随着币安和解加密货币权力斗争进入新阶段

币圈资讯 阅读:39 2024-04-22 12:22:05 评论:0
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作者:Gillian Tett;编译:Block unicorn

几乎是科技专业人士本周唯一可以谈论的话题是OpenAI的不寻常的戏剧。但在西雅图的一个联邦法院里,更北一点的地方,另一场引人注目的故事正在上演,这对最近炙手可热的另一组创新产生了影响。

周二,美国司法部公布了针对币安的大规模洗钱和欺诈指控,这家全球最大的加密交易平台的领导人赵长鹏(“CZ”)因此辞职并支付了5,000万美元的罚款。币安还达成了一项43亿美元的和解,被梅里克·加兰德(Merrick Garland)总检察长欣然宣布为“美国历史上最大的企业罚款之一”。

一些观察人士可能认为——或者确实希望——这标志着加密货币的终结。一年前,赵长鹏把自己打扮成这个行业的清白救世主,因为他的盟友兼变成激烈对手的FTX平台联合创始人山姆·班克曼-弗里德(“SBF”)被指控欺诈。现在,这两位曾经是世界两大加密交易所负责人的男人被认定为罪犯。这就像西部片中,两伙敌对帮派对峙后,警长骑马赶到的那一刻。

但有一件奇怪的事情:周三,币安的BNB代币适度反弹,位于2021年高峰的60%以下,但比上个月上涨了10%。与此同时,比特币今年涨幅翻倍,使整个加密领域的估值约为两年前的一半——但比2022年底增长了50%。加密货币可能已经缩水,但并未消亡。

是什么解释了这种韧性呢?一个解释可能是,那些利用加密进行不正当交易的人(而这样的人有很多)认为,即使在司法部的监督下,他们仍然可以继续。

然而,另一种观点是,一些大投资者认为这不是终结的开始,而是一个更好续集的结束,他们期待更好的续集。在周二的交易之前,对冲基金领袖迈克·诺沃格拉茨曾在X上表示:“ 币安与美国监管机构和解将是超级利好!!他欢呼着这是一个“行业迈进的机会 ”。

这可能看起来荒谬,尤其是考虑到去年诺沃格拉茨在加密代币Luna和Terra崩溃时损失惊人的金额。但也不完全是。第三种解释这些情节的方式是,实际上发生了一场权力之争,就像历史学家奈尔·弗格森所说的,这是中央当局和联网群体之间的较量,就好像是“塔”(中央当局)和“广场”(互联网群体)之间的对决一样。

加密最初起源于“广场”——充满了自由主义、反建制的理念。然而,这些理念后来变得扭曲,因为——具有讽刺意味的是——FTX和币安等平台创造的权力集中程度甚至超过了主流公司。这是因为它们融合了经纪人、交易所和保管人(以及在FTX的情况下,专有交易员)的角色。

虽然加密被广泛认为是匿名的,更准确地说是化名的,但像Chainalysis这样的顾问如今在数字侦查工作上非常熟练,监管机构告诉我,跟踪加密犯罪转账,通常比追踪现金的交易更容易。

本周的法庭文件证明了这一点:例如,它们详细描述了与伊朗的交易,如果这些支付通过哈瓦拉渠道进行(在伊斯兰世界广泛使用的古老的人对人、网络系统),这样的细节将是不可想象的。

然而,关键问题在于:迄今为止,大多数加密爱好者要么希望推翻“塔”(中央当局),要么对其崩溃进行对冲。人群力量是理想的选择。但现在“塔”在进行反击。由于国会(可耻地)未能通过有效的行业法规,司法部和证券交易委员会实际上正在通过法律制裁制定政策。而币安虽然仍然存在,但其新领导人是前政府监管高管转型为加密高管的Richard Teng,他显然愿意接受深入的监管。

另外,各国央行正试图用自己的数字货币取代加密货币。与此同时,BlackRock和Grayscale已经提出启动比特币ETF的申请,而摩根大通怀疑大规模批准即将来临。实际上,本周加密货币的强劲表现可能的一个(合理的)原因是,交易者认为和解将使监管机构在一场准清理之后更加自由地批准这些产品。

这将让自由主义者尖叫,传统人士可能(相当合理地)会问,鉴于这项技术在规模上仍然太过笨重以进行快速支付,而价格太过波动以成为良好的价值储存,为什么主流金融甚至想与数字资产共舞。

然而,答案在于,在加密梦想的核心仍然存在一个有趣的想法,即利用代币化和数字账本进行价值转移。而这并不一定非要是自由主义的;毕竟,中国国家正在以深度威权的方式创建自己的数字货币。

