观点:BTC破4万美元之后的下一阶段

币圈资讯 阅读:36 2024-04-22 12:06:45 评论:0
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原文作者:Rui,HashKey Capital 来源:X@YeruiZhang

长安回望绣成堆,山顶千门次第开(12月4号)

又是两周没写周报,工作忙的要死,各种年底的迎来送往浑浑噩噩,但所幸市场不错喝了一些汤,比特币4w之后说下下阶段的观点。

1. 趋势上ETF已成定局,但消息已经被基本Price in。自从10月24号第一次到35K之后BTC的动能变弱,博弈了几周感恩节前ETF是否通过,然后继续震荡,直到感恩节前后CME OI继续暴涨才把行情续上(CME至今溢价)。这一波拉升则更好玩,因为是非CME交易时间开拉,CME跳空高开,按照21年缺口必补的逻辑这里其实是个承压的点。CME而非币安成为了行情发动机。个人的理解是观察CME的实时数据和持仓周报,虽然有延后,但也是极好的参考指标。到这里行情很像是20年12月-1月,通过前很大概率有幺蛾子发生,主要是看有没有新的预期续上,如果没有则看好12月内会有一波回调,但从操作策略上来说现在应该关注的是BTC通过后的高度,也就是之前说的日线级别的操作(这个取决于个人的盯盘时间和风险偏好,如果风险偏好低的话我觉得需要考虑圣诞节前后的风险,甚至更早)。

2.山寨大部分都没有突破上一波38K时候的高度,但走出了一批非共识的标的,比如说Ordi,Luna系等等。之前总结的ETH defi和AI里AI也是靠着非共识标的Tao带动全局,交易所内标的Wld,Rndr反而没那么强。错了就认错,这里的Alpha或许是大叙事下的非共识标的甚至在链上1-10M的标的里掘金。具体标的方面我看CT说了很多,大多都不错做好Research就好,我因为看的项目过多知道太多黑历史反而束手束脚。最后,我是真玩不来比特币生态/铭文,大家多带带好吗。

3. 关于ETH和ETH衍生的行情,这里我的预期是ETF通过后到坎昆升级前后或许会更直接,当然不排除在12月底Btc如果出现一波回调后接力,具体取决于是不是有回调和回调的深度。具体标的方面在Ldo Staking率过高后LDO逐渐成为了ETH生态中的异类,从正统性的角度上弱了许多。这里就看正统性的RPL+OP vs 非正统的LDO + ARB那一批在ETH启动后的表现更好,我自己是buy in非正统。

3. 这里逐渐得开始关注新币的效应(注意不是币安的次新),从Flip到很多Gate/Mexc(平台币们表现都不错)的新标的都不错,一般到这个时候链上会出现几个顶级IDO项目。


The source of the original author Chang 'an looks back and embroiders thousands of times on the top of the mountain. The first month number is two weeks. I haven't written a weekly report. I'm so busy with my work. All kinds of year-end greetings are sent to a muddle, but fortunately, the market is good. After drinking some soup bitcoin, I said that the next stage of the view is a foregone conclusion, but the news has been basically weakened by the kinetic energy after the first arrival on the month. Whether it passed before Thanksgiving for a few weeks and then continued to fluctuate until it continued to skyrocket around Thanksgiving. This wave of premium has even increased. Funny, because the non-trading time is open, the gap is high, and according to the logic that the annual gap must be filled, this is actually a pressure point, not a currency security, which has become the market engine. Personal understanding is that the real-time data of observation and the weekly report of positions are also excellent reference indicators. The market here is very similar to that before the adoption of the year and month. There is a high probability of moth occurrence, mainly depending on whether there is any new expectation to continue. If not, there will be a wave of callback within the month, but from the operational strategy, what should be paid attention to now is communication. The height after that, that is, the operation at the daily line level mentioned before, depends on the individual's mark-to-market time and risk preference. If the risk preference is low, I think it is necessary to consider the risks around Christmas or even earlier. Most of the cottages have not broken through the height of the previous wave, but they have stepped out of a number of non-consensus targets, such as the department and so on. The sum summarized before is also driven by the non-consensus targets, but it is not so strong. If you are wrong, you will admit your mistake. Perhaps it is the non-consensus under the grand narrative. The target is even in the target of the chain. I have said a lot about the specific target of the nuggets. Most of them are good. Just do it well. I know too much about the black history because I watch too many projects. In the end, I really can't play with the bitcoin ecological inscription. Please bring more about the derivative market. My expectation here is that it may be more direct before and after the upgrade to Cancun. Of course, it does not rule out that if there is a wave of callback at the end of the month, the relay depends on whether there is a callback and the depth of the specific target. After the rate is too high, it has gradually become an alien in the ecology, which is much weaker from the perspective of orthodoxy. Here, we can see that the orthodox and unorthodox ones have performed better after starting. I am unorthodox myself. Here, we have to gradually pay attention to the effect of the new currency. It is not the second time that the currency is safe. From many platforms, the new targets that have performed well are all good. Generally, by this time, there will be several top projects in the chain. 比特币今日价格行情网_okx交易所app_永续合约_比特币怎么买卖交易_虚拟币交易所平台

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