Cake War即将到来 BNBChain上下一个10亿美元级DeFi协议随之诞生?

币圈资讯 阅读:38 2024-04-22 12:19:21 评论:0
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Cake War 可能给 BNB Chain 带来一个 TVL 1B 级别,FDV 100M 级别的类 Convex 项目,盘活生态。

Cake War 暗流涌动,BSC上下一个10亿美元级别 DeFi 协议或许即将诞生。参战方不但早已推出类似 Blast 的存币领空投活动,还会额外附赠IDO份额,Pendle War 中有的 IDO 已 10x 本 Thread 将为你带来 Cake War 的解读,参与方式及收益分析,并且授之以渔分析 xxx war 的预期收益如何判断。

首先声明,由于此前我们导演过 Pendle War ,不少社区朋友询问这次是否也是我们导演。这次还真不是,我们甚至还想分析批判一番他们的迷惑操作。不过 Cake 排面够大,Cake War 预期价值依然很高,还是写一篇分析收益的文章比较好,关键是我们也何必白教项目方做事。

本 Thread 将分成以下 4 部分:

A. Cake War 简介

B. Cake War 如何参与

C. Cake War 以及 xxx War 的收益如何预估

D. 总结

A. Cake War 简介

Cake 从糖浆池体系更新到了类似 Curve 的 veTokenomics,支持锁定 Cake 为 veCake boost LP 收益以及通过投票决定激励分配,为系统引入持续的贿赂收益,

所以自然便有了做 Cake 的类 Convex 项目去抢夺 veCake 份额的机会, 也就又了 Cake War。

其最大的差异化优势在于 Cake V3 这个类似 Uni V3 的 集中流动性池(CLAMM)。 目前 veTokenomics+ CLAMM 的 DEX 大多只支持 Gamma Stratigies 类 的托管仓位模式,简单来说就是项目方帮你部署和调整流动性。这对于无常损失很大的 CLAMM 其实并不是适合,经常越挖越亏,所以该类协议也没有做大。

而 Cake V3 是支持根据流动性的分布集中程度来给予相应激励的,可以让用户自由部署仓位,也就是说可以认为是纯粹的 Uniswap V3 代币经济加强版。 此外 Cake 也支持正常的 Uniswap V2 和 Curve V1 的交易模式,也可以容纳这两部分的需求,因此 Cake 可以承接住大部分类型的流动性采购需求。

B.Cake War 如何参与?

目前参战方共有三家:

1.Magpie推出的 subDAO 的Cakepie;

2.Equilibria团队的孵化的Skillet Finance;

3. War 参团率最高的Stake DAO;

4. 此前 Aura 团队推出的 Butter Finance,已宣布退出。

Cakepie 和 Skillet 早已推出了类似 Blast 的存币领空投活动,还会额外附赠IDO份额。Magpie 凭借此前 Penpie 的出色表现,加上支持此前已锁定的 Cake 转化,已成功为 Cakepie 募集到了超过 $6M Cake。 但是别先别着急梭哈,这个活动除了收益也有风险,请先看完下一部分再评估操作。

Cake War即将到来,BNBChain上下一个10亿美元级DeFi协议随之诞生?

Cake War即将到来,BNBChain上下一个10亿美元级DeFi协议随之诞生?

C. Cake War 以及 xxx War 的收益如何预估

先以上次Penpie为例,早期参与者通过 Pendle Rush 活动一共存了 4M Pendle,按当时 $0.4 单价算合计 $1.6M 空投了 200k PNP,以及 600k PNP IDO额度给到 Pendle Rush 用户,IDO FDV 3M,单价 $0.3,现价已涨10倍 $3.3。

早期参与者总收益高达 3.3*200+(3.3-0.3)*600 = $2.5M。这么看下来存 $1 Pendle 就能拿到 2.5/1.6= $1.6 160%的收益,即使按 Pendle本位算也有 60% 的收益,几个月就能拿到手了。另外如果持续持有参与生态的话 mPendle 和 vlPNP APR 都一度很高,毛估半年下来有个还能多个 20%。(Pendle War相关内容)