因此,我预测未来将看到加密思想逐渐被金融机构吸收,而一小部分产品,比如比特币,将部分留在“广场”,主要被投资者用作对冲工具,类似于数字黄金。如果是这样,将会生动展示权力在历史上往往在“塔(中央政府)”和“广场(互联网群众/人民)”之间摇摆。硅谷的兄弟们应该注意到这一点。


The author's compilation is almost the only topic that science and technology professionals can talk about this week. It is unusual drama, but in a federal court in Seattle, another eye-catching story is being staged, which has had an impact on another group of innovations that have been hot recently. On Tuesday, the US Department of Justice announced the allegations of large-scale money laundering and fraud against Coin Security, the leader of the world's largest encrypted trading platform, Zhao Changpeng resigned and paid a fine of 10,000 US dollars. Coin Security also reached an agreement. The settlement of $100 million was gladly announced by the Attorney General of Garland, merrick as one of the biggest corporate fines in American history. Some observers may think or really hope that this marks the end of cryptocurrency. A year ago, Zhao Changpeng dressed himself as an innocent savior of this industry because his ally and co-founder of the platform who became a fierce rival, Sam Bankmann Fried, was accused of fraud. Now these two men who used to be the heads of the world's two largest cryptocurrency exchanges are considered criminals. Like the moment when the sheriff arrived on horseback after the confrontation between two rival gangs in the western film, there is a strange thing. On Wednesday, the token of Bitcoin rebounded moderately below the peak of the year, but it rose last month. At the same time, Bitcoin doubled this year, making the valuation of the whole encryption field about half that of two years ago, but it increased compared with the end of the year. What explains this resilience may be those who use encryption to conduct unfair transactions? There are many people who think that they can continue even under the supervision of the Ministry of Justice. Another view is that some big investors think that this is not the beginning of the end, but the end of a better sequel. They expect a better sequel. Before Tuesday's transaction, Mike novogratz, the leader of hedge fund, said in the newspaper that it would be super good for Coin Security to reconcile with the US regulators. He cheered that this is an opportunity for the industry to move forward, which may seem absurd, especially considering that novogratz was encrypting tokens last year. And it is not the third way to explain these plots, but it is actually a power struggle. As historian Neil Ferguson said, this is a contest between the central authorities and the networked groups, just like a confrontation between the central authorities of the tower and the internet groups in the square. Encryption originally originated in the square and was full of liberal anti-establishment ideas. However, these ideas later became distorted because of the irony of the power created by platforms such as coin security. The degree of concentration is even higher than that of mainstream companies, because they combine the roles of brokers, exchanges, custodians and, in some cases, proprietary traders. Although encryption is widely regarded as anonymous, to be more precise, it is a pseudonym, but consultants like this are now very skilled in digital investigation. The regulatory authorities told me that it is usually easier to track encrypted criminal transfers than to track cash transactions. This week's court documents proved this point, for example, they described in detail the transactions with Iran if these branches. It would be inconceivable to pay for the details of the ancient person-to-person network system widely used in the Islamic world through the Hawala channel. However, the key problem is that so far most encryption enthusiasts either hope to overthrow the central authorities of the tower or hedge its collapse. Crowd power is an ideal choice, but now the tower is fighting back because Congress has shamefully failed to pass effective industry regulations, and the Ministry of Justice and the Securities and Exchange Commission are actually formulating policies through legal sanctions. However, it still exists, but its new leader is a former government regulatory executive who has been transformed into an encryption executive. He is obviously willing to accept in-depth supervision. In addition, central banks are trying to replace cryptocurrencies with their own digital currency. At the same time, they have already applied to start Bitcoin, and JPMorgan Chase suspects that large-scale approval is coming. In fact, a reasonable reason for the strong performance of cryptocurrencies this week is that traders believe that reconciliation will enable regulators to approve these products more freely after a quasi-liquidation. This will make liberals scream. Traditionalists may reasonably ask why mainstream finance even wants to dance with digital assets in view of the fact that this technology is still too bulky in scale to make quick payments and the price is too volatile to become a good store of value. However, the answer lies in the fact that there is still an interesting idea at the core of the encryption dream, that is, to transfer value by token and digital ledger, which is not necessarily liberal. After all, China countries are deeply authoritarian. Therefore, I predict that in the future, the idea of encryption will be gradually absorbed by financial institutions, and a small number of products, such as bitcoin, will be partially left in the square, which is mainly used as a hedging tool by investors, similar to digital gold. If so, the power will be vividly displayed. In history, the brothers in Silicon Valley often wavered between the central government of the tower and the people of the Internet in the square should pay attention to this. 比特币今日价格行情网_okx交易所app_永续合约_比特币怎么买卖交易_虚拟币交易所平台

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