比特币:无政治色彩的货币

币圈资讯 阅读:43 2024-04-22 12:03:20 评论:0
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文章作者:Brian Cubellis 文章编译:Block unicorn

比特币价格突破了4万美元,自2021年4月以来的最高水平,而黄金则正在创造新的历史最高纪录。对于这两者同时发生的情况,有许多合理的解释——市场对美联储在控制通货膨胀方面的能力缺乏信心,持续的货币贬值,不断增长的国家债务,利息支出不可持续的轨迹,逐渐增加的赤字,不断升级的地缘政治紧张局势,银行体系的脆弱性,以及对曾被视为“无风险”的资产现在既具有实质性价格风险又具有交易对手风险等等。

事实情况是,比特币和黄金最近的表现是这些因素的综合结果,所有这些因素都共享着共同的潜在因素。人们正在揭示底牌,交易对手风险正在得到更严格的评估。总体而言,个人、机构、公司、国家和各个层面的人都在意识到,将经济能量存储在不能被贬值、冻结、查封或由他们控制之外的力量占用的资产中,是保值到未来的最佳策略(比特币和黄金)。

经济学家Zoltan Pozsar(曾任瑞士信贷的成员)在2022年初写了一份具有预见性的报告,提出了新的世界货币秩序的开始(布雷顿森林体系III的诞生),并从“内部货币”向以商品为支撑的“外部货币”的转变。另一个观察这一新兴趋势的角度是对受政治化资产的日益厌恶,转而青睐完全非政治化的资产。在一个看似越来越令人怀疑当局和机构动机与政策的世界中,这些机构直接或间接影响资产估值,对于中立的、非国家的资产的支持案例变得更为强烈。

Block unicorn注释:内部货币,指的是由央行或政府背书支撑的货币;外部货币,指的是由实物、或类似黄金的大宗商品而支撑的货币。

比特币没有政治性质

比特币价值主张的一个基本组成部分来自其固有的中立性。比特币具有许多使其成为独特资产的属性,但其中最重要的之一是其非政治性。比特币没有中央发行机构,也不受任何统一的权威控制。类似于互联网作为一个分散网络运作,不受任何单一实体控制,比特币具有类似的基础。作为分布在全球数以万计的计算机上的开源软件,比特币固有的韧性是其基础结构的一个功能。

比特币的程序性质确保其货币政策不是由易受错误的人类或不断变化的地缘政治情绪决定的。相反,它植根于分散网络的共识。这种共识至关重要;这意味着对比特币协议的任何重大更改,包括其货币政策,都需要在庞大而多样的网络参与者中达成一致,增强了系统的韧性和稳定性。

此外,比特币的货币参数不仅仅是既定规则,而且被硬编码到协议中。其发行计划是经过编程的,是公开、已知和透明的。比特币总量永远只有2100万枚。每四年,由矿工创造和获得的新比特币数量减半,这一事件被称为“减半”。这种透明且可预测的稀缺性与传统法定货币形成鲜明对比,后者可以根据中央银行和政府的心情无限制地印刷货币。而中央计划者以过度印钞而稀释其货币的行为是众所周知的,比特币提供了一种明显的替代方案——一个由可预测和不可变的货币政策管理的清白储值资产。

政治的本质

现在常见的说法是,社会分歧和对立达到了历史上的最高点。在过去的几年里,一种持久的叙事是,“政治”已经嵌入生活的方方面面,作为人口,我们在各种主题和问题上从未如此分裂。

一方面,从历史的角度来看,这显然是错误的——很明显,这个国家和全球都存在着几个远远超过现代时代的极端意识形态分歧的实例。然而,值得探讨的是为什么今天感觉到有前所未有的极化水平。

虽然从绝对角度来看,我们可能并未达到社会分裂的巅峰,但现代时代固有的关键差异是对我们的差异和潜在政治动机的高度认识。互联网的出现,社交媒体的普及以及信息的广泛数字化使人类进入了一个前所未有的感官过载领域。

越来越紧密相连的全球格局使我们对不同的观点敏感,也让个人拉开了所谓的帷幕,揭示了几乎所有社会结构的政治化性质。实际上,组成社会的这些结构,如政府实体、公司和学术机构,一直以来都是政治化的,只是现在我们对各种激励因素有了更清楚的认识,并更有能力质疑或反驳这些机构所宣扬的主流叙事。

最终,政治是人类试图组织和管理自己的方式。当一个主题、问题、讨论或组织变得“政治化”时,这表明特定的意识形态和从属关系已经渗透到了先前中立或无政治倾向的主题中。从这个角度来看,政治化可以被视为对立和分歧的主要催化剂——特定的观点会出现,并自然以对立的力量形式表现出来。

