一文读懂四万的黎明静悄悄

币圈资讯 阅读:55 2024-04-22 12:07:31 评论:0
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不知不觉地,BTC已悄然摸上39.8k,距离4w刀仅有半步之遥。

这是黎明前的拂晓。

拂晓朔风悲,蓬惊雁不飞。

几时征戍罢,还向月中归。

这里的黎明静悄悄。

斯人已回,无语凝噎,只因没了仓位。

长长的波谷,只为再给没上车的人一个缘分,也为仓位成本高的人一个降低成本的机会。

曾经有一份2万刀以下的大饼摆在我的面前,我没有珍惜,等到失去的时候才后悔莫及,人世间最痛苦的事情莫过于此。如果上天能够给我一个重新来过的机会,我会对那个大饼说三个字:“八字诀”。如果非要给持有大饼加上一个期限,我希望是,一万年。

八字诀曰,坚持定投,逢跌加仓。

以趋势论,这一轮新牛市从2022年底触底之后就已经开始了。

1.6w刀的时候不知不觉。快4w刀时后知后觉。

教链曾说,天黑就出发。

如果天黑就出发,越走天越亮,谁都会有信心。

牛市途中,亦非坦途。

常常不乏40%甚至50%的回撤。

可是4w刀了,回撤40%便是32k,纵令回撤50%也不过20k。

去年底,教链展望2023,到年底时,25k乃是底部。

教链在1月份画了一个呼吸理论的图线。

2021-2022水上吸入多少,2022-2023水下就要呼出多少。

上图中绿色图线其实是2021-2022的牛市走势线颠倒过来放到水下而已。

实际上,上半年冲高没有4w那么高,年中回调也没有2w那么低。

实际走势更和缓。

曲线边际不影响积分面积。我们只要看呼吸气量,也就是面积对比。

呼气呼的差不多了,年终就要快速浮向水面。

呼气还有余量,那就年内还不会那么快到达甚至突破水面。

2024年初,预定的产量减半带来的供应冲击,即内因,和预计年初的ETF通过,以及一再提前预计在春天开启的美联储降息,即外因,相互叠加。

通常的认知,以为外因主导内因。

知晓矛盾规律,便知内因决定外因。

世事无常,亦无善恶、无利弊。因人有心,而心有欲,故生常,生善恶,生利弊。

于是老子说,“故常无欲,以观其妙;常有欲,以观其徼”。

于是阳明说,“心外无理,心外无物”。

内因便是常,是决定善恶、利弊的决定量。

无常遇一常或为善,遇另一常则或为恶;遇一常或化为利,遇另一常则或化为弊。

无常还是那个无常,而决定无常是善是恶,是利是弊的,却是那个常。

无常是变量,是英文variable。常是不变量,是英文constant。

无常不可测,而常可把握。

每21万个区块,区块奖励(即产量)便减少一半,就是BTC之一常。

心之生常,非心与欲可改变、影响、扭曲它,而是可以认知它。

知常而作,乃是认识世界并付诸实践的正确方法。

如老子所云,“夫物芸芸,各复归其根”,天下东西这么多,都有他们的根本逻辑,“归根曰静,是谓复命”,寻求到根本逻辑和不变量,这叫做回归本质,“复命曰常”,回顾本质就叫做常,“知常曰明”,认知到常就叫做明智,“不知常,妄作,凶”,对常没有认知,就胡乱操作一气,一定是凶险的。


Unconsciously, I have quietly touched the knife, which is only half a step away. This is the dawn before dawn. When will the wild geese stop flying? I will return to the dawn in the middle of the month. The people have returned to silence because they have lost their positions. The long trough is only for giving the people who didn't get on the bus a chance to reduce costs. There was once a pie below 10,000 yuan in front of me. I didn't cherish it until I lost it. The most painful thing in the world is to regret it. Here, if God can give me a chance to start all over again, I will say three words and eight characters to the pie. If I have to add a time limit to holding the pie, I hope it will be ten thousand years. I insist on a fixed investment, and I will add positions on every fall to the trend. This round of new bull market has already started to cut the knife since the bottom of the year. When I don't know it, I will be aware of it. The chain of education once said that if it is dark, I will start. If it is dark, it will get brighter, everyone will have confidence. On the way to the bull market, it will not Cutting back means pulling back vertically, but at the end of last year, when the teaching chain looks forward to the end of the year, it is the bottom teaching chain. In January, it drew a graph of breathing theory, and how much will be exhaled when the water is inhaled. The green graph in the above picture is actually the bull market trend line reversed and put it underwater. In fact, the first half of the year is not so high, and the callback in the middle of the year is not so low. The actual trend is more gentle, and the marginal curve does not affect the integral area. We just need to look at the breathing volume, that is, the area is compared with the exhalation. It It is necessary to quickly float to the surface of the water to exhale, and there is still room for it, so it will not reach or even break through the surface of the water so quickly in the year. The supply shock brought about by the halving of the scheduled output at the beginning of the year is the internal cause and the passage of the expected output at the beginning of the year, and the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut that is expected to start in the spring in advance. The usual cognition is that the external cause is dominant, and the internal cause knows the law of contradiction, so the internal cause determines that the external cause is impermanent, and there are no advantages and disadvantages. Therefore, Lao Tzu said that there is always no desire to see There is always a desire to see its beauty, so Yang Ming said that there is no thing outside the heart, and the internal cause is often the determinant of the pros and cons of good and evil. In case of impermanence, the output will be reduced by half, or in case of evil, it will be impermanent or that impermanence will determine whether impermanence is good, evil, good and bad, but that impermanence is a variable in English, an invariable in English, unpredictable and often predictable. It's the right way to know the world and put it into practice. As Lao Tzu said, everything goes back to its roots, so many things in the world have their fundamental logic. In the final analysis, quietness means returning to the essence, seeking the fundamental logic and invariants. It's called returning to the essence, recalling the essence, knowing the truth, knowing the truth, and knowing the truth. It's called being wise, not knowing the truth, being reckless, and not knowing the truth. It must be dangerous to operate at random. 比特币今日价格行情网_okx交易所app_永续合约_比特币怎么买卖交易_虚拟币交易所平台

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