Web3已进入“殖民时代”

币圈资讯 阅读:40 2024-04-22 12:23:27 评论:0
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作者:孟岩

AI和Web3领域最近发生了两件“大”事。这两件事都具有重大意义,但其意义却被媒体的大量八卦细节所掩盖。

不同视角

事实上,看待任何重大事件都有两种不同的视角。

第一个是娱乐视角,从新闻事件中寻找乐趣。如果是为了这个目的,那么你应该带上显微镜,尽可能多地了解细节,因为细节越多,密度就越高,八卦点就越多,就越有趣。

另一种角度是宏观的,主要是根据事件判断行业乃至世界的趋势,思考这些趋势与你有什么关系,主要是指导决策。如果这是目的,请带上好的望远镜,不要选错镜头。只有省略各种琐碎的细节,才能出现大范围的模式,才能识别趋势,帮助你做出选择和决策。

两种观点没有区别,娱乐也很重要,尤其是在熊市周期。当你无法抗拒的时候,主动去享受并没有什么错。但如果你的目的是做决定,那么事情越大,就越应该粗略,而不是精细。不要总想着解密、寻找小说。这些八卦细节与你无关。你需要思考高中历史教科书将如何写100年后今天的事件,并思考这些事件与哪些历史段落押韵,这样你就能发现趋势。

可惜现实世界中很多人并不明白这个道理,盲目相信“见微知著”,认为知道的细节越多越好。事实上,他们高估了大脑处理信息的能力,他们完全错了。

我不是人工智能方面的专家,但以OpenAI的内乱为例。事实上,奥特曼的来来往往和背后的宫斗阴谋令人兴奋,但这些细节只是观众的娱乐八卦,没有其他价值。

真正重要的是,在强人工智能到来的时刻,“复临派”和“救世派”之间的斗争,正如内乱所反映的那样。类似的斗争在核武器出现前后也发生过,最近因电影《奥本海默》的上映而闻名。但如果你痴迷于细节,就很难看出这两件事实际上是相辅相成的,也很难认识到此类事件的发生表明强人工智能的奇点已经到来,它的奇点已经到来,能力大大超出创作者自己的预期,引发恐惧、争议和冲突。

冲突的结果与以往类似,“降临派”完全获胜。这也预示着强人工智能的发展已经摆脱了内生性的最后桎梏,正在狂奔向前。未来,人类只能通过与另一个强人工智能形成均势,或者通过密码学、区块链等外部约束来限制和控制强人工智能。

我多次表达过这样的观点:人工智能和加密货币是同一枚硬币的两个侧面。许多人不同意这一点,认为人工智能是一件大事,而加密货币是一场闹剧。他们认为我的声明只是有助于提高加密货币的普及度。

事实上,他们还没有看到密码学是在数字空间中建立秩序的唯一工具。然而,现有的数字世界是相对简单和平淡的。主要是处理人与人之间的关系,可以使用一些基本的密码学工具来完成。

人工智能出现后,数字世界中出现了超级智能主体。与此同时,大量经济资源和经济活动实现数字化。人工智能与人、人工智能与人工智能之间的关系变得更加复杂和决定性。数字空间秩序的建立已成为生死攸关的问题。简单的加密工具和协议已经不够了。

区块链、智能合约、自主身份、可验证凭证、通证经济的出现,无论是巧合还是命运,归根结底都只是一些新的密码协议组件,它们实际上丰富了我们的工具箱,帮助我们构建数字世界的秩序。

我之前曾经说过,“区块链必须为人工智能立法”。现在看来,只提区块链太狭隘了。我们应该把上面提到的所有工具都包括进来,并将它们作为一个整体来对待。

群雄逐鹿时代

币安与美国达成的司法和解其实非常具有象征意义。该指标的意义在于,当您看到这种情况发生时,您可以判断趋势正在朝哪个方向发展。 

比如前面提到的,当你看到OpenAI的内乱时,你就知道强人工智能的奇点即将到来。同样,当我们看到币安达成的和解时,我们可以得出结论,整个Web3已经离开了野蛮生长的探索时代,进入了群雄逐鹿的殖民时代。

简单解释如下。

早在区块链发展初期,很多人就把加密经济描述为一个“平行世界”,或者是一个富裕的新大陆。如果这个比喻恰当的话,那么我们自然要问,面对突然出现的蕴藏着巨大财富和风险的新空间,人们会作何反应?这种情况在历史上至少发生过两次。

