你是一个builder,进入这个行业、持续以搭积木的形式继续往下build其实是没有什么问题的,当然中间会有很苦的日子,但你真的能做出很多可能意想不到的事情。

你如果是纯炒币的,未来的前途需要重新考虑,因为一来单打独斗的模式可能已经不太能成型了,二来市场对资金体量的要求也提高了,现在玩游戏的能上桌的人甚至要代表一定程度的利益相关方,比如香港的合规,比如最近的blast,很明显就是paradigm做了个局,因为它有Lido所以才能做这个局,门槛越来越高了。

币安这个事情给项目方和创业者带来了另个启示,真的开了一个招安性的大门,真的可以鲤鱼跃龙门。大家可以找个还不错的机构去上班,未来可能上班的回报会比炒币的回报要高。


Recently, Coin 'an reached an agreement with the US Department of Justice to pay a fine of US$ 100 million. What business of Coin 'an will be affected when Zhao Changpeng leaves office? The last bad news before the bull market has finally been exhausted. On May, Bitcoin Trading Network held an invitation to say that founder Zhang Li Jewish Director Zhao shared it. Please invite two guests to make a simple introduction. Zhang Li runs a public account. Zhang Li said that you can find Director Zhao in WeChat WeChat official account. Hello, I am Director Zhao. I prefer to write small composition coins. There are quite a few differences on the topic of security in the market. Some people say that the bad news is exhausted, so they choose to hunt for the bottom after exploring, but I think everyone has underestimated the possibility of derivative to some extent. Now they only see the butterfly effect in the future, and they hope to talk about something new. The market's reaction to this currency security incident is not fierce. If the tension is not sudden, it will not be now. In fact, Zhao Changpeng resigned as early as six months ago, and there are many candidates for successors. As expected, this matter has been brewing for too long, so there is no panic in the market. The difference is that everyone thinks that the settlement is just like peace, but the situation of money security is more complicated and different this time, and it is different from before. Although the words used by the media are guilty, the punishment given by the US government is still much gentler than expected. Of course, I don't think the boots have landed, and there should be detailed laws to be formulated in the follow-up. It is necessary to refer to Singapore's recently proposed regulations prohibiting individual investors from borrowing money for transactions. There must also be more detailed regulations. The innovative investment business of Coin Security will be stopped, and the cooperation projects with traditional institutions will also be stopped. What businesses of Coin Security should be stopped one after another in the next two years? Tension The US Treasury will retain access to the account records and systems of Coin Security within five years, that is to say, as long as the US government wants to see the currency security account, the money flow can be seen. There are many institutional users without transaction privacy. Institutional users are aware of this, and everyone should soon see a large amount of funds flowing out. The public relations of Coin Security has done a good job in sending emails to the users, emphasizing that firstly, there is no misappropriation of customers' funds; secondly, there is no manipulation of the market, but many details have not been disclosed. Once the regulations discussed with the US government are disclosed, the outflow of funds is inevitable. Secondly, the decrease of market share is not a bad thing for Coin Security, and the transaction volume of Coin Security has monopolized this market above the global cryptocurrency transactions, so it is under pressure. In particular, the pressure of supervision is great, and the reduction of market share has also alleviated the pressure to a certain extent. In the early days, the exchange and the currency security chose a different path, strictly abiding by the anti-money laundering regulations of the United States, so this path was very stable, but the currency security chose to develop rapidly, so now it needs a fine of US$ 100 million to make up for Director Zhao. The United States is not monolithic, and the currency security is not even micro-part. Look at yesterday's incident, as soon as the currency security was issued, there was a capital outflow of US$ 100 million, although it was not The trend of capital outflow will continue. The United States has the right to review all the accounts and transaction records of Coin 'an in 2008, which makes everyone panic. First, those funds involved in US sanctions against other countries were stolen, hacked, laundered and gambled. They used Coin 'an as the custodian of assets before, but their accounts could not be checked, so they had to be transferred. Secondly, Coin 'an won a short-term gold medal to avoid death, but the project parties on Coin 'an were not exempted. The regulatory agency can check whether each project party has operated the market. Once again, there are trading institutions, such as market makers, who often cause turmoil in the secondary market. Although everyone knows this, no one has the right to look at the transaction records and review these things. Now the US government has the right to look at them. Everyone realizes that we can't pull the money on the currency security and need a new liquidity platform, but we haven't found it yet, so we haven't taken the money away. Will it have any impact on the projects invested by the currency security? This is not the mainstream business of the currency security. There's nothing wrong with investing in trading. It's just icing on the cake. It's not very important. Director Zhao cut investment from the first half of the year, and the income of this business line is also low, so it won't have any big impact. It should be noted that before, everyone thought that the invested project tokens would be online, but after this incident, the currency group may become a very cautious department, and even the degree of caution may be higher than that of the Hong Kong Compliance Exchange, at least before Zhao Changpeng's sentencing. There is no way to issue currency and new assets too aggressively, so some projects used to regard currency security as a way to cash liquidity, but now this road is not feasible. It will be more difficult for the first-level project parties to cash liquidity, and it may be impossible to issue currency. Both financing and coin-loading plans have to be adjusted. The United States has taken the first shot to supervise currency security, and other countries will follow suit. The United States has not taken the first shot, especially in countries with mature anti-money laundering regulations, such as European countries. The development of currency security business is also quite good. Belgium, which hit a wall, once let it quit, but the impact was relatively small, so people didn't pay attention to it seriously. Other countries have been supervising the currency security according to their own regulations. Only in countries and regions where the laws and financial regulations are immature can the currency An Cai close its eyes and run wildly. At present, it is not an option for the currency security to comply with the regulations. The business of the currency security in various countries will inevitably tighten the supervision of director Zhao, Miko Wu, Japan, Singapore, Dubai and Paris in recent years. Even though it has a good relationship with France, it has not stated that it can do global business based on Paris. The global anti-money laundering and anti-terrorism fund regulations are dominated by the United States, so everyone is watching the US results. Therefore, this fine in the United States is a relatively symbolic act, which actually brings the possibility that the currency security can carry out activities in various countries. If the United States really falls behind the framework of the United States in the later period of currency security, then it is doing Europe. The business may have a certain degree of pass, although it may be expensive, but at least it has a compliance basis. Perhaps Coin Security will also introduce shareholders of traditional financial institutions, whether or not this way can open the door to compliance. Director Zhao's reply gave me a hint of what will happen after paying the fine. If the benchmark can conduct business in the United States, it is very good, but so far I don't know if this can be achieved. I only saw the fine, but I didn't see the cooperation with the US government. Director Zhao Billion is to solve the previous incident. If there is no billion, there is no chance to talk about compliance in Hong Kong. It 比特币今日价格行情网_okx交易所app_永续合约_比特币怎么买卖交易_虚拟币交易所平台

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