当然其中也有风险就是 depeg,即 Pendle Rush 转化为的 mPendle 不能 1:1 兑换回 Pendle。mPendle/Pendle 开盘仅为0.75, 后期通过锦囊妙计 peg 回升到稳定至 0.95(最近开 rush 活动又被套利下来了一点) 就是说可能会有 一定比例的本金损失,尤其是开盘着急走损失会更大。

我们复盘 xxx war 早期参与者收益计算的要素:

1. 参与者 TVL规模;

2. 空投份额;

3. IDO 分配份额,IDO FDV;

4. 预计总 FDV;

5. 退出损失/Depeg。

然而即便抛开计算过过于复杂不谈,目前 Cake War 参与方 IDO FDV 和 份额都尚未确定,所以自然也无法精确估算出数字,但是我们可以粗略估算下:

  • DeFi 协议估值一般依赖 TVL 和收入,而此类项目 TVL 与底层项目紧密相关,收入则和底层项目的排放有关。

  • Pancake TVL 是 Pendle 的 6倍,Cake 每日排放 $100k 大约是 Pendle 的2 倍左右,所以可以粗略估算 Cakepie FDV 在 Penpie 的 3倍左右。

如果其他要素跟上次相比差异不大,就是 Cakepie 大约能带来 Penpie 3*2.5M=$7.5M 的总收益,加上其他参与者的话,那么对于早期参与者总收益破千万U也许也是可以想想的。

当然,相比在我们精密组织下的 Pendle War,Cake War 的不确定要素很多,最后不如预期也是很有可能的,所以就不多吹了。

有这么多不确定因素,Magpie 凭借此前Penpie的帮社区赚钱的出色表现,已成功为Cakepie已募集到了超过 $6M Cake,这其实和 Blast 也颇为类似 。不同之处在于 Cake 转化活动是基本不可能 1:1 出来的,depeg 多少很看项目方的能力,所以没有信用背书的情况下新项目要起来更不容易。

Magpie 之前 subDAO 的模式已经跑起来一个 Penpie,社区对于Cakepie如何分蛋糕已心中有数,加上早存有 buff,所以自然吸引不少人冲。

最近支持了此前已锁定的 Cake 转化后就优势更大了,毕竟愿意参加 Rush 活动的多半是长期持有者,而这些人的 Cake 多半早已锁定。(相关内容)

对于Skillet Finance而言,则可以关注这个双重空投。根据目前已有的信心,大约是 EQB 团队将会成立一个母DAO(母公司),然后将 EQB 和 Skillet 这些子 DAO 装入母 DAO 下,并将母 DAO 的代币用于激励子 DAO 的扩张,这块细则还没有,可以关注看看能不能带来差异化的优势 ,从而获取 Alpha 收益。

Cake War即将到来,BNBChain上下一个10亿美元级DeFi协议随之诞生?

对于 StakeDAO 以及其他参与者而言,一方面需要关注其给出的福利细则,另一方面建议使用Defi Wars来分析其过往项目的 de-peg 情况,以充分评估收益和损失。

此前我们多次表示 DEX 的核心竞争力之一是 BD 能力,对于 veTokenomics 这种需要贿赂收益尤甚。 考虑到 Cake IFO 过去一年只有 Magpie 是盈利的,剩下多半接近归零,对于 Cake 自身而言,不必有太多期望。然而币安系的资源应该还可以有一些期望的 ,加上竞争者之间互相争,可以多给点关注。

D. 总结

1. Cake War 可能给 BNB Chain 带来一个 TVL 1B 级别,FDV 100M 级别的类 Convex 项目,盘活生态;

2. 早期参与者有望在短期内获得大量回报,但是需要注意de-peg 风险;