一个是智人离开非洲的时候,另一个是1500年后欧洲在美洲和澳大利亚殖民新大陆的时候。前一个时间的具体过程无法考证,但后一个时间的信息很详细,可以作为 一个参考。五百年过去了,人性却没有改变。当我们试图把握Web3行业发展的大势时,一个可以作为参考的历史模板是1500年后美洲大陆逐渐殖民化的过程。

新大陆发现后两个世纪的每周殖民历史可以大致分为两个阶段。

第一阶段是16世纪。第一批移民主要是来自西班牙和葡萄牙的冒险家和淘金者。他们很快占领了盛产金银的南美洲,获得了大量的金银,衣冠华丽地回国,回到了欧洲。为此,他们对新世界的制度建设不感兴趣。相反,他们尽最大努力进行掠夺和剥削,将金银运回欧洲,换取茶叶、丝绸、瓷器、香料和无敌舰队。

到了17世纪,荷兰、英国、法国等后发国家看到了新世界的财富潜力,也对其进行了殖民统治。由于他们抵达较晚,无法夺取西班牙和葡萄牙获取金银,所以不得不发展农业和农产品贸易。农业的发展比简单的掠夺更为复杂。要求建立合作秩序,建设基础设施,组织分工协作生产,通过教育提高劳动者素质。

因此,这一阶段的主要殖民模式是通过公司向新大陆输出人口、秩序、技术和文化的综合体,从而开启区域殖民的新阶段。北美大部分地区在这个阶段开始了殖民历史。正是在此基础上,十八世纪末,英国在北美大陆的殖民地将原有的殖民制度与当地特色相结合,在新思想的指导下,创建了美国这样的国家。

这样的描述并不粗暴。如果你仔细研究的话,一定会找到很多证据和细节来反驳这种普遍的“历史逻辑”。然而,只有通过这条粗线的过滤,我们才能摆脱细节的干扰,辨认出“历史的韵律”。

区块链出现以来的十多年,是美国十六世纪殖民历史的一曲“韵律”,堪称“探索时代”。

区块链的新时代

这个时代进入Web3新世界的理想主义者有一小部分,但绝大多数是探索者和淘金者。他们不关心Web3本身的概念、价值观和社会目标。进入这个新领域的目的是100%赚钱,赚大钱,赚快钱。

为此,区块链和Web3的技术、工具和创新只是随时可以替代的手段。目的是也只能是满载金银满载而归。至于是否会破坏Web3的秩序,破坏新世界的生态,他们并不关心。

这是一个野蛮生长的阶段,也是一个充满创新、冒险、投机、炒作、欺诈和混乱的阶段。这一时期,币安在现实理想主义者的带领下,抓住了历史机遇,平衡了多种复杂因素,从混乱中脱颖而出,成为了这个阶段的王者。币安的成功固然归功于运气,但更重要的是因为币安始终能够有节制地运用自己的权力和影响力,有意识地为混乱无序的市场提供最稀缺的公共良秩序。

然而,这片新大陆还没有产生足以与传统世界抗衡的组织和权力形式。其原有的一套基于单薄匿名机制的被动对抗手段,如今已经形同虚设。在这种情况下,当它的规模越来越大,甚至开始对旧大陆的力量平衡产生不利影响时,旧大陆绝对不会坐视不管,必然会动用现有的实力并意味着干预新大陆。这将把新世界的历史推入第二阶段,可以称为殖民时代,对应于十七世纪北美大陆的殖民历史。

殖民时代,Web3将进入一个秩序建设的时代,而秩序建设的积极推动者实际上是传统世界的当权者。他们鄙视掠夺中可能获得的收益,而更看重Web3固有的技术优势,希望通过在Web3中建立更加复杂的生产和交易结构来创造巨额财富,从而影响现实世界的权力分配机制。因此,他们会比之前的一群人更加注重制度建设,会更倾向于利用新的企业形式来推动殖民进程,构建新秩序。

看到这一点的国家正在以不同的方式推进殖民进程。有的国家比较主动,愿意深入腹地,有的国家则比较被动,只想保卫边境。这基本上就是我们在币安司法解决方案中看到的情况。这一事件标志着美国在Web3新世界的殖民进程大幅加速。香港、新加坡等地区也在加速,但各自的策略、节奏和目标并不相同。