不对齐的激励

虽然政治化是人类互动和协调的自然现实,但重要的是要了解,在某个社会结构上具有权力或影响力的人可能会被激励利用或剥夺其反对派或整个社会的权益。此外,值得考虑的是,社会的一些方面是否应该被视为无政治或中立。

那些在权力中的人——无论是在政府、商业还是学术界——通常有机会操纵系统以谋取自己的利益。这可以以不太明显的方式表现出来,比如通过媒体渠道塑造公众印象,或者以更明显的形式表现出来,比如实施不成比例地有利于特定群体的政策。当政治信仰渗透到通常被视为公正或非政治的领域时,这种剥削的可能性往往会上升。

货币可能是政治注入可能产生深远影响的领域中最重要的例子。几千年来,人类团结在一种无政治的货币形式——黄金——周围,这种货币受到它作为货币的经济本质的支配,而不受政治计划的影响。然而,自从无担保的法定货币的创造和传播以来,货币政策不再免于政治化影响。操纵利率、通过监管限制自由市场或随意贬值货币的能力通常受到政治动机的影响,而不是纯粹的经济考虑。

不断加剧的不平等、对金融机构信任的侵蚀以及广泛的经济不稳定主要是由于我们的货币体系被用作政治收益而不是整个社会的经济福祉的工具。这些因素不仅影响一个国家的经济健康,还促成了我们今天所看到的分裂和极化。

传统资产的政治化

现代金融格局中,政治因素与传统储值资产融合达到前所未有的程度。由于地缘政治紧张局势,俄罗斯财政储备在美国遭到查封突显了一个鲜明的现实——国家和国际政策可以直接影响传统金融工具的安全性和稳定性。这种政治化不仅局限于主权资产。传统上被视为市场驱动估值堡垒的公共股权领域,现在发现自己越来越卷入社会、环境和治理(ESG)指导方针的纷争。

另一个政治因素渗透到金融资产领域的显著例子是2022年初的加拿大卡车司机事件,抗议者的银行账户被加拿大政府冻结。这种对个人意见和行动采取的苛刻回应,引发了对金融系统可靠性以及政府在民主社会中可能干预的问题。

这些发展显示了一个更广泛趋势——简而言之,金融资产的价值和稳定性越来越容易受到政治氛围和监管立场的影响。这种政治化的含义包括对个人和利益相关者的贬值和失去自治的风险。与传统金融资产的政治化性质相反,比特币代表了一种独特的无政治替代方案。基于去中心化和透明的框架,比特币独立于中心化的金融机构和政治实体之外运作。比特币之所以与众不同,不仅是因为它的技术特点,更是因为它故意设计成独立于中心化机构和政治影响力,体现了对金融自主权和抗拒集中化趋势的坚定信念。

尽管比特币基于无政治立场,但它却引起了政界人士的关注和支持,他们将其视为应对全球金融体系集中化力量的工具。杰维尔·米莱伊(阿根廷新当选总统)和罗伯特·F·肯尼迪小组(即将到来的美国总统选举中领先的独立候选人)等杰出的倡导者在比特币的抵制控制和操纵方面达成了共识。这一发展呈现出一个有趣的悖论——政界人士推崇一种本质上无政治的资产。一方面,比特币的设计和理念直接与中央集权和政治化相对立。另一方面,比特币已成为政治人物展示对自由和个人主权理念承诺的象征。

政界人士对比特币的倡导浪潮源于对其核心特性的认知和赞赏,这些特性促进了自由、自治和对中央权力滥用的抵抗。尽管政治人物可以利用比特币来讨好那些对传统金融体系感到幻灭的民众,但现实是,他们的倡导对网络或资产本身没有影响。无论这些政治人物的支持是否真正与比特币的理念相一致,还是仅仅是为了赢得人民群体的支持而进行的战略举措,这一趋势都是显著的,并有可能持续下去。

这意味着随着越来越多的人认识到比特币的优势,对它的需求将继续增加,而这正是一场货币革命的开始。在这场变革中,你不需要在选票箱里投票,而是用你辛苦挣来的货币单位来表达对比特币的支持。