3. Cake War 的不确定要素仍较多,没法给出太明确的预期。


It may bring a level of similar projects, revitalize the ecological undercurrent, and the next billion-dollar agreement may be born soon. The combatants will not only launch similar activities of saving money and investing in airspace, but also give you an extra share. Some of them will already bring you an interpretation of the participation methods and income analysis, and how to judge the expected income of fishery analysis. First of all, we declare that because we have directed many community friends before, we asked if it was also our director this time, and we even want to analyze it this time. Criticize their confusing operation, but the arrangement is large enough, and the expected value is still high. It is better to write an article analyzing the benefits. The key point is why we should teach the project parties to do things for nothing. This paper will be divided into the following parts: how to participate and how to estimate the benefits. The introduction has been updated from the syrup pool system to similar support, locked into benefits, and decided to encourage distribution by voting to introduce continuous bribery benefits to the system, so naturally there will be opportunities for projects to grab shares. The biggest differentiation advantage lies in this similar centralized liquidity pool. At present, most of them only support the managed position mode. Simply put, the project side helps you deploy and adjust liquidity, which is not suitable for frequent digging and losing, so this kind of agreement is not big, but supports giving corresponding incentives according to the distribution and concentration of liquidity, which can allow users to freely deploy positions, that is to say, it can be considered as a pure enhanced version of token economy, and also supports normal. The sum trading mode can also accommodate the needs of these two parts, so it can undertake most types of liquidity procurement needs. How to participate in the incubation of teams launched by three warring parties at present? The team with the highest participation rate has announced its withdrawal and has already launched similar deposit-currency airspace investment activities, and additional shares will be given. With its outstanding performance and support, the previously locked-in transformation has successfully raised more than, but don't worry about it yet. This activity is in addition to the collection. There are risks as well as benefits. Please read the next part first, and then re-evaluate the operation. The next billion-dollar agreement will be born soon. The next billion-dollar agreement will be born soon, and how to estimate the benefits. Let's take the previous time as an example. Early participants have co-existed through the activity, and the total amount has been airdropped according to the unit price at that time. The current price of the quota has doubled. The total benefits of early participants are as high as this. Even if they are saved, some benefits will be available in a few months. In addition, if you continue to participate in the ecology, it is estimated that there will be a number of related contents after half a year. Of course, there are also risks, that is, you can't convert it back to the opening, but it will rebound to stability in the later stage through clever tricks, and it will be arbitraged a little bit, that is to say, there may be a certain proportion of principal loss, especially when you are in a hurry at the opening, and the loss will be even greater. The factors of participant income calculation in the early stage of our resumption are the size of participants, airdrops, shares and distribution shares are expected to withdraw altogether. However, even if the calculation is too complicated, regardless of the fact that the participants and shares have not yet been determined, it is naturally impossible to estimate the figures accurately. However, we can roughly estimate the general dependence and income of the agreement valuation, while the income of such projects is closely related to the emissions of the bottom projects. The daily emissions are about times, so we can roughly estimate the total income plus other parameters if other factors are not much different from last time. It may also be conceivable that the total income of early participants will exceed 10 million. Of course, compared with many uncertain factors under our precise organization, it is also very possible that they will not be as expected in the end, so we will not blow it up. There are so many uncertain factors that have been successfully raised by virtue of the outstanding performance of helping the community to make money before. In fact, it is quite similar. The difference is that the transformation activities are basically impossible, and it depends on the ability of the project side, so there is no credit endorsement. Under the circumstances, it is even more difficult for new projects to get up. The previous model has been running. A community has a good idea of how to divide cakes and has a long history, so it naturally attracts many people. After recently supporting the previously locked transformation, it has a greater advantage. After all, most of them are long-term holders who are willing to participate in the activities, and most of them have already locked in the relevant content. For me, they can pay attention to this double airdrop. According to the existing confidence, the team will set up a parent company and then will cooperate with these. The detailed rules of putting the child into the mother and using the mother's token for the expansion of the incentive child have not been paid attention to to to see if it can bring differentiated advantages and gain benefits. The next billion-dollar agreement will be born soon. For other participants, on the one hand, we need to pay attention to the welfare detailed rules given by them, on the other hand, we suggest using it to analyze the past projects to fully evaluate the benefits and losses. One of the core competitiveness we have said many times before is the ability to bribe the benefits. Especially considering that in the past year, only the rest of the profits were close to zero, there is no need to have too many expectations for themselves. However, the resources of the currency security department should still have some expectations, and competitors can compete with each other to pay more attention to the summary, which may bring a level of similar projects to revitalize the ecology. Early participants are expected to get a lot of returns in the short term, but there are still many uncertain factors that need to pay attention to risks and cannot give too clear expectations. 比特币今日价格行情网_okx交易所app_永续合约_比特币怎么买卖交易_虚拟币交易所平台

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