殖民时代建立的秩序并不是最符合新世界本土特色的秩序。相反,它是由旧世界的多个宗主国在争夺新世界的土地后,将其殖民地的新技术特征结合起来并嫁接到宗主国原有的体系上而形成的。

多种不同特点的殖民体系并存、相互竞争的秩序。殖民时代绝对不是结束。多个体系之间的竞争过程最终会导致新秩序的出现。这种新秩序不仅更符合新技术本身的特点,而且具有突出的竞争优势和与其他体系竞争的能力,能够对旧大陆产生强烈的负面影响。然而,新秩序的创建、建立和成功可能还需要很长时间。在相当长的一段时间内,我们将不得不只关注殖民时代的战略。

未来十年

未来十年,Web3/加密世界的殖民将是行业故事的主线。行业叙事将发生根本性变化,最重要的创新和财富创造机会将集中在这条主线上。很快我们就会看到以下现象:

1.一些国家的央行、监管机构和跨国组织相继发布了关于央行数字货币、可编程支付、去中心化身份、区块链等技术话题的重量级报告。

2.大国监管全面加强对Web3世界的控制,根据人口和产业轨迹建立自己的殖民地。冒险时代的秩序仍会在夹缝中成长,但各国监管机构对越界行为将越来越不容忍。

3.一些国家的政府机构将主动扶持和支持一批企业,鼓励其进入Web3,并不断开发和部署新的应用案例。

4.某些后进国家和地区,因为没有历史负担,会表现得更激进、更创新,相反,某些在前一阶段数字经济中领先的国家和地区则会由于保守和犹疑,迟迟不敢做动作。

5.因为 Web3 世界的天然优势是跨境业务,因此跨国机构会积极行动,一些国家则会主动建立协作关系,以联盟方式进军 Web3。

6.不同国家所支持的企业,遵循各自的规则和体制,基于各自的资源和实力,在 Web3 的不同领域展开竞争,在国家力量亲自下场之前和之后,成为宗主国殖民行动的先锋和协同部队。