The price of bitcoin has exceeded the highest level of US$ 10,000 since January, while gold is setting a new record. There are many reasonable explanations for the simultaneous occurrence. The market lacks confidence in the Fed's ability to control inflation. The continuous devaluation of the currency, the increasing interest payments on national debt, the unsustainable trajectory, the increasing deficit and the fragility of the banking system, which was once regarded as windless. The risky assets now have both substantial price risk and counterparty risk, and so on. The fact is that the recent performance of Bitcoin and gold is the comprehensive result of these factors, all of which share the same potential factors. People are revealing that the counterparty risk is being more strictly evaluated. Generally speaking, individuals, institutions, companies, countries and people at all levels are aware of storing economic energy in assets that cannot be depreciated, frozen and seized or occupied by forces beyond their control. Bitcoin and gold economists, once members of Credit Suisse, wrote a prophetic report at the beginning of the year, proposing the beginning of a new world monetary order, the birth of the Bretton Woods system and the transformation from internal currency to external currency supported by commodities. Another angle to observe this new trend is that they are increasingly disgusted with politicized assets and turn to favor completely depoliticized assets. In a seemingly increasingly doubtful situation, the motives of the authorities and institutions are. In the world of policy, these institutions directly or indirectly affect asset valuation, and the case of supporting neutral non-state assets becomes more intense. Internal currency refers to the currency supported by the endorsement of the central bank or the government, and external currency refers to the currency supported by physical objects or commodities similar to gold. Bitcoin has no political nature, and a basic component of its value proposition comes from its inherent neutrality. Bitcoin has many attributes that make it a unique asset, but the most important one is it. First, its non-political bitcoin has no central issuer and is not controlled by any unified authority. It is similar to the Internet, which operates as a decentralized network and is not controlled by any single entity. Bitcoin has a similar foundation. As an open source software distributed on tens of thousands of computers around the world, its inherent resilience is a function of its infrastructure. The procedural nature of Bitcoin ensures that its monetary policy is not determined by error-prone human beings or changing geopolitical emotions. On the contrary, it is rooted. The consensus on decentralized networks is very important, which means that any major changes to the Bitcoin protocol, including its monetary policy, need to be agreed among the huge and diverse network participants, which enhances the resilience and stability of the system. In addition, the monetary parameters of Bitcoin are not only established rules, but also hard-coded into the agreement, and its distribution plan is programmed to be publicly known and transparent. The total amount of Bitcoin will always be only 10,000, and the number of new bitcoins created and obtained by miners will be halved every four years. This event is called halving. This transparent and predictable scarcity is in sharp contrast with the traditional legal tender, which can print money without restriction according to the mood of the central bank and the government. It is well known that the central planner dilutes its currency by overprinting money. Bitcoin provides an obvious alternative. The essence of an innocent stored-value asset politics managed by a predictable and unchangeable monetary policy is now commonly said that social differences and oppositions have reached the highest level in history. In the past few years, a lasting narrative is that politics has been embedded in all aspects of life. As a population, we have never been so divided on various topics and issues. On the one hand, from a historical point of view, this is obviously wrong. It is obvious that there are several examples of extreme ideological differences in this country and the world that far exceed the modern era. However, it is worth discussing why we feel an unprecedented level of polarization today, although we may not have reached social points from an absolute point of view. The pinnacle of crack, but the key difference inherent in modern times is a high understanding of our differences and potential political motives. The emergence of the Internet, the popularity of social media and the extensive digitization of information have enabled mankind to enter an unprecedented sensory overload field. The increasingly closely connected global pattern has made us sensitive to different views and opened the so-called curtain for individuals, revealing the politicized nature of almost all social structures, such as government entities, companies and academics. Institutions have always been politicized, but now we have a clearer understanding of various incentive factors and are more capable of questioning or refuting the mainstream narrative advocated by these institutions. Ultimately, politics is the way that human beings try to organize and manage themselves. When a topic is discussed or the organization becomes politicized, it shows that specific ideology and subordination have penetrated into previously neutral or non-political topics. From this perspective, politicization can be regarded as the main urging of opposition and disagreement. Specific views of chemical agents will appear and naturally show misaligned incentives in the form of opposing forces. Although politicization is a natural reality of human interaction and coordination, it is important to understand that people with power or influence in a certain social structure may be motivated to use or deprive their opponents or the rights and interests of the whole society. In addition, it is worth considering whether some aspects of society should be regarded as apolitical or neutral. Those who are in power are usually organic, whether in government, business or academia. Will manipulate the system to seek their own interests, which can be manifested in less obvious ways, such as shaping the public impression through media channels or in more obvious forms, such as implementing policies that are disproportionately beneficial to specific groups. When political beliefs penetrate into areas that are usually regarded as just or non-political, the possibility of such exploitation often rises. Money may be the most important example in areas where political injection may have a far-reaching impact. For thousands of years, human beings have United in a non-political situation. The monetary form around gold is dominated by its economic essence as a currency and is not influenced by political plans. However, since the creation and spread of unsecured legal tender, monetary policy is no longer free from politicization. The ability to manipulate interest rates, restrict the free market through supervision or devalue the currency at will is usually influenced by political motives rather than purely economic considerations. The increasing inequality erodes the trust of financial institutions and widespread economic instability is mainly due to the fact that our monetary system is used as a tool for political gains rather than the economic well-being of the whole society. These factors not only affect one. 比特币今日价格行情网_okx交易所app_永续合约_比特币怎么买卖交易_虚拟币交易所平台

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