7.创新仍然是这一阶段的胜负手,但是大多数创新将不再是天马行空,而是在秩序建构之中进行。

只有站在这样的位置上去看币安事件和币安自身,才能更好地理解。币安和解,看上去是无奈之举,但长远来说,其实也是非常正面的。

作为探险时代的王者,币安将顺利存活并且进入到殖民时代,而且在实力上并未伤及根本,将有充足的机会与各个主要殖民国家进行谈判或合作,在新的时代继续发挥重要作用。

这样的好事,翻翻历史书,实在不多见。而那些简单地认为币安和解排除了牛市前最后一颗大雷,于是乎自己即将暴富的人,恐怕还会在一次又一次地不断体验大喜大悲的人生。

  1. 离职蚂蚁,他们涌向 Web3


Author Meng Yan and two major events have happened recently in the field, both of which are of great significance, but their significance is concealed by a lot of gossip details in the media. In fact, there are two different perspectives for looking at any major event from different perspectives. The first is the entertainment perspective, and if it is for this purpose, you should bring a microscope to learn as much about the details as possible, because the more details, the higher the density, the more interesting gossip points, and the other perspective is macro, mainly based on the matter. Judging the trend of the industry and even the world, thinking about what these trends have to do with you is mainly to guide decision-making. If this is the purpose, please bring a good telescope and don't choose the wrong lens. Only by omitting all kinds of trivial details can a wide range of patterns appear to identify the trend and help you make choices and decisions. There is no difference between the two views. Entertainment is also very important, especially in the bear market cycle, when you can't resist, there is nothing wrong with taking the initiative to enjoy it, but if your purpose is to make decisions, the bigger things should be. Don't always think about deciphering and looking for novels. These gossip details have nothing to do with you. You need to think about how high school history textbooks will write today's events in the future and what historical paragraphs these events rhyme with, so that you can find the trend. Unfortunately, many people in the real world don't understand this truth. They blindly believe that the more details they know, the better. In fact, they overestimate the brain's ability to process information. I am not an expert in artificial intelligence, but they are completely wrong. Take the civil strife as an example. In fact, Altman's comings and goings and the intrigue behind it are exciting, but these details are just the entertainment gossip of the audience and have no other value. What really matters is the struggle between Adventists and Salvationists at the moment of the arrival of strong artificial intelligence, as reflected in the civil strife. Similar struggles have occurred before and after the emergence of nuclear weapons. Recently, it is famous for the release of the film Oppenheimer, but if you are obsessed with details, it is difficult to see that these two things are actually complementary and difficult to know. The occurrence of such events shows that the singularity of strong artificial intelligence has arrived, and its singularity has arrived, and its ability has greatly exceeded the creator's own expectations, causing fear, controversy and conflict. The result is similar to that of the past, and the Advent faction has won completely. This also indicates that the development of strong artificial intelligence has got rid of the last shackles of endogenous factors and is rushing forward. In the future, human beings can only limit and control strong artificial intelligence by forming a balance of power with another strong artificial intelligence or by external constraints such as cryptographic blockchain. I have expressed the view that artificial intelligence and cryptocurrency are two sides of the same coin. Many people disagree that artificial intelligence is a big deal and cryptocurrency is a farce. They think that my statement is only helpful to improve the popularity of cryptocurrency. In fact, they have not seen that cryptography is the only tool to establish order in the digital space. However, the existing digital world is relatively simple and dull, mainly to deal with the relationship between people, and some basics can be used. After the emergence of artificial intelligence with cryptographic tools, super-intelligent subjects have appeared in the digital world. At the same time, a large number of economic resources and economic activities have realized digitalization. The relationship between artificial intelligence and human artificial intelligence has become more complicated and decisive. The establishment of digital space order has become a matter of life and death. Simple encryption tools and protocols are no longer enough. Blockchain intelligent contracts, autonomous identities, verifiable certificates, and universal certificates. Whether it is coincidence or fate, the emergence of the economy is only. It's some new cryptographic protocol components, which actually enrich our toolbox and help us build the order of the digital world. I said before that blockchain must be legislated for artificial intelligence. Now it seems that it's too narrow to mention only blockchain. We should include all the tools mentioned above and treat them as a whole. The judicial settlement reached between Bi 'an and the United States is actually very symbolic. The significance of this indicator is that when you see this happening, you can In order to judge which direction the trend is developing, for example, when you see the civil strife mentioned above, you will know that the singularity of strong artificial intelligence is coming. Similarly, when we see the reconciliation of Bi Andacheng, we can draw the conclusion that the whole has left the era of barbaric growth and entered the era of colonial competition. The simple explanation is as follows: As early as the early stage of blockchain development, many people described the encrypted economy as a parallel world or a rich new continent. If this metaphor is appropriate, then Naturally, we have to ask how people will react to the sudden emergence of a new space with great wealth and risks. This situation has happened at least twice in history. One is when Homo sapiens left Africa, and the other is when Europe colonized the New World in America and Australia years later. The specific process of the previous time cannot be verified, but the information of the latter time is very detailed and can be used as a reference. After 500 years, human nature has not changed. When we try to grasp the general trend of industry development, we can. The historical template for reference is the process of gradual colonization of the American continent years later. The weekly colonial history of the two centuries after the discovery of the new continent can be roughly divided into two stages. The first stage is the century. The first batch of immigrants, mainly adventurers and gold diggers from Spain and Portugal, quickly occupied South America, which is rich in gold and silver, and returned to Europe in splendid clothes. Therefore, they were not interested in the system construction of the new world. On the contrary, they tried their best to plunder and strip it. Cutting gold and silver back to Europe in exchange for tea, silk, porcelain, spices and armada, in the century, the late-developing countries such as the Netherlands, Britain and France saw the wealth potential of the new world and colonized it. Because they arrived late and could not seize Spain and Portugal to obtain gold and silver, they had to develop agriculture and agricultural products trade. The development of agriculture is more complicated than simple plunder, which requires the establishment of cooperative order, the construction of infrastructure, the organization of division of labor and cooperative production, and the improvement of the quality of workers through education. The main colonial model is to export the population order, technology and culture to the New World through the company, thus opening a new stage of regional colonization. At this stage, most parts of North America began colonial history. It is on this basis that at the end of the eighteenth century, the British colonies in North America combined the original colonial system with local characteristics and created a country like the United States under the guidance of new ideas. This description is not rude. If you study it carefully, you will certainly find a lot of evidence and details to refute this universal historical logic. However, only by filtering this thick line can we get rid of the interference of details and identify it. 比特币今日价格行情网_okx交易所app_永续合约_比特币怎么买卖交易_虚拟币交易所平